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  1. 37 likes
    Would that be this winter, only 8 days old, with another 82 days to go? Which has already delivered a lovely cold start to December with widespread frosts for many, and an Atlantic storm now in the western approaches? Some have been reporting hail and thunder in the south west today as well. Goodness me, hasn't this been a promising start to the season? No reason to lose heart so soon, my friend, just because we're not all buried in snow - yet. Every year I see the best winter weather conditions develop almost overnight from nothing in the 5-7 day period so we should all keep looking because the next great blizzard may only be just around the corner!
  2. 30 likes
    EXCITING!! WXCHARTS WWW.WXCHARTS.COM A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE and GEFS plots WX Charts have added new ECMWF data which includes Precip type, 850hPa temperatures, Snow Depth & Wind Gusts! This is an absolute fantastic new rescource we didn't really have access to before!
  3. 24 likes
    Plus its the NH..... UKMO will forever outperform the GFS in Europe > Another example today with ECM / UKMO identical at 120 V the random GFS. Anyone putting GFS above UKMO for Europe has been wearing horses blinkers for years. Next we will be rating the 06z GFS .....
  4. 21 likes
    Well, after last year's fiasco, I would have thought the -- albeit frightening -- realisation that 'every other long range Professional forecaster' can still get things wrong, might have started to sink in by now. And, that LRFers are human too...? But I guess not!
  5. 17 likes
    Plenty of interest in the 12z ensembles this evening.. We have cold shots, potential snow makers and even an all out Estly deep in fi.. Potentially exciting times ahead, or is it just me being like a big kid at Xmas, who still can't wait to open his presents..
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    Not saying the following charts are anything interesting for the UK, but just look at the vortex, if you can find it. That's just not 'normal' for mid to late Dec. Now that might not actually happen as its only a forecast, and in FI. But its also coming from the GFS, which in previous years was well noted for "reverting to climatology" in the latter stages.
  9. 16 likes
    That is one of the most insane GFS fantasy Island runs I have ever seen. (And there have been many ) At one stage there is 27 to 30 hours continuous snowfall for parts of Scotland - just need to count this down now into the reliable! Marginal snow events galore on this (for many of us) but they have delivered big snowfalls over the years - would take a Winter of that! As ever let’s see what becomes reality when the time comes.
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  11. 15 likes
    Well it's been quite a week model wise. We've gone from blizzard of the century for southern England to bog standard slightly north of West airstream with a rain and gales darn sarf and bit of white for the usual suspects oop north.There's been some bemoaning of the fact that there is little in the way of deep cold to tap into even though for much of the time we will be on the north(cold) side of the jet. Yet the great thing about our climate is that we do not require deep cold uppers of minus 10 to bring extraordinarily deep snow. So once again I will wheel out my old chestnut (freshly polished I might add for this new winter season.) The deepest snow (12-18 inches on low ground and drifting to 30 feet) of my nigh on sixty years here on the south coast fell with uppers of minus 2!!! Enjoy the winter ride guys.
  12. 15 likes
    Agreed. To be fair to @Steve Murr I think he threw his toys out the pram early this morning with regards to...it’s all over post! We all view the model output with a bit of IMBY mentality which is also fair enough. For the North (and a few other parts of the UK and Ireland) today’s ECM, GFS and Met Office outlook show a potential wintry spell of weather from Tuesday onwards. (Especially towards the end of the week) So for me being based in Scotland I now want the current charts all be to correct and countdown to 24 hours away! Of course I would love every member on here (who loves cold/snow) to see snowfall sooner rather than later! Onwards and upwards!
  13. 15 likes
    As I’ve been posting, the real window of opportunity remains, and always has been, at the end of next week. The Azores High far enough west and Arctic profile very respectable on the UKMO +144 to make me think all still to play for.
  14. 14 likes
    How can something be all over when it never existed in the first place ,apart from in a computer lol
  15. 13 likes
    Here we go with a fresh model discussion thread - the plan of action is the same as ever, so please keep the discussion in here to the models. For non model related chat and banter, please use the Winter chat, moans and ramps thread. Not a fan of the cold hunting rollercoaster at this time of year? There's a new thread for you to use. One change we do have as of today is a new thread - this one is a space for those who perhaps don't enjoy the rollercoaster ride that the model discussion becomes in Winter, and would prefer to chat about the current and upcoming weather in a quieter, maybe less cold slanted discussion. If that's you, please head here: Current and future weather - nowcasting, models and teleconnections - early Winter Interested in teleconnections and their impacts? Head to the teleconnections discussion If you're wanting to learn more about the weather and meteorology, it's definitely worth taking a look at our new Learning and Research area. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere
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    The place is buzzing... I wonder why!! Some great 6Z ensembles for next week, infact there is cold air in place, or close by on many of the runs throughout the duration. Pretty exciting considering this time last year. Could this be the year when the jet remains punch drunk throughout the entire winter!! Perhaps low solar minimum overriding other global factors!! Even though its mere speculation, it ramains a possibility... Fab stuff.
  18. 12 likes
    Looks like it. Exact positioning - to east or west of UK up for grabs.
  19. 12 likes
    UKMO arctic profile is good I'd expect to see the Iberian/Az High dragged out west in the next frames
  20. 12 likes
    Yes, and UKMO extended at 168t has most of the British Isles in colder Pm air flow with a developing frontal wave heading towards the South coast.! C
  21. 10 likes
    Clutching at straws here, but Ive dug out a few deep FI 12z ensembles that show at least some kind of cold shot, and a couple that show some deep cold to the NE. If we haven't got hope, what else have we got! If it means waiting till the new year, so be it... Sooner or later we will strike gold... And anyone feeling a little negative and without hope right now.... Read the daily express big story.... Snowmaggedon is a coming....
  22. 10 likes
    'tis the season to post lovely wintry pics Thank you for all the beauties so far, let many more sparkly seasonal days follow. As has been mentioned, no freezing fog here overnight so no ice scraping off the car this morning after yesterday's first outing of the scraper dug out of the boot. Nonsuch Park looked like a winter wonderland yesterday morning and the dog was very confused by the frozen puddles
  23. 9 likes
    Putting the average output of the Gfs, Ecmwf and Gem together we see its showing a Very unsettled period for the next 7 days atleast which I know many are fully aware now with bouts of heavy rain and very windy perhaps stormy conditions at times particularly atm Sunday night into Monday morning. Still a little uncertainty regarding that but it's likely.. with the winds shown atm strongest for the far west and southwest at first then to more Eastern areas towards Monday morning gales a widespread feature for many parts of England, Wales, Ireland and Northern Ireland. Again Still a little uncertain though. 6am Sunday.. 6am Monday.. Colder showery conditions between low pressure systems next week this wintry for northern parts at times. Just for interest the Dwd Icon really deepened the low to the northwest for tuesday on its midday run. An exceptionally deep low centre of 936mb but now a more "sensible" 944mb still very low ofcourse if that indeed came off. Shows gales for some associated with a potent weather front with heavy rain sweeping through during Tuesday evening/night with that centre drifting southeast in a similar fashion to Sundays low albeit with the centre of pressure rising markedly as it does so. What it showed on its earlier update.. Wind gusts. Note these are at 10 metres. Green =60-70mph yellow = 80mph dark orange/red= 100mph dark red = in excess of 120mph which was shown close to the centre but not now. Earlier update.. This evening.. Wind gusts.. Much weaker but still very strong winds wrapped around this with a squally weather front pushing across England and Wales. But its still 5 days away so don't take these charts for tuesday too literally above in regards to the precise details and depth of that low but It highlights the potential for stormy weather at times next week. So the Ecm, Gfs and Gem output averaged out For next week.. Tuesday.. Wednesday.. Thursday.. Friday.. Saturday.. Very unsettled with the jetstream remaining over and at times just to the south of the uk towards day 10 with snow at times on hills further north perhaps lower levels occasionally. There will be some drier and brighter periods between these systems so not a total washout.
  24. 9 likes
    This is going to be chaos if this pans out:
  25. 9 likes
    GFS 18z finished now, and this chart is of interest: The strat chart which doesn't show massive warming, but does show a massive displacement, so no SSW, but referring to my previous post, this doesn't point to revolution, but to continuity, which is why I'm thinking weak strat vortex, but no SSW in immediate future, southerly tracking jet, wedges, marginal snow. Will be an interesting watch, this, in December...
  26. 8 likes
    Someone typed it by mistake years ago and it kinda stuck. At least it did with me since I am a sarcastic git.
  27. 8 likes
    its all gone tits up in the mad house unless you live in Scotland... oh wait hang on we do live in Scotland...
  28. 8 likes
    Gfs 18z completey fine.. Not all aspects of blocking are going to be eye catching run..2run.. And that's fully expected..the profile/genre remains![email protected] outbreak. And tonight's top of the pack 00z..Will I'm sure hold further interest to say the least...
  29. 7 likes
    A rather interesting pattern shown by the Gfs in FI with a deep low moving towards us only to be stopped completely by a sudden pressure build ahead of it deflecting it south with a chilly Easterly breeze.
  30. 7 likes
    Yes..but there's some clockwork to unwind b4 we get to this...and as-again...any macro movement of cells/placement.. In 2/3 days time these synoptic...could look very alien... So definitely some very intriguing watching to come.
  31. 7 likes
    ECM follows UKMO, even by 120 look at the diff on the jet stream around France, prob digging 500 miles further south on the ECM - like the UKMO .
  32. 7 likes
    Gales and rain or gales and snow....the only 2 options for me with displaced PV....no HLB, displaced PV....it will bring disruptive weather, what we are seeing now is the South won’t get the snow but will get the gales and saturating rainfalls .. timing for me is right re occurrence. Disruption either way, this is going to be quite some ride....and it isn’t settled in detail yet....although the ‘theme’ is. imo yesterday is plausible and unfortunately so is today....it’s right on the edge. What isn’t is benign very mild days. BFTP
  33. 7 likes
    @Kirkcaldy Weather brilliant post in the mad house.. i fear it may fall on deaf ears tho. its the same every year. i give it till the weekend before we get that bloke from crewe totally calling December a bust along with the usual over reactive members.
  34. 7 likes
    To say the evolution following on next week is tricky is an understatement with the conflicting energy flows as colder air is introduced into the north of the UK as can be seen on Monday But by Tuesday the Atlantic predominates as fronts associated with the deep low sweep across the country bringing some heavy rain and strong winds and snow in the colder air in the north but whether it reaches low levels remains to be seen. Quite a tricky call and not one to be made at this range Once the fronts clear continuing unsettled but this getting too far ahead
  35. 7 likes
    That rain for Friday takes a little longer to clear eastwards for southern regions but clears by the afternoon. 3am Friday.. 9am.. 12pm.. Regarding Tuesday's elongated frontal system modelled by the Gfs and Ecm the Gfs still shows this coming into fairly cold air with heavy rain moving in falling as snow for northern areas along with Scotland. Bare in mind this is marginal and the Gfs does have a thing with exaggerating snow extent but you get the idea. A week away so overall its more about the overall pattern atm but the Gfs has been pretty consistent with this. I won't go any further because things get very flip floppy and complicated beyond Tuesday you could say how things evolve from Sunday to Tuesday is complicated too.. which is why caution is somewhat needed with the area of snow above. Talking about Sunday that low I was watching closely a few days ago the Gfs strengthens the winds around this system a little more with gales in places before it clears into the north sea.
  36. 7 likes
    Exactly the UK remains on the cold side of the Jet (East and North) and that jet profile through days 10-12 on GFS and ECM is very conducive to Scandi height rises which means if we get past the initial trigger phases then cold should be locked in for a while.
  37. 7 likes
    ECM day 10 4 days ago V the 6 day today remarkable consistency
  38. 7 likes
    It's quite epic via gfs 12z..which comes 2nd in verification in sister runs.. And let's face it we've been saying minimal wedge placement..and cell exactions mean possible major uturn in forecast perplexion.. So it's possibly as right as it is WRONG. Great evolution...and why not indeed... not a million miles from some embarrasing *LRFs... Again..'perhaps'!!
  39. 7 likes
    Yay, my Snow Dance worked!!!! One happy Surrey lass if this actually happened!!! Far out but at least it's nice to see something that gives SOME hope than dreary, zonal charts that give NO hope!!!❄❄x
  40. 7 likes
    Quite a contrast between UKMO and GFS 144 this morning. I would take a stab that UKMO is wrong here as ll the other output has been consistently showing some amplification including ECM GFS good start getting plenty of cold air across the UK with a nice blob of heights heading for Greenland due tot he disrupting LP. Looks superb at 180 with Atlantic amplification beginning and ready to link with Greenland heights and snow pushing up from the South
  41. 6 likes
    Wet and wild again this morning with huge amounts of water on the road going over the hill to work. Typical West of Scotland winters day really! Seem to be behind on everything this year. Out in the dark last night dismantling the net off the trampoline which I normally do in November and the car is only in today for its winter tyres. Discovered that the cost of tyres for the new car is well over double the cost for the old one. The wife is not amused!
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    Some quite significant changes to tonight's midnight and tomorrows midday fax charts this morning. Could well be blizzard condition over the norther Scottish mountains And Tuesday is looking pretty foul in the north
  45. 6 likes
    The image I posted shows heights higher than the previous fame, and I stand by my comment where iv's seen worse PV profiles over Greenland The lack of snow in these charts is clearly getting to you, your aggrieve posting style is a bit OTT maybe the mods can give you a week off?
  46. 6 likes
    Hmm Start of March 1995 and ECM 0z mean chart at 240 hrs Then from January 1984
  47. 6 likes
    BBC weather has me down for cold and possible snaw chance for 9 days from the 9th until the end of the forecast period. could be some fun and games to be had. BRING ME MY SNAW!!
  48. 6 likes
    Could be some drama on Election Day given the ECM and GFS outputs . However the UKMO is much flatter at day 6 and doesn’t have that wedge of heights to the north which is needed to evolve in a more wintry way past that point . So lots to keep an eye on over the next few days .
  49. 6 likes
    One for you FEB.. Decent signal on Gefs for some of the white stuff next week.. @feb1991blizzard
  50. 6 likes
    Latest blog from @Nick F Cold & Snowy General Election Day Next Week? A Possibility According To The Weather Models... - Blog by Nick Finnis WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Although it's still 9 days away, and subject to change, the weather models have have for several runs indicated a cold Election Day Thursday next week, even with a risk of snow.
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