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  1. 26 points
    their armoured vehicles are being made ready-
  2. 25 points
    It's October, so why not drag the CFS out and say hello November. Always held this model in high regard..... we can dream right... It is pretty bullish about Russia going into the freezer and parts of Eastern Europe as early as the end of October.. I'm sure we could make an anagram of bullish if we can throw a "t" in.
  3. 24 points
    I'm pretty sure the sky turning yellow is the met office trying out a new warning system after some backlash.
  4. 24 points
  5. 24 points
    Big Scandi High develops for the last few days of September. Just had a look through the archives. Scandi Highs developed during the last few days of September of the following years - 1946, 1962, 1981 & 2010. Just saying
  6. 23 points
    Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland
  7. 22 points
    I'm sure everyone is au fait with the expected weather for today so just a quick overview as this will be covered in detail in other threads. Essentially the UK can be split N/S with the eastern section remaining dry, warm and not that windy whilst to the west the expected low tracks quickly NNE across the west coast of Ireland and then NE across Scotland, filling quite rapidly as it goes, to be around the Western Isles by midnight tonight. Everyone should keep abreast of the detailed warning, particularly for Eire and N. Ireland and western coastal areas and further inland in the north later this afternoon and into the evening. Suffice it to say here that S/SW violent storm 11 is forecast for a time in the Irish Sea. According to this morning's gfs by 12 tomorrow the low will be in the North Sea west of Thurso with high pressure ridging N/NE in it's wake which becomes quite relevant during the week as it pushes the jet south and thus eastward bound troughs will tend to impact the UK Thus by Thursday midnight there is a large negatively tilted upper trough dominating the Atlantic with surface lows poised to the NW and SW of Ireland. Over the next 24 hours the latter, with it's associated fronts tracks ENE to be over eastern England bringing rain, and high winds in the south, to most areas. But it is the next low away to the south west that an eye needs to be kept on. After some very brief ridging on Friday by 18 it jas deepened and is over the south west 973mb bringing with it rain and again the distinct possibility of gales as it tracks across central England overnight. It's worth a glance here at the 500mb and jet stream charts as they illustrate the point I was attempting to make earlier. The low continues on it's journey east leaving the UK in light showery northerly on Sunday before once again there is some transient ridging before the next frontal system arrives from the west during Monday. So no great surprise but quite an unsettled period on the cards with temps varying around the norm. And I'm sure everyone will be pleased to know that Sidney is safely tucked up and sleeping like a baby.
  8. 21 points
    Ophelia has caused one of the most bizarre days of weather and skies I have seen for quite sometime.
  9. 20 points
    Amazing sat pic, not just Ophelia, but the red dust showing up in it too.
  10. 20 points
    Morning Ophelia is giving us some weather to talk about,be it wind,rain,surges,heat etc but i am liking the phenomenon with the Saharan dust turning the sun blood red took some shots of the blood red sun just now,wow you don't see that very often i can't see any sunspots
  11. 20 points
  12. 20 points
    I know it's right at the end of FI and has practically zero chance of happening but, looks like quite a potent arctic blast lining up in the GFS. Roll on winter!
  13. 18 points
    A quick look at last night's anomalies to see if we can get a handle on the outlook post next week's hiatus. In the medium term still looking unsettled, the usual N/W bias and temps around average, with a westerly upper flow and the trough to the north west remaining quite influential. But the upstream pattern is shifting with the vortex lobe retreating to Alaska with a ridge in eastern North America. In the later period no particular agreement but indications that the quite amplified upstream pattern will move east with a trough now in east N. America and height rises in the western Atlantic, the implications of which are not obvious for the UK at the moment but no obvious path to more settled weather Back to the here and now. Today remaining cloudy in many areas, more particularly in the north and west with a weak front hanging around, with patchy drizzle but where the sun does break through eastern areas could reach around 21C. Later in the day a wave forming on the front to the west tracks north east to bring rain to N. Ireland and western Scotland through tonight and tomorrow. Further south it will remain dry and becoming very warm in places with temps possible in the 25C range. Which brings us to Monday and Ophelia. Not to dwell too long on this as I'm sure it will be adequately covered elsewhere but at 12 it is south west of Ireland 958mb whilst most of the UK is still dry and basking in the unusual temps excluding N. Ireland and Scotland. It runs NNE into Scotland and then east to be absorbed by the upper trough to the NE.by Weds midnight. People need to keep abreast of updates from the various professional agencies. All of this has cleared the decks for the Atlantic to make it's move and with a strong westerly upper flow impacting the south of Britain the next deep low has arrived to the NW of Scotland with associated fronts and rain crossing the country on Wednesday.with temps returning to near average. This merely heralds the start of a period of very unsettled weather (according to the gfs of course) with shortwaves popping up in the circulation of the main low and swinging across Wales and England before the next very intense low pressure arrives on the scene 951mb over the Hebrides by Saturday with fronts crossing the UK and very severe gales to Scotland, N. Ireland and the north of England. Obviously this a long way from being definitive but the potential is around for some nasty weather. A very mixed bang with marked regional variations as can be seen with a quick glance at the rainfall distribution.
  14. 17 points
    A wintry end to October according to the Gfs 12z, synoptically great for opening the arctic floodgates / icegates and locking in an increasingly cold outbreak with strong height rises to the west / northwest..the forum will be buzzing if we see charts like these verify later this month and into early November!..whet's the appetite for the long winter ahead!
  15. 17 points
    I am actually going to phone Michael Fish tonight, before his weekly Friday Netweather broadcast and ask him if a hurricane is coming. Great Storm 30th anniversary Sun/Mon
  16. 16 points
    London & the South East will see a mini-heatwave.... Nothing to see here. (assured, if this was about to impact the capital, it would be the BBC's main story)
  17. 16 points
    Screw it. I'm heading to Manorbier Beach, I don't want to miss this one!
  18. 16 points
    Hi All, I've been a forum lurker for some time now, I've always found that this site is a mine of information, I live near a small town called Oranmore on the west coast of Ireland, its close to Galway city, I'm both looking forward to and a bit worried about Ophelia - I'll be battening down the hatches come this weekend! I've included two links to local weather stations here: http://www.galwaycityweather.com/ http://weather.nuigalway.ie/ Cheers, Dave.
  19. 16 points
    I remember as a young lad subscribing to the Met Office DWR charts during the winter of 62/63. They arrived in a long brown envelope and showed the previous days synoptics. I often look at those charts and they still blow me away. Intense Scandinavian High started to influence to UK weather just before Christmas and what was to follow was 10 weeks of record cold and snow. Some of the synoptic charts were incredible for the usual run of maritime winters for Britain. Temps below freezing for weeks on end and some of the charts showing fronts stalling across the South of Britain producing blizzards and day max of -5c with added wind chill. Once in a lifetime experience , I think, maybe 47 had greater widespread snowfall in February but started much later than the 62/63 historic freeze. Will we see the likes again? probabaly not, but never say never !
  20. 16 points
    Well like last night, I see my tone regarding some warmer weather did not go down well with everyone, so I'll try to fit in round here by reporting on tonight's charts in a more Netweather-like way: Disappointingly, this poor October looks like going on and on. The charts above show that we are stuck in mild muck, even potentially record breaking mild muck if there's a straight draw from Iberia. Unfortunately, we are faced with t-shirt weather and the endless misery of sunny days and BBQ evenings for some time. Hopefully, the fronts from the Atlantic will push the warm southerly draw quickly so we can get our umbrellas out again and put the heating on again soon.
  21. 16 points
    you used to be able to run a sequence for the last 30 days on the US National Ice Centre section the NOAA Website, but it's gone. So I've created a GIF of the last 7 days. I'll do one next week for 14 days as it should look good! Beats having 14 tabs open.
  22. 15 points
    This will probably be the only time an Express weather article doesn't exaggerate the situation.
  23. 15 points
    First hopefully of many northerly,s consistently appearing at the end of the runs now just to get it in the more reliable time frame winter hunt begins .
  24. 15 points
    Personally I have higher hopes for the coming winter snow and cold wise for lowland Britain than the last three winters. The QBO has been negative for the last 4 months and continues to drop each month deeper into -ve territory. A negative or easterly QBO is linked to a weaker PV on average during winter and thus a weaker Atlantic jet which favours more blocking and greater chances of SSWs too. We have had an unprecedented long stretch of +ve/westerly QBO over the last few years, plus strong El Nino in the middle, which has resulted in a run of mild winters for the UK. How much influence the forecast weak/mod La Nina will have on upper patterns in conjunction with -QBO - we'll have to wait to see, and be interesting if, in the Dec-Feb 500mb means, it plays similar to a composite of years with weak/moderate La Nina and moderate/strong -QBO, like the one below; We also have weakening solar activity heading towards a solar minimum in next few years, how this solar cycle interacts with the QBO is a bit beyond me as the interaction seem rather complex, from what I've read, SSW during a wQBO are less likely than in a eQBO, but when they occur, statistically more often when there's a max solar cycle. However, a solar cycle min may not have such a big influence on SSW while in a eQBO phase. Though reading further it appears a solar min/ eQBO can increase the amplitude of the MJO. All-in-all, a few cold winters more likely in next few years, whether 2017/18 will be one I can't guarantee, but certainly cautiously more optimistic it will be colder than the last 3 winters given the above
  25. 14 points
    Made me laugh... Twitter (Jason Ashford @jasonashford89) "Whatever your political view on the border, you have to be impressed by the fact that it's hurricane proof"
  26. 14 points
    So the models generally agreeing, for now, on taking ex-Ophelia north close to the west side of Ireland early next week, a close call for Ireland though, with a track further east threatening potential widespread severe gales. 00z UKMO takes this deep low NE toward western Scotland, rather than north toward Iceland like the other models, so western Scotland could come into the frame for strong winds too if this NE track were to transpire. The long track north of ex-Ophelia from south of the Azores will draw a deep warm southerly flow from southern Spain / western Med for the weekend into early next week, some high temps indicated for Monday from the 00z Netwx-MR showing 25-26C for eastern England, would surely threaten some date records. Strong jet stream next week looping N to NE across the UK could pull a few shortwaves NE that could spawn some deepening secondary lows moving NE from the Bay of Biscay. Long-way off for any certainty, but 00z ECMWF and the EC control indicates potential for such a low to move NE from Biscay across NW France and perhaps on to SE UK. All coming around the 30 year anniversary of the Great Storm of 1987 as well! Worth keeping an eye on. 00z ECMWF for mid-next week 00z ECMWF control All-in-all an interesting period of weather coming up, certainly not run-of-the-mill autumn weather, with ex-hurricane arriving from so far south and bringing unusual warmth with it too.
  27. 13 points
    Amazing, this is more like just before sunset than 1.20pm
  28. 13 points
    Looking beyond Monday, the models are now reverting back to what they were showing 48 hours ago, a marked downturn in temperatures, with heights building to the north and the jet swinging in on a more southerly track, kicking aside any attempt at azores/eurohigh ridge. It makes sense, such a deep closed low pressure to the west of Ireland will promote height rises to the north, and this is evident in both ECM and GFS output today. So after a balmy couple of days ahead for the south and east, and stormy conditions Mon-Tues in the west, its back to more typical mid-late October fayre with wind and rain from the west, perhaps the first settling snow of the season down to modest levels in the Scottish Highlands and increased risk of air frost as the week wears on. Along with the cooler air, will come cleaner and sunnier conditions to the NW as well, which will be welcomed.
  29. 13 points
  30. 13 points
    Presumably if they remake her 'storm brian' she will become the first transgender storm in history ??
  31. 13 points
    nooooooooo, I want cold, wintry, crisp weather!
  32. 13 points
    Looking back at Sept 2017 the NCEP GFS reanalysis shows the month to have been slightly cooler for Europe (-0.065C) and the UK (-0.08C) versus the long-term 1981-2010 mean. But likely of more interest is the more pronounced warmth anomaly for the Northern Hemisphere (60-90N), where for the 7th year running Sept temperatures have been above the long-term mean, this year by +1.27C. And with both GFS and ECM current output suggesting raised heights over the Pole out to 12th Oct, the pattern not supportive of a major reversal in the temp anomaly. So as the first half of the month progresses, conditions may not (yet) be ideal for any fledgling PV to start ramping up.....? ECM/GFS 500mb 8-10 day Height Anom to 12th Oct And just for fun, would the forecast pattern and charts like the GFS H500 (below) have had the OPI running well into negative territory and coldies salivating?!! GFS 0z for 16th Oct
  33. 13 points
    Snow on the way by the end of the Gfs 00z..
  34. 12 points
    London looking like it's been plucked from the banks of the Thames onto Mars looking at the twitter-feed pictures
  35. 12 points
    I hadn't took any notice of the sun until it was mentioned as I thought it was completely overcast outside. But here it is in the Peaks too, with a weird orange/red hue to it.
  36. 12 points
    I made a GIF of Ophelia from the 14th until 9pm last night.
  37. 12 points
    Pleased I've cancelled my red letter day air balloon ride across the Irish Sea on Monday. That would have been turbulent to say the least!
  38. 12 points
    Whilst many seem to be wishing (as usual) for Ophelia to intensify and track further east and having a little titter about it it's occasionally worthwhile having a ponder. In January 1968 I was on a ship anchored in the Clyde when the great Glasgow storm struck demolishing much of Glasgow and killing 30 people in the process, some in the river next to us. We were lucky not to join them as we nearly ran aground. Fast forward 15 years to 1981 and I also remember well the storm of December 1981 in these parts which resulted in the loss of the Penlee lifeboat, the Solomon Browne, and all of the crew. Just in case this generates the usual refrain "of it will happen irrespective of what we say" that is totally irrelevant to wishing/wanting the storm to impact fully the UK to the extent of hoping it will change track, which I find totally crass.
  39. 12 points
    Now there's something you don't see every day..
  40. 12 points
    Very interesting that just as with last year, we're seeing a lot of heat flux into the Arctic troposphere and with subsequent vertical wave activity flux modelled to disrupt the formation of the polar vortex. Under the new 'oceanic Arctic climate' that may well have established, this troubled vortex formation could well become the new 'normal'. Too early to be sure about that climatic shift though; a few years prior to last started off about as balmy in the Arctic but then dropped nearer to typical temperature setups. If the weather patterns continue to bring a lot of heat poleward and then upward through to late autumn then it will be time to start wondering just what might transpire given that last year some promising developments were scuppered primarily by an exceptionally strong westerly QBO (and perhaps a bit of solar forcing) which allowed the vortex to exploit a relatively brief lull in wave activity forcing to spin up furiously and achieve a state capable of taking on a lot of warming events with barely a wobble. Given shortfalls in handling poleward heat flux into the Arctic, I don't expect the models to do very well at spotting whether we will have a disheveled vortex as we start the winter. Lots of waiting and seeing to come. I will occasionally comment but will have to be far more restrained than last winter due to work commitments. 7 winters now without satisfactory duration and/or intensity of cold & snowy weather here in S. England. Here's hoping for an overdue change of fortunes!
  41. 12 points
    I don't often post in the mod thread unless there is something truly interesting on offer, but am an avid follower and just wanted to thank those who have continued posting their assessments even through quieter periods, especially Knocker in recent weeks. Do keep this up even when the silly season gets going! Re models, it looks like another scenario of settling down in the first week of October. That'll be the third in a row that high pressure moves in, last year in particular. Perhaps some lovely sunny days to bring out the autumn colours so long as the high migrates sufficiently north. It's longevity beyond a week though still looks questionable.
  42. 12 points
    love that image, really tough shift at NHC with all the data from MAria and a bit of a coffee break, to peruse the Netwx hurricane thread to make sure they are keeping it real. HELLO!! HELLO NHC . Loving your work
  43. 11 points
    I'm here in Cork, travelled for the storm. Safe to say, Its very eerie. We've been advised not go out after 9am. Will try and get some good videos from the hotel window.
  44. 11 points
    In spite of the terminology police, I think we're safe to say - a proper hurricane is heading towards Ireland and the UK.
  45. 11 points
  46. 11 points
  47. 11 points
    Any more spamming or trolling of this thread will be removed ... so be warned. Let's keep discussion civil and sensibly reasoned plz, this is not the place for trashing well known science with climate change as an excuse.
  48. 11 points
    Sidney and the gang are not busy storing nuts so one of the main teleconnections is looking favorable for some pleasant warm zephyrs from the south west
  49. 11 points
    The first Mention of a bartlett High this season. awaiting the mention of the 6z and 18z having missing data. the wheeling out of the Bom when thinks get hairy and the old quote that the met office hold the JMA in high regard. yep its nearly winter.
  50. 11 points
    The models are certainly not without interest at the moment, not least the question of the block and the UK weather in the medium term that is exercising a few minds. A quick resume of the salient points of the predicted pattern from last night’s anomalies. Low pressure over the Arctic with an associated negatively tilted trough NW of the UK via N. Canada/ Greenland and strong high pressure centred to the NE of the UK ridging into the eastern Arctic. It is the precise orientation of the HP/trough axis which basically decides the effectiveness of the block vis the UK. At the same low pressure persist to the south east and a very slack pressure gradient to the south. Thus we have a strong westerly upper flow in mid Atlantic which will drive troughs east but it abates to the west of the UK and splits with a section backing SW/S and thus swinging the troughs north east/ north. The $64.000 question is how far east will the systems track and impact the UK. The question will of course be answered in due course by the det runs There is no fundamental change of the pattern in the ext period although the axis is further east thus possibly unsettled weather for the whole of the UK with overall temps no great shakes and a little below average. Today will start off fine in most places but rain will quickly move into N. Ireland and SW Scotland and this will gradually effect most other areas during the day except the south east.Mainly dry over the weekend with perhaps some light rain in places and variable;e amounts of cloud. The front lying to the west on Sunday eventually clears and becomes a non feature by Monday and for the next couple of days the UK is in a col with a very slack pressure gradient to the south so with no wind not unpleasant. But by midweek troughs dominate the Atlantic and a low 967mb is west of Ireland with associated front over western Ireland. But the aforementioned block kicks in and the low slowly tracks north then NW and the front struggles to make much progress east in the next 24 hours, weakening as it go until eventually arriving in the North Sea by Friday.as another frontal system arrives over Ireland. This quickly clears east and now the fun begins in earnest as the next quite intense low tracks further south and impacts the UK overnight on Saturday bringing much rain and gales before moving south east into the southern North Sea. I'm wondering why it is taking this route and not turning north and it would appear that it has found a conduit to the low pressure in the south east.with the Azores ridging to the west. Be interesting to see what the ecm makes of this. Also note Maria has arrived in the west 951MB but is taking a more conventional route. In summation pretty much a west/east split next week with most of the rain in western and northern areas although this might become more general as the week progresses.
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