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  1. 21 likes
    Desperation makes a two day northerly seem like a ‘47 redux! clusters show this pub run evolution has about as much chance as anything else in the day 9/11 day period lets look for some consistency tomorrow
  2. 19 likes
    You guys have awoken me from my ancient slumber... Nearly spat me horlex out when I viewed the 18z....strooth...some intense cold showing its hand on this run.... Could we be about to see for the 1st time this season.... A boom situation. Ps.. I'm out of reactions but fantastic commentary from all of you... You beauty..
  3. 19 likes
    Certainly more in the way of cold options appearing in Fi now. No consistency but at least there isn’t a consistent Bartlett yawn any more
  4. 18 likes
    I’ve seen more excitement at a Women’s Institute Bake Sale ! By day 8 the ECMs upstream pattern is as flat as a pancake . By day 9 the colder air is desperately trying to break through the UKs cold force field. In the meantime the low hanging around upstream panics at that thought and moves east in the hope of stopping the cold advance ! Excuse my flippant tone but I’m being driven to it !
  5. 18 likes
  6. 18 likes
    UKMO / GEM & the GEFS starting to look good this afternoon with more & more signs of higher amplification -
  7. 17 likes
    I was driving into this earlier. Shots taken by my neighbour Sarah:
  8. 17 likes
    One thing for sure is we have a large high pressure in Control come next weekend.. Where it ends up further down the line is anyone's guess! At this stage I would say frost and fog looks likely to increase... And that's a vast improvement on previous weeks... God how I miss freezing fog...
  9. 16 likes
    What's the time??? Its ensemble time!! It's well quite on here, the place was buzzing just the other day!! Come on folks, get behind me for a February cold chase... Will it, prey for it, dance for it! Possible early talk of an SSW!! We could do with it folks, and would certainly make Feb more exciting.... Never say never..
  10. 16 likes
    Putting aside the Indiana Jones and the search for snow ! The high pressure could well bring some pretty low temps especially for southern central areas . Could be some sub zero maxima where fog doesn’t clear . There could be some hoar frost which will bring a festive feel to things .
  11. 16 likes
    The question being is can the polar vortex stay this strong throughout winter! I've just noticed its reached a record low at the top of - 96c,spinning at 600km an hour.. Pretty remarkable. If a split could occur anytime soon, we could be looking at some serious cold spilling to lower latitudes! Not much joy with the current output, but it's not just us... Most of mainland Europe is mild, and also the Eastern seaboard of the states. So according to the ECM mean the next 10 days see fluctuations in temperature, if anything we look cooler than mainland Europe at times.. It will be the end of February before I give in the ghost, so plenty of time just yet.
  12. 15 likes
    Weather wise, that was my second worst offshore experience since 1987. A similar storm in 1993 caused the mooring anchors of the Safe Supporter to snap in massive seas. The flotel didnt have means of propulsion so we were adrift and out of control. We passed dangerously close to the Lonond platform but thankfully didnt collide. Evacuation wasn't an option as the weather was to bad for the coastguard helicopters Hours later a vessel managed to get a tow line in place and the biggest helicopter evacuation in north sea history got underway. Horrendous.
  13. 15 likes
    12z EPS depicts a very elongated vortex all the way up to 50hPa towards the end of the run. A starting point if you’re looking for an upward split.
  14. 15 likes
    Well Gonzo spoiled the party and sends all the cold into Europe again. but at least it was better than the last flatter run in terms of more amplitude further north,back this pattern a good 1000 miles west and we would be on the money,is that too much to ask! Just to add that i will not be on here tomorrow night but probably a brief visit tomorrow morning/afternoon as i have guest's down for a new year party(who wouldn't)... so i would like to wish everyone on here a happy new year and enjoy yourself's,you have deserved it and i will see you in the new year,stay safe
  15. 15 likes
    Merry Christmas and some Happy missing balloon-data to you all!
  16. 14 likes
    A decent set of ensembles for here with a few -10 850s P4 is what I am looking for more of linking in with what I discussed last night about phase 7 and heights going toward Greenland and a NE / E flow also the GEFS keen on a possible displacement event in the strat though given how sketchy the models have been with regards to the PV strength will need to see this come into nearer time frames before any confidence.
  17. 14 likes
    If we can get to this point it's game on...
  18. 14 likes
    Hi gang ,i am more confident today that things are gradually very slowly becoming more Wintry for the UK .a couple of days ago i did say that there was a possible that Atlantic lows would move on a more southerly track and that i was hoping we would see also lows moving south east .not rocket science i must admit , but I'm sure something to get our attention and may be cheer us all up .Gfs is sniffing out the possibility of high pressure to our n east in extended outlook, and Ecm showing an angry North Atlantic attack, but positioning of lows past 6 days will be very critical. Exeter yesterday hints at a cooling down ,wo der what today will bring. Some newsworthy weather on its way and not all mild mush .and its only jan 8th , take care gang cheers .
  19. 14 likes
    It depends what your expectation of what is a typical winter for the UK. I look at it this way; severe cold dominated winters of the likes of early 1940s, 1947, 1962-63 and 1978-79 is what I would call the exception rather than the norm for the UK, and more recently I would put 2009-10 and Dec 2010 in the category as something that is clearly not going to happen on a frequent basis; these are winter spells that just pop up occasionally in the UK when we get lucky and everything in the weather patterns falls into a favourable place for long enough. I would say that the typical average winter in the UK develops with spells of mild zonal weather punctuated by some colder polar maritime zonality and a significant cold spell for one to two weeks of it. Most recently I would call something like 2017-18 as close to a typical winter for the UK, and 2012-13 as the last one with more cold weather in it than is average. To me in the last 30 odd years winters like 88-89, 89-90, 97-98 esp Feb 1998, Jan / Feb 2002, 06-07, 07-08, 13-14, Dec 2015, Feb 2019 are just the warm equivalents of the cold extremes above, and certainly not the norm for the UK, and the last 30 odd years has had so many stinker periods of winter like these mentioned above.
  20. 14 likes
    Beautiful winters day with virtually no wind, unbroken sunshine and a max of 3c - already down to -2c. Lovely sunset to mark the end of the year as well. If we can't have snow then this kind of winter day will more than suffice.
  21. 14 likes
  22. 13 likes
    Another pic of the cracking sunset tonight, looking west from above Lairg
  23. 13 likes
    Looks like finally this winter both the AO and NAO are about to shift more neutral or even hopefully negative What also looks more interesting is this chart from Weather is cool showing wind anomalies at different heights above 60N. Look at the far right of the chart. Is that the first signs of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming showing up for the end of January
  24. 13 likes
    Might be a chance of these around the 10th Jan somewhere in Scotland as the very cold stratospheric temperatures move across
  25. 13 likes
    Whilst I understand WHY some are effectively writing off January, such a stance is of course utter nonsense. Sure there probably is an increased chance of it being a poor January, when compared to the average January the 2nd starting point, but as per usual it’s as much driven by people’s own negativity and frustration as it is the actual weather chart output. Certain people have gone further still, writing off hope of any positive effects from the stratosphere and the entire winter itself! Good grief, this forum at times... Anyway, ECM dangles the carrot tonight. As has already been mentioned, not totally on its own either with a few GEFS hinting at such a scenario. A few GEFS members and the ECM Op Day10 hardly an inspiring line up of advocates but in this situation we are not going to get a sudden cold spell emerge out of nowhere for 5 days time, but this looks a feasible way out of this dross to me as we get to mid month. Mid Lat High is a reasonable response, if we could squeeze something a few degrees higher, mores the better.
  26. 13 likes
    All these posts & only one man following the right model- Another opportunity to examine the UKMO v GFS / ECM scenario. UKMO 144 > 168 cold uk circa -8c into England GFS / ECM flat as a pancake. ( but GFS & ENS slowly amplifying ) As usual pointless following the endless mean charts being posted for day 8/9/10 waste of time when amplification occurring at day 6.. All eyes on the UKMO 12z ...
  27. 12 likes
    Would add that that sunset was memorable, only caught it from the glamourous vista of Inverness asda car park and up the hill on the way home when it wasn’t as great Yes HC, definite hints of mammatus, someone posted this on Twitter from the town
  28. 12 likes
    18z suite. Op, Control and 14 out of 20 GEFS members hit -8 850s or lower on the south coast. Consistency required but as I mentioned earlier this looks very feasible.
  29. 12 likes
    Good afternoon gang, very quiet today think many posters are relaxing, having a nap ,dreaming of polar air invading the uk zzzz .On to the models ,Gfs soon ,will it continue to roll out more wintry synoptics, or keep the atlantic slamming low after low at us. I realy do think that a pattern change is on the way ,my estimate 21st /23rd jan .so we need a good Ecm run tonight or by 7pm tomorrow ,The gfs i think as been Sniffing out much lower 850 mb temp that could head south or s east in about 8 to 10 days across the uk ,so we need to see this firming up in future runs .And ecm the same as this mornings ,bringing a blast of cold south , hopefully all starting to sing from the same hymn sheet. WE can read in between the lines of todays Met office update when Exeter finally update .right gang i need a snooze and a visit to the wood shed .ps ,spent ages earlier looking at weather channels in the northern hemisphere, something is afoot, But the big ASK Will it visit us , is the very bitter Polar vortex about to Unleash some individual Monsters in to mid latitudes ,cheers gang .
  30. 12 likes
    Just love watching the cold roll in from the east
  31. 12 likes
    Okay, so here's the proposal by the modelling. GLAAM rises sufficiently, in response to an active MJO propagating across the Pacific, to send a significant pulse of energy from the Pacific to the high Arctic. That triggers a rapid 'bottom-up' polar vortex split, which reaches the mid-levels (hardly any effects being depicted for 10 hPa and 1 hPa). This is a transient event, but may still yield a noteworthy bout of cold weather for western Eurasia. Reasons to be cautious, however: Models are prone to changing AAM too enthusiastically. EPS are not as keen to propagate the MJO across the Pacific and GEFS. Even GEFS aren't reliably producing enough of an AAM rise to yield an effective polar vortex split. We can also interpret this in FV3 based on the high variability of recent runs. Usually when the MJO doesn't make it past P7, mid-latitude blocking is favoured in the vicinity of the UK. The proposed outcome is an unusual scenario that depends on developments the other side of the hemisphere. Possibly it's only even possible due to the unusually strong nature of the MJO activity across the Maritime Continent and into the West Pacific. Regardless, unusual means less likely to come off. Overall, reasons to keep an open mind to a dramatic change in temperatures (at least for a time) by late Jan, but not (at this stage) to expect it by any means.
  32. 12 likes
    Heavy proper snow here, world has turned white.Husband says it started about 6am.
  33. 12 likes
    Well, what do we have here, then; an intense anticyclone in entirely the wrong place? Though one can't rule out a few stonkers within the ensembles. Obviously! But, lest we forget, T+384 weather charts are only a little more reliable than the Trump Administration's mail service!
  34. 12 likes
    If you're unhappy with the moans about this winter, I suggest you steer clear of a thread dedicated to moans about this winter.
  35. 12 likes
    Bottom up is troposphere led, not stratosphere. Back to the dance and who leads who. GP is referring to the signal for second half of January which sees equatorial convection return to the western Pacific and the GEFS punt for a Scandy/Euro block a bit like late November combined with a strong North Pacific ridge. I don’t have access to 14 day EPS so assume his data shows a similar wave 2 pinch. This is the best case scenario we have to hope grows wings. It has always been on the table as an option and the hope is that it could create a split flow in the Atlantic with the southerly arm helping enhance a block over Scandy with easterly flow underneath. The current spike in GLAAM provides a supportive momentum context in the medium term. Fingers crossed.
  36. 12 likes
    Ec 46 looks a bit more seasonal for jan .....nothing wildly spectacular showing on the means but surface temps are around or a little below average across the U.K. ..... that’s a start !
  37. 11 likes
    SPECIAL REQUEST MR HIGH PRESSURE at your next junction to avoid spillage of toys and wet towels as well as a huge traffic que of disappointed coldies
  38. 11 likes
    See my latest post in the model tweets thread from Simon Lee suggesting that the ECM also going towards the scandi blocking situation.... Could our patience finally get rewarded? Long way to go but fingers crossed it is the real deal this time
  39. 11 likes
    No consistent signal of any major pattern change. GFS after D10 indicating the tPV on the move across to the other side of the NH. The mean: 0z mean D8+ This suggests that the flow of lower height pushed further north so we should see heights rise over the UK sector. The 06z continues with this theme: D1D14> The tPV remains dominant and even the oscillating Pacific High cannot penetrate that voracity. Pretty ordinary for the next 10-12 days for us southerners, though mountain goats and Scotland could see something more seasonal at times, in the alternating PM zonal flow. Possible colder highs if this pattern persists at the end of FI. Looking at the cold upper air, a great profile in late FI: Cold spilling to mid-lats and potential for the UK to share in something if things click and nice to see Europe getting some much needed cold. It is all there for a cold spell if we can get some forcing or good HP cell placement. February could be special for cold for some regions.
  40. 11 likes
    saves on heating oil and logs i guess... probably get more snaw in March and April..
  41. 11 likes
    I don’t know why people are whinging about not having snow for Christmas. At least it seems to be a colder one, with dry and sunny conditions.(in London anyway) and this is my coldest Christmas since 2010, although 2017 and 16 were close calls, but milder on the actual day itself. I still have faith a repeat of 2017/18 will happen, maybe in January or February, or even a 1991. There’s still time for change. Even in Latvia this Christmas, there’s no snow, but I know that’s not going to be the case in the near future. The snow always arrives eventually, and like one poster has already mentioned, it was cold a few weeks ago. Plus, October and November were fairly chilly in the UK, it’s just the mild last couple of weeks that’s led people to exaggerate slightly. Yes it’s been mild for the past couple of weeks, but it’s nothing out of the ordinary, and certainly nothing like 2015, or 1987,88 or 1974.
  42. 10 likes
    Afternoon all, Amazing scenes from St John’s. I’ve visited there, it’s a great town with friendly people. They are very used to big snowstorms of course (averaging 335cm of snowfall per year!) but that one really took the biscuit. Back home had a great walk on Ben Ledi on Saturday. Snow cover was thin but the views were tremendous!
  43. 10 likes
    It did look hopeful for a time that the MJO would go through 7 and get to phase 8 at decent amplitude, phases that at good enough amplitude can lead to northern/high lat blocking and -NAO further down the line, given the lag of 10-12 days. However, it looks like we are getting the response of the wave through phase 6 leading to blocking high pressure over the UK/Europe (MLB) but the response from the move into phase 7 is looking rather muted in recent model output. One explanation, that I read by Isotherm a US weather expert on another forum, is that the wave of strongest convection over the Pacific is tending to be along the equator and the southern hemisphere tropics of the Pacific - so this is having less impact on the upper flow of the northern hemisphere than was hoped. Given the background state of the strong TPV since mid-December, what little amplification is being made from the convection in the colder phases is having a very muted effect. Couple this with convection firing over the Maritime continent (warm phases) and the ongoing effects if the Indian Ocean Dipole - it appears the MJO does not want hang around or get into colder phases at decent amplitude this winter. But prefers to spend longer in warmer phases. With regards to hoping the eQBO will help us out, again, not as clear cut, yes the QBO is easterly high up in the stratosphere, but it still has yet to descend lower down into the lower stratosphere and certainly far from denting the strong zonal winds at high latitudes - though signs it will do this through February, so may help weaken the PV with time and perhaps allow northern blocking as we end winter. The models still forecasting a decrease in 10 hPa zonal winds in the stratosphere, but its dropping from a very high spike and so forecast, so far, only get to the climatology average - given zonal winds tend to drop anyway on average as we go towards March. So where does that leave us? Nothing showing from the main drivers to change the pattern for a few weeks, though worth keeping an eye on the blocking centred over central Canada perhaps extending its influence towards NW Atlantic and even western Greenland - this *could* be enough to orientate an increasingly cyclonic NW to SE flow across NW Europe as we end January..
  44. 10 likes
    Wild night and day here, bins went flying at about 2 am certainly didn't need to check the radar to tell it was a squall line earlier currently 8.8 C and had 19.5 mm of rain so far today - in other words more akin to autumn than winter.
  45. 10 likes
  46. 10 likes
    Never mind actual snow! Even nonsense, made up, fantasy forecasts have been scarce! I'll enjoy this one until it changes in about 20mins time
  47. 10 likes
  48. 10 likes
    Merry Christmas to all weather watchers.. No sign of any seasonal weather in the next week or so the exact opposite in fact, the Beeb's weather showing a wind direction if in the summer we would have a heat wave and temps up to 13deg/C nearly T-shirt weather.
  49. 10 likes
    Hope your dad gets better quickly, karl.
  50. 10 likes
    We were out and about yesterday for our normal wee tour round central Scotland. Ended up broken down at the Dreghorn Shell garage on the way home so it was a late night. Before that happened it was a "not bad" day for December. Cold, a few light showers and the odd hint of sunshine. Loch Faskally from Pitlochry Dam: Loch Lubnaig from near Strathyre: The River Tummel tipping over Pitlochry Dam: I am looking forward to moving, we're aiming for September and probably somewhere between Strathyre, Killin & Crianlarich
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