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  1. 31 likes
    A surfer missing in Sussex has been found alive. Great. Now they can send the moron a bill for the callout for his stupidity.
  2. 21 likes
  3. 21 likes
    The UKMO now the flattest solution after being one of the most amplified before . The wheels came off as early as T72 hrs upstream with the more offshore and weaker ne USA low . In the grand scheme of things these early differences aren’t going to be a game changer as we are talking about really just an extra day of colder conditions before the high sinks . The winter season if we can call it that has been one of any decent amplification shown even at day 6 range not managing to verify . Overall after this colder blip or snap depending on which model is correct the outlook is dismal for cold . Normally the PV weakens as you head into February but this one looks like it’s just downed a bottle of steroids ! I should add I’d be very dubious of any colder PM flows shown at longer range with a raging PV . This is a model bias especially of the GFS when nearer the time the jet will be corrected further north . Unless we see a big change in the PV then the output past day 6 is to be blunt utter crap for cold !
  4. 20 likes
    It looks better again later in the run, fingers crossed we see some wintry weather next week.
  5. 19 likes
    Not marginal at all here now. Very heavy, massive flakes. Happy bear!
  6. 19 likes
    89mph on my roof mounted station in Dinorwic North West Wales. I’m a camera man for the BBC and ive seen my fair share of extreme environments, without exaggeration its like a hurricane out there. Rain is very heavy and very persistent. My house is 977ft ASL Not the worst i’ve seen here mind....yet
  7. 19 likes
    A few photos from this afternoon, taken at Glengavel, above Strathaven, just over 250 metres above sea-level. I wasn't able to get out until mid-afternoon, so thawing on the lower ground was well-advanced by the time, but there was plenty of wet snow around higher up. Felt pretty raw as there were showers of icy rain, sleet and one heavy burst of wet snow in the hour or so I spent there.
  8. 18 likes
    I must say, it's nice for someone to quote a post of mine which has positivity in the response Yes we had some heavy snow here, and it stuck...for about an hour haha.
  9. 17 likes
    Really not worth looking at snow depths, let alone where it may snow. Think some moderation of excitement required for such a marginal situation and uncertainty of track for the low Thursday morning. GFS has a habit of overcooking low depths, even this far out. The deeper the low the further north it tracks. UKMO was closest with the track of yesterday's low that brought snow in the north in the morning at 3 or 4 days out, GFS was too deep and thus too far north initially. Both 06z UKV and 00z EC take a shallower low through the Channel / far north of France. how much the heaviest precip along wrap around occlusion overlaps cold air at the suface on northern flank of low will be crucial, too light and it'll fall mostly rain or sleet. MO forecast for SE mentions wet snow, so the risk certainly there, though suspect higher ground such as the Downs, Chilterns, High Weald etc most likely to see any settling if precipitation is heavy and allows evaporative cooling. Light winds would be advantageous for evaporative cooling too.
  10. 17 likes
    At last a break in the weather allowed for a wee jaunt up the Sidlaws. Breezy but decent visibility and a wee cover of snow in shady parts. As for tomorrow it’s rain forecast here on the immediate east coast (as you would expect). Low-lying areas inland may fare better but in keeping with this month I think you’re going to need a bit of elevation to be sure!
  11. 17 likes
    Good to see you back NWS, and that's a big improvement from Exeter! There's plenty to get excited about from the 12z ensembles, and within the next 10 day's... I'm gerrin a tad excited... There's a slight stutter appearing in me typing hand...
  12. 16 likes
    Came in from work to a happy dog, who'd spent the afternoon watching me out the window, asked him if he wanted a walk...
  13. 16 likes
    My thought on tomorrow and how the models compare to it: Storm Ciara is being powered by a very powerful jet stream, meaning that the closer the storm crawls to the UK, the more intense it will become. It will cause chaos almost everywhere across the UK, hence the amber warning issued over the majority of the country by the Met Office. The likelihoods of this storm will include falling trees, tiles from roofs and other buildings, incredibly large waves near the coasts, and traffic on the roads. If you have seen the latest run of the sea level pressure, then you can tell it will be quite a nasty storm by looking at the isobars. Severe gales are possible over the coasts of the SE. These gusts at their highest will range from 60-70mph, and even 80mph+ possible. Waves of 2 meters high are even possible too. Even inland, it is still expected to be extremely windy, with gusts at their highest ranging from 40-60mph, with even 70mph+ possible. However, it is not just the wind. The rain totals are expected to be high, with the rain starting tonight over parts of Northern England and Scotland. The rain there is expected to be slow-moving and will definitely cause disruption, especially places like the roads. Flooding will also be possible over those areas. Everywhere across the UK is expected to receive some heavy rain, although I think it will be down to radar watching for tracking this heavy rain and where it will cause some impacts and disruption. Looking at the BBC's rain graphics underneath their forecast, it looks like there could be some little squally features possible, especially one over Northern England/Midlands at midday, and another squally feature that moves SE across Southern England.* Saturday evening/overnight On Saturday evening/overnight, the heavy rain will start to be visible over Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England, and the heavy rain will start to creep in over Wales. Some of this heavy rain will turn to snow over the hills of Scotland, Northern England and Wales, which could cause disruption already, along with the strong winds. The winds will gradually start to become stronger, with gusts already reaching 50-60mph along the coasts of Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and gusts of 30-40mph inland. The band of heavy rain that should be over parts of Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland will become slow moving, causing a lot more disruption. The temperatures in Southern England on Saturday evening and into overnight will range from 5 - 9c, and will range from -2 - 8c in parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Along with the strong winds and heavy rain (or snow over the hills), it will feel a few degrees below than what the temperature actually is. Sunday morning On Sunday morning, the heavy rain that was over Northern England and Scotland would of reached almost every part of the British Isles by now, along with the strong winds. The strong winds on Sunday morning will start to kick in for SE coasts, where the waves would start to become very high. The heavy rain would still be over Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and probably wouldn't stop raining for a while. The wind gusts wouldn't of changed very much, with coastal areas reaching 50-60mph, and the gusts inland would reach 40-50mph. As well as the temperatures, they wouldn't of changed much either, with the temperatures in Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland ranging from 0-11c and ranging from 7-13c in Southern England. Sunday afternoon On Sunday afternoon, some of the heavy rain/snow that was over Scotland and Northern Ireland would of cleared away, although behind the heavy band of rain, is scattered, blustery showers. These heavy showers could turn sleety/snowy over the hills of Scotland. The heavy rain over England will continue, with the possibility of flooding. In some places the rain will start to pep up, especially over high ground, and will cause problems/disruption. As I said earlier, I saw on the BBC's rain graphic a sort of squally feature that tracks over Northern England and the Midlands. If this is the case, and there is a squall line over the area, then expect a lot of rainfall in a short period of time. However, the rain isn't the only thing that's pepping up though. The wind gusts will certainly start to pep up, especially in coastal regions, where 60-70mph is guaranteed, and 80mph+ is possible in some areas. For the temperatures, they will be above average, with Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland ranging from 2-12c, and Southern England ranging from 8-14c. 15c could also be possible in one or two areas. Sunday evening On Sunday evening, the bands of heavy rain over Southern and Northern England will eventually clear. Although once the heavy rain clears, it will lead to some blustery, scattered showers, which could turn wintry over the hills. Once again on the BBC's rain graphics, another squall feature (perhaps the same one that was over the Midlands) tracks over Southern England, producing some heavy rain in a short space of time. Over in Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland, there will still be some scattered and blustery showers, with once again the chance of some of them turning sleety/snowy. It will still be very windy in coastal regions, with 60-70mph gusts, and perhaps even 80mph+. It will still be very windy inland, with gusts ranging from 40-60mph on Sunday evening, and perhaps reaching 70mph. Some of the heavy rain and wind gusts will still linger into the evening and into the night in the far SE. Temperatures in the evening should range from 2-11c in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and 9-14c in England and Wales. Other info I don't think this has been mentioned by any other forecasters, so this probably won't happen, but some places might see a chance of some lightning strikes. I think this because currently one of the bands of rain from Storm Ciara is currently producing lightning off the coast of Western Scotland. Also because it reminds of when Ex Humberto in September last year, when the storm bought milder air and also had a few storms embedded into it. *Screenshots of BBC's rain graphics about a possible squall line moving through: So, for a summary, it is expected to be windy, with gale force winds at times, along with very heavy rain. A miserable day to come tomorrow for the people who like dry and fine weather. It looks like a quite a nasty storm incoming.
  14. 16 likes
    The ECM clusters didn't really pick up on this potential northerly incursion last week, and tbh they still aren't generally as punchy as the op runs: Only the op run cluster has that trough directly to the south of us, which would shut out the Atlantic for longer and bring a genuine risk of snow for all. Having said that, all clusters agree on at least a short spell of northerly influence, so high confidence in a cold end to next week now, even if a generally drier one away from susceptible coasts. Further ahead, this morning's clusters seem keen to flatten the high over us, which could trap colder air within for a longer period of time depending upon orientation. The T366 (D14) chart, although reintroducing a westerly component, looks ripe for a fresh attempt at a North Atlantic High. My view of weather history is that if you can achieve a certain pattern once, you've a much greater chance of it repeating soon after. And just to round off ... there was a stella wintery cluster in last night's ensembles. Cluster 5 is a textbook snow set-up with low pressure hitting an easterly draw. It only had 13% of the runs, so low chances, but it will be interesting to watch if the cluster reappears any time soon. All in all, wintry prospects definitely on the up now, and February could be a very different month.
  15. 15 likes
    Just had a look at the GEFS 6z postage stamps and they show an increasing chance of snow as next week progresses, especially from midweek which was also the case with the 0z... could next week turn into the best period of the winter so far for cold / snow starved coldies?...everything crossed!!
  16. 15 likes
    @Kirkcaldy Weather the Euro4 should get a 400 year jail term for how useless it has become at predicting snow. Road trip today, perfect conditions at Glencoe: Car pics too: I'll be back later to bore you all to death by holiday snap
  17. 15 likes
    Almighty crack of forked lightning in the valley, just as I was standing at the window. As the snow and graupel came down in buckets. Don't see that very often.
  18. 15 likes
    People seem to be more obsessed by the warning than the storm itself!
  19. 14 likes
    In the longer term, it's looking kindae cauld tae. -5 or lower T850s the norm... Even scandi/greenie highs making appearances in FI. PV increasingly disrupted / wandering. I'm not holding out hope for a wee beasterly quite yet, but at least the ski areas should finish the season better than it started. Or, mair correctly, start their season! In the meantime, the morn looks fun. --- EDIT. This is actually more classic 70s/80s winters in Scotland. I learned to ski at aviemore as a young lad fae the valley in the 80's. While carrbrigde got snaw, it wasn't a continuous run of beasts, 10ft drifts, frozen rivers and digging out trains from inverness. School (by bus) in the next parish was hardly ever shut, with the roads clear, much to my disappointment. Also, 'the hill' wasn't always 2 m deep in snaw, but plenty of heather patches and mild, slushy days. The lady was famous for her slush bumps. What happened was the kind of pattern we have now; regular lows but centred more south, so colder air swept the highlands from the WSW and dumped huge drifts into the northern corrie ski basins. Freeze-thaw then hardened this into a solid base for the season in natural gullies aided by fences. This stopped really quite abruptly into the 90's, and early 00's, where winters more like this one Nov-Jan dominated, with dreaded 'bartlett' highs. Since 2010 it's actually, overall, maybe a little better, but not 2018 and this winter (until the past few weeks). At least this is my impression / memories.
  20. 13 likes
    ECM clusters - more of the same generally. Confirmation of how unsettled this weekend is with those very tight lines - I think we've been lucky not to have had it worse, actually, one of those late developing lows could easily have occured nearer us. Later next week - well there's the promise the Atlantic ridge will nudge a little higher, but this could easily flatten back to square one: Further out to the end of the month - with heights finally rising further west and a strong signal for a Scandi trough, you never know, a northerly might just squeeze in:
  21. 13 likes
    Still heavy snow in braemar. 5 foot drifts on the site, wind is blowing from the southwest, which is the way the shed faces.....where the snow plough and shovels are....
  22. 13 likes
    The usual moaning on here where some are incapable of acknowledging something unless it's happened in their actual garden or, at worst, the next street. It baffles me why so many feel the need to do this 'non-event over hyped' garbage. It's often combined with faintly frothing rants at the Met Office, maybe because the Met Office is full of clever scientists who make their living through their talents. Unless, perish the thought, the critics are attention seeking
  23. 13 likes
    Some dafties parked their cars foolishly at Riverside in Dundee
  24. 13 likes
    As a rule cold charts don’t verify during winter 2019/20.
  25. 13 likes
    Looking at the radar it seems to be heading our way for a change...currently huge flakes falling its covering the ground really qulckly. Its snawing like its never snawed before...chucking it doon..!!!
  26. 12 likes
    Crazy Synoptics ! Talk about a lot going on. The ECM certainly keeps us interested as I’m not sure anyone has much idea how this is all going to turn out !
  27. 12 likes
    Heavy again in Braemar. Really wet snow though.
  28. 12 likes
    Chin up folks there is always March... #desperatetimes
  29. 12 likes
    Snowed in here... Higher roads/hills inland looking good - across the water in Argyll and Bute snowline is roughly 50 meters. Good to see snow pictures in here - enjoy!
  30. 11 likes
    I asked my O.H. if we could play 'Dr's and Nurses' yesterday bedtime...........so she put me in the corridor all night.........
  31. 11 likes
    Stonelairg wind farm apparently, not sure if that is the same area you mention? 2 years ago we were entering BEAST mode, ah the memories
  32. 11 likes
    00Z GFS about as good as it could get in the grand scheme of things. Second night of March
  33. 11 likes
    Temperature is 10C colder compared to yesterday. Currently 2C with moderate snow, the hills have a slight covering. Bank. Heavier snow out at Braemar. Latest update from the Met office, for this area, is for heavy snow 11am..
  34. 11 likes
    What I’m looking for in the models at present is some letup in the current pattern for those that have, or will have had a terrible time with flooding. For the rest of us, some dry days and some sign of spring. Here’s the moan.... the incessant hunt for snow in the model thread is very boring. A few terrible bores in there. Isn’t there more to offer in meteorology then snow? I know they get likes and all. But it’s almost verging on unhealthy in my view.
  35. 11 likes
    Turning icy here as the sky cleared when the wind veered North of West. More showery today than I would have have forecast with many of the heavier ones being sleety and even a bit snow early doors though it did not settle. Having a bit of altitude and inland made a difference today. Here is Errichel in Highland Perthshire at 300 mtrs asl.
  36. 11 likes
    For anyone in doubt about the seriousness of the situation in South Wales consider this chart showing another 4cm of rain due today up to 6:00 pm: c This is on top of the 14 hours of nearly continuous rain which has already drenched the hills in this area. The steep sided valleys of South Wales drain all this water into narrow streams and rivers which can very quickly become inundated and cause dangerous flooding. Hence - red warning very much justified.
  37. 11 likes
    @CatchMyDrift I certainly don't expect anything here, I have seen it quite a few times where precip moving up from the south gets about as far as Edinburgh then thinks nah don't fancy the trip across the forth and another issue tomorrow will be the higher 850 temps and dew points so I would say someone like @mardatha or @shuggee would be best bet if it gets that far north.
  38. 11 likes
    You should have got your dad to do the writing Heavy settling snow for about 2 hours in 'upland' Caithness this afternoon (ie ground above about 80m) so I got caught in it, out and about, rolling around like a puppy, chucking snowballs at the project manager (both lies, sorry) then down to Hakirk (40m) where it's still sleet. Poor sheep the last few days. The ones around here look like they've gone into stasis now after several very cold wet and windy days, stuck out in fields with nowt but a barbed wire fence for shelter.
  39. 11 likes
    After a slushy stairt, heavy snaw oan here. Everything rapidly turning white.
  40. 11 likes
    Cairngorm mountain reporting massive snowdrifts in places.
  41. 11 likes
    A wet 9cm here now.....but also up to 1.4C and feeling more marginal in anything other than the heavy stuff.
  42. 11 likes
    The poor winter output continues. Too much polishing a turd happening at the moment. Ext EPS suggests a continuation of the positive AO/NAO combo. Others may find wet, blustery conditions at 8C fascinating but it just doesn’t cut it for me!
  43. 11 likes
    Our pain is at least helping the polar bears ! The PV looks like it’s going into over drive . At some point it will relent and when it does there’s a lot of cold bottled up in the Arctic , whether some of that gets released before the end of February hard to say . Its not looking good at the moment but too soon to completely write the month off .
  44. 11 likes
    00z GFS op at the cold end of the ensembles spread, but not without support. usually GFS has a good track record with modelling northerlies at range, though the 00z op probably at the extreme end wrt depth of cold and duration, given EC is much less cold and shorter in duration with the northerly, while GEM and ICON don't look to entertain the idea of a northerly at all. So caution required if getting too excited looking at those T850 and precipitation charts from GFS.
  45. 10 likes
    Definitely colder on the hills this morning, the ground is solid and any standing water is frozen. At elevation, the hills to the west look great in their winter coats:
  46. 10 likes
    Relentless zonality this season,no pertuberations or weaker vortex yet in forecast,just a terrible winter season full stop.Cant wait for spring. A lesson to learn not to look at zonal wind forecast and MJO on GFS 5+ days
  47. 10 likes
    12z ECM giving support the the gfs for a potentially cold blast next Tuesday and Wednesday, timings vary a bit but something rather chilly with snow showers appears to be shaping up.
  48. 10 likes
    Was expecting this forum to be bouncing this evening with what is being forecast on the models at present for next week Large parts of the country have potential so see snow fall of varying quantities along with fierce winds, rain and kitchen sinks
  49. 10 likes
    Heavy drizzle now, could possibly be RAIN Just found a dead mouse in the sofa. Cats are getting lazy. In fact, one's asleep on a chair in the kitchen, one's asleep on my bed and one's asleep on an old pullover in the bathroom. It's that sort of day. We did get a beach walk in earlier, some unusual patterns in the sand after the neap tides. Rather a <yawn> lazy afternoon myself.... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
  50. 10 likes
    Yes note Met Office forecast has held firm with the northerly flow today - and it hasn't been very bullish in calling colder conditions at all this winter.. certainly holding up the UKMO against the GFS. Had a strong feeling of a major backtrack from GFS this evening - how many times does it seem to overeact to any low pressure system moving out of the NE USA seaboard - it always seems too quick in spilling energy eastwards.
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