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Showing most liked content on 22/02/20 in Posts

  1. 9 likes
    As far as I'm aware the term as used in meteorology originally applied to a specific event such as the 'Spanish Plume' which, put very simplistically, is the movement of a warm (hot) airmass north from Iberia. From this the word plume has been plucked to refer, more or less, to any advcetion of warm air from the south. To refer to a cold plume merely adds another expression to the NW glossary
  2. 9 likes
    Temperature is 10C colder compared to yesterday. Currently 2C with moderate snow, the hills have a slight covering. Bank. Heavier snow out at Braemar. Latest update from the Met office, for this area, is for heavy snow 11am..
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    Heavy again in Braemar. Really wet snow though.
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    Planning to hit the hills after 12pm, as any precipitation should have cleared by then. Decent windchill temps, -5C, and bright conditions should make for an excellent hike. Great opportunity to test out a new synthetic insulation jacket. Ridiculously light weight at 335g and I have doubts it will keep me warm. We shall see....
  6. 4 likes
    Heavy snow here with thunder & lightning
  7. 3 likes
    OK, do not Google wetbaws, I repeat do not Google wetbaws. Especially not in front of your kids
  8. 3 likes
    I thought that too but looked up definition and it is shape and not direction.
  9. 3 likes
    Looks good but preciptation charts are unimpressive
  10. 3 likes
    The tpv and the elongated and waving front(s) are the key players over the next few days The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight The patchy rain associated with the cold fronts tracking south down the country should clear this morning leaving a mostly cloudy day and quite mild. Different picture over Scotland and N. Ireland where it will be very windy with gales along with frequent wintry showers, which could fall as snow down to quite low levels and thus blizzard conditions. Note the marked temp contrast. But as can be seen waves are forming on the fronts to the west and this brings moderate rain to areas of England and Wales that certainly don't need it at the moment through the latter part of this evening and overnight The rain will slowly clear during Sunday morning but still windy with squally wintry showers over northern Scotland. But note another wave is developing on the front away to the south west and this engages with the jet and deepens rapidly as it tracks north east to be near Scotland by midday Monday. There is still a little uncertainty on how this will develop as how it engages with the jet is critical so perhaps another look at this a bit later. At the moment it looks like bringing a fair bit of rain, perhaps some snow on the hills on the leading edge, and some strong winds The low and fronts quickly clear and by Tuesday the country is well and truly in the grip of the upper trough and thus it continues windy with frequent wintry showers in the now much cooler air , courtesy of troughs tracking east in the circulation A not dissimilar day on Wednesday
  11. 3 likes
    Putting aside the nice ending to the GFS18 hrs run this amplification showing up at day ten is a surprise and the ECM also has more amplification at that stage aswell . The background signals aren’t great to put it mildly. So it’s questionable as to where the models are finding this from . Generally I tend to be very suspicious of anything the GFS shows past day ten as we see a drop down in the resolution but all runs today have removed the limpet Euro high and displaced that to the nw. And the amplified wave starts before that . Because of the state of the PV you’d not even expect that to appear . So although pleased to see this amplification I’d be very wary of that . The discrepancy over what exactly the MJO is doing could be I suppose one factor here , some measures of that have that in phase 7 and about to edge into phase 8 at lowish amplitude but others have it going nowhere and stuck in the inner circle . There was also talk of the current signal being obscured and not showing up properly on the RMM index .
  12. 3 likes
    We really have taken a doing this month. Just imagine if it had all fallen as snaw... *sigh*
  13. 3 likes
    Compares with my rain gauge near Halkirk getting just 76mm so far this month. In the few years I've been working on and off up there, I don't recall any really wet spell. Coming back down to the Black Isle this afternoon, Easter Ross fields are as flooded as they were when I went north on Monday and we still have a moat at HC Towers - but we've had little compared to most folk here further south. Next week is still looking wintry.
  14. 3 likes
    Possible storm coming on Monday for Scotland but there's still come uncertainty over it as explained in this video So what do the models show this evening? Well between the GFS, ECM and ICON all show a similar track with the low passing over highlands, Which would mean the strongest winds would be over the central belt from about 12pm to 9pm on Monday I think it would bring very strong gusts inland as the low pressure is passing right over Scotland most of the lows and storms we've had this winter have been out in the Atlantic this time it looks like it's going to actually move over inland. So what gusts can we expect? Between the GFS, ECM and ICON they show mainly 60 to 70mph with some exposed parts much higher it's difficult to say at this stage and would need to wait until the day before when the higher res models give a clearer picture on what to expect it could still downgrade and not come to much or move North as the video mentions and wouldn't be as bad. GFS 12z take on the gusts, 12pm 60 to 70 mph in the South West possibly just under 80mph for exposed parts, 3pm Similar wind speed speeds but moving further inland, 6pm and 9pm Widespread gusts over 60mph inland with exposed parts over 70mph, 12am Tuesday winds start to ease in the West but still remain strong in the East with 60mph gusts still being widespread for many parts,
  15. 2 likes
    Noticed that the Spring thread is a bit late this year. Who's ready for it? Had enough of this dreary Winter now. BRING ON THE WARMTH!
  16. 2 likes
    It is,and didn't call me Shirley.
  17. 2 likes
    Cats got into bed before I was up this morning - sure sign of crap weather - slush gathering in gutters, the street resembles a river and the wind is rushing through the shrubs and hedges. There are essential outdoor duties awaiting today....
  18. 2 likes
    All the extended sniping by some does get a bit tedious. You have made your points again and again. It tends to clutter up this thread for no benefit.
  19. 2 likes
    Four runs now in a row now that the GFS is amplifying the upstream pattern towards day ten . If that amplified wave helps to pull the PV towards the nw then that will open up an opportunity to the ne , the orientation of the PV as in the sausage ne/sw is what we’re looking for . So the amplification works like a clock anti clockwise on the Canadian side it pulls that sw and the bit to the ne works nw . The gap then opens up to the ne . That’s the plan ! The GFS makes a meal of the shortwave over the UK but if we ended up with the PV elongated like that then that’s normally a decent correlation for pressure rising over Scandi .
  20. 2 likes
    What I’m looking for in the models at present is some letup in the current pattern for those that have, or will have had a terrible time with flooding. For the rest of us, some dry days and some sign of spring. Here’s the moan.... the incessant hunt for snow in the model thread is very boring. A few terrible bores in there. Isn’t there more to offer in meteorology then snow? I know they get likes and all. But it’s almost verging on unhealthy in my view.
  21. 2 likes
    I strongly agree with the bold bit, since mid-December when that fateful trop and strat vortex coupling thingy took place, model bias as you highlight is clearly obvious, any significant amplification has failed to verify, and that is true for all models, not just the ones that people usually tend to castigate. Biases in models are present all the time, of course, but in a normal winter, the weather itself would be varying from mild to cold to stormy etc. so the model biases would be harder to see. I reiterate what I said in a previous post, some here wrote off winter in October, I didn't, but from mid- December it was practically a winter write off - but two things Have we been 'lucky' in that the current wave train of Atlantic huge storms didn't start in mid Dec, but at about the turn of this month? what will the endgame be? How long will this horrid period of weather last, and what will follow it - and the latter may depend on the strat evolution.
  22. 2 likes
    A wee trip to Aviemore with PG junior. Wed: rain. Thurs: beefy snow showers and sunshine - felt like proper winter. Fri: back to persisting it down. Flooding in the countryside surrounding the A9 on the drive hame looked significant. Back in Comrie, rainfall for the month so far is 250.3mm (30 year average is 79.1mm - for the whole month). Starting to wonder if we're heading into (or have reached?) record breaking territory a la December 2015. The Earn remains scarily high and it's hosing it down. Again.
  23. 2 likes
    Constant frontal rain, drizzle, no sun, low cloud, short daylengths, too cold, more windy, too gloomy, too dark, colourless and drab scenery with skeletal looking leafless trees, no snow, basically a mindnumbing nuclear winter that goes on and on relentlessly.
  24. 1 like
    But, so long as the meaning is easily divined, who cares what the 'official' definition be?
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    Not surprised Newcastle has gone. Heavy rain through night up here seemed to take longer than forecast to clear.
  27. 1 like
    Where are you headed? I was going to go out but wind speeds look too high for my liking. Hope to get out a bit tomorrow instead!
  28. 1 like
    Would not surprise me to see a few snow events for our region in March (and not high ground events) C.S
  29. 1 like
    I am not looking for cold now , I want dry sunny and pleasant temps , so sick to the back teeth of this current set up Unfortunatly it looks like turning colder , which means the rain and wind will be colder urghhhhhhh I have a feeling March will be colder than Jan and Feb , because the weather likes to take the Michael
  30. 1 like
    Out working and seen some distant flashes of Lightning over towards Lanark direction just before sunrise..
  31. 1 like
    Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm) 158.6 1833 152.7 1923 143.6 1950 143.2 1990 143.2 1977 142.1 1937 136.7 2014 132.0 1916 131.7 1900 130.0 1848 129.6 1966 129.1 1768 124.2 1925 123.5 1915 116.0 1958 115.3 1812 115.3 1767 115.1 2002 114.9 1995 114.1 1951 114.0 1823 113.5 1776 112.1 1904 111.6 2007 ~111 2020 (up to 21st Feb)
  32. 1 like
    Forgot my 2nd choices 2.45 newcastle donna's Delight 3.35 kempton dashing perk
  33. 1 like
    210mm here. First time I've looked at SEPA data. Cheers Catch/101_North
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    Just think what could have happened if the Whaley bridge reservoir hadn't been drained to a safe level. That wall and overflow wouldn't have stood up to this amount of hammer.
  36. 1 like
    Just driven the M60 from 21 to 24 and up M67. had to constantly correct the steering due to buffeting.
  37. 1 like
    David , tell me your logic as to why we have not ,unknowingly, been importing Covid-19 since Jan? Look at what we know about the virus, it qualities,its abilities, and why WE ,here in the UK are immune? See what has happened in Japan/Singapore/S.Korea/Iran/Italy, and the links to 'China' the majority of the cases there show, and why we are not days away from our first 'non connected' confirmed cases (and the headache that tracking 'contacts'/areas contaminated brings?) Please try and be realistic and not just 'ever hopeful'! EDIT: No matter the 'confirmed' cases that we know know may well be spreading among us though 'cured', how many others have arrived from Singapore/Japan/S.Korea/Iran/Italy the past 2 weeks?
  38. 1 like
    The wind is really bad tonight much worse than dennis, not named and only a yellow warning
  39. 1 like
    I don’t care anymore all seasons ducked up probably have snow in summer then leaves falling off the trees in Spring and then growing back in Autumn
  40. 1 like
    Kempton 1.15 - Master Tommytucker 1.50 - Nanabelle Solo 2.25 - Pic D'Orhy Ch'tibello - Nap 3.02 - Buzz 3.35 - Adrien Du Pont & Black Corton Lingfield 2.05 - Furious 3.15 - Bangkok Newcastle Petite Power & Alminar
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    Lets hope the GFS or any other model shows something more wintry as time passes. Some arctic cold air drifting towards the British Isles along with some snow could be possible on the 29th, but once again, it's just way too far out, and is unlikely to verify. And it is rightly so, as @nick sussex says in the post above.
  43. 1 like
    ECM 12z ens, the cold snap early next week looks like our best bet. The north and higher ground might do best.
  44. 1 like
    71mm of rain there over the last 36 hours according to SEPA. We've had about 36mm in the last 24hrs and around 50mm over the last 36 hours. All made worse by the recent wet weather!
  45. 1 like
    It wouldn't be a massive surprise - as there really isn't much to beat out of the 3 winter months.
  46. 1 like
    Actually, off topic for this thread but in Summer 2007 55,000 homes were affected by floods in UK; around 2000 have been affected in last week or so. This from The Guardian - "493 projects were completed between 2015 and 2018 protecting over 150,000 homes that were prone to flooding." And.... "A further 499 projects were due to begin construction between 2019 and 2021, protecting a further 341,875 homes." Source: The Guardian
  47. 1 like
    Heavy snow looks likely for the majority of Scotland on Monday - especially in the morning hours
  48. 1 like
    Looking at the GEFS 0z postage stamps, snow could be coming to a backyard near you next week and even beyond!
  49. 1 like
    You are not wrong sir! I'm sitting here with my roll and coffee and wondering if it really was the correct decision! I hate buses! On the plus side I have no reason to not stop for a pint after work
  50. 1 like
    A very wet day to come today, especially in the north, where heavy rain and strong winds could cause disruption. Friday morning On Friday morning, areas of heavy rain will be present over Northern Ireland, Scotland, and northern England. This rain will be especially heavy over the hills, where disruption is possible. Along with the heavy rain will be strong winds, with 30-40mph gusts possible, perhaps causing further disruption. Some of the rain over the hills of Scotland could turn into sleet/snow. In the south of England and Wales, it will be a dry start to Friday morning, with the winds not as strong in the north. It will be a cloudy morning however, especially in Wales, where the odd patch of light rain/drizzle is possible. It will be a cold start, with temperatures in the morning ranging from 2-7c in the south, and ranging from 3-8c in the north. Friday afternoon On Friday afternoon, the rain will still be present over Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern England, and also Wales would be getting some rain in the afternoon onwards. This rain once again will be heavy over the hills of these places. Some sleet/snow is once again possible over the hills of Scotland. Over southern England though, they should see a drier afternoon, not particularly sunny, but it will be a cloudy afternoon with the odd patch of drizzle/rain possible. Temperatures in the afternoon over in the south should range from 7-12c. And in the north, the temperatures should range from 4-11c. Friday evening/overnight On Friday evening/overnight, the rain over Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern England and Wales will still be present, with the heaviest of the rain being over the hills of these places. Disruption is possible from the amount of rain it produces, and along with the heavy rain, strong winds is still possible, gusting around 30-40mph in places. Friday overnight, however, will see some showers packing into Scotland and Northern Ireland. Should they be heavy, hail and thunder is possible, along with some of the showers merging into longer spells of rain. Due to the low temperatures, these showers could produce some snow in the north of Scotland. Elsewhere, it will be a cloudy and mostly dry night, with once again, the odd drizzle/rain patch can't be ruled out. It will be mild in places in the night, with temperatures ranging from 7-10c in the south, and 2-10c in the north. Enjoy the rest of your morning!
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