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  1. 65 points
    LOOKING AHEAD TO EASTER AND BEYOND After an exceptionally cold and snowy spell as we moved into March, followed by a brief return to similar conditions last weekend, many of us will be looking forward to some warmer spring weather or at least something more seasonal. Although a typical spring sees more frequent northerlies and easterlies than in any other season with a few colder spells, it also has some settled and warmer spells with an early taste of summer. We still have some time to see if there's a chance of the latter but the next few weeks seem set to provide further quite wintry weather. In this report I shall be focusing on the Easter holiday period in particular. My younger niece's wedding is on Saturday, March 31st and both families are hoping for some decent weather and have asked me what we can expect. Right now I'm not particularly optimistic. I'll examine the broader pattern and do one of my cross model analyses. I'll also look at potential upper and surface temperatures I'll finish with a more general look ahead to mid and late spring. I won't do one of my Arctic round ups (sea ice and temperature profiles) or my Eurasia round up (temperature and snow cover profiles) in this post but if I have time, I may cover them in another update early next week. . The Broader Pattern: I'll briefly go through the sequence of events that led up to the cold spells which I've covered in much more detail in earlier posts on here. In late January we saw a slight weakening in La Nina followed by a brief spike in atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) from mid January into early February with the usual time lags (of 10 to 14 days) leading to positive frictional torque and then positive mountain torque. This sent forcing "Rossby Waves" into the atmosphere which not only impacted on the jet stream but also on the lower stratosphere. Amongst other factors (still to be fully debated in the thorough post mortem which we shall see soon on both the strat thread and the teleconnections learning thread) this helped to trigger the very strong sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) during February. The SSW process itself was already underway but the final trigger for the impact is what I'm referring to (i go into much more detail on this in the final part of this post). This impacted on the surface with a full pattern reversal in the Arctic and HLB forcing much of the cold there down towards the middle latitudes. The combination of the slight weakening in La Nina with the positive AAM and the torques helped to produce a very high amplitude MJO (again the subject of debate) as it moved into the key phases 7, 8 and 1 (particularly phase 7 on this occasion) which also assisted with HLB. The strong Canadian PV which we had seen for much of the winter was weakened and displaced across the Arctic and towards Siberia. On this occasion the blocking pattern set up with a belt of high pressure (HP) from Siberia through Russia, Scandinavia and on to Greenland and towards north-east Canada. Exceptionally cold surface and upper air surged westwards from Siberia, through Europe, the UK and a long way across the Atlantic. The jet stream was forced way to the south, often tracking into the Mediterranean and even north Africa. The very strong long fetch easterly produced an unusually cold and snowy spell over the UK and Ireland in late February and early March. Then Storm Emma slowly moved in from the south creating blizzard conditions and then freezing rain in much of the far south followed by a thaw and milder conditions which slowly crept northwards. By this time, the weakening of La Nina had almost paused (temporarily - see the last part of this post), relative AAM and the torques went slightly negative and the MJO which barely entered phase 8, quickly lost amplitude and became relatively inactive (in the circle of death). The immediate impacts of the SSW weakened but still left its imprint on the lower atmosphere. We were left with a very odd pattern with the jet stream mostly continuing on a very southerly trajectory and a void between this and the HLB which became increasingly restricted to the very highest latitudes but the surface flow reversal was still evident to some extent. The void was filled for a while with further areas of slow moving low pressure systems (LPs). The strat specialists "had been" predicting a further (weaker) warming event which was likely to impact around or just after mid-March. The existing tropospheric signature from the initial SSW event meant that the surface layers were already primed for another and further cold blasts from the east (or the north) This produced another much briefer surge of exceptionally cold Siberian air which pushed rapidly across Europe and the UK. This time there was no additional assistance and also no interference (the opposite to earlier this winter) from AAM and the MJO both of which remained relatively benign. The SSW imprint has for a while become the more dominant driver. The second cold snap was very brief without that continuing (AAM/MJO) HLB support and we have entered another milder period. Please note that I have greatly oversimplified this explanation and a number of other factors were involved too - probably to at least some extent such as the east based QBO, record low Arctic sea ice build up this winter and the very weak solar influences (extremely low sun spot activity). I still have a lot to learn about the interaction of these drivers and will be fascinated by the ongoing debate into all the causes and relationships. I shall return to the "key" drivers shortly. Let's have a quick look at the current set up starting with the jet stream. I show the weekly changes for the last month: February 22nd March 1st March 8th March 15th March 22nd You can see that the main branch of the jet stream was mostly well to our south during the last four weeks with just occasional weaker more northerly streaks breaking off or looping around the UK. Right now, there is a slight break in the main pattern with the jet in the Atlantic taking a slightly more northerly route before meandering and buckling as it reaches the UK. Met O Fax 0600 Thurs Mar 22nd GFS 6z Pressure T+6 1200 Mar 22nd GFS 6z Pressure T+6 1200 Mar 22nd GFS 6z Pressure T+6 1200 Mar 22nd We are currently under an Atlantic flow with fairly weak LPs and frontal systems pushing into the UK during the next few days. The Azores HP is ridging slightly north-eastwards. There are also fairly weak LPs in the Arctic with a trough of LP extending from the north Russian side of the Arctic down into Scandinavia (this trough will be very important going further forward). There is a strong belt of HP over northern Canada and Alaska extending towards the North Pole. There is still a large pool of sub -16s to sub -24s 850 upper temps across almost all of the Arctic from northern Canada through to Siberia and Russia and a lobe of sub -8s to sub -12s remains across north-east Europe, northern Scandinavia and western Russia. There is a similar distribution of surface cold although values are not quite so low around north-eastern Europe and western Russia right now. Moving Into the Easter Weekend: During the next week to 10 days which takes us through to the Easter holiday period some slight but important changes for the UK are suggested in the broader pattern. Many of the key drivers will change very little. La Nina continues to weaken slightly, relative AAM and the torques are fairly neutral right now and the MJO is also pretty inactive. I will review all these drivers when I look beyond Easter and further ahead in the next section. I looked at the strat thread for the latest thinking and there is talk of an imminent "secondary warming" and/or a "final warming" (these may be the same event) and the demise of the strat PV. This change often (but not always) occurs during this time of the year and is the adjustment to the summer patterns and can occur at any time from later in February until well into April. It's uncertain how much "more" impact this secondary and/or final warming will have. The imprint from the initial SSW is still in the atmosphere. This is likely to be conducive to further bouts of cold being pushed towards Europe and the UK during the next few weeks. Just as I was writing this bit (currently around 1500) I noticed that @Blessed Weather posted on the strat thread. His last two excellent posts there as well as the very informative one from @ghoneym very much compliment what I have been saying. They are two of our "teleconnection team". I refer you to the page: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88772-stratosphere-temperature-watch-201718/?page=34&tab=comments#comment-3840387 There is a link there to a Met Office blog which has just been released today (Thursday) which is also very much on the same wavelength as my current thoughts. It's entitled "Will The Cold return?" I repeat the link here: https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2018/03/21/will-cold-conditions-return/ The comments there are rather oversimplified, nothing wrong with that but on this occasion it refers to the tropical forcing (which is the +veAAM/+veFT/+veMT and one of the triggers of the SSW "impact" (not the evolution of the SSW itself) that I've mentioned above (and pick up on in greater detail in the next part below). Adam Scaife says that this "is being exacerbated by the SSW" which is not quite right or at least somewhat misleading. There is reference to Judah Cohen's latest AER weekly report published on March 19th. I quoted Judah's reports a lot last winter and again in my last post on here about two weeks ago. Here's that link again now: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/ This is still very much in line with my current thoughts with a trough moving down from the Arctic in Scandinavia and more cold air being dragged in to Europe and the UK. I just quote one of his paragraphs in relation to our neck of the woods: ...."The PV is predicted to linger across Western Siberia over the next two weeks. This will contribute to persistent troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across northern Eurasia including Europe. This will allow cold temperatures now stretching from Northern Asia to Europe and the United Kingdom (UK) to mostly remain in place with some fluctuation in intensity over the next two weeks".... Rather than a straight easterly, this time it'll be more from a northerly or north-easterly quarter. I'll now do one of my cross model analyses to see what the latest output looks like up to Good Friday and for Easter Saturday after that. Note that UKMO (to day 6) and Navgem (to day 7/8) do not go so far out. GFS 12z from 1900 Mar 22nd to 1300 Mar 30th GFS 12z for 1300 Mar 31st UKMO 12z for 1300 Mar 28th ECM 12z from 1900 Mar 22nd to 1300 Mar 30th ECM 12z for 1400 Mar 31st GEM 12z from 1900 Mar 22nd to 1400 Mar 31st GEM 12z for 1400 Mar 31st NAVGEM 12z from 1900 Mar 22nd to 0200 Mar 30th NAVGEM 12z for 1400 Mar 30th JMA12z from 1900 Mar 22nd to 1300 Mar 31st JMA12z for 1300 Mar 31st GEFS Control for 1400 Mar 31st GEFS Mean for 1400 Mar 31st There is now some pretty good consensus on the "broader" pattern amongst the 12z model output (JMA is from yesterday's 12z). They show HP moving down from the Arctic through and to the south of Greenland while a large trough of LP pushes down into Scandinavia and northern Europe. There are important minor variations in the finer detail in the position of the LP that is shown to be near the UK. Where available I've included the GIF chart to run through how we get from the current position to Easter Saturday. This shows the trajectory of the LP. One or more of the models show the following; dropping down just to our south-west; right over us; south or us or east of us. The timing will also be important. A little faster and a ridge of HP from the west might move in to dampen down any showery activity and produce more in the way of sunny intervals but still on the cold side. A little slower and we might be into a cold and showery pattern or even with more prolonged precipitation. It may well be cold enough for conditions to turn quite wintry once again. What is shown for Easter Saturday might end up coming through on Good Friday or somewhat later in the Easter weekend. The UKMO model only goes out to day 6 but we can judge their current thinking by the blog that I referred to above as well as their latest text forecasts which states: "The Easter weekend is too far away to be confident with any details. The most likely scenario currently is a spell of colder than average weather, with increased likelihood of overnight frosts, and a greater than normal chance of snow showers, especially in the north." They are right to state that the Easter weekend is still too far out to forecast the micro detail with any certainty. We may need to wait until we are less than 5 days out to home in on the precise position of the LP and even closer to the Easter weekend for the micro detail on how low temps might be and what type of (if any) precipitation we can expect over the UK. Well before I finish this post, the 18z output will have rolled out but as there are likely to be at least small changes from run to run, the cross selection of the 12z output is a good enough indicator at this stage. Let's have a look at predicted temperatures for Easter Saturday. This time I'll just take charts from GFS and ECM for the 850 upper temps and then GFS and GEM for the 2 m surface temps: 850 temps: GFS 12z from 1900 Mar 22nd to 1300 Mar 30th GFS 12z for 1300 Mar 31st ECM 12z from 1900 Mar 22nd to 1300 Mar 30th ECM 12z for 1400 Mar 31st . Both the GFS and ECM drop some sub -12c (to sub 20s) upper temps back into eastern Europe and Scandinavia during next week and towards Easter. The values for Easter itself are not quite so low with sub -2s to sub sub -8s moving into the UK on Easter Saturday. If that LP drifts a little further to the east into the near continent it's likely to drag in somewhat lower values. So the upper temps might also be on a bit of a knife edge in terms of rain or snow.. 2 m temps: GFS 12z from 1900 Mar 22nd to 1300 Mar 30th GFS 12z for 1300 Mar 31st ECM 12z from 1900 Mar 22nd to 1300 Mar 30th ECM 12z for 1400 Mar 31st Both the GFS and GEM (ECM 2 m surface charts of this type are not available) show that temps on Easter Saturday in the south may be around 8c to 12c in the afternoon. Not far to the north we see temps closer to 4c. It would only take a small shift southwards in the pattern to bring those much lower temps into southern and south-west England too. At 1400, these temps will be close to the maximums for the day. If it turns out to be a showery day, temps can fall sharply during the heavier showers. Until we can nail down greater detail nearer the time, it would be unwise to speculate further. I merely wanted to demonstrate the possibilities. if we are to see a flow more from a northerly or north-easterly direction then we need to take account of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around the UK to see how much modification there might be: Sea Surface temps : March 21st 2018 February 21st 2018 March 21st 2017 SST Anomalies March 21st 2018 The first chart shows the current SSTs. Following the two exceptionally cold easterly spells, there are some very low values right now. The second chart shows the values a month ago just prior to the onset of the first cold spell. You can see that the temps in the North Sea fell by around 2c to 3c during this period and they have barely started to recover since the second cold snap finished during Monday. We should note that SSTs around our shores are usually at their lowest during March. This can vary from around as early as mid February (as in a few recent mild winters and early springs) to as late as early April (or even mid April following the long 2013 March/April exceptionally late cold spell). Much depends on the prevailing weather patterns, the temp of the lowest surface air layers and the strength and direction of the wind. Strong south-westerlies can quickly mix the top sea surface layers. Although these mid March SSTs are very low by recent standards, we have seen much lower values following previous severe winters. Back in the 1960s, Arctic sea ice extent was far greater than it is these days, often hugging the northern Iceland shores towards the end of winter. Following one of the most northerly months in the UK in February 1969, SSTs dropped from above average to well below. The north North Sea was still close to its average back then of around 4.5c (compared that to the 5c to 6c there right now, despite the recent cold spells). The SSTs in the Norwegian Sea were much lower and later on (into the spring melt) a few mini ice bergs were spotted off the northern Scotland shores and were a shipping hazard north of Shetland! The last chart (from the NetWeather suite) shows the current global SST anomalies (excluding the Arctic which I report on separately) compared to the 1971 to 2000 30 year mean. For the first time since March/April 2013, the SSTs surrounding most of the UK are below the mean. This is almost entirely due to the two exceptionally cold spells. Overall, the current low values will provide rather less modification than normal to an incoming air stream from a northerly (or easterly) quarter. Looking Beyond Easter: As there is still considerable uncertainty over the micro detail for the run up to the Easter holiday weekend, I will only look at the broader patterns and set up for this part of my report. There are a few indicators which I have not yet examined in any detail. Let's start with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. The NOAA weekly reports are always useful to look at. Here's the link to their last report from March 19th: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf I've snipped a few key pages from there and post them below (the last chart is directly from the NOAA website): NOAA expect the La Nina to weaken further with ENSO neutral conditions likely (a 55% probability so by no means certain) during mid to late spring and predicted to last throughout the remainder of 2018. After a steady weakening of La Nina during the second half of January and into February particularly from the lowest values in the eastern tropical Pacific, there was a pause in the warm up but this has resumed again in the last couple of weeks. Anomalies in "all four" Nino Pacific regions are now less than 1 c below the neutral level. The values are between -0.1c (in the west) and -0.7c (elsewhere) and not seen since last summer (compare the values to those in the fifth chart for previous 3 month periods in earlier years). There has been an upwelling of warmer sub surface currents in the central and eastern Pacific during the last few weeks. NOAA also refer to a weakening of the tropical easterlies and an "eastward propagating kelvin wave" . This is somewhat above my pay grade but I have just been consulting on this and it seems that this can be an early precursor to a change to El Nino conditions and one to look out for as the year progresses. The is an ongoing (smaller) risk of a return to stronger La Nina conditions and the next few months may be critical in deciding where we go from here. I will return to this towards the end of this post. Next up, the MJO. Again NOAA's weekly report makes for useful reading. Here's the link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf ...and here's the summary + two charts from the NOAA site: NOAA Report Summary GEFS forecast from Mar 18th to Apr 1st GEFS forecast from Mar 22nd to Apr 5th ECM forecast from Mar 22nd to Apr 5th Well this is interesting. The NOAA report "was" forecasting a weak MJO remaining in the circle of death (COD). Today's forecasts bring it to life again. The GEFS plot takes it out of the COD into phase 6 during the next few days at increasing amplitude and then on into phase 7 at higher amplitude early next week and through Easter and then on to phase 8 during week 2. The ECM plot takes it on a similar path at the same times but at rather lower amplitude. This is a somewhat surprising turnaround and "may" be quite significant in favouring or assisting with further HLB patterns after Easter (more later). Now onto AAM and the torques. Here we have an excellent new source of data for the GWO (global wind oscillation) plots with an alternative to the GEFS output and also with the GEFS negative biases ironed out. I'll start with the excellent and new Victor Gensini free to view educational site - here's the link: http://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/ This site is still under construction with further developments planned including torque "forecasts" - something we have not had since the two NOAA scientists retired 2 year ago. Here are some of the current charts for March 22nd: Relative AAM By Latitude Relative AAM Anomaly By Latitude Global AAM Anomaly for last 90 days CFS Global Relative AAM 30 Day Forecast GEFS Global Relative AAM 30 Day Forecast CFS GWO Ensemble Mean 30 day Forecast GWO Annotated Phase Chart Looking at the third chart with the AAM anomaly for the last 90 days (these charts are available to go back over a full year) we can clearly see the spike from the low point mid January until the high point in early February that I referred to as the chain of events that helped to trigger the SSW (more after the torque charts). AAM is predicted to remain relatively neutral for the next month. The CFS ensemble members are mostly slightly negative whereas the GEFS members are mostly slightly positive but with no significant spikes for the time being. Frictional Torque (FT) Mountain Torque (MT) Global Calculated AAM Tendency Relative AAM Tendency Global AAM Anomaly Again you can see the spike in the torques which occurred during February. Quite a few people get confused by the timing and impacts of these processes, as did I until a few months ago. If you refer to the annotated GWO phase chart you can see that the process actually starts when AAM spikes from a negative or even a strongly negative position not just when it has gone positive. So in mid January AAM was shown as close to -3 with east Indian Ocean "maritime convection" or around GWO phase 3. Then the chain of events begins. As AAM rises into phase 4 (still negative) FT starts to rise. Then as AAM continues to rise it starts to become positive and moves towards the GWO phase 5 and this is when MT starts to rise. This chain of events has a usual time lag of around 10 to 14 days (in this case from just after mid January to very early in February). The different colour lines on the lower section of the MT chart represent the different torques (the key to these is immediately above that lower section). The black line represents the global torque which was strongly positive for a short while. With this phase of positive MT it was the EAMT (East Asian Mountain Torque) that was the main northern hemisphere influence. As this energy forcing circumvented the globe (known as Rossby Waves which impact on the jet stream causing it to meander) it interacted with the Himalaya mountain range. This sent up energy waves high into the atmosphere, through the troposphere and into the lower stratosphere. This involved a further time lag. Other factors in the strat were already initiating the earlier stages of the warming. Think of the MT energy waves as giving the process a violent nudge. Sometimes warming events do not propagate effectively down to the surface layers. The MT forcing was definitely one of the key contributory factors in triggering the final stages of the SSW and its impact on the surface. These processes and interactions are only beginning to be understood. AAM probably always plays its part in this process. It is not always EAMT that has the largest impact on the strat. Sometimes it is NAMT (North American Mountain Torque over the Rockies) but not on this occasion (it had been positive in January but was slightly negative during the key period in early February). There have been a few papers on the impacts of MTs on the strat in relation to earlier SSW events. The term is also known as "orographic forcing". As part of the post mortem and debate on the teleconnections learning thread into the causes, timing, triggering and impacts of the SSW, we intend to examine past MT forcing types and the links with previous SSW events. It will also be fascinating to see when previous potential SSWs came close but failed to reach the surface. I'm wondering if there was little or no AAM/FT/MT assistance in these years. This should also give us all a better idea of the degree of AAM influence and whether or not it must be an essential ingredient to the overall process. I am very grateful [email protected] for spending so much time during the last few months patiently taking me through the angular momentum learning curve. Whilst I still have much to learn, this has already enabled me to include some of this new found knowledge in my posts on the MOD and particularly on the Teleconnections Learning Thread. There are more detailed explanations of the AAM processes on that thread and I'll remind you of the link at the end of my post. To sum up this section so far, we may well be seeing La Nina move into an ENSO neutral phase. The MJO, which has been inactive for some time since early to mid February shortly before "Beast 1), is just starting to show signs of coming to life and in the key phases of 7, 8 (and perhaps onto 1) for assisting HLB. The SSW has left its imprint on the atmosphere and the secondary and/or final warming (I'll let the strat specialists agree or argue over that one) may help to extend the blocking and colder patterns for longer. AAM and the torques are forecast to be relative benign for the next few weeks. I would say that after the Easter holiday period the Scandinavian trough of LP may start to weaken as further HLB may replace it. This and other factors (partly discussed above) may either prolong the cold spell or allow for further cold bursts with brief milder interludes. Then what many of us want to know is will we see any decent spring weather? What I outlined above may well take us through to mid April. By then, assuming the trend continues, we may well see the demise of La Nina and an ENSO neutral phase. I'm still learning about AAM impacts through the summer half of the year but Tamara has already given me some of the lowdown. With AAM very quiet, the longer lasting impacts of the initial SSW are likely to have continuing impacts for the next few weeks and will still override other factors for some time. This would be in line with what I said above. What we need is something to jolt the tropospheric pattern. We do not know whether we'll see a final warming - it doesn't occur in every year. May be the Nina to neutral changes will help. May be the very recent suggestion of a more active MJO will help. Perhaps we'll see another spike in AAM during April. Quite often the Nina to neutral phase at this time of the year can produce some fine, dry and warm late spring and early summer weather. Positive AAM then will help to push the jet stream back onto a much more northerly track with LPs being driven well away from the UK. For this to happen we do need this jolt I mentioned above. If the broader pattern favoured further easterlies (rather than flows from a northerly quarter) then the continent does start to warm up rapidly during late March and into April. There is still a chance that the La Nina will strengthen again but this does seems fairly unlikely right now. So, although this might seem that I'm saying that all options are possible, what I've attempted to demonstrate are some of the signs to look out for going forward. Finally, I said last time that my MOD posts would be becoming far less frequent as I increasingly focus on developing the teleconnections learning thread. Our bolt on library should be set up soon. The fascinating SSW debate will be underway shortly after Easter and there will be a lot of other activity on there. So why not take a look through now and ensure that you come back to visit us soon. I'll post an update on here when the debate really gets underway. Here's the link: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89161-learning-about-teleconnection-science-and-background-signals/ or just click on the chart below:
  2. 42 points
    Thanks - Officially signed off twice but always lurking- UKMO 168 & ECM 168 show the cold temporarily being blocked as the systems angle isnt very favourable for allowing the cold over the top- Although that could change- look at beast 2 - All the models were pretty poor until 96-120 There is some legs in this next cold spell - Higher chance of some high lattitude blocking - So it could happen ---- More snow ???? Possibly....
  3. 30 points
    Well off to Orlando next week, need a touch of warmth, Spring isn’t coming yet! UKMO looking cold, snow will be used again in forecasts for many particularly next week 3-8 April. Enjoy and I’ll pop in when back after taking on The Hulk. After my dad passing away....sod it in for a penny...big hols blow out BFTP
  4. 29 points
    Evening Everyone Looks like this cold spell is not gonna happen this time round but never mind we didn't have a to bad winter . Had 2 snow falls in December and 2 falls out of the beasts , so a lot better than previous years . So given all that I'm now signing off until next winter. Have a brilliant summer everyone and see ya next winter it's been emotional πŸ˜‚. PS - This did happen , just though I'd say that as it proves the people wrong who say we can't get cold weather in the uk anymore. Well we can and look at this bad boy chart . 😁
  5. 27 points
    Afternoon- Its a difficult call this - However the operationals working towards the very solution could hold the key- The last beast the other day the Ensembles were 24-36 hours behind the operations in delivering the deep cold, the operationals were there / thereabouts by day 5- But prior to that the model tendancies were to drop the high pressure & undercutting further SE at day 6 & 7 (144 & 168 ) Heres a great example of 'bias' from the ECM I we compare the 168 chart with the actual chart we see the high pulled back but also significantly more troughing to our East- Taking todays ECM 168 It doesnt take much of a leap of faith to forecast that theres a higher probability of the cold being curved Further west if the ECM is applying the same bias - Of course we cant assume it be the same again, however considering its very similar synoptics at a ver similar timescale then we could almost forecast a westward correction in the next 24 hours.... S
  6. 26 points
    Fascinating Ecm 12z later in the run with very cold air lurking not far to the E / NE and trough disruption taking place.. Ps..I'm sure steve murr is lurking too
  7. 25 points
    So by common agreement we have a warm spell arriving. Do we bask in this prediction? Not some of you just arguing will it be 21 C 23 C or 25 C. For gawds sake stop bickering and enjoy the summer like weather for many areas for 2-3 days.
  8. 25 points
    Time to put the spring bulbs back in the shed! Some big changes since yesterday , now pressure building to the ne . The UKMO looks similar to the GFS at T144 hrs. Indiana Jones and the search for the mini beast mark 2 begins !
  9. 24 points
  10. 24 points
    Just a quick question . Why do you seem so pleased when the outputs show mild wet weather ? I can understand people wanting mild/warm dry weather as I can understand people wanting cold and snow (me included) . But being happy with mild and wet for Easter is a bit weird. πŸ™‚
  11. 23 points
    Just thought I would pop in to share some good non weather related news. 7 years ago my world came tumbling down, my wife found a lump nothing serious at first so we thought but it soon turned into something that would impact our lives for ever. we have been to hell and back in the time since, I had to quit my well paid job and close down my small business, we lost everything, the house, the car and the life style we had become used too. my wives health continued to get worse and worse to the point that in 2015 I was told to go home and prepare my family for the worst. told if she makes 24 hours it will be a miracle. well the tough old bird made it and after several operations and long recovery she is almost back to the person she once was thanks to a massive amount of medication that she will be a slave to for the rest of her days. well last week I went for a job interview and today the phone call to say "would you like to start work" for me and my family this is massive, while caring for my wife over the years ive been called work shy, a scrounger and all sorts of other foul things. well not anymore. time to find that bottle of buckie me thinks..
  12. 23 points
    Excellent - snow showers across the bulk of the UK! A very brief milder blip and then the April Beast strikes again
  13. 23 points
    Maybe but judging by the latest extended METO text forecast it looks like cold all the way until mid April at the very least & then only a slim chance of something slightly 'less cold'. It's interesting that earlier / middle part of the winter it seemed that there was a 'predisposition' to bring cold weather patterns from the NW and sliding LP systems across the UK for an extended period. Maybe we have entered a phase when there is a similar 'predisposition' to bring very cold shots to us from the N / NE / E Exactly what the drivers are and which ones predominate (SSW etc?) I'll leave to the experts in other threads. Suffice it to say, I'm enjoying this fascinating cold phase - just hope it re-emerges around about mid November for - say - 4/5 months.
  14. 23 points
    It’s clear that Easter barbecue’s are off the agenda this year could see a second wave of cold for Easter mon/Tuesday behind a dropping low which would be a pretty snowy feature over northern hills and could well run a track which brings more of the country into play. Gavin’s Azores ridge next week looks to have been cancelled, along with the rest of March springtime...........
  15. 22 points
    I remember winters where we got uber excited with uppers of -5c .................
  16. 21 points
  17. 20 points
    168 > 216 over scotland - Record date cold Lying Snow - Check Deep upper cold - Check Stationary Air - Check Sub -15c anyone?
  18. 19 points
    Starting Day 5 of The Rob Roy way. Weather has been kind so far (even yesterday’s rain was light) and no blisters. Loving the scenery!
  19. 19 points
    Much as I'm sure we all appreciate your time, effort and minute by minute exciting up & down snapshots of idividual model runs, it can be a bit hair raising for newbies to follow. A quick glance at the latest GEFS show a very uncertain picture after about 7-10 days at best. The GEFS can give a rough guide but they also vary as much as the Op runs - see below 12z yesterday - Oops it's trending colder later 18z yesterday - Oops now it's trending warmer 00z today - Oops now it's trending much warmer - summers on the way. 06z today - oops now it's trending down again and long term is an enigma! EPS 46 & EPS are along similar lines - interesting to see how it eventually plays out.
  20. 19 points
    Lovely warm and anticyclonic later in low res on the Gfs 00z with temps into the mid to upper teens celsius..i think even the most hard-core coldie wouldn't mind a spell of very pleasant spring weather towards mid april! 🌞🌞🌞🌞🌞🌞🌞
  21. 19 points
    As we approach April, the models perhaps not very surprisingly showing the first sustained northerly of the year - April and May are renowned for them. Strong heights to the NW, locked in trough digging into Europe. What is perhaps more surprising is the depth of cold shown by the models still lurking to the north, every chance low level snowfall, and severe frosts over easter - if the ECM comes off. Very cold charts shown this evening and this is a recurring trend now..
  22. 18 points
    A bit of positive news .We had a nice heifer calf born yesterday to a heifer (first time calver) Face getting washed for first time.Five minutes old Looking wobbly on her feet for the first time. One hour old. Milk bar open first drink from mum. One and half hours old.
  23. 18 points
    To me there is currently strong support for an unseasonably wintry spell next week with a risk of snow for all areas, especially further north and on higher ground and with some very cold frosty / icy nights..a last hurrah maybe?..if it is, I don't think coldies would mind as we've seen the most wintry spells this month which were far better than anything we saw in dec / jan / feb!!...I will soon be looking for warmth / heat but not just yet with charts like these still popping up!❄❄❄❄❄ β›„β›„β›„β›„β›„
  24. 18 points
    Not so fast! A cold forecast for sure in the reliable timeframes for all of Europe bar the south Trend forecast is particularly cold for the UK And for the 10 day period to boot... All of which squares nicely with UKMET thinking. Hopefully some more wintry fun for us to come before hibernation calls...
  25. 18 points
    GFS 00z shows temperatures rising quite nicely as we move into April we even hit the magical 20c
  26. 18 points
    Good to have you back Mike. We need a few posters to prevent it being the Summer Sun thread! A swing back to a cold outlook continues on the 18z Icon & GfS not forgetting the almighty FIM... the fat lady may have cleared her throat but she isn’t sung yet!
  27. 18 points
    I am sure that 1976 was a year with no spring....... just saying 30th March 30th April 30th May Flaming JUNE It did get a tad warmer thereafter
  28. 18 points
    The trend is definitely the coldies friend, apart from some milder weather in the next few days there is really no sign of proper spring warmth showing it's face, indeed, generally the models show a gradual return to winter from the N / NE next week with an increasing risk of snow, frosts and ice, especially throughout the long Easter weekend and potentially further into april too..I'm a very happy coldie making the most of it and after all the mild mush we've endured, I make no apology for wanting as much cold as I can get before the sunshine becomes too strong!
  29. 18 points
    This is all a bit crazy but it's what the models are showing so I will keep my cold hat on a little while longer (I normally flip to warm by the middle of March!!!). ECM clusters 1 April - unanimous on a flow from Greenland or even further north (and this is no April Fool)
  30. 18 points
    Looking at the 00z runs, winter to return with a vengeance through the second half of next week with snow looking increasingly likely and potentially further wintry reloads extending beyond easter..for a coldie wanting to squeeze out as much wintry potential as possible at this time of year, it's wonderful to see charts like the Ecm / Gfs 00z show this morning..fingers crossed coldies!!⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄
  31. 18 points
    ECM trends towards that 18z solution @144-168 but not a full swing, however certainly colder with a channel runner- plenty of time for more significant upgrades - as if -8/-10 wasnt enough...
  32. 18 points
    APRIL 2000 You really must stop distracting me as I've got a huge back log in my work I've noted all the posts re: the 4th April 2000 snowfall and the very wet year that followed. Here are a few charts for that day: If you go to these reanalysis sites you can find so much more. You can check every day and then run through the charts which include northern hemisphere and other views. Here are the links NCEP Archives - Reanalysis of Daily Charts from 1871 to Date: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?month=4&day=1&year=2000&map=0&hour=0&mode=2&type=ncep ECM Archives - Reanalysis of Daily Charts from 1979 to 2017: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=1&month=4&day=4&year=2000&map=5&type=era&region=uk Here are some Met O reports: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/apr2000recordrain.html https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/apr2000wintry.html https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/apr2000wet.html The Met O library contains a vast amount of archive data. I often quote from the monthly weather reports. Unfortunately there is a 7 year gap (including 2000) when the old style reports ceased until the new system started. Here are the links: Jan 1884 to Dec 1993 - monthly: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/library/archive-hidden-treasures/monthly-weather-report Jan 1994 to Dec 2000 - monthly: There is a gap in the Met Office records - they stopped the old reports and didn't replace them until 2001 Jan 2001 to date - monthly: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2001 Better still we have the "Daily Weather Reports" for the whole period from as far back as 1860 without gaps. These take a little longer to find. They're in their digital archive library and you need to search, refine details and wait for pdf files to load up. Here's the link to all the 2000 charts - stored for each month: https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/archive/sdb%3AdeliverableUnit|2e7a0c97-8ed9-4b8d-95b3-22d0d4b2d2ed/ ....and the link to April 2000: https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/file/sdb%3AdigitalFile|e303e6c1-6800-494c-b85d-86e000051a2f/ which will download to this: file:///C:/Users/David/Downloads/DWS_2000_04.pdf The month has 124 pages of daily data and 4 pages for each day. Here are those 4 pages snipped: and close ups of a couple of sections: Finally. I feel that I should slightly disagree with those who are likening the weather that we might see this Easter - quite probably with cold winds from a northerly quarter with some wintry showers around or perhaps some more widespread snow (but "probably" less cold and less snowy than "Beast 1" or "Beast 2") to 2000. I'll be doing a MOD report on this in a week or so. That's where the analogue ends. The broader patterns and set ups were very different in 2000 to 2018. A mostly mild and very dry March in 2000, gave way to that Arctic outbreak followed by very wet conditions during April and further very wet weather in spring and summer 2000. Once we get over the effects of the sudden stratospheric warming and the final warming which is likely to produce these further cold spells into early April, there is "likely" to be some significant improvements later in April and through the rest of spring and early summer. The La Nina is weakening to ENSO neutral during the next few weeks. This period is "usually" associated with very weak jet streams. In spring this is likely to produce some dry and settled weather and probably some pleasantly warm conditions. Once we get over the repeating cold patterns with some wet weather in between, we are likely to see a rapid change and warm up. I would be very surprised to see a wet and cool early summer. Nothing is certain but the broad indications are there. I provided all the links so that anyone who is interested in spending hours or days going through this vast amount of data and archive records and reports can do so. I use it regularly but I must have a break now for a few days to catch up with work. David
  33. 17 points
    I think most of us would be very happy if the Gfs 00z op / Gefs 00z mean is right about the trend towards mid april with high pressure and pleasant low / mid 60's F warmth! 🌞🌞🌞🌞🌞
  34. 17 points
  35. 16 points
    Just taking cursory glances at the models currently, given margins for sudden changes are very slim - unlike just 2/3 weeks back. We are still in a very amplified flow, classic ridge/trough/ridge scenario, with the the whole of UK locked on the warm side of the trough for the first time since January (the emphasis is on whole of UK, at times the south has been on the warmer but for the northern half of the UK we've had many weeks of being on the colder side - well since the SSW. So a few very pleasant days ahead, significant warmth for central/south/south east parts, and dry for most away from the far NW. Western parts will see above average temps, but tempered by winds coming off the atlantic/irish sea - its no nationwide blue sky dry warm spell ahead, very much a SE quarter affair. Into next week - signs heights will collapse into Europe with the jet firing back on a more zonal flow, ushering in cooler westerlies, with hints of the trough perhaps aligning more on a NW-SE path which would allow for heights to strengthen to the NW and we could see a colder northerly shot before the month is out- very par for the course at this time of the year. Enjoy the upcoming warmth (I'm not calling it a heatwave, that phrase is far too liberally used, just like the word 'freezing' in winter), will be nice to have some sunshine as well, a marked change in the feel of things is about to occur - that shift from winter base state to summer base state, with nature responding, expect plenty of leaf buds to suddenly burst into green foliage, bees and wasps will be buzzing around, the birds will make for a hive of activity in the skies as summer migrants return.. and we have the joy of May and June just ahead.
  36. 16 points
    Superb ECM 00z bringing some welcome warmth Can't wait. Bring it on.
  37. 16 points
    Roll on November when we can get back to our cold and snow chase! Seriously though it’s felt like a very long winter. All the best synoptics turned up right at the end which is a shame . Having said that the depth of cold both in the beast and mini beast was quite exceptional for the time of year , the former in terms of windchill was probably something younger members hadn’t experienced before. So rare has that type of easterly been in recent years.
  38. 16 points
  39. 16 points
    To keep coldies happy I'll post this mornings ICON which has flipped back to the colder option GEM also shows some colder air later next week for the south this could ease by Saturday (but still below average )whereas further north it holds on longer
  40. 16 points
    This was the end of the sunset that kept ducking in and out of my mirrors this eveing as I got towards home. Eventually I stopped and got the camera out, possible a minute or few on the late side.
  41. 16 points
    Blizzard 1 alert! Blizzard 2 alert! South gets buried... Sleep tight..
  42. 16 points
    As far as I'm aware, a weak polar vortex located over Siberia is pretty much the ultimate setup for placing deep cold airmasses E/NE of the UK and then allowing ridges from the Atlantic sector to pull some of that SW or W toward and potentially right across the UK. Sadly for those who prefer this to happen in the heart of winter, only the most powerful vortex splitting events are able to bring about such a weak vortex in that area during Dec-Feb, yet due to the seasonal warming-out, it only takes a weak event to do so in late March or early April. Anyway - combined with albedo feedback from the extensive snow cover across NE Europe and W. Russia, it means we're at risk of unusually cold air imports until either the vortex fully winds down and stops drawing deep cold together beneath it, or the cold air warms out under the increasingly strong sun, or tropical forcing such as the MJO can force the ridges from the Atlantic to stay at lower latitudes. The warming of the global climate will be focused away from the N. Europe to NW. Asia regions during this time, hence it's not out of the question for record levels of cold to be challenged in these areas. I am of course just highlighting the potential here; even with the higher than usual risk, there's still quite a good chance of escaping another import of air as anomalously cold as we've received twice this month already. The ensembles do have me concerned for the welfare of our wildlife though!
  43. 16 points
    I'm moving to Exmoor the new snow resort of the UK
  44. 16 points
    Better agreement that the Asian vortex will align towards scandi (as the ens have been hinting)rather than Canada, with a split of sorts. ec is better for this evolution with a pretty decent polar split by day 6/7. it wouldn't take a lot from day 7 for @Steve Murr to reappear ............... ec op looks to be thinking about phasing across around e Greenland by day 8. big frame upcoming .......... EDIT: interesting but inconclusive...... potential (shame it isn't spring potential but failing that we may as well go for it again!)
  45. 15 points
    Yep, dead lambs up in the Lomonds today Our road is completely blocked for the second time in four weeks. Usually it happens every few years! But the very low sun came out just as it was setting and cast East Lomond in the weirdest light. Looks so inviting!
  46. 15 points
    Just home after a fairly ropey bus journey! Easily up there with the heaviest falls we've had all winter! By my reckoning the 2nd heaviest fall by depth! Just shy of 4 inches and still falling!
  47. 15 points
    Cracking end to GFS with higher pressure building to our east allowing the door to open to warmer southerly air
  48. 15 points
    Who said it's getting warmer?..not the Gfs 6z!..let it snow❄❄❄❄❄❄
  49. 15 points
    The snow goes on and on . Pub run special 😁 . There be no Easter egg hunting outside , the eggs would be buried . At least they won't melt πŸ˜‚
  50. 15 points
    Snowman and snow Bunny are still going strong πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ’ͺπŸ’ͺπŸ‘πŸ‘
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