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Showing content with the highest reputation on 29/03/24 in all areas

  1. 12 points
  2. Worth just mentioning I think how remarkable (in a negative way, if you want dry weather!) recent weather patterns have been. Here is the NCEP reanalysis chart for March sea level pressure so far. We're over 10mb below the average. Absolutely ridiculous. At the centre of a giant blob of low. Next, all of February and March combined. Still 8mb below average. It genuinely isn't an exaggeration to say that we've been having probably the most unsettled weather in the entire Northern Hemisphere since the start of February. And since I have a feeling someone would ask for this one if I didn't post it, here is the sea level pressure since the start of July 2023. Again, the UK and Ireland amongst the most unsettled places in the entire Northern Hemisphere. This is why I find it hard to believe this pattern will go on much longer, having had a look at this. We can't keep on being target practice for the most unsettled conditions in the entire Northern Hemisphere. At some point, the larger scale pattern will change.
    8 points
  3. Convective Outlook️ Widespread 50+ J/K of 3CAPE should allow for some widespread shower and storm activity to form throughout Friday, mainly in the afternoon. Fairly strong buoyancy in areas but mostly modest should allow for some stronger storms to form, mainly in the west moving towards the NE later, along with Ireland but still sporadic lightning appears more likely, given there's less epicentres of energy. With weak deep-layer shear, upscaling is unlikely and Supercell potential is quite weak. So should mostly be single cell modes, scattered through a lot of the country. Generally seems unsupportive of severe modes but hail may be a possibility and still a fairly blustery day. Though likely not that stronger under the showers. Any potential organisation or the best chance of a Supercell appears to be in the northeast with the strongest of the PV lobes. Along with fairly strong 3CAPE.
    7 points
  4. My report for Church Stowe WWW.BBC.CO.UK Church Stowe, Northamptonshire Largest hail I've seen for March
    7 points
  5. Some brilliant cloudscapes the last few days. I don’t mind this sort of unsettled. Nice big anvil spreading to my west.
    6 points
  6. iand61 Yes 2 good days, and 2 average ones will be a good strike rate.. I think we have come lucky with a semi break in the persistantly unsettled weather coinciding with the 4 day easter period. Today probably the worse of the 4 from a rain perspective, but of shower variety some may escape dry.
    6 points
  7. All calm on the western front so far, but clouded over since 9am. 5.2 mm rain for the last 24hrs -- not much, but all adds to the deep slutch in the fields, specially as there's not much drying today.
    6 points
  8. Lovely sunny start in the northern lakes
    6 points
  9. Morning. Looks like a mixed bag ahead, rain, hail, T and L? Nice here for now, just tipped over 7°C, grey and overcast but the sun keeps trying to burst through. We are long overdue a decent dry spell. Man Airport outlook today.
    6 points
  10. Well the clocks go forward Saturday night, well at least that's one hours less rain....!
    6 points
  11. Dry start but the forecast doesn’t offer much hope of it staying that way throughout the day. looking better tomorrow and Sunday although no doubt the weather gods will be leaving no stone unturned to give our region the lions share of any rain on offer but given the relentless crap of the last few months, even a decent two days out of the four would be a good effort, certainly for anyone with outside plans.
    6 points
  12. It's rather clear now that this synoptic possibility quoted above that I deemed slightly lower likelihood around 40% is closer to the mark for the second week of April. Wetter conditions continuing, especially further south and then western UK later on, confidence rating in this being 70% A widespread drying trend from the northwest is less likely now for week 2 of April as a whole, would deem this 10% Upto 10-11th April, but still expect possible further wintry showers/longer spells of wintry precipitation on occasion in north and still it overall looks less wet than south at first, the wetter conditions favour the northwest/west for a time later week 2. Potentially still warmer by mid April in the south as the blocking shifts around slightly with a southwest to northeast elongated trough/areas of low pressure over us and especially to our west/southwest with higher pressure still over close to Greenland, heights also build to our southeast over central Europe but any drier than average spell over the UK and northwest Europe most likely from end of week 2 at the earliest, most likely for far north/ and or the south/southeast of England if it where to happen but the signal only loosely favouring a proper drying trend by then for now, with unsettled weather the main theme before then. Causing potentially large rainfall totals. Take care.
    6 points
  13. Showers have developed widespread now west of King's lynn at 1.45pm
    5 points
  14. A dry, even bright start but dark clouds already building up and expecting showers soon. In fact, as I post, I think the first shower has arrived!
    5 points
  15. Happy Easter All! Not too bad out there, fish & chips later . I've only eaten and replaced about 10 family eggs in the lead up to this weekend haha! Anyways, Ciao for now.
    5 points
  16. A sunny start to the day ,so far so good and hopefully a sunny weekend ,Happy Easter to all
    5 points
  17. I presume this first bit of sunshine will start to pop things up nicely...
    5 points
  18. Good news I only count 8 separate low pressures affecting the uk on this mornings gfs run….yesterday it was 9!
    5 points
  19. Largest hail on record for the UK in the month of March it seems today!
    5 points
  20. Great anvil from those cells near Grimsby, hopefully a sign of things to come.
    4 points
  21. Not much going on so far, just a few showers about. Group of showers that passed through here earlier: Could also see the more intense cell which passed over Telford just after midday:
    4 points
  22. Metwatch thanks here's some more less interesting images and videos PXL_20240328_180651197~3.mp4 PXL_20240328_180254489~2.mp4 PXL_20240328_181045314~2.mp4
    4 points
  23. Well the hail finally got me! Surprised I couldn't hear thunder given how heavy it was. Didn't see any mammatus once it passed either, (I think Coventry is immune to mammatus at this rate ) but looks like others caught it from further north / west of here. YouCut_20240328_182933867.mp4 Some CG's around Leighton Buzzard from that line of storms:
    4 points
  24. Although I formerly closed my output to this thread 8 days ago, I thought it worthwhile coming back for a further update as the sea ice continues to 'misbehave' itself and will not fall in extent the way it should!!! I will start off by showing the Masie extent graph - As you can see, it is refusing to go down this year. In fact the last 3 days (after an increase of +108K Km2) have hovered just below my arbitrary 15M Km2 line (latest at 14,986K Km2). The last 3 days have in fact been rounded up to 15M |KM2, but I do not count those!! The recent events have now put a gap of 800.000 KM2 between it and its challenger (2022-23) for much of the season, and is way above average for the time of year. As a result of a recently released paper and post (video on the paper) on the changing and reducing AMOC effect and its predictions for its effects on Arctic ice and Northern Hemisphere weather in general (link below, and see the forum on Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures if the link does not work') - I thought I would show a few graphs of the regions it highlights as being prone to increases in view of a reduced inflow from the Atlantic (the AMOC effect) into the Arctic region - 1) Barents 2) Greenland Baltic 3) Bering - 4) SOO - As can be seen all have spent sometime above the 10 year highs within the last 4 weeks as the melt season started, and all are currently running very high. In fact the Barents is quite remarkable that it has grown by around 200K KM2 in the last 2weeks and it is this that has kept the record high extents ongoing. Even the Bering is still increasing, albeit from a lower base. I have included this chart from the ASIF to make a final point. One of the few years that has shown a similar effect was 2012 where the increases carried on for a further week, before starting to fall. Now the downside of all this is that 2012 went on to become the lowest year so far recorded, That however was caused by the very unusual weather and atmospheric situation which followed in July and August (the GAC - Great Arctic Cyclone) which destroyed a lot of the outlaying ice. So what will happen? Is this new paper relevant to the Arctic sea ice? I have assumed that, so far, most of the unscripted changes were due to the ENSO/PDO and perhaps the Hunga Tunga volcano, but perhaps we must also add in the changing AMOC. Do we in fact have a new driver in the race to record the first Blue Ocean Event (BOE) -a method of describing an ice free Arctic. Or perhaps this positive 'twist' might delay the event even further out in time. The other interesting thing about this is that potentially the weather we are seeing 'at home' is also being affected by the changes in the Arctic. Next episode?.... MIA
    4 points
  25. Got a line of washing dry this morning. And now first spots and some driving hail have just arrived.
    3 points
  26. Brief heavy shower coming back over the tops from Burnley but sunny again now. that’s as bad as it gets.
    3 points
  27. I don’t care, I just every day from now until mid October to be dry, sunny and as far above average as is possible. It’s just miserable.
    3 points
  28. We've got a power flush on our gas combi boiler today. Our boiler is prone to scaling up with metal corrosion more often than a typical boiler, annoyingly. I suggested to the gas man that we could look at an air source heat pump next time, and replace the system. He said categorically, that it simply won't be suitable with our current technology, even though our house is only 25 years old. So despite my intentions, i can't realistically get off gas. My work firm is trialling electric vans in a few areas which are ultra urban, but the idea seems to be completely at odds with the reality of rural parts of the firm, such as ours, where we need 3.5 tonne (4.25 with batteries) vehicles to travel at least 300 miles, in cold winter weather, per day. The vehicles being trialled only do 130 miles on a 7 hour charge. Despite the good intentions of my firm, they can't realistically get off diesel. This is the reality I see in my daily life, and I can't see a way forward, despite a genuine interest in humans cleaning up our act, unless some workable solutions are presented on a massive scale. In terms of attitude, this reality definitely affects my attitude towards climate change, because there's nothing I can do with the 'big hitters' of heating and transport. I can't even use an electric car because our parking area is very far from the house.
    3 points
  29. I’ve nothing new to add to this thread this morning but I am posting to say how very enjoyable and interesting I have found this discussion to be. Every member has a slightly different, but equally valid and arguably correct view of the present challenges facing the human race and the various proposed solutions and forecasts are all fascinating to read. My thoughts this morning are that if only we had some people in positions of power around the world who showed even half the intelligence and commitment to a better future for the planet that the people on this website do, we might hope for some really positive action. Unfortunately, it’s not going to happen, is it.
    3 points
  30. convection is just starting to kick in here. 11.6c rising Humidity: 83% dew point: 10.2c. Looking up north there is some convection although there are some clouds blocking In the photo this is the best picture I have
    3 points
  31. Alderc 2.0 By the time we get a pattern change, it will be new years eve again! Lol. Hoping for a 2018 switch around.
    3 points
  32. Don't think I've seen sea this blue before:
    3 points
  33. If your idea has ec 46 backing then it's probably not going to verify
    3 points
  34. Can we count this down from week 4, any takers? The low finally drops out to our west. My abrupt flip prediction for around mid-month could yet come off if we see the transition somewhere towards the end of week 3? Anyway, in all seriousness this is far beyond the reliable, but it's about as much hope as I can muster up at the moment - the promise of something better in week 4. You just have to laugh. EDIT: worth mentioning that this sort of idea also has the EC46's backing. We lose the mean trough signal around the 15th-22nd: And then we have a positive height anomaly for the 22nd-29th:
    3 points
  35. 2 points
  36. 2 points
  37. WYorksWeather 'Some point' may be in 5 years' time, for all we know.
    2 points
  38. Last night was ridiculous. My wife, son and the other kids training at Bedford track had to come in due to a thunderstorm. I had to hide under the ring road in Luton as the squall line came through. Wish I’d recorded it. Like a watered down version of folk hiding from a passing tornado in the states LOL.
    2 points
  39. raz.org.rain An early plume there with heat building over Spain and north Africa. A sign of things to come?
    2 points
  40. Broke my March record for rain. 146mm. My high wind gust record for March went as well. 52mph.
    2 points
  41. A side effect if this long very wet spell is the price of straw is rocketing About a third of winter wheat crops have been drowned or never sown and if spring sowing is delayed till end of April yields of grain and straw will be reduced dramatically.
    2 points
  42. Some carrot dangling providing a glimmer of hope, ideally it's a trend setter...
    2 points
  43. raz.org.rain More likely to see pigs flying.
    2 points
  44. Much of the UK is in with a shout again tomorrow, European Severe storms' outlook.
    2 points
  45. raz.org.rain Would be good to know how many wet springs were followed by dry warm summers, its not a combo I think happens that much.
    2 points
  46. I know some won't agree with me but I'm starting to get that lingering feeling that we'll end up sleepwalking into the hottest and driest summer on record because we'll be too complacent to see it coming.
    2 points
  47. 5 out of the last 6 months here have had more than 100mm of rain. Just ticked over 100mm for March.
    2 points
  48. Had Worse indeedlydoodly Iceaxecrampon indeedlydoodly Had Worse indeed I am
    2 points
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