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Little point ducking the issue. A quacking weekend in store… 0z ECM op for day 4, as another low pressure system finds us with impressive timing! Further ahead, some more positive signs - once we start seeing this type of “super-meridional” pattern - ambitious building of heights up through the Atlantic and more spectacularly, through all the S’s - Sahara-Sweden-Svalbard-Siberia-Seguam like here at day 6 on the 0z ECM op… …it’s only a matter of time before we start seeing the trough becoming over-extended with the cutting off of the low at the base of the trough, it sinking south, the heights linking up through the UK and Ireland like here at day 8… Yes, add Skegness and Sandymount to your list, spectacular super-meridional S thing! After that, a weaker version of the trough tries to reassert itself from the northwest, which the GFS op has been keenest on, though looking at the 0z ensemble mean, the pressure never really falls away again, a steady rise to a respectable 1020mb for Birmingham by the end of week 2… …which is consistent with the ECM charts and the pincer movement of heights weakening the polar trough at its stem - so though nothing wall to wall by any means, the chance of a somewhat more promising setup emerging into early May. I’ll post again around then. All the best.

Another good one. Got to laugh because otherwise we will cry.

Grand dry day. Swallows back chattering excitedly on electric wires. Theres's plenty of insects already due to the wetness. I fear a plague of midges this year.

Rush2019 Thought it was just us covered in moss! Never seen so much. Anything that hasn't moved has got thickly coated by this spring.

0.6 mm rain over night from a little feature in the early hours. WRF had been showing that for awhile. It's done well this year with the mesoscale.

Im not surprised by the spcs upgrade for thursday although it is very rare for them to upgrade the day 3 risk. A lot of shorter range models have the dryline firing. Any discrete supercell that can sustain itself will be capable of golfball-baseball sized hail, 70+ mph straight line wind gusts and strong-violent tornadoes. I also think the spcs decision to upgrade was partly due to the csu machine learning showing the equivalent of a high risk for the area, never seen that before! 21z RAP very potent, two dryline bulges one in Texas panhandle and another in Northern Kansas. Soundings from Texas panhandle Soundings from Northern Kansas Wonder if we see a 30% upgrade for fri and sat tomorrow morning, looking at models at the min both days certainly meet the threshold.

Ground finally dry enough to roll again this evening but the north wind is very cold.

SunnyG Yeah, 20 degrees is possible for next week. So weird, I've never seen a situation that after snow it already feels like Summer. It's only taking a week until we can wear t-shirts and shorts.

Freezing cold dog this morning although at least it wasn’t raining or windy which is something of a miracle. Playing golf today, although really looking forward to it as it’s so raw. Weather for Dallas looks good from the weekend, highs in the upper 20s or low 30s and mins around 20C with a severe storm or 2 possible. Can’t wait.

Who likes snow at this time of the year ? Fourth consecutive day of persistent snowfall in these parts. Currently -1.6c in the village with a deep covering. Strange though as it was 30c in the valleys 10 days ago. The joys of spring ! c

CET May averages and other statistics ___ table includes all CET values for the period 1981 to 2023 ... bold type, warmest third, italics middle third, underlined, coolest third of years ___ ___ ties indicated are in one decimal, table ranks are based on a second decimal ___ 21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780) 20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day. 15.1 ... warmest May (1833) 13.9 ... 2nd warmest May (1848) 13.8 ... t-3rd warmest Mays (1758, 1788) 13.7 ... 5th warmest May (1808) 13.6 ... t-6th warmest Mays (1727, 1992) 13.5 ... t-8th warmest Mays (1784, 1868, 1919, 1947) 13.4 ... t-12th warmest Mays 2008 (tied with 1726, 1952) 13.3 ... t-15th warmest Mays 1743, 1804, 1964, 2017, 2018 13.1 ... 1998, 2022 12.9 ... 1989, 1999 12.6 ... 1990, 2016 12.5 ... 2001, 2020, 2023 12.3 ... 2006, 2014 12.2 ... 2011 12.1 ... 2004, 2009 12.0 ... 2000, 2023 ... ... highest 30-year average (1989-2018) and 2001-2023 average 11.9 ... 1991-2020 (& 1994-2023) averages and 1988, 2007 11.8 ... 2002, 2012 11.7 ... 1981-2010 average 11.6 ... 1982, 1995 11.5 ... 1993, 1997 11.4 ... ... 1901-2000 average 11.3 ... 2005 .. 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average 11.2 ... 1981, 2019 (also 1980) ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2023 average of all data (11.24) 11.1 ... ... 1801-1900 average 11.0 ... 1986 10.9 ... 1985 10.8 ... 2015 10.7 ... 1991, 1994, 2010 ... 1659-1700 average 10.6 ... ... ... lowest 30-year average (1687-1716, to 1690-1719) _ also 10.65 (1873-1902)* 10.5 ... 2013 10.3 ... 1983 10.2 ... 2021 10.1 ... 1987 9.9 ... 1984 (also 1979) 9.2 ... 1996 tied 15th coldest with four other years, the coldest in recent years) 9.1 ... 1756 and 1877 tied 13th coldest 9.0 ... 1692,93,94,95 and 1782 tied 8th coldest 8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest 8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest 8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest 8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest 8.5 ... 1698 was coldest May Extreme cold 4.2 ... mean for 1-5 May, 1979 (4.4, 3.7, 4.7, 4.4, 3.9) 3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877 (3.2, 3.2, 4.2) 3.1 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861) _____________________________________ * The secondary minimum came after two centuries of warmer Mays with 11.61 1820-49 the peak Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Tuesday 30th of April to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties. ______________________________________ England and Wales precip (EWP) contest Note: this is verified against the Hadley version of EWP (1766 to present), The contest asks you to predict the average England and Wales precip in mm. These are the extreme values and recent averages. 151.8 ___ max 1766-2023 (in 1773) 142.4 ___ second wettest in 1782 140.7 ___ third wettest in 1967 122.7 ___ maximum 1981-2023 (in 2021) _ 118.4 in 2007 _ 115.2 in 1983 65.1 ___ average 1994-2023 64.1 ___ average 1766-2023 (all data) 63.6 ___ average 1981-2010 62.7 ___ average 1991-2020 10.3 ___ minimum 1981-2023 (in 2020) _ (13.7 (1991) previous) 07.9 ___ (min 1766-2023) in 1844 ________________________________________________________________ Recent ... 2023_43.8 mm ... 2022 _ 59.4 mm ... 2021 _122.7 mm ... 2020 _ 10.3 mm ... 2019 _ 46.0 mm ... 2018 _ 51.9 mm ... 2017 _ 65.0 mm ... 2016 _ 61.7 mm ... 2015 _ 86.6 mm ... 2014 _ 102.8 mm ... 2013 _ 73.9 mm ... 2012 _ 57.4 mm ... 2011 _ 46.5 mm ... 2010 _ 38.3 mm ... ... Enter the EWP contest in the same post as your CET temperature forecast. Scores are by rank order out of 10.0, 0.3 penalties per day late. Same deadlines apply as CET contest. ... Good luck in both contests ...

Cold feel to start the day was 5°C 6am. Blue sky and broken cloud, looks clearer to the east. Yesterday max was 12.7°C.

I'm seeing a lot of well-experienced forecasters/chasers becoming very concerned about the upcoming prospects from Thursday onwards. Fortunately on night shifts so will be able to follow the entire event. If only I'd decided to go chasing out in the States a month earlier

It's getting like it is in winter for snow seekers, with the season just gone a perfect example. It was supposed to turn colder late December, then it was early January, mid January, late January, early February, mid February, late February and before we knew it, it was March! However, at least it's only April with peak summer a good few months away. I'm sure we will have some hot weather next season, but will it be of the heat spike variety among cooler/unsettled spells or will we get more prolonged pleasant weather without getting ridiculously hot and humid?! 2018 was great in that it was consistently warm/hot with only modest levels of humidity until late July.

Currently modelled for midnight Sunday, however this will probably change timings and track between now and then.

Another grey lid day to add to the previous 1000's, cold, windy and occasionally spitting with rain, what a steaming pile our climate has become. Barring a couple of storms, this year is the most boring yet too and there is quite some competition there in recent times. SAD from Oct - May these days and seems to be extended each year. Sunlight, warmth and stormy breakdowns soon please weather Gods before I go insane.

In Absence of True Seasons I am reading the journals of Lord Byron and he calls it a "preposterous climate". And that was back in 1812.

A bit to my surprise, the sun came out at times during the afternoon, although still interspersed with mainly light showers. The main issue was the beastly wind on the coast which pegged temperatures drastically, with the East Yorkshire coast not getting above 5C today (BBC radio weather forecast). More of the same tomorrow it seems.

If its going to stay unsettled, then we need the low to move to the sw to bring in something a bit warmer. That way, the risk of thunderstorms will start to increase at this time of year. That will make things a lot more interesting.

Scorcher it's been rubbish here the last few days, max temps of 10.2C, 9.7C, 8.0C and 9.6C, little sunshine, showers and a persistent raw wind (apart from yesterday when it was calm). 7 days of April left and we're already on 120% of normal rainfall, just 91 hours of sun and not a single clear day. Spring 2024 is making 2023 look good so far!

The last two GFS runs are playing with the idea of a waft of very warm/hot air to our south-east as we enter May but with low pressure nearby as always. The 12z shows the risk of the Atlantic sweeping it away and remaining cool whereas the 6z was more of a unstable scenario with warm air aloft on an easterly for a time, but the risk of cloud and rain also and perhaps thunder. Warm air surging northeastwards with already weak pressure in place is a recipe for low pressure so I expect unsettled conditions to persist into early May. Whether it's of the cool and breezy kind or warm and thundery kind is unknown. I wouldn't be surprised if a few hot runs pop up. What with the similarities to 1998 I've talked about I wouldn't be all that surprised if warmer weather arrives soon. Regardless, both low pressure dominated scenarios can be quite convective.

We all know what will win out instead....

Rush2019 I didn’t but my nieces work colleague and friend did… she cheered her on from three spots… we met up with my niece afterwards and said she’d completed it in a good time… saw lots of peeps that had run it afterwards.. Stayed in Marylebone and had good walk around Little Venice and Camden Sunday…had lovely brunch around corner from where we stayed called cafe leville on the Regents canal Ukv can do one

If we dont see downtrends in the next few days saturday is going to be a problem, a significant trough ejection with strong flow rounding the base, negative tilt and ejection right at peak heating. At the minute everything synoptically speaking looks very favourable for a high end severe weather outbreak. A sub 997mb low is expected to develop with a strong (50-60 knot) low level jet. The existence of subtle confluence bands was also pointed out on twitter. In regimes with less forcing these bands can help give just enough lift for storms to fire off allowing for discrete convection. I do think its important to urge some caution though, differences do still exist in models. Look at the ukmets depiction, much less favourable with trough way behind. Weve had the wheels fall off the train before (especially our last setup) so lets see what the NAM and other short range models show when they get into range tomorrow/Thursday. Overall though, thursday, Friday and Saturday all are looking like good chase days with severe weather with all hazards possible. RRFS for thursday Nam 3km also for thurs NAM for friday SPC now upgraded Thursdays risk to a day 3 enhanced. "Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will all be possible. Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance. Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle, with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very large hail is anticipated with initial development across west-central/southwest KS as well. In both of these areas, storms are expected to move east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete mode can be maintained." Interestingly, CSU now predicting a very small area equivalent to a high risk for Thurs, i think it will be very conditional due to cap but a significant severe event is possible if storms can fire.

It turned out okay in the end, still cool & breezy with some light showers across the Eastern Moors when I was having a short wander around the Bronze-Age relics at Barbrook but this Western side of the Peak District has gotten more of the sunshine for the day.

Way better than forecast. That high is hanging on for dear life today. Never the less, copious amounts of strong mid-spring sunshine, a light breeze & temps around average. A welcome day after yesterday.

At the moment, part of southern Finland has received more than 30 cm of new snow and more is coming all the time, it was already 0 cm. Last night/evening it rained a lot of supercooled water. I can't remember the last time I saw this late in the year.

Dare i watch the GFS 06Z Fair enough, it wasn't a straw man argument however, it was just based on logic and what the graphs show. I agree that we can still see cooler weather in a warming climate, I don't think anyone can argue that. Though all we know at this stage is that global temperatures will increase (barring a big volcanic eruption) but atmospheric circulation determines how that extra heat is distributed. What that means locally I wouldn't want to guess. You could see 10 years of very warm April's in Sweden the next 10 years, maybe not. The long term means however will paint the best picture for changes and global temperatures will very likely carry on increasing regardless. What we are seeing is more frequent warmer extremes and shorter cooler / cold episodes. These can still be extreme as March 2018 shows but will be compensated by greater warmer extremes elsewhere. The ease of tapping into very warm airmasses is what is making colder then average months harder to come by these days but April 2021 shows it's still possible.

The flooding in the Middle East desert city of Dubai earlier in the week followed record-breaking rainfall. It doesn't rain very often here like other desert areas, but like the deadly floods in Libya last year showed, these rain events are likely becoming more extreme due to global warming. View the full blog here