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BREAKING NEWS:- The first Nationwide dry spell , for 9 months ,predicted by the end of this week.....!☺

Three things stand out this morning from gfs. A drying trend nationwide, that must be the most important thing that stands out. Secondly, a chilly airmass enveloping the UK, bonus plenty of sunshine, especially southeastern Britain. Thirdly, Frost ,will be problematic for just about all nationwide. A lot to cheer about, now the rain train is coming to a halt ,some pleasant Spring like weather on the way, ,no heavy rain , No gales , and bright cheery weather to be had , what's not to like about that! ☺

This is at Norwich at 3.45pm just had some big lightning and hail from this heavy shower.

Looking at the next ten days, which cover the middle third of April, t’s good to see the relevant part of the annual cycle, in the form of the springtime waning of the PV, well underway. It is happening a bit later than the last couple of years, but is striking nonetheless, here on both the 0z ECM operational run and ensemble mean, day 1 - 10 animations, the PV very much on the wane, being nibbled away by evolving mid-latitude ridges, with the core PV diminished and returning from the Siberian Arctic to the pole. This leaves us with a solidly meridional 5-wave hemispheric pattern by day 10, shown nicely on the op and mean anomalies, ridges by then through western North America, up through the eastern seaboard, Western Europe, Kazakhstan up into Siberia, and the far east of Russia. The picture for the UK and Ireland alternates from seeing a shallow ridge over the next few days, to being under the influence of an active low pressure system passing through with the trough around days 5-6, before the arrival of a better amplified ridge by day 9-10 as the more meridional pattern firms up. Day 10 provides a convenient juncture for the UK and Ireland for showing the potential for something more settled getting a bit further north to be more widely shared, op and mean again. However, it looks very much like it’s a snapshot in a slow but steady revolution of the 5-wave ridge / trough pattern around the pole, with approximately 4 days appearing to be the current phase for the ridge to trough transition, hinting at a period of drier, brighter spells of 3-4 days alternating with more changeable spells of 3-4 days. A much more normal and much more pleasant a pattern on view as spring more clearly shows its hand.

Just like to the 10 days before Easter the models were in full agreement of a deep Atlantic low just to the west of the UK, now we have solid agreement of an Atlantic high setting up to the west, and maybe shifting east to sit over the UK. Nothing particularly warm in sight at the moment but definately an end to the constant deluge is now pretty much guarenteed...Thank God!

Some from this afternoon. A fab day for some cloudspotting, about as classic of an April sunshine & (hail) showers day as it gets. Although a little chilly for my liking, the very strong sunshine makes up for it! Also some mammatus looking at the Coventry Airport cam when I didn't have the chance to capture them:

Thank God the 00z runs are moving towards HP having more influence from mid month. It's hardly stopped raining since October in the North west....absolutely appalling 6 months of Atlantic dominated weather.

A storm passing the south end of Milton Keynes birthed a weak funnel cloud, lasting for a few minutes just before 5pm. Rotation in the cloud leading up to it was very evident!

Shiver me timbers! Looks like we have a retrogressing high before our very eyes, ha ha haar (and other pirate noises) - even before it’s properly arrived. Whether ‘twill be as shivery as 6z GFS op at day 9, where it withdraws far enough to the northwest to allow a proper cold blast down the frontage with some snow a fair way south, and settling on the hills… or holds close enough nearby to keep the old lunger a bit further east like on the 0z GEM op at day 10 (beware that sea serpent beyond the pole, haar)… the retrogression and European trough are definitely looking to be features of week 2 - ‘tis here too on the 0z EPS at day 11. Aar. The CFS weeklies (weeks 1-3) show the Euro trough by week 3 being reinforced by its maritime buddy that’s come romping through the Azores in weeks 1 and 2, while to the north, the Atlantic heights hint at wobbling back east, a tad back our way again… …the big concern for us island landlubbers looking for something to warm our jellies is that rather than a generally quiet but cool outlook, the pattern in the event all heads just that bit further north bringing us back into chilly cyclonic influences that just judder your rafters. More pirate noises….

Eps mean is strongly keen on higher slp in two weeks which is v notable at such a range gefs not too different About time !

Couldn't resist an edit:

After a pretty torrid couple of months, the pieces are starting to move towards something much more palatable. It is no surprise that this is happening now, as the effects of the significant zonal wind reversal in the strat at the end of February start to wane. The NAM index over the last couple of months looks telling: This is effectively the Arctic Oscillation (AO) but at all layers of the atmosphere, and you can see from the plot how the negative values from the SSW have continued to just sit above the troposphere and impinge our weather ever since. That doesn’t mean we’ve had constant easterlies here - not all SSWs result in this anyway for the UK locally (and I think the ones that do are becoming rarer, I’ll come back to this), but the effect on the northern hemisphere more generally has been marked. The plot also shows that into the forecast period, that reign of terror from the strat is now over it has fully downwelled - it is benign from now on, so normal spring patterns have a belated chance to take hold. A final comment re the strat, and how things may be changing with global warming. With only 6 SSWs historically per decade, it is perhaps too early to tell, but my intuition is, well, two things, a) that SSWs are becoming more frequent, and b) that, when they occur, they are becoming less likely (than the 66% rule of thumb) to deliver cold scenarios for the UK in winter. A much more settled outlook is starting to become apparent in the 8-15 day modelling, here’s the ECM clusters T192-T240: Clusters 1 and 2 (combined with 44/51 of the runs) showing high pressure in charge over the UK, how welcome is that! T264+: Clusters 2,3,4 show a continuation of the high pressure local to the UK, but the main theme from all the clusters is the lack of anything from the Atlantic, finally, with the other clusters generally having a ridge to the west of the UK, which would be a cooler scenario.

Back home now, but from yesterday afternoon to the minute I got on the train from Penrith earlier today, that was starting to become a bit excessive with nearly 40mm of rain falling from that system, near the campsite I was at (Chapel House Farm). Incredible how quick it also changed from sunshine to rain yesterday. Made the most of that glorious sunny few hours with another walk to Castle Crag to see the caves and moss-covered woodlands, and getting the drone up over Borrowdale itself. I think i'm still lucky enough to have had the rain fall mostly at night apart from 2 days! Also a few more from Sunday night with the first of 2 walks to Castle Crag, very windy indeed!

Some pretty intense hail showers have been hitting here

Final post from last week's trip! First a few from last Tuesday, hiking to the wildcamp spot from Glenridding and the weather cleared up nicely for the evening which gave some great visibility! A sun dog made an appearance then slowly flew to the drone closer to Helvellyn to see a few small snow patches remaining. The North Pennines could be seen clearly as the sun was setting. Was worth staying inside the tents on a rainy Wednesday for a better Thursday. The clouds cleared during Thursday morning then made the hike to Helvellyn. Clouds shrouded the summit a little although the views were great and was nice to have some calm and dry conditions once more! And finally a few from Saturday, exploring some of Borrowdale, by-passing Eagle Crag and with a distant view of I Think Scafell Pike. Very windy but dry & mild with other hikers enjoying their Saturday afternoon as well. A lovely golden sunset to finish that day off. YouCut_20240406_144652368~3.mp4 Possibly I'll come back again in the near future, maybe some point in summer when hopefully things are warmer / drier and everything looking much greener!

Are we finally heading towards the promised land? As in, a U.K. high? The ensembles certainly think so. GEFS GEPS I’m not going to fret about random GFS Ops progging the big Greenland high. As long as the means stay solid on the U.K. high, we’re all good.

Blimey. Outstanding choreography from the ridge dance troupe, lining up to really sock it to the PV on the NH dance floor over the next 10 days on the 12z ECM operational run. Let’s watch the elaborate performance as successive waves of heights push north. Starting from where we are today, PV centre stage, coordinating Atlantic, Scrussian and Bering Sea troughs in a whole hemisphere twirl. Keep an eye on that little pocket of heights over the Canadian seaboard with the hook north, because…. …first up is the Atlantic ridge by day 3, still with the northward extension of heights, now extending well up through Baffin. By day 5, the PV still holding centre stage, but the Atlantic ridge has been joined by the Alaska ridge, a sweet little link-up of heights pushing the lower heights east. But about to join in is a nascent ridge pushing up the east of Japan towards eastern Russia, and there are hints of a naughty little squeeze from Kazakhstan. By day 9 / 10, the Kazakh squeeze is maintained, well and truly heating up that floor, while the Japan surge goes all-out Siberian, joining their friends from the west in a hemispheric Cha Cha that ultimately congas its way right through the heart of the Arctic. PV exit stage left, arrivederci. A good few days respite for the UK and Ireland. Yeah, sign up everyone (if you’re not totally exhausted), the moves are awesome.

Tonnes of fascinating evolutions occuring teleconnectively I'll start by revisiting the Arctic Oscillation which I discussed here Taking the data from the above post Easy to see the -AO event has become even stronger than anticipated, the strongest positive values for a long time and stronger than during the whole entire winter season. We can watch as the extremely cold airmass associated with the Tropospheric Vortex begins to move from the Russian end of the Arctic across toward the Alaskan and Canadian end. Values at -28C 850hpa ongoing possibly some nearing -30C and still maintaining at least -24C at 850hpa upon the position shift. This can be noted from the above animations but delving slightly deeper. Trends show the coldest conditions becoming centred across Europe. Very fascinating setup hemispherically we've got a number of Rossby Wave Break Events. I have already discussed most of these and some of their impacts here Focusing on the North Pacific this looks the most impressive and set to continue development into an ongoing Rossby Wave Train - RWT We also have a developing Rossby Wave Break Event from the North Atlantic through Europe and North Africa by Mid April 14th > 15th. The right hand cut off low will be part of the significant cold temperatures across North Africa as discussed in my post in the global temperature thread however this will also bring a significant flash flood risk as a significant rainfall event occurs in Tunisia extending into Northeast and North Algeria. To fully understand the upcoming developments beyond this timeframe we need to look in detail at recent and ongoing teleconnective developments. To do this I'd like to revisit my posts from the start of January, January 20th and March 4th. Beginning with the MJO and El Ninò, a lower amplitude cycle was always going to occur and upon doing research this is a common occurence during the latter stages of strong/super El Ninò Events with the following excerpts from "The eastward propagation of MJO was also observed during the decaying stages of the three super El Niño events, but its intensity was weaker compared with the developing and mature stages." "3.3 Decaying stages The eastward propagation of the MJO could be observed during the decaying stages of the three super El Niño, but their intensity, duration and propagation distance were significantly weakened compared with those in the developing and mature stages (Figure 2). The spatiotemporal spectral analysis in Figure 3 also showed that power spectrum of intraseasonal eastward propagation during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño events were relatively stronger than those during the 1982/83 El Niño. The central periods of the eastward propagation for the MJO were mainly 40 days and 75 days during the decaying stages of 1997/98 El Niño, and it was primarily 40 days for the 2015/16 El Niño. However, there is no center of intraseasonal eastward propagation during the 1982/83 El Niño. The strong wave of eastward and westward propagation of lager than 90 days appeared in the decaying stages of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events, which may be induced by the conversion of the MJO energy to low-frequency energy of above 90 days (Li and Zhou, 1994; Li and Li, 1995). At the same time, the high-frequency wave activities of the eastward propagation were prominent at 20–30 days during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 El Niño. In addition, the eastward propagation center of zonal wave 2 was detected during the decaying stages of the 1982/83 El Niño. The evolution and composite results of the RMM index during decaying stages of three super El Niño illustrated that the MJO activity in the decaying stages is significantly weaker than that in the developing and mature stages. The MJO intensity in the decaying stages was the weakest, especially for the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events (Figure 2; Figure 4; Figure 5). The RMM indexes of phase 4–8 during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño changed from positive anomaly in the mature stages to negative anomalies, particularly in phase 6–8 (Figure 5C). The strong MJO activity led to the increase in the average RMM index of phase 4-5 in May 1998. The two robust MJO activities in June and July 2016 also enhanced the average RMM index of phase 1-2 during the decaying stages of the 2015/16 El Niño. Many studies had indicated that the robust MJO activity in May 1998 triggered the easterly anomalies, resulting in the termination of El Niño. After the MJO event, the Niño 3.4 index rapidly decayed from positive anomaly to negative anomaly (Takayabu et al., 1999; Miyakawa et al., 2017). Figure 2 showed that during the decaying stages of three super El Niño, when Niño 3.4 index turned from positive to negative, the MJO easterly existed in the eastern Pacific, which demonstrated that the MJO easterlies may accelerate the extinction of strong El Niño. Meanwhile, the MJO westerlies in April 1998 and June 2016 existed in the eastern Pacific, while the decaying rate of the Niño 3.4 index was prominently reduced. The anomalous MJO zonal wind amplitudes in the Indian Ocean and Pacific were weakened in the decaying stages, especially in the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño, while they were enhanced in the central and eastern Pacific, particularly in the 2015/16 (Figure 6). The MJO zonal wind amplitudes strengthened over the eastern Pacific, which may lead to the stronger 2015/16 El Niño. These results indicate that the MJO plays a critical role in the decaying stages of El Niño while it is necessary to further study the interaction between the MJO and the decaying stages of El Niño." Taking the MJO progression of late we see this evolution occuring again with the lowest amplitude involved with progression across the Indian Ocean. There are many areas of importance and interest here. With ongoing discrepancies between all models on amplitude and progression / timing of this cycle its no surprise seeing associated differences within the outputs which will continue until this is worked out however there are patterns which are increasingly probable given recent progression and continuing feedback of El Ninò which I will discuss below. As I discussed in my posts during January it's not overly shocking seeing the MJO decreasing in amplitude across the Indian Ocean given interesting recent developments involving the Indian Ocean Dipole. Taking the data from my post in January the IOD looked to weaken markedly and be at neutral - potentially negative by this current timeframe. Met Office BOM This weakening close to neutral has occured but a re-emergence into positive IOD conditions are occuring a bit earlier and stronger than those outlooks. Newest Data courtesy of Met Office and BOM Other seasonal models also trending into more of a noticeable +IOD Looking at upcoming developments and revisiting my post from October "I've enjoyed researching the PNA further extending more information than the bits I knew already and having found multiple papers there's a clear connection with the PNA and upstream blocks either Scandi Greenland or a mix of both which stems from Rossby Wave Breaking in most scenarios as we are and have witnessed lately." We are seeing the most negative PNA since Late February. Pairing this with the MJO in the Indian Ocean and the Maritimes in April in an El Ninò plus feedback typically seen in association with El Ninò From now through Mid April we see the Atlantic Ridge regime which could extend across Ireland possibly the UK for a time, with this transitioning into blocking to our Northeast, North and most likely Greenland too. As shown in my post from October and other occasions a negative PNA can lead to a cold - potentially significantly cold temperature anomaly from the Northeast-East Recent GFS outputs. Thanks for reading, KW ️

Dry, settled and warm for the south from Thursday until about Sunday this week, up to 20c in the SE, with some good sunshine. Then a chilly NW’erly early next week. After that, this is what each model run shows this morning: ECM - the Atlantic high moves east, back over the UK GFS - the NW’erly is very brief before the high starts moving back east settling things down again. It’s not a very robust high so I wouldn’t expect wall to wall sunshine, but largely dry with some sunny spells and reasonable temperatures. UKMO - only goes out to Monday night but also shows the high moving back east:

Some matumus clouds after this heavy shower pass east of Norwich at 2.30pm

Andrea spring sprung ages ago we’ve not had a below average month, leaves are open, flowers open, it’s very much a typical spring one day warm one day cold that is spring

Hola from Seville, have to pay money to see a sky like this these days! Lol. Hopefully I can bring the sun back with me when I'm home Saturday. In the mean time, hope you guys get some better spells of weather back home.

The coldies are suddenly getting excited again but I think they need to settle down. The GFS is going off on one in deep FI as it always does. Cooler next week but probably not far below average by day for most of us. The Met Office aren't predicting frosts for my area either. Any sunshine will be most welcome, even if it's cool in the shade. The ECM is showing a very different evolution with the high eventually being pushed over the UK, leading to a gradual warmup towards the end of next week.

my better half sent me this - from outside her shop in sale. i see no lightning on the radar but she's saying there is a lot of low rumbling going on, that line has been travelling SE for the last two hours.. WhatsApp Video 2024-04-16 at 13.00.32.mp4

GFS for next weekend? Yes please….

Three years ago today. Somehow I don’t think we’ll be getting anything similar today

Who needs words when a picture says it all. 5 dry days in the past month, and although never massively wet, just continously damp. Horrendous. We can only dream of a month with 5 wet days in it .

The GFS 10-day accumulated precipitation shows a bit more of a traditional NW to SE split tonight. Still some very high totals for W Scotland, NW England and N Wales, but away from those areas, it really doesn't look all that bad, certainly compared to recently. As we move towards the longer range, it's always a dangerous game making any predictions, but the mean signal is still for any cooler NW / N interlude to be on the short and not too severe side of things. As a final note, worth commenting on that absolutely insane GFS control run in deep FI. Couldn't let it go without saying something of course! At around day 12, things look relatively normal - chilly in the north and relatively mild in the south. But what's that over North Africa? Stepping forward to day 14, the plume launches northwards. And this is where we end up at day 15. 20C isotherm just clipping the south coast. 25C possible in London, over 30C in France.

A fairly lively morning by the looks of things though the lightning missed my area by 20-30 miles this morning to my east. Rain seemed heavy, briefly woke up around the time the squall hit. Showers with hail mixed in following behind, classic post-frontal cold unstable air setup with the strong sunshine leading to some decent convection.

Quite remarkable given what we've seen recently - the GFS 12z keeps the Atlantic firmly blocked for the rest of the month, largely with high pressure in control. Generally near average to slightly on the chilly side temperature-wise though, especially further north. At the surface though it looks closer to average apart from the middle part of next week, probably due to warmer than average SSTs around the UK keeping things a bit milder than you'd otherwise expect. In extreme FI right at the two week mark, possibly a sign for a warm up, but very weak signal at this stage. The ECM ensemble meteograms also show the pattern quite clearly - a very strong signal for the winds to be coming from some sort of northerly direction for the foreseeable. So, the upshot is we've got what I think most of us were wishing for - a period of much drier weather on the way overall once we get the rain early next week out of the way. But generally staying quite chilly. Good weather for walking, but pack the T-shirts and shorts away for a bit longer. A sustained period of both warm and dry weather looks like it will have to wait until the very end of the month at the absolute earliest, or more likely early May.

Believe it or not, the period July 2023 - to now, is wetter than the whole of last year and last year was the 6th wettest year on record for the region...

Quick summary. Best charts I’ve seen in a long time for eventually the weather settling down. The change is underway, but needs a little more time for the complete settled weather to arrive! Anyway, trends looking the best I’ve seen all year….

I made my way up to Five Wells near Taddington whilst we had 2 hours of sunshine this early morning, a shame yet another weather system is almost at the doorstep to give rain for the rest of the day. So much for the predictions made 10 years ago that due to 'climate change' the central UK will become more sub-Sahara by each year

Even by the standards set over the last few months, today has been a vile day. heavy, at times torrential rain since mid morning and for much of the time it was being blown horizontal by the wind. certainly not knocking the Met office but we’ve had warnings issued for conditions that didn’t come close to what we had at times today. thoroughly unpleasant is probably the most polite way to sum it up and I’m just glad that we had a couple of dry hours yesterday to clear the remains of the fence panel blown out over the weekend as It would have been scattered over the town by now. new ones come tomorrow so please can we have a reasonable day so I can get it fitted before the next mid winter storm arrives

We had a storm earlier today around 2:30pm and had a thunder bolt so loud it made by ears ring . The power also went off . Just walked to the end of my street and the house as been struck. Reports from neighbours say there is damage to quite a few properties near by.

The mad hail reached here now. Looks like more might be incoming in the next hourish. 20240416_152147.mp4

Rain Lady aye it doesn’t matter which side of the GW debate you sit on, the conditions since early summer last year have been abysmal and we will all likely feel the effects in terms of substandard foods at higher prices. if this turns out to have been a freak event and conditions settle down into a lengthy period of good weather then some sort of normality will return and GW will suddenly become a positive thing but months of continuing wet weather has certainly played havoc with all aspects of life and I really feel for anyone trying to make a living in these conditions. Thankfully the dire conditions of yesterday should improve into something drier over the next few days with that rarest of beast, a high pressure system looking to set up shop around this part of the world but to me it looks like a drier but largely cloudy affair and, given the need for sunshine at this time of year, suppressed temperatures. I certainly cannot see us reaching for the sun cream and dusting the BBQ off anytime soon.

Covering of snow on higher ground.

Yes. Lively out there as reported elsewhere. Belting squall swept through had the Terriers barking so it was get up time. Anyway here’s some Monday Museum Piece Machinery took yesterday out and about when reasonably pleasant from a neighbouring village.

Active period of weather with this. Number of dynamics going on, we have a cold front which will be finishing its journey through Ireland and the UK by midday Monday. With a strengthening Jet Streak interacting with the cold front there are a few heightened threats these being increased wind gusts with trends for embedded potentially damaging gusts and also a potential for tornadic activities embedded along the cold front I'd suggest parts of Ireland and also Wales and Southwest England being particularly at risk though it's a wide area overall. To the Northeast of this active Jet Streak we have a deep cold pool moving in at 500hpa, this corresponding brilliantly with a pool of increased instability meaning the showers having a higher expectation of being thundery in nature and combining to the Lowering Isothermic values a wintry mix with snow mostly at high levels though not exclusively with hail and sleet to lower levels. Northwest, North and Northeast England and Scotland seeing the most of this activity. As this Arctic plunge descends through Europe this brings yet another significant snowfall event across the Alps, a very repetitive and common occurence during this El Ninò. I'm also noticing the signal of a significant snow event in Bosnia and Herzegovina from Wednesday through Friday.

Fine day for sowing wind and sun earlier. Some showers late afternoon.Into last field 30 minutes ago and heavy rain came on. So stopped again.

Scorcher Yes, high hangs around in some shape or form until the end of the run on the GFS, although drifts slightly northwest later. GEM 12z run is a cracker through to T240, things starting to properly firm up now:

Convective Outlook ️ An active cold front is developing just of the coast of W Scot which will track SE across the country bringing the risk of the odd lightning strikes, 60mph gusts & a brief possible tornado. T-storms are also expected for W Scot where a SLGHT has been issued. Perhaps a re-strengthening towards the Lincolnshire corridor but not enough confidence in how it'll evolve for that.

Not to bad an afternoon and 104 quid win on national

The current regional rainfall total is ridiculous for April. We are not even halfway through April and we are already in the top 40 wettest Aprils on record for the region after just 11 days. April is one of the driest months of the year on average for our region.

Almost into May on the 00z and we’re still getting hit by relentless sub -5C air, and pretty much the only place relative to our latitude being hit by strings of constant low pressure. There’s no end to this is there? We can’t call a 3 day blip a pattern change. More like a relief whilst the AO trends negative again and gives us the worst possible outcome to it. Really starting to suffer now. It’s been autumn since last July, I was hoping for some spring warmth & sunshine. May is my favourite month.

Raining again.....is it really too much to ask of this pathetic country just to have a day where it doesn't fooking rain?!? It's physically making me ill.

So what’s caused our wet March with a southerly tracking jet stream? The late season SSW! As it was always going to. Please people don’t wish for one again…

I dug a new pond in my garden last month. It's to be fed from the overflow from my waterbutts, but I hadn't got around to hooking it up. Just the rainfall directly into the pond has been enough to keep it topped up since then.

Rush2019 I was expecting to make a Spring visit to the region but going by all reports think will have to delay. The figures for the past 9 months are really depressing , not only in the NW but across much of The British Isles. Is there a beacon of hope on the horizon ? Looking at the models , not much . I hate cold winds in Spring. My farmer friend up in Skipton tells me he has never seen the ground as saturated in all the many decades of his farming life. Just no sun. He cannot send his cattle out as they will just get bogged down and Lambs desperate for some warm sunshine on their backs. Conversely, over here in The Austrian Alps , we have JUST experienced the hottest first week of April in History with an abundance of spring . However, we have been warned of an impending cool spell next week with chill winds and snow above 1000m. C