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Addicks Fan 1981 I wouldn't be at all surprised if Tams got sick of having her missives unfairly dissected, if not ridiculed; not by you, of course, but by those who should know better.

The last two GFS runs are playing with the idea of a waft of very warm/hot air to our south-east as we enter May but with low pressure nearby as always. The 12z shows the risk of the Atlantic sweeping it away and remaining cool whereas the 6z was more of a unstable scenario with warm air aloft on an easterly for a time, but the risk of cloud and rain also and perhaps thunder. Warm air surging northeastwards with already weak pressure in place is a recipe for low pressure so I expect unsettled conditions to persist into early May. Whether it's of the cool and breezy kind or warm and thundery kind is unknown. I wouldn't be surprised if a few hot runs pop up. What with the similarities to 1998 I've talked about I wouldn't be all that surprised if warmer weather arrives soon. Regardless, both low pressure dominated scenarios can be quite convective.

raz.org.rain I do remember thinking in like Feb ‘at least this spring can’t be as bad as the last one’ A cautionary tale to never tempt fate.

At the moment, part of southern Finland has received more than 30 cm of new snow and more is coming all the time, it was already 0 cm. Last night/evening it rained a lot of supercooled water. I can't remember the last time I saw this late in the year.

We all know what will win out instead....

Probably more cloud than sun here in the end; Especially this afternoon when sun has been at a premium. A cold wind has sprung up again. Not brilliant but okay.

Decent enough April day from the off though quite cool in the breeze

A bit cloudier than forecast but at least it's remaining dry this side of the Pennines for the next few days, although it's now back to feeling bitterly cold under the overcast skies in the NEly wind. Hoping that some-time over the next few weeks the first of the Spanish Plume's brings some warmer temps and thunderstorm potential.

I can see a cheeky 15 degrees popping up in my weather app towards day ten. That would be exciting in early February

It turned out okay in the end, still cool & breezy with some light showers across the Eastern Moors when I was having a short wander around the Bronze-Age relics at Barbrook but this Western side of the Peak District has gotten more of the sunshine for the day.

moochops Yes, I've managed a few hours out tidying up outside, been moss scraping, it's all over everything, ornaments, tubs, sides of walls. Need a good back rub now. 4 days now April has produced a dry day that is usable. Brightness came late afternoon. Pink moon tonight, named by N Americans, pink because of a wild pink flower called phlox covering the ground, indicative that spring has sprung.

Way better than forecast. That high is hanging on for dear life today. Never the less, copious amounts of strong mid-spring sunshine, a light breeze & temps around average. A welcome day after yesterday.

Addicks Fan 1981 to be fair, teleconnections analysts were given a lot of hell back in winter. I wouldn't be surprised if they're not interested in coming back.

MisfitDog3 Cooler spring weather is fine and pleasant if its also accompanied by plenty of sunshine and plenty of dry, crisp weather. April 2021 was a great example of this. This Spring is certainly not that! I don't think I've seen any frosts in my area this entire Spring, and as for sunshine, we're on another below-average month (no surprises there), with above average rainfall also (again, no surprises). It's just more of the same dull, drizzly fare we've had for months now, but with a bit more daylight hour. Reality is though, approaching the half-way point of the year and getting days with with colder max / high temps than nearly the entirety of Winter just gone, is genuinely laughable.

0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 30 Apr (day 7) 0z ensemble means, out to Wed 8 May (day 15) It is as yet far from clear that the ridging activity that is evident from the Azores high in the first week of May is going to reach the shores of Britain... it currently seems that more ensemble members are going for it pushing up unhelpfully to our west instead... We have now entered the four month period of the year with the best solar input... my frustration levels rapidly increase if we don't see favourable synoptic patterns during this precious time!

Yes, pleasant blue sky dry start, 6.8°C 8am. I'm still putting my heating on first thing to take out the early morning chill, is everybody else getting by with any heating on yet?

The first chink of daylight starting to appear when I got up at 4.45 this morning so even though the weather might still think it’s winter, summer is definitely on its way. just hope it doesn’t forget to bring its mates sunny, dry and warm with it.

Not very often we see a low pressure system romp so triumphantly west from Scandinavia through the UK and Ireland to the Atlantic, as here on the 12z UKMO but there are some very intricate handovers of pockets of low heights that drive the whole process and give it some considerable elegance. The first pocket drops south to join the Scandinavian low at day 2, deepening it. The second drops out of the trough at the tip of Greenland at day 3, joining the melee at day 4 and drawing the system west over the UK and Ireland for the weekend. Thanks A third pocket drops southeast via the same route at day 6, pulling the system west out over the Atlantic. Looks like an “atmospheric” weekend awaits to round off this very mixed April, ripe for savoury evening treats washed down with a sumptuous glass or three of your favourite ale or wine. The late spring fitness effort can wait until some suitable conditions are laid on. And from there, let’s grab all the potential silver linings. Though not seemingly immediately on offer, there are at least some emerging signs that this remarkable retrogression, as a part of wider adjustments occurring within the generally very static hemispheric pattern, might eventually lead to sufficiently consistent heights building over the near continent to bring us a better chance of some warmer interludes as May progresses.

Ground finally dry enough to roll again this evening but the north wind is very cold.

SunnyG I wish I could. My mate relocated to Dijon for work about six years ago - and although that’s not right down south, it still enjoys much better weather than here. Whenever I ask him if he’s thinking of coming back he laughs like a maniac.

Cloudy and glimpses of sun this morning… cloudier in poynton and Cheadle Hulme this lunchtime but sunny since 3pm when we got back home… even being away Friday to yesterday can noticeably see the amount of growth in plant pots and vegetation over last four days… chilly mornings and felt warmer in the sunshine today despite the breeze… is it actually going to stay dry until Sunday???

I've had a stiff cup of tea and a couple of nurofen, done the trick.

Not just me then. That moss is everywhere. Tough stuff too. Can't help you with the back rub, sorry

Here in South Manchester it was mainly cloudy all morning. A cold breeze too. Spent 5 hours jet-washing the patio. I had wellies on but my feet were freezing. Typically the sun came out as I was packing everything away........

Methuselah Tamara is a great miss on this thread. I loved her indebth analysis.

Meanwhile over in the NE it feels like Winter again thanks to a strong northerly wind pegging temperatures to 7.5c whilst accompanied by a few light rain showers and the briefest of sunny intervals. Back lawn still barely growing and thus has still to get the first cut of the year, and its May a week tomorrow!

Pretty much at my wit's end tbh. It's like living inside a tupperware box dripping with condensation. We haven't had a 'Spring' this year, and it looks like it'll be well into May before we see anything remotely settled, sunny and warm. So that's 2 years on the trot, because 2023 was also effectively Springless until very far into May (the end of May for me in the SE). If its somehow possible, 2024 is actually panning out even worse than 2023, which is actually quite impressive considering the bar for last Spring and last year in general is so low, its buried 10 feet into the dirt. 2023-24 has been a real eye-opener for me about the realities of living in this climate in its current iteration - having to wait until nearly halfway into the year to obtain a few scraps of consistent sunshine, dryness and warmth, is just no way to live life, unless your sense of fulfilment solely comprises reaching a book whilst listening to the rain smack the window, watching TV with the lights on at 2pm in late April (because its so dark outside), and playing in puddles. Seeing as winter is more-or-less non-existent now, we spend 8-9 months of a year wallowing in the same dull, wet, depressing 8/9c-13/14c conditions, waiting for the May to Sept period to land and potentially deliver something more uplifting. I say 'potential', because during that 3-4 month period, dry, sunny and warm weather only occurs a few weeks in total (if that). Indeed, a big chunk of that May-Sept period can very easily be dross too, but at least the grey lasts longer and the rain is warmer, eh. It's honestly no wonder that people of the British Isles became such avid seafarers, and that their seafaring was generally focused towards places with sunny, tropical, colourful climates. A desire to seek colours other than grey undoubtedly seeped into the national psyche. A pessimistic post, admittedly, but I'm utterly defeated seeing as my health issues are going to be worse a second-year running due to the weather conditions, regardless of how many Vitamin D tablets I pop.

What a crackerjack of a day it is. A few puffy clouds nothing major. Pretty warm too. Lovely jubbly!

B87 You're right about grass browning/yellowing off in summer. It's not "nonsense". Especially for SE and Southern England. It's happened nearly every year I can remember since my young childhood. Playing in the local parks with my friends during school summer holidays...the grass would always be a bit "straw like" come late July / early August. It bounces back near immediately after summer. Perfectly normal and signs of an actual summer season. Last summer was the only year in my life where grass in my garden and local area has basically zero yellowing. Which, obviously, is indicative of the type of high summer we had (or lack thereof).

The amount of times over the past few months there’s been “signs of a change in a couple of weeks”! If only I were a betting man…….

Horror show pattern into early May on tonight’s GFS 18z…. takes one back to 2007-2012. The N Atlantic/Greenland blocking is difficult to shake off in spring with polar vortex out the picture.

Cambrian is that techspeak for ‘more rain dear, get that logburner lit’?

Oh, and I found some photos I took in Hyde Park, late July 2015...

Rush2019 I didn’t but my nieces work colleague and friend did… she cheered her on from three spots… we met up with my niece afterwards and said she’d completed it in a good time… saw lots of peeps that had run it afterwards.. Stayed in Marylebone and had good walk around Little Venice and Camden Sunday…had lovely brunch around corner from where we stayed called cafe leville on the Regents canal Ukv can do one

moochops I can but live in hope

WillinGlossop Did you see any of the London Marathon? UKV has rain moving in on Friday.

No.

Patchy cloud here too. Feels ok when sun is out but a cool Northerly breeze in the shade. 11C but feels colder.

No it isn't. It didn't even happen in 2013, let alone mixed bags like 2016. Yellow/brown grass means it's been hot and dry for a prolonged period. 2018 was the first time it happened since 2006. You'd probably have to go down to southern France for it to be a normal or expected occurence. Yellowed grass is the hallmark of a very hot and dry summer here, only climate deniers in my experience seem to think it should be a normal occurence. It honestly seems like you think a normal summer in the SE should be like southern France. I think you may be operating at about 50 years ahead of schedule.

I didn't think we could get a worse spring than 2023, but 2024 is doing just that. March was as bad as 2023. April will end up far worse as we won't even get to April 2023s sunshine total if we have unbroken sun for the rest of the month. May 2023 was dreadful for the first 17 days, though I fully expect May 2024 will manage to be worse. Our normal spring climate should have at least a few rainless and sunny weeks, yet the last couple of springs have produced nothing. Some people seem to think the normal climate is closer to Bergen than to the UK, and no doubt will be complaining when we do get a well overdue week of sun and 25s.

In Absence of True Seasons Indeed. April 2010 and 2017 also had a lot of cool but dry and often bright conditions that were better than the cool/dull/wet alternative. Looking through recent runs, it doesn't seem to matter which direction the weather is coming from, 'trough' is the word for this country. Very stubborn cyclonic conditions in these parts with varying degrees of cool or warmer. Not unheard of at this time of year but very disappointing and definitely not helping the yearning for something more seasonal. I'm taking a trip to southern Spain in the first full week of May so expect models to pick up on high pressure moving into the UK during that time...

Perfect summer - 3 months of around 23-27°C every day, above average sunshine throughout, frequent thunderstorms and the occasional heavy frontal rainfall event. Of course, it won’t happen

I just hope we don't have an absence of a happy middle ground between this dross and the inevitable "Unpleasant 35C+ from nowhere heatwave" that we will inevitably get in the summer.

Bats32 This Spring reminds me of what Spring was in the 70's and 80's. There was an expectation that cooler weather and frost risks could continue right into May. Personally, I love it but there are obviously other views out there. The pattern looks to be somewhat stuck. It makes it interesting in terms of seeing where it goes from here and the models appear to be struggling with that.

And still it is raining! and the wind up again. The spinning on a coin is what is driving me mad, there’s no possibility of consistency in temperature. No one expects consistency in weather. Rain, sun, wind from one day to another in this country is a given, but is it too much to expect at this time of year some levelling out of temperature? Yes, May next week! Am resorting to reading the model threads to see when the jet stream might feel like shifting….am I losing my sanity?

Weather Enthusiast91 If the grass isn't totally brown and dead in the summer, then we will have had too much rain.

Dull, cold, grey and miserable. Me and the weather both.

Bats32 yep lovely, it's felt warm in the sun Don't look at the GFS for Saturday though... 3-5c with cold rain and sleet

One of those occasions which is most likely to occur in the second half of Spring than any other time of year, when much of Cumbria sees the best English conditions, Wales, N Ireland and West Scotland often the same. Thanks to the influence of high pressure to the west, we received virtually nil traces of rain from the warm front, it was all to our east, and today we have sat in a dry spot, albeit cloudy, but also quite bright, high level cloud, no wind and pleasant temps close to 14 degrees. Always say mid April to late June best time to visit Lake District!