Leaderboard

Little point ducking the issue. A quacking weekend in store… 0z ECM op for day 4, as another low pressure system finds us with impressive timing! Further ahead, some more positive signs - once we start seeing this type of “super-meridional” pattern - ambitious building of heights up through the Atlantic and more spectacularly, through all the S’s - Sahara-Sweden-Svalbard-Siberia-Seguam like here at day 6 on the 0z ECM op… …it’s only a matter of time before we start seeing the trough becoming over-extended with the cutting off of the low at the base of the trough, it sinking south, the heights linking up through the UK and Ireland like here at day 8… Yes, add Skegness and Sandymount to your list, spectacular super-meridional S thing! After that, a weaker version of the trough tries to reassert itself from the northwest, which the GFS op has been keenest on, though looking at the 0z ensemble mean, the pressure never really falls away again, a steady rise to a respectable 1020mb for Birmingham by the end of week 2… …which is consistent with the ECM charts and the pincer movement of heights weakening the polar trough at its stem - so though nothing wall to wall by any means, the chance of a somewhat more promising setup emerging into early May. I’ll post again around then. All the best.

I have to say, I am seeing very little of hope of a substantial warm up in any of the models. Maybe something on ECM clusters 2 and 3 in the T192-T240 timeframe: But otherwise the pieces aren’t in the right place, and that doesn’t look like changing on the T264+: Maybe clusters 3 and 4 show an inkling of setting in the region of the UK. What we can say, is that the outlook is not wall to wall unsettled, like the earlier part of spring which is a pyrrhic victory, I suppose. At this time of year, I am usually on the lookout for signs of any self-reinforcing pattern setting up with an eye to summer, but no signs of that at all. First steps would need to be a build of some sort of heat over the near continent of which there is absolutely no sign, GFS 0z T360, for example: Meanwhile, above us the final warming in the stratosphere looms, in a few days on GFS 0z: The change to easterlies as shown (blue) on the left plot at 10 hPa 60N has been very clearly advertised for a while now, but there is no big driver to affect our weather with this, that (from the SSW) petered out a couple of weeks ago, and the strat is drifting now into summer mode as the vortex disappears. So one hopes the weaker drivers of summer edge the tropospheric patterns to something more favourable in due course, but for now the wait continues…

Mike Poole thanks Mike I'm afraid I'll breach every NW filter imaginable if I type what I really think of the last 6 months of "weather " locally. As always, in unsettled phases the NW cops for the majority of Atlantic systems but this period has been beyond the pale. Like many others I'm desperate for some warmth and sunshine but I'm struggling to see anything resembling this on the 00z NWP . Late season SSW is disastrous for Spring so I always get a feeling of dread when we see SSW's in late Winter. One year we'll see a major SSW in November and get the benefit HL blocking when most of us want to see it,ala Dec/Jan NOT April/May..

Grand dry day. Swallows back chattering excitedly on electric wires. Theres's plenty of insects already due to the wetness. I fear a plague of midges this year.

Overnight low of -1.6c, ground frost noticeable until sunrise. All tops clear and sunny intervals. Feeling pleasant in the sunshine.

Rush2019 Thought it was just us covered in moss! Never seen so much. Anything that hasn't moved has got thickly coated by this spring.

Lovely day, lots of sunshine. Had another walk, canal beautiful, made a brew by some classic cars , could feel the warmth of the sun tingling my face, UV levels increasing. A pleasant evening ahead here.

Ooh hello:

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 1 May (day 7) Could we see that warmer easterly right at the beginning of May? Both flavours of ECM plus the UKMO seem to think it's possible... 0z ensemble means, out to Thu 9 May (day 15) The ECM mean wants to support its op on the idea of warmer air coming in briefly from the east right at the beginning of May. Beyond that we have clear signs of anticyclonic activity in our vicinity in early May, but with an equally clear risk that this will remain too far to our west or southwest for us to warm up. Why did it feel so darn cold when I woke up this morning?! Current temperature (colours) and wind (lines) at 850hPa (left) and at the surface (right), screenshotted from https://earth.nullschool.net/ at something like 10am this morning.

0.6 mm rain over night from a little feature in the early hours. WRF had been showing that for awhile. It's done well this year with the mesoscale.

Another good one. Got to laugh because otherwise we will cry.

Ground finally dry enough to roll again this evening but the north wind is very cold.

iand61Believe it or not, I cut my grass last on 30th March which was incredibly early in these parts but it was so warm then and grass sprouting! Now today, currently -2.4 c with a deep covering of snow for the past 4/5 days. Forecast to warm up over the coming weekend.

Cut the grass on Sunday, cut it again today although with the blade set a notch lower and I’ve took as much off now as I did last time around. at least it looks more like a lawn and less like a upland meadow now but the sooner it dries out and growth slows down the easier it gets.

Imagine being someone who is overjoyed by grey & wet! Would it be something like this? Dean Gray, the drizzle lover- "This has been the BEST 14 months I have ever lived through on this planet!!!! This stunning spell that started in March 2023 with those utterly stunning grey slate skies & that tantalising rain hammering against my skin for days on end has left me in somewhat of a euphoric daze. We had a disgusting blip late May & June 2023 with that absolutely vile sunshine & worryingly dry conditions that could have brought forward extinction of the human race but I decided to take matters into my own hands. I drew a pentagram, got some candles, 100 dead Spring rabbits & a photo of the sun with a knife stomped through it on a dead tree trunk. I performed this sacrifice to Beelzebub & in return I begged him for the UK weather to be like March 2023 forever!!!" "My wish was granted. One of the greatest months in UK Summer history occurred with the utterly perfect July 2023 & August, despite a few annoying blips of filthy sun mid month, kept a mainly dull theme. The 1st half of September was absolutely unacceptable though & I thundered back over to Beelzebub in a hurricane of rage & demanded a return to the weather I WANT. ITS ALL ABOUT ME I screamed in his face. He told me I need to up my sacrifice & so Immediately I unclenched my fists & rushed off to gather the items for my next sacrifice. Upon digging up my expired grandparents & placing them onto the tree trunk surrounded once again by the pentagram & candles, topped with the sun photo, this time with FIVE knives through it, I anticipated my desire to come true." "The weather changed almost immediately after mid month & then I spat out my caramel latte when a few days of 25c & sun appeared in early October....REALLY!!!!!! I charged back over to Beelzebub but he stopped me in panic & exclaimed that the man over there was upset at the poor weather & also started a sacrifice to him & of course I ahem...ended his journey on earth there & then. Ever since, I've had it all my way hahahahaha. Grey, wet, grey, wet, grey, wet, it's all because of me! 2023 was meant to be the start of a Mediterranean climate in the UK but I alone managed to change it to a slightly warmer version of the Faroe Islands!!!" "Nowadays I just dance in the streets in my red lingerie in a blur of complete euphoric bliss just knowing, this is our climate forever now! If anyone even dares go to Beelzebub with a sacrifice to change things, there will be dire, DIRE consequences. You have been warned. I love my life!" Yes I was bored & yes I am weird

A lovely day although still a nagging cool feel to things. at least it’s dry though so probably worth cutting the grass before things no doubt deteriorate towards the weekend.

A pleasant walk out into the woods at bluebell time.

A lovely day April day couldn’t ask for more

Stunning while waiting for my flight to Gatwick

Precisely, just posted this in the moans thread. This time of year always has a greater likelihood of northern blocking, but a late season SSW simply locks in a pattern of high latitude blocking for far longer than we’d otherwise expect, which more often than not results in the UK being a trough magnet or keeping us under cool northerly or easterly winds. It happened last year too. Until this works its way through the trop, we’re unlikely to get anything substantially warm and dry until mid May at the earliest.

SunnyG Yeah, 20 degrees is possible for next week. So weird, I've never seen a situation that after snow it already feels like Summer. It's only taking a week until we can wear t-shirts and shorts.

Cold feel to start the day was 5°C 6am. Blue sky and broken cloud, looks clearer to the east. Yesterday max was 12.7°C.

We all know what will win out instead....

Iceaxecrampon I know Keldas well, the bluebells are a treat. I remember visiting them in mid May 2020, north slopes and they were in bloom, whereas they were barely out same time 2021. Another fine day here, turning into a decent dry spell in the Lake District and we look best placed to see least rain in England in days ahead..As said this is the lakeland dry season, all quite normal to see eastern and south parts plagued by cloud this time of year whilst we bask in sunshine. Chilly frosty nights at present.

WillinGlossop Yes, its an impressive covering for so late but not a great fan of snowfall at this time of year. Just want some warm sunshine now but so much more appealing is a continental climate with its more extreme variety of weather. Hope you lot get some decent warmth and sunshine soon ? C

Keldas. Glenridding Yearly visit to see the Bluebells. But we’re a week or so too early The Legendary Lung buster start up to Helvellyn. If you know you know. For a change we descended. Classic Grizedale. Memories of Nethermost Pike ahead in full winter conditions many a time. St Sunday to the left. Chill N NE breeze. Decent in The Sun when it broke. A good day.

Something to watch but signs of a WWB progressing east into May which may generate mid-lattitude blocking closer to mid month.

A decent couple of days here after the damp weather on Monday. Depressed temperatures for the time of year, but pleasant enough in sunny breaks, reached 11.6C today.

Not a bad day but a lot of cloud still. Sunny intervals rather at a premium again especially this afternoon. Max 11.7°C.

Azazel I guess I picked the wrong month to go bare legged in My Kilts......a tad raw & windy around me trossachs I can tell You!!! I've normally had a least 1 hammock day by now, sometimes in March, but not a bloody chance this Year so far! Luckily I found a 'accidental bar stool' for my 'accidental Bar' so I can pop out and make use of the sunny ten mins we get allotted from time to time!!!

In Absence of True Seasons The average high in London at the end of April is 17c, and we aren't getting near that in the next week at least. For all the talk of this April being warm, we will probably end up with below average high temps. It's only above average by the mean because the nights have been mild due to the incessant cloudiness. We will end up duller than the average March.

Certainty on models have been quite good for the past few weeks, although there is some uncertainties past day 6 on majority this morning. Of course the likelihood of a dry settled warm spell seems unlikely, but there were hints a few days ago, and the MET ensembles for 192 seems a little interested in the idea. Icon also interested this morning on a decent ridge from the Azores. Wouldn't rule anything else, seems the uncertainty is coming from the stratosphere behaviour I believe. We all know how rapidly changes can occur.

Who likes snow at this time of the year ? Fourth consecutive day of persistent snowfall in these parts. Currently -1.6c in the village with a deep covering. Strange though as it was 30c in the valleys 10 days ago. The joys of spring ! c

Rush2019 I didn’t but my nieces work colleague and friend did… she cheered her on from three spots… we met up with my niece afterwards and said she’d completed it in a good time… saw lots of peeps that had run it afterwards.. Stayed in Marylebone and had good walk around Little Venice and Camden Sunday…had lovely brunch around corner from where we stayed called cafe leville on the Regents canal Ukv can do one

It turned out okay in the end, still cool & breezy with some light showers across the Eastern Moors when I was having a short wander around the Bronze-Age relics at Barbrook but this Western side of the Peak District has gotten more of the sunshine for the day.

Just walked the dog in thermals and my huge winter coat and bobble hat. The wind is absolutely raw. Just in the process of booking the second of two holidays abroad this summer (Spain in June and south of France in august). I’m not letting the god awful climate of this place ruin my mental and physical health for 2 years running

Sun's come out in last 30 mins, only 10c but feels pleasant enough in the sun. Just giving our outsde sidegate a final paint, so weather is v useable

Sentinel Bacteria in the sea will be transported away from the source by underwater currents, wind and wave action. Yes it will be diluted but it can still infect. Good luck anyway, I hope you don’t fall sick when you do take the plunge

That’s probably a rare statement that both summer lovers & winter lovers will agree on!!

The aim of this thread to hopefully jinx us out of this infinite satanic pattern has clearly not been working lol. Here we are, still in a never ending abyss of grey & wet raw sewage except it has somehow managed to get worse with it becoming chillier as the days get longer! For me, this is turning into the worst year I have ever experienced & 2023 was bad enough but at least that one had a good February, acceptable May, good June & September! This one has had nothing except a sunny enough January. Wow, thanks so much weather gods for a good January & warmth rest of year....

I'm seeing a lot of well-experienced forecasters/chasers becoming very concerned about the upcoming prospects from Thursday onwards. Fortunately on night shifts so will be able to follow the entire event. If only I'd decided to go chasing out in the States a month earlier

Another grey lid day to add to the previous 1000's, cold, windy and occasionally spitting with rain, what a steaming pile our climate has become. Barring a couple of storms, this year is the most boring yet too and there is quite some competition there in recent times. SAD from Oct - May these days and seems to be extended each year. Sunlight, warmth and stormy breakdowns soon please weather Gods before I go insane.

Im not surprised by the spcs upgrade for thursday although it is very rare for them to upgrade the day 3 risk. A lot of shorter range models have the dryline firing. Any discrete supercell that can sustain itself will be capable of golfball-baseball sized hail, 70+ mph straight line wind gusts and strong-violent tornadoes. I also think the spcs decision to upgrade was partly due to the csu machine learning showing the equivalent of a high risk for the area, never seen that before! 21z RAP very potent, two dryline bulges one in Texas panhandle and another in Northern Kansas. Soundings from Texas panhandle Soundings from Northern Kansas Wonder if we see a 30% upgrade for fri and sat tomorrow morning, looking at models at the min both days certainly meet the threshold.

In Absence of True Seasons I am reading the journals of Lord Byron and he calls it a "preposterous climate". And that was back in 1812.

Scorcher it's been rubbish here the last few days, max temps of 10.2C, 9.7C, 8.0C and 9.6C, little sunshine, showers and a persistent raw wind (apart from yesterday when it was calm). 7 days of April left and we're already on 120% of normal rainfall, just 91 hours of sun and not a single clear day. Spring 2024 is making 2023 look good so far!

Methuselah Tamara is a great miss on this thread. I loved her indebth analysis.

Way better than forecast. That high is hanging on for dear life today. Never the less, copious amounts of strong mid-spring sunshine, a light breeze & temps around average. A welcome day after yesterday.