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  1. 16 likes
    I think we need to be cautious of comparisons heading through Spring and towards Summer between 2007 and 2017. There are some similarities for sure in a few respects, but also subtle and important differences 1) In 2007 at this time we were progressing quickly into a moderate La Nina event with global atmospheric angular momentum falling significantly into the summer. In mid late Spring 2017 we are firmly in neutral ENSO conditions with a slight bias towards official El Nino conditions developing from later this summer http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm 2) QBO Easterly (negative) downwelling phase much more progressed in 2007 than 2017 2007 hPa JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 10 -226 -318 -326 -338 -368 -208 -15 50 107 111 180 213 12 -253 -313 -318 -336 -353 -371 -142 -15 60 109 172 226 15 -266 -296 -317 -321 -320 -330 -329 -245 -70 42 115 192 20 -231 -226 -250 -278 -304 -318 -324 -333 -343 -319 02 125 25 -89 -69 -115 -233 -285 -292 -324 -332 -339 -331 -296 -28 30 54 53 14 -147 -253 -297 -313 -316 -321 -316 -320 -265 35 82 90 80 22 -184 -262 -293 -288 -298 -289 -290 -306 40 97 107 111 90 -71 -204 -242 -260 -265 -263 -262 -278 45 107 111 109 120 49 -126 -171 -212 -221 -218 -230 -249 50 96 111 103 128 92 -39 -100 -151 -162 -175 -204 -200 60 55 91 78 114 109 56 -13 -40 -33 -51 -98 -100 70 41 34 55 91 99 79 21 -08 12 28 04 -30 80 33 -09 37 26 69 51 16 13 21 16 22 -33 90 35 -17 17 -17 35 -10 -11 -39 -20 -80 15 -115 100 08 -20 -10 -29 00 -60 -61 -106 -117 -204 -61 -210 2017 hPa JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 10 2 10 -162 12 76 75 -40 15 112 123 73 20 142 159 131 25 161 169 145 30 171 177 153 35 169 185 155 40 165 170 158 45 155 166 141 50 132 145 107 60 77 94 28 70 15 36 10 80 -22 21 11 90 -55 -21 -1 100 -150 -80 -38 3) Taking 1) and 2) together, progressively tanking -ve GLAMM and QBO teleconnected strongly with (at the time) record low arctic sea ice to favour anomalous arctic heights and a southerly tracking jet in 2007. The risk of those synoptics happening again this year cannot of course be completely ruled out in times that are more and more unprecedented year on year in terms of looking at previous analogues, but suffice to say residual +QBO at the surface *probably* lasting well into the summer should align well with relative angular momentum propped up by the expected ENSO state in the Pacific (quite unlike 2007) to produce at least some periods of Western European ridging (fine warm summer conditions) rather than any predominating higher latitude blocking and UK/European trough. In that regard, nothing untoward should be read into the present attempts by the models to programme northern blocking into the new month. It should be expected that negative zonal winds across the polar field in conjunction with the final warming of the stratosphere should produce at least one or two phases of HLB at this time of year, but without the wider background ingredients in place such as were present in summers like 2007, little more at this time should be read into trying to extrapolate these months ahead. 4) Of the here and now: Both total and relative angular momentum have responded to tropical activity passage through the Pacific with westerly winds added to the global circulation Tropical convection patters are the engine of future pattern changes it is true, but as applies in winter and any other time of year, this is not a stand alone phenomenon and it is always wiser to look at the whole atmospheric circulation budget which includes the extra tropics and reflects total global wind-flow. This is measured and reflected by the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) The amount of total "westerlyness" in the global circulation determines the predominance of downstream amplified ridges when angular momentum is higher under these conditions The atmosphere is in not too different a place to where it was in February. This was the last time we saw a notable spike in angular momentum tendency and which coincided with attempts to build higher latitude blocks early in that month. This time, the FW of the stratosphere has augmented that process and the tropical signal in the Pacific has been a little more durable. Accordingly, the GWO has mirrored the phase progression seen in February but with a marginally stronger and slightly slower amplitude orbit into the Nino type Phases 5,6,7. We should expect angular momentum to start falling back as the current tropical wave fades from the eastern Pacific. Caution though should be taken in terms of how the models programme the mid and higher latitudes over the coming first half of May period because there is a highly likely absolute floor limit to the fall-back of AAM in terms of the evolving ENSO background. In this respect, another litmus test of where the atmospheric/ocean circulation is jiving is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). In association with tropical and extra tropical signals, whilst still officially neutral this has been tanking negatively once again with El Nino type westerlies being injected into the global circulation and rossby waves transferring polewards from the tropics. Looking further ahead, if we take into account the periodicity of the MJO (up to 60 days) and the general ENSO trends in the Pacific, then it is not unrealistic to expect another eastward progressing MJO wave as we usher in official summer In the absence of the -QBO wave prematurely downwelling as occurred in Summer 2007, and no La Nina descent signal in the Pacific expected to allow angular momentum to fall too far, then the effects of the seasonal stratospheric break-up should be able to diffuse in a way to favour at least some summertime mid-latitude ridging with phases of migrating Atlantic troughs re-setting the pattern, rather than heights displaced to the west and north and a downstream trough over UK,/W Europe and into Scandinavia. So what will be key to watch will be how far the return tide mark of angular momentum is through May as the tropical progression fades and then renews. If this is higher, or at least no lower than seen early March following the previous wave, then this will bode more favourably as one important ingredient for a decent opening to summer.
  2. 14 likes
    It reminds me of rescuing lambs from snowdrifts on May 1st 1979. Only time ever heard cuckoo calling during a bizzard.
  3. 12 likes
    Lying to below Aviemoregus is Loch Morlich where it's currently -0.7°c at the beach. Updating Cam: http://www.winterhighland.info/cams/cairngorm-mountain/morlich.php
  4. 11 likes
    Really potent Arctic blast by late April standards early / midweek according to the Gfs 6z with snow just about anywhere and some very sharp damaging frosts, especially over the snow fields on higher ground. I'm looking forward to it!
  5. 11 likes
    With all due respect I am not a professional forecaster and never have been. I worked for the METO for 42 years but not in a forecasting role but as such I have had a keen interest in meteorology and science for many years and I also have a Bsc (Hons) For your information I most certainly was not mocking the original poster or the follow up but trying to make a constructive criticism of a comment that was, and is, totally unjustified. The models and weather forecasting are scientific disciplines, and still very much in their infancy, and should be treated as such. Keeping that in mind there are far too many statements made in this thread, very much along the one in question, that are taken as fact without question and this is not only ridiculous but totally misleading to people who in, in your own words, are trying to learn. If you, and others, cannot see that a comment such as the ecm "has serious issues" requires some scientific justification then so be it. As for arrogance and posting more constructive replies. Well one thing I have always attempted to do is post constructively, in a thread not renown for the latter. I will not waste my time from now on. And finally on the subject of arrogance. I find it very arrogant to criticize a model which has a deserved reputation, given the limitations that still apply in this field, in this throw away fashion without feeling the need to at offer a soupcon of scientific justification. Time and again the northerly at day ten hasn't materialized does not suffice.Anyway I will leave you to it.
  6. 10 likes
    A covering here this morning .A stormy looking sky more reminiscent of November and currently 2c.
  7. 10 likes
    morning gang ,not posted lately but i am lurking and reading ,very interesting charts and a big thanks to all regular posters who keep this forum buzzing ,lets hope someof us get to see some white stuff ,cheers gang
  8. 10 likes
    Quite a bit of activity in here today must mean one of two things at this time of year either a heatwave is on the way, or an arctic snowy blast..On this occasion it could be a case of the latter, strong indications we will see a classic straight deep rooted unstable northerly come early next week, with very cold uppers wrapped in the mix. Indeed first time this 'season' we are projected sub 522 dam air over northern half of the country - a signal of just how absent arctic airstream has been since well exactly a year ago. I said yesterday northerlies are most likely to occur at this time of year than at any other stage in the year. Still some way to go before we can be confident of the cold blast, but if the charts verify as shown, expect some damaging frosts next week, chance of widespread wintry showers in the north, and possibility of snow cover on occasion, with maxes struggling to make more than 5-6 degrees, and colder under any precipitation. Not unusual for late April mind. Last year on the 30 April we had snow at noon with a temp of 0 degrees.
  9. 10 likes
    Wednesday looks a very chilly day for late April, heavy showers turning wintry esp on higher ground midlands northwards, even snow starved southerners could see wet flakes of snow esp late afternoon\early evening when we should see sharp drops in temperature, exposed higher parts combined with wind chill factor could feel very raw indeed, this is a direct arctic sourced northerly folks, GEM 12Z is a thing of beauty, greenland/mid atlantic block and winds from a northerly quarter right til the end.
  10. 10 likes
    Strong cross model agreement today, theme remains a dry one overall and quite chilly, with a northerly shown for early next week, and a full on turbo charged northerly with strong Greenland heights and deep long wave trough - frost and wintry showers would be the order of the day at least in the north. UKMO and ECM very similar at the 144 hr timeframe. Things can change, but there is now a strong signal for such developments, resulting in the first period of below average temps since mid-late Jan. We are at the time of year when northerlies reach their yearly maxim i.e. late April and May is when we are most likely to see a northerly, the chances of such synoptics verifying now are far higher in terms of probability than any other time of year.
  11. 9 likes
    I can't recall a May with N blocking as strong as what is shown on the ECM and GFS this evening. Even 1996 isn't as spectacular. It really is eye catching. On the plus side, the S of the country may eventually get some useful rain as pressure lowers to the SW and slow moving fronts are propelled N across the southern half of the UK. The N would tend to be drier in such a scenario.
  12. 9 likes
    Some sleet and wet snow up here in Shetland. A dusting of lying snow on the higher ground at the moment. Temp currently 1.9C, dew 0.7C, Wind NNE @ 21 kts
  13. 9 likes
    ECM now coming on board, cold end of April looking more likely.
  14. 9 likes
    All these northerlies have been wrong, again and again and again......so it don't matter which model is showing them we just end up with the kebab leftovers if we are lucky. Why do the models keep showing them then? With all due respect you are the professional forecaster so instead of rubbishing genuine posters who are following run after run with interest and trying to learn, you could show less arrogance and post more constructive replies that guide rather than mock. Anyway GFS sticks to its guns,
  15. 9 likes
    UKMO looking possibly even better if you are liking the idea of a white Easter.
  16. 9 likes
    First time posting in here so "Hi" to all! Would like to say a huge thanks to @knocker and @Frosty. in particular, for keeping this thread going when the majority have abandoned ship during these quiet times. Your analysis and expert opinion is most appreciated! Just wondering if anyone has any idea why the models have got it so wrong this winter in showing the holy grail so often (albeit usually at D10!) In my humble opinion the GFS has been really off on one! Ok, the output correctly showed the lingering highs but the frequent eye candy never materialised so after being an avid model watcher for many years, I have lost faith to some extent and wondered if there is a reason for the models performance this winter?
  17. 8 likes
    What a stunning end it is to ECM BANK!
  18. 8 likes
    Wow 564 dam thicknesses by the end of the Ecm 12z..late in the run the charts look gorgeous and very summer like..temps would be soaring into the high 70's to low 80's F.
  19. 8 likes
  20. 8 likes
    .Had an hour of stormy weather with driving snow gale force gusts and a temperature which fell to 0c resulting in a power loss for about an hour.Cattle bedded and fed more silage. Snow started to settle too. No days like it last winter. Absolutely freezing. Icicles formimg as snow stopped so icing on the line must have been the cause of the power loss. Currently clear and 1c.Lots of snow on the hills to the north.
  21. 8 likes
    Indeed. Cold air now in Shetland. We have already received 6 cm of lying snow today at sea level.
  22. 8 likes
    Fine breezy day but a bit overcast,weeded garden and dry conditions fried weeds but will not sow anything till next weekend. Cattle still in till next weekend Another May turnout.Currently 6.5c The chang to cooler conditions just starting to come across the Firth this evening Dog has secured the best seat for the cold spell next to the rayburn cats and humans can find somewhere else.
  23. 8 likes
    The final outcome may be as you say, but if this model is correct: it will be extremely noteworthy for some southern areas. I cannot ever recall laying snow in these areas so close to May, and I'm not that young. No matter what time of year, you can't really do much colder than this - and very strong agreement too.
  24. 8 likes
    A direct hit next week from the Artic for the UK, three months too late but at the same time could well give us news worthy weather . Models are adimant with this set up and it's still a long way off for detail. As I have mentioned in earlier posts ,perhaps some cold records been broken next week feel sorry for the farmers and growers ....to dry and too cold
  25. 8 likes
    Just wanted to share some events from Central Europe from today,as there is 20cm of snow lying in parts of Bratislava at the moment,nearly being the coldest part of the whole Northern Hemisphere at the moment! That being preceded after coldest January in since 1987,all trees in bloom,hard frost expected on Friday,can kiss goodbye to all the fruit crop like Apples,Cherries etc. Truly exceptional, had to share,lol
  26. 8 likes
    It's looking like a rather cool and dry week for many of us. The Atlantic ridge/Scandinavian trough setup has been a pretty consistent message from modeling over the last few days- a couple of images from the ECM mean outputs for day 4 and 7 gives the general outlook. so cool North Atlantic air coming se around the high bringing below normal temperatures but with little rain looking likely so a mainly dry picture quite widely. Usually in this setup we see quite a lot of cloud coming in off the Atlantic and the odd shower or drizzly outbreaks can't be ruled out as weak fronts move down in the flow. Fax for Sunday shows this sort of pattern. All in all not great but with the extra layer or 2 on ok for getting out and about over Easter.
  27. 8 likes
    Well, yesterday was crackin - up to 18 C according to the car. Today more hazy, but nice the morn and 14 C. Clouding over now. Breezy both days, but still t-shirt weather! Few phone pics from walks with the dugs; weather, flora and fauna etc. Gorse is almost in full bloom and very fragrant to walk through at the moment.
  28. 8 likes
    It felt warm-ish today. Mid afternoon in the sun, the temp rose to 15C, although it felt much cooler in the shade. Nice cloudscapes this evening.
  29. 8 likes
    Probably more suited to the other thread but some big changes in the stratosphere over the next week or so as the final warming gets underway,with the polar vortex going into meltdown mode,which could explain some of the volatility in the anomaly charts John mentioned. AO likely to go negative,so arctic air being pushed to lower latitudes.
  30. 8 likes
    For goodness sake. Is this the handbags and personal squabbles thread this afternoon? If you want to have an argument with someone, take it elsewhere please. And word to the wise: If you hit the report button, telling someone "I've reported you" is not the best way to go about things.
  31. 7 likes
    It was 168hrs and beyond mate.Trust nothing beyond 120 would be my advise, we may have seen a couple of cool outlier solutions but i wouldnt be suprised if we end up with huge Northern blocking at the ecm/ gfs ops suggest..
  32. 7 likes
  33. 7 likes
    Agree with everything you write there @Betleyblizud, such a nice thread to keep us all feeding our snow questing, with some very nice and knowledgeable chaps/esses in residence. My usual go-to webcams at Les Arcs are a depressing sight today, as the white vans move in around the hotels and bars, and the snow ploughs clear away the snow in the ski area; there is not a skier to be seen, yet only a week ago the whole area was buzzing with Easter tourists. It is good to see the @Blessed Weather news article about the summer season, as I like to think these areas continue to have life, even when the snow-seekers leave for another year. I still watch the Iceland webcams, as there are still bits and pieces of snow to be seen, and I fell in love with the place when I went there a year ago. But it's the Caribbean webcams for me for a while - especially Aruba where I just got back from And there are the live Storm Chase streams following @Paul and the crew which become my next focus, if I can stay up late enough to catch them. Looking forward to seeing everyone in here all over again in six months time
  34. 7 likes
    Yeah, it was so crumbly that I had to eat it over the kitchen sink. Mixed feelings about the next few days with regards to my allotment - yay for rain...boo for cold temps as I've a lot of seedlings in a rickety cold frame and my plot is on top of a very chilly hill.
  35. 7 likes
    Howdy. Wee covering here. Some seriously heavy showers around tonight. Was snowing at sea level Skye earlier according to my missus, which really didn't happen much in winter itself. -0.5c
  36. 7 likes
    I've just had hail in East Lothian and now back to blustery sunshine but friends have had snow and earlier thunder Moray/Aberdeenshire border near Huntly
  37. 7 likes
    I have high hopes for May, it looks like it could be a largely summery month with plenty of warm / very warm anticyclonic weather. The GEFS 6z mean looks very encouraging and the latest update from Exeter is fantastic..fingers crossed.
  38. 7 likes
    The Ecm 00z is looking good for a potent cold snap for the time of year for most of next week with cold uppers lasting until / including next thursday. There are some impressive thicknesses at 518 / 520 dam and most of the uk is at risk of wintry ppn and even some snow, especially further north and on hills with frosts becoming widespread, sharp and damaging for a time..Bring it on!
  39. 7 likes
    Great looking Ecm 12z ensemble mean for the first half of next week if you like unseasonably cold wintry weather direct from the Arctic in late April..which I do!
  40. 7 likes
    Reminds me of the back-end of April 1989; not only was it darned cold, it was followed by a very fine summer...So I'm hoping on knocker's analysis coming off, as a warm-up will be very welcome!
  41. 7 likes
    Looking at this morning's anomalies and last nights NOAA the only thing one can say with any conviction is that we looking at a pattern change next week with the demise of the amplified meridional pattern and the unwanted colder spell. Upstream not too bad with the twin lobes Franz Joseph and N. Canada with associated trough Scandinavia and the negatively tilted one orientated into the Atlantic. It could well be the handling of these troughs that is causing the disagreement downstream Although no strong anomalies NOAA and the GEFs are attempting to build a ridge in close proximity to the UK whilst the EPS is making much more of the Atlantic trough. The latter evolution would tend towards more unsettled zonal weather than indicated by the other two. Hopefully this wil quickly get sorted and the det runs start to agree. indications are that temps would still be little below average but rising. Looking further ahea, again no agreement with NOAA tending to be the odd one out although that is possibly down to the longer time period but they are all on the same page, The Atlantic trough takes centre stage but with significant postive anomalies to the north and east of the UK the upper flow backs south west and temps edge above normal. NOAA has gentle westerly upper flow. Actually on reflection GEFS isn't hugely different to NOAA, it's the EPS that pushes the trough further east.
  42. 7 likes
    Looks like the pattern change really is on now. Just in time for the "hotter" part of the year! I fear that having taken so long to get a north Atlantic height anomaly, in the absence of a winter polar jet it may take a while to get rid of it. BBQs probably not needed for the turn of the month and I'm guessing for some time after that.
  43. 7 likes
    January 2010 and December 2010 were colder than any month of the 90s.......March 2013 and April 2012 were colder than any of the Marches and Aprils of the 90s.....
  44. 7 likes
    My cherry picking of a 'warm' chart was merely a tongue-in-cheek post suggesting we are blessed with cold air being dropped over Europe
  45. 7 likes
    For all the cherry picking of "warm" charts, the 06Z OP evolution follows a similar line to the 00Z with disturbances forming to the N of Iceland or off the Greenland coast heading E and then SE into Scandinavia. A wind direction from the NW and occasionally N doesn't suggest and immediate return to spring like conditions and as others have said, the continuing very dry spell is starting to cause some concern. The position and orientation of the HP post-Easter is still far from determined, however, and until that's resolved we won't have a clearer picture. The GEFS offers many solutions and subtle differences to the HP will have more significant impacts over the British Isles.
  46. 7 likes
    Some very cold uppers moving in from the north east of -7/-8c, along with dew points of well below 0c almost everywhere by next Tuesday morning.
  47. 7 likes
    This morning's gfs run. Wednesday midnight sees the main low Faeroes en route east and a weak front tracking south east during the day. And so on to Easter. After brief ridging Friday sees the next low just south of Iceland and associated fronts already impacting the north whilst the south remains under the auspices of the hogh pressure, temps around average.The trough tracks ESE and by 12z Saturday is in the north of the North Sea and the wind has veered NW but still mainly effecting the norther half of the country where wtemps will be a tad below average with the south still remaining predominately dry. From this point there is a fairly rapid transition and in the next 18 hours the low tracks south east into Denmark veering the surface flow northerly, introducing cooler air to all of the UK, with showers in the north and east, before the high pressure cell slides in from the west. The high cell continues to slide east, albeit quite slowly, so Monday looks like being a benign quite pleasant day (according to this of course) before the next upper trough arrives Wednesday midnight and the fun really begins with the previously indicated surge of the amplification and strong ridging to the west. From this point the trough tracks south down the North Sea introducing much colder air into the UK but the detail obviously best left at this time. EDIT And this morning's GEFS anomalies continuing to support the above
  48. 7 likes
    It's set to be a cold unsettled Easter with strong NW / NNWly winds veering Nly if the Gfs 12z is right and it would be cold enough for snow on hills, especially in the north with cold nights and a frost / ice risk..more like winter.
  49. 7 likes
    Just a note- the ECM is just as severe as GFS has been showing. It doesn't matter as it's shown at day 10 but pressure is rising up towards Greenland. Day 11 would show us at the mercy of Scandi troughing and N Atlantic/Greenland heights. If we're to get a N'ly I just hope we get as clean a one as possible so that we get to see some great convective cloudscapes like at the end of April last year.
  50. 7 likes
    I continue to dip in and out of model watching at the moment - and the theme of relatively benign conditions looks like staying, with the wettest cloudiest conditions reserved for the north and west, the south and east enjoying more late spring warmth rather than early spring warmth, feeling more like mid-late May, than early April, though some chilly nights look likely next week, hard to say how high temps will climb, there won't be a moist southerly draw compared to today, so perhaps late teen maxima rather than low 20's but very respectable. Longer term, anticyclonic conditions more likely to hold the atlantic at bay - as is often the case in April, which is often the driest month for many, and the quietest atlantic wise. Key question will heights build to the east, or head NW, some hints the latter may occur, again very normal service for April, when northerlies and north easterlies are much more likely to affect the country. I'm always a little nervous when we have sustained well above average temps, and little rain, with lots of sunshine in early spring, recent years when such weather has occured, Apr 2007, Apr 2011 and March 2012 were followed by preety poor summers it has to be said, whereas March/April's with cold and easterlies and northerlies such as 1995, 1996, 2005, 2006 and 2013 have been followed by decent or very good summers. You can have too much of a good thing too soon... I'd far rather have current conditions and outlook in May..
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