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  1. 41 points
    So, the much anticipated eventual pattern evolution that started occupying thoughts at the start of this month to Atlantic trough and Scandinavian ridge aligning exceptional heat are now fully in focus - with a spectacular convective undercut to end this week in parts of the country. Yet another milestone in this amazing summer that wants to keep on building... and then rebuilding. And, also as envisaged, NWP is now fully gunning for the next re-load. Rinse and repeat. How do we maintain faith in the extraordinary pattern further prevailing? First and foremost to answer that - the here and now. The Global Wind Oscillation is now fully capturing the shift in upper tropical forcing to the Pacific and the atmosphere showing all the hallmarks of embracing the beginnings of an El Nino standing wave to keep growing in the rest of the summer and into autumn . The importance of the first embedded plot is less to do with any question attached to performance of model seasonal forecast looking ahead - but more the early imprint of the standing wave which is already recorded. Also, and as shown in the second plot above, the tropical >.extra tropical shift of forcing as described already is represented by highest orbit of the GWO since the huge tropical momentum propagation that led up to the Feb SSW event - currently a high amplitude Phase 4. On the cusp of entry to the El Nino attractor phases 5,6,7 of the GWO In synoptic terms this translates to greater amounts of net westerly winds being added to global wind-flows and propagating via rossby wave dispersion into the extra tropics to support repeated downstream amplification and perpetuating the anticyclonic heat domes - that have been intensifying over many weeks now without sufficient inertia to move them away. The tripole SST imprint in the Atlantic continuing to imprint and reinforce the summer feedback processes What is significant for August is the integration of that fledgling El Nino standing wave ocean/atmosphere coupling that is representative of the eastward shift in upper tropical forcing that has started occurring and implies that the Pacific rossby wave dispersal forcing is on an auto-repeat - and thus likely to transfer to another MJO phase orbit into the Pacific (Phases 5 to 7) into the new month. This mirrors the recent sequence, with a temporary shift back in angular momentum as the current wave fades in line with passage of the kelvin wave before yet another boost upwards as the re-coupling occurs over the Pacific. The subsequent re-coupling being stronger than the first time around. And so on, and so forth. This implies a very likely further orbit back to, at least, elevated GWO Phase 4 which endorses NWP suggestion of ridging returning in the early August period to further build on the heat stoking processes of the summer- and which will keep simmering over vast swathes of mainland Europe to the south and east, regardless of the temporary re-set of the pattern that happens closer to the Atlantic trough this weekend and into the early part of next week and which will bring some welcome rain to many who have not seen any for weeks. Irrespective of likes, dislikes, personal risks and hopes and wishes of holiday-makers and the tourist industry, do weather enthusiasts justify pursuing the challenge to records very possible into the new month? You bet The benchmark set for that of the next couple of days is relative to old records - but also to be potentially matched and even exceeded into the new month. It is, and will continue to be watched very closely
  2. 35 points
    Had to move/hide some posts. Please can we keep this to model discussion, as oppose to a circling pit of blame where those who like heat are given a hard time, and those who prefer the cold are shouted down? It is extremely hard to keep the balance in here, in fact it's been like it all year since we had the significant cold snap. I don't think anyone here wishes the ill effect of the weather on anyone, and it's a bit poor that people feel the need to infer that if someone is talking excitedly about an extreme, then they are wishing harm on people. I am one of those who is interested in the extremes for sure, but. I don't for one second wish that anyone ends up squashed flat by an EF5 tornado. Does this make me a terrible person also? No. It makes me a weather enthusiast. If there isn't already (and I'm sure there is) then may I suggest that if there's the burning desire to debate the impacts of incoming heat/storms/whatever, then someone opens a thread for it. Thanks, please continue.
  3. 33 points
    I think its a given that everyone understands we are not twinned with Ayers Rock - but there is understandable interest in heat records at unusual times like this However, while balance is always a very good thing, that that certainly doesn't mean over compensating by putting an absurdly over dampened and misconstrued slant on realities.. A small minority continue to unhelpfully distort perspective for reasons only they will know. *Its her broken record time once more I know* but always necessary to read between the lines when it comes to NWP and accept that a diagnostic approach to numerical models can help decipher where signals are being misconstrued or overdone. The few overreactive and unsubstantiated comments on this thread are much harder to comprehend than the intra day variations and apparent departures that the numerical models all too often come up with - and which promote the reactions themselves. So good reasons, yet again, to step back and try and see the trees for the wood NWP not surprisingly jumping on the tropical signal waning over the Pacific which leads to the temporary loss of influence of the Scandinavian ridge. Hence it fully explains why the trough has greater influence at the weekend into early next week than seemed apparent. But then guidance has been steady in troughs bumping up against the summer ridging and so really what is happening is still within the envelope of possibilities stated on the tin. Stating the obvious perhaps, but I do think that nothing more, nothing less should be made of this than it merits. Set against this extraordinary summer as a whole and in context of the much bigger picture outlook it is a mere snapshot in time and really doesn't merit over dramatization. As discussed yesterday, the tropical signal looks set to re-emerge back over the Pacific (its not just my own modest consensus on this) and its a matter of timing in terms of ressurection of our summer ridging closer by as the trough recedes to the NW.. There are going to be some adjustments to angular momentum with this passage of events and its wise not to prematurely seize on NWP solutions which while they may not be wholly incorrect, may well amount to temporary positions and not end games in themselves. As alluded to yesterday in this respect the GWO is now on the cusp of the El Nino attractor phase 5 This is a clear sign that the atmosphere is embracing a weak El Nino shift. With the shifts in tropical activity we are seeing to the Pacific that are part of a long term change in regime, then its intuitive to expect westerly winds bursts to be associated with this which will have the effect of Asian jet extensions in the extra tropics that will serve to promote cyclonic activity in the Pacific. The downstream ramifications of this is to promote a corresponding trough and ridge configuration in the Atlantic and European sector. The longer term trend of uptick of activity in the Pacific also suggests the sub tropical Jetstream increasingly coming into play as time goes on which supports further advection of heat from the south with ridging overlaying advancing troughs. Its still early and not the strongest signal (yet) but EPS clusters starting to play around with this theme With all that in mind then its interesting that EPS is keener to see a more -ve NAO signal than the operational So best to wait and see how NWP resolves matters and not take too much at face value over the coming days in terms of initial placement of positioning of the re-setting of the ridge and where any trough sets up that counters the intuitive solutions. That also is a cautionary word to anyone who is tempted to try to suggest that further reload of a very warm/hot pattern is being indefinitely postponed
  4. 32 points
    Unsurprisingly I very much share the sentiments of both @tight isobar and @Singularity Why is it a modelling bomb? That exaggerates and masks the reality Its not necessary to repeat the whole extracts of yesterday but best to look at ensemble means and then integrate them into the bigger diagnostic picture as described and not take each and every operational output at face value. Its a big pity that the focus of continuing to make temperature records is detracting from the fact that the outlook continues to be very much an above average summer one with conditions that many would jump for joy about in an average summer. The modelling looks to be attempting to repeat the early-mid summer pattern with a sub tropical ridge extension with the heat axis focussed around how sharp the cut-off features are to the south west to advect the greatest heat northwards and north eastwards. This in itself isn't a bad thing anyway by any means - with a lot of highly enjoyable summer weather. Many will be very happy with temps well into the twenties without need for record breaking heat (as interesting and exciting as it is to see from an enthusiast point of view) so as to live day to day comfortably But the difference this time around, and why it was stated yesterday that the latest solutions are not necessarily end-games, is that the atmospheric circulation has started adopting a more Nino-like feedback (for all the detailed reasons and illustrations given) which doesn't support Atlantic ridging sustainably and I suspect once the upper tropics start to register the next round of tropical forcing and associated rise in angular momentum the pattern will adjust east with re-set of the Atlantic trough and ridge to the NE. This suggests that further plume conditions cannot yet be ruled out - as said yesterday its about timing of such a development That is actually the less settled outcome as we are currently seeing. Its no coincidence that the warmth of this summer has sustained long-term from the 'home-grown' variety topped up with some tropical maritime air in the circulation of the sub tropical ridging. In other words a stable high pressure environment. Its no coincidence that the appearance of a plume has injected instability into the equation which in turn helps facilitates a breakdown. That is the risk vs reward factor of east/west patterns. These plume patterns can of course be cyclical in themselves with continual re-loads following thundery breakdowns. A summer such as 1994, just for example, featured quite a lot of this type of pattern during June and July We should count ourselves very lucky in 2018 that we have a summer which is featuring both kinds of anomalously warm patterns. These sorts of summer do not come about very often
  5. 27 points
    I'm afraid apart from this weekend, I have to entirely disagree with this post. Yes this weekend is looking very unsettled now for many but this this has been the case for some time now so is no surprise (and not a downgrade as a result!) You mention that the GFS and UKMO struggles to settle things down....well here is the UKMO at 144 hours. Looks far from being unsettled and is an improvement on what it was showing yesterday. The low in the Atlantic retreating and high pressure building firmly across all of the UK. Not what I would suggest as 'struggling to settle down' so could be construed as being misleading. You reference the GFS being an outlier in terms of heat for next week....well having a look through the ensemble members within the suite, all of the perturbations at 192 have the high pressure system thoroughly in control of the conditions bring hot or very hot conditions. Approx 80% of the members with the 15c isotherm over the UK. Only 20% of members have the high in a slightly different position with less hot uppers but still mid to high twenties at surface level. Here are all ensuite members at 192. Here is the representative mean at the same timeframe with a large blocking high pressure and mean uppers between 10 and 16c widely north to south. In addition, when you compare the operational run to all other members including the control run, you will see it was one of the, if not the coldest member within its suite. There is significant support widely this morning for a lengthy spell of hot or very hot conditions developing mid week onwards and lasting well into August. The GEM is also brilliant from midweek to day 10. There is absolutely no downgrade this morning.
  6. 25 points
    Should the models land as envisaged by the Ensembles then the 2018 summer is on a par in terms of stationary blocking to 1962/63 winter... Poss / prob record breaker we could get all time high Monthly CET & record summer CET at the end of August..
  7. 23 points
    Hail from the storm in York. Wouldn't want that falling on your head!
  8. 22 points
  9. 22 points
    @Singularity Yes, the usual caveats and cautionary words for deterministic MJO modelling - especially with this Pacific forcing Which leads appropriately onto this: Have been wondering for quite a while if this is where we are headed for the last third of the official summer in terms of overall pattern I hesitate to use these composite charts as they need careful assessment of the whole tropical and extra tropical wind-flow spectrum before applying to any suggested evolution of pattern and should never be taken at complete face value - certainly in terms of attempting to translate them into surface pressure detail. But this is consistent enough with transition years to El Nino starting from the Spring, and now showing the atmosphere starting to tentatively embrace a fledgling very weak Nino type of feedback for the first time in a long time... ..and more importantly than that, consistent with where angular momentum and tropical forcing are at this time as reflection of the base state changes that look to prevail the further official autumn approaches. Also seasonal wavelength changes, assuming relative angular momentum does not deviate too much below current levels in the natural tropical cycle (and this will need to be watched) will in my opinion guide the current evolving pattern in this general direction. Furthermore plenty of seasonal modelling supports this type of evolution and its worth noting in this respect also the very extended METO forecast indications heading through August. Taking heed of my own cautionary advice with respect to the composite chart above - the depth of the trough anomaly into Europe should best be interpreted as heat lows with the focus being the main upper trough to the west increasingly taking on a more disrupted aspect to the south west at the same time as the ridging to our NE overspreads the trough somewhat. So a continental feel to the weather and perhaps more prone to thundery disruption within the huge heat field that has taken siege occupation of much of Europe. I would like to see this as an acid test of some data, and as to be expected to be said by me, not a forecast - as I do not try to attempt these. But based on personal interpretation of the GSDM, in which a lot of kudo-faith is placed, and the way that NWP (ignoring the daily calf on roller-skates accident-prone type tendencies) is showing willing to stumble its way along this path as led most realistically by the upper modelling outlook forecasts, then it seems an intuitively fair suggestion to put out there. I think its also reasonable as part of this thinking to add support to Mushy's feasibility equation of a main heat spike dome in the early part of August. At least to some degree. If the trough pattern is to evolve, eventually, towards the SW as part of the above process, then its logical enough to assume that at least some of that greater heat (over and above the already existing very upwards adjusted levels of the summer so far) might be backed westwards - at least for a time. The ECM has been appearing progressive currently, relatively, with the pattern up to day 10. But even within this snapshot of time (which is all it is) one cannot ignore the next acceleration of trend in early August which is immediately beyond this period - in that respect not too different from GFS. And, which also leads full circle to the start of the post and the likelihood that Pacific forcing is not done with so soon. These stats might be London based, but taking into consideration the rationale eschewed in the post, it might be the greatest chance for wider plume advection. Its possible thereafter that a generally warm and humid regime prevails as the very greatest heat is mixed out and with scope for the drought to be alleviated to some degree as the heat more generally destabilises over larger areas within the evolving August regime. But that is filed away under pending based on how, precisely, the coming weeks play out. Summer 18 as a season has some weeks left in it, and in terms of its prevailing highly seasonal weather type, has quite some way to go yet
  10. 21 points
    Just adding one more point to the discussion- Why are we talking records being broken next weekend-? We are looking at about 36/37 degrees in the Extreme SE on Friday with a slither of upper air temp @18c- The original core heat over spain was maxed out at 21/22c - which in truth isnt 'that' hot for them - ( probably average spanish uppers ) Now move forward 10 days & the plume thats potentially developing for the UK actually develops North out of Africa with uppers bordering 30c (192 ) This is like cold pooling in winter - with the +30c line being like the -26c line getting towards Berlin. This moves North & modifies as it does but the size of the heat bubble proper trumps this week - *IF* this alligns Northwards out of Africa > Spain > North to UK & we get the 21c isotherm over the sea we will break the record. 100% S
  11. 21 points
    So, its very warm to hot for most of this week , a cooler blip come weekend, and then there seems to be a growing signal for the heat to rebuild as we move through next week. The EC mean is primed by day 10 to re introduce a plume from Spain. You really have to tip your hat to Tamara who has been incredibly accurate in recent weeks.. Summer 2018 is surpassing all expectations/hopes. edit With so many brilliant contributors to this forum its hard to single out people but i forgot to mention stormchaser who has also been absolutely brilliant with his analysis and reasoning. Thanks to these guys and all the others who make this forum both educational and a thoroughly enjoyable reading.
  12. 20 points
    Summer ( stated in weather terms rather than official season) is certainly not over for me by a long way. This late Spring and summer has been a very welcome tonic and help to ongoing personal wellbeing and health matters as well as enjoyable to monitor such highly interesting weather patterns this year from the weather enthusiast and study level perspective Whilst mid 30 degree heat isn't any essential pre-requisite - its highly interesting to watch and monitor the degree of heat from a stats point of view and, taken overall, this summer has been the best in my opinion for a very long time. Though that is my own perception and feel no need whatsoever to "convert" anyone to it if they disagree or make them feel inadequate or guilty for appreciating something different. The conditions this particular weekend represent some welcome rain to give people, animals and some utility infrastructure a break - but in pure weather parlance are the exception to the rule in the way that a brief glance of heat arrives for a couple of days in our poorest summers which would be dominated by days such as this wet Sunday Its natural to find cloying heat hard for day to day activities, but then being a country with a maritime climate (and even accounting for the long term warming trend) it means that homogenously continental types of weather still remain relatively occasional overall in terms of longer lasting sustainability. With all this in mind, its no surprise that not being accustomed to a prolonged land-locked weather influence means not being used to dealing with it appropriately. Notwithstanding that, I was asked by three lost Spanish tourists this week for some local directions and in wishing them a pleasant stay and enjoy our weather they mentioned how bemused they were that "British" people are either mesmerised by, or moan, and struggle with hot conditions - and that it takes up such an absurd amount of media time and discussion on the street. British people are also at least partly paralysed by such unusual departures from the norm because habitual behaviour, daily routine, lifestyle, working hours and conditions (work/lifestyle balance) are completely out of kilter with all the curve balls that Mother Nature invariably throws at us being at the crossroads to a giant ocean one side and huge landmass on the others - as well as meeting place for air-masses from every compass vector. In that sense it is not just the nearby continental mainland that can teach us a thing or two, its much further afield where lifestyle, attitude and culture is much more sensibly flexible and intuitively attuned to greater extremes. The types of extreme heat over the continent in some of the hottest summers (which occasionally we have shared to some degree) have justifiably been covered extensively in the national media news of those countries and promoted emergency contingencies. But regularly very warm/hot temperatures in summer being the norm do not get splashed all over the paper and the fact that most of the indigenous population will be having an al fresco meal. This aspect of overreaction I find, as a native, quite unflattering in terms of how it will be (rightfully) perceived as absurd by the bemused outside world. Across the stretch of water that splits this island from the large continent, however serious and threatening to vulnerable people the most serious extremes of heat have been, contingencies are still been carried out in a measured and calm manner on the basis that there is natural anticipation of this type of weather as a seasonal augmentation of the norm. We may more rarely see such extremes of temperature, but nonetheless much more could be done to anticipate such conditions and not always act so hysterically surprised and slow to act when temperature anomalies of the kind seen in this and some of our other hottest summer come along. In that sense, we seem no further forward in 2018 to how we were in 1976. Allowing for the fact that the drought back then was exacerbated by the dry winter which preceded the heat and dryness of that summer. The water utilities manage in the 21st century to tell the consumer to cut down consumption whilst doing nothing with the private money kept under the company bosses mattress to fix the aging pipes! The big difference of course was that social media was non existent in 1976 - and in that sense on a simple local community basis help to others was provided blissfully ignorant and free of any platform to endlessly spout off and moan about it. People communicated with the gifts they were born with instead - directly verbally and face to face. And simply got on with it instead of navel gazing and judging others. You didn't send a text message to your frail neighbour because clearly you couldn't (and assuming they would have had a tablet or phone of course even if such a thing existed!) You phoned them, if it was possible, to speak to them to see if they were ok and/or simply most often went and checked on them face to face - or communities arranged this automatically word of mouth on the basis that there was no electronic network to spread the word. I'm not that old - but old enough to remember the difference. Much more could be written about this and expanded to other seasons, very much winter included. But the relevant aspect to this site, as linked to the social media world in general, is the circular repetitive "insert weather preference vs weather preference* tribal bickering and guilt tripping epitomises so much part of the negative aspect of social media and its navel gazing self indulgence. As with every aspect of life, there is too much ease of too much information which includes having an opinion on anything and everything and feeling the need to ram it down everyone else throat - simply because its the possible to do so and often because its a symptom of an entrenched one dimensional mind. Everyone has their own preferences with the weather as with all other things - and I found for example the cold and wet conditions that seemed to set in early last autumn and persisted right up to (and then after) the freeze of late winter and reprise in March had a negative effect on my own health. Putting the magic of snow aside, which is the omnipresent lingering child excitement that many including myself share, it had seemed to me at least a very long time since there had been any warmth and sunshine and by the time it arrived in April it seemed( to me at least) so much more overdue it was welcome even more than it would usually be But other will disagree and have their own reasons for this on both personal and preference level. There is no right or wrong. However on a general basis its perfectly possible to cut out the repeated moaning and excessive personal information and to both enjoy the weather itself for its guises as well as be objective and take enjoyment from trying to analyse the weather patterns (irrespective of preference) For anyone who finds a weather type unhelpful or negative to their well-being its surely possible to air some of these concerns through personal message, that should be the correct way to do it I would think. Also of course there is nothing wrong with a (one off) post expressing individual struggle or worry in an appropriate thread to receive the kindness, sympathy support and advice from others it deserves, This is an important and heart-warming thing. But the tribal preference bickering and some of the endless repetitive nannying. self indulgence and sanctimonious preaching on threads like this to anyone who gets excited by any "offending" weather preference is, frankly, unwanted and tiresome anathema. There are very few surely on this forum who want anyone to suffer in any way from heat extremes as much as from a falling tree on their house from destructive winds (one of my own private worries in such weather!) to suffering from no electricity and burst pipes in the biggest freezes to crashing a car in thick fog etc etc etc Different things work for different people. But there is always a constructive way of dealing with things. For me, discussion of the weather patterns has further advantages beyond the engrossing mental challenge that is never complete and never ending and seems a better way of spending time on a site like this than tribal bickering (and making personal judgements of others) over weather preferences
  13. 20 points
    Never mind all this heat, lets have some more of this, lets hope we carry on where we left off at the end of last winter.
  14. 19 points
    The Met Office said that back in August 2003, when 38.5C occurred, the 1000- 850 hPa thickness was 142.5 to 142.8 dam. Not quite that is showing on Friday. Never mind sunshine amounts/Cloud/TS. 36.7C July record does look likely to be beaten, and exciting week. Glad I'm not in it though.
  15. 19 points
    Well it was a strange experience watching that 12z GFS roll out earlier. So much so that I'm going to provide some details, for entertainment value: Here at +168, the 12z on the right compared to the 06z on the left has a more conducive jet stream alignment to building the Scandinavian blocking high closer to our shores over the following few days, as the jet up the western flank of the block is stronger (better warm air advection aloft) and the jet to the SW of the UK is diving more to the south. Yet just two days later the blocking high seems to be just falling apart in-situ on the 12z run (middle chart), and a very peculiar section of flat jet stream has manifested in the N. Atlantic. I've never seen that manner of jet occur in a location with only a weak trough in position (rightmost chart). The 06z had the more natural (for weak troughs under +AAM regime) buckled jet and maintenance of the blocking high E and NE of the UK. It makes the difference between the blocking high persisting to day 10 and beyond and it being 'punctured' by the jet stream, leading to a (probably too rapid on this run anyway - it is GFS after all) capitulation with a more westerly upper flow taking over to our NE. Perhaps it was just a fluke run, with the misjudgement of the mid-Atlantic profile setting off a chain reaction - chaos theory in all its glory. Time will tell, but I'd be stunned if it wasn't, given the strong misalignment with the tropical forcing at play. To be fair to it though, all of the models are finding more westerly progressiveness and SW-NE ('semi-zonal', you might say) alignment to the troughs than could be expected with the +AAM background and eastward MJO propagation, likely due to their ongoing struggle at resolving the latter. I mean just look at this. Day after day, the EPS mean (shown as ECMF) seeks to kill the MJO off, and yet apart from a brief pause on 18th, the MJO has propagated eastward. So what about today? Another move east and a gain in amplitude! Honestly, this is the worst model handling of the MJO that I've witnessed since I started paying close attention during the winter of 2009/10. I believe it's a case of atmospheric inertia being underplayed against a Pacific tropical SST pattern that's only weakly supportive of the propagation. Perhaps this is where tight isobar's confidence has had some roots...? It may be too late for this MJO calamity to have much effect on the track of the Sun-Mon trough, but it might be enough to keep the S and SE under very warm or quite hot conditions (edit: just checked the rainfall charts for the ECM 12z and it has the front reaching all but the far southeast corner having already brought some intermittent rain to much of the south on Sunday afternoon! A shocking result given the signals but as CS alludes to, the trough evolution is dubious. You never know though!). I expect we'll gain a good idea about that within the next few days. Then... we'll see. I'd not entirely mind being wrong in that I could then enjoy something more akin to the May-June pattern of ridging from the southwest with relatively comfortable temperatures, but it would feel like an affront to teleconnection theory (tropical forcing is now very different to what we had May-June!) so I'm very divided in opinion! Regardless of the outcome, it's been very interesting and educational watching these models take on a combination of changing upstream forcing and unusual amounts of hot air amassing over the near continent, and I expect this will continue to be the case for a while longer yet .
  16. 18 points
    Agreed - not sure what all the fuss is about TBH... Same people saying the same the same recycled posts from last week.. Thats the ones saying that this weeks heat was downgrading & almost outrage when I said we would get North of 35C Now look today we are still talking probabilities of 38c going. All this waffle about downgrades - dont let em fool you, the original plume was forecast Friday next week & its pretty much on track as expected... Another 35c here we come...
  17. 17 points
    Indeed UKMO builds the moderate heat into the SE again ( circa 25c ) as early as day 4 - with 30c a possibility on day 6 in the SW.. So all in all pretty much as originally planned ....
  18. 16 points
    Explosive convection to my west in Norwich. I can see it growing, its immense! Not seen anything like it before except on Storm Chasers on the TV
  19. 16 points
    In an-average summer (not that this is!) Some would likely be raving about set ens-set up-. Especialy as we migrate a little further into the new month of august! They remain firm and notable to pressure rises going forwards...and with the 'already' mass in place iberian/southeastern euro warm/hot pool firmly in-place the possibilities of aligned placements for a uk tap in remain firmly on the table. Surface cond's also stark in there note of remaing above/well above going forwards. Its a the moment as if the models(bar gem) are desperate to resort to default..and with the slight expance of atlantic cooling thats is going to happen as complexities are deciphered!. Im still of the opinion that august will have at least blasts of hot iberian/continental surge. And again with some eye catching temps. And it will certainly be an, interesting watch...seeing how cross model suites unfold ...especialy once the weekend closes. Edit; taking all onboard id expect the mods to slowly begin to make less of the atlantic influence-and more of dominance via a southerly traction of weather into NWeuro as a whole...including the uk.
  20. 16 points
    Looks like some could see a decent thundery breakdown of the heatwave from Thursday night through to early Saturday, as the upper flow ahead of upper trough to the west strengthens and becomes increasingly cyclonic which will, by creating increasing large scale ascent and cooling aloft, will start to destabilise a very hot and humid airmass in place across eastern Britain. could see some mid- level destabilisation from the south as early as Thursday night across SE/E England, as hot and moist plume characterised by high theta-w values advecting N destabalises in the mid- levels as upper air starts to cool from the west steepening lapse rates and one or two short waves run N/NE creating lift. These potential elevated storms clearing Friday morning but still an increasingly hot and humid airmass in place across E England which looks to become increasingly unstable at the surface too as temps rise into low 30s in any sunshine, with surface sea breeze convergence inland perhaps the trigger for some surface based storms across E England, E Mids and N England, aided by continuing cooling aloft / steepening lapse rates and increasingly large scale ascent aloft of approaching upper trough to the west. Vertical shear will be on the increase too, as strengthening Sly flow / jet stream slides in aloft ... so scope for severe storms with all hazards to develop. This is ahead of cold front moving in from the west and clearing eastern England Friday night, which itself may bring a band of thundery rain east. some differences between these models on timing of this potential episodes of storms, GFS more progressive in moving everything east compared to slower ECM and UKMO, so a little uncertainty over detail, suffice to say storms most likely across eastern side of Britain.
  21. 16 points
    Looking at Friday, we are slowly heading towards a consensus. UKMO/GFS GFS a tiny bit further east but very little in it now. Further on and the UKMO again suggests that any push of westerlies will have a very tough time with the heat holding on in the far east even into Saturday before pressure begins to rebuild from the south and south west. The GFS has a similar idea though again pushes things a little further east with the initial surge of heat. I can't really see any prolonged return to cooler weather with a recovery in pressure looking very swift along with the return of very warm air from the south and for some the warmth may potentially never leave at the end of this week.
  22. 16 points
    Guys, don’t reply to posts you feel are trolling, please report them and the team will sort them. more replies = more posts to remove to get the discussion on track and quite honestly it is waaaaaay too hot for me to be doing this at 10.30 on a Sunday night with an errant 3 year old that won’t sleep. Don’t feed em! (kids, trolls, gremlins etc)
  23. 15 points
  24. 15 points
    I don't usually post in here in summer , I can't stand hot weather and it's all bout cold and snow for me . But come on mate you can't moan about this weekend not being as good as recent weeks . The hot weather has lasted since April down here , we need a break from it . A nice cooler wet weekend will do me fine . Bring on the storms . All I have left to say is roll on winter . Hope it ends up like the chart below .
  25. 15 points
    Warmest day of the year in the UK today- Uppers of just 15/16c & we managed to get to 33.3c. Thats lapse rates of about 18c Bring on the 20c line - 35c to be breached this week...
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