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Showing content with the highest reputation since 21/01/19 in all areas

  1. 72 points
    Feel I have an apology to make. If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed up (partly due to the way this thread was going and for other reasons). Regardless, I shouldn’t have taken out my frustrations on here by vaporising this thread and leaving people feeling confused and worried as to what happened. It wasn’t fair and I didn’t let any members of my team know what I did. Nor anyone on here. I’m sorry for behaving that way and wouldn’t blame anyone for being annoyed. Not really a great example for a mod/host to set. While I appreciate some of the damage I likely caused (even though some will probably look back on the mysteriousness of the missing thread and laugh), I will make sure it doesn’t happen again. After all, this thread is meant to be a laid back and fun place for you guys to chat about the models, and would hate to ruin that mood. Could have chosen not to have said anything at all, but feel you guys deserved to know the truth!
  2. 60 points
    The warmer air creeping east today with the font And to digress for a moment. I was in a taxi just now and the driver started wittering on about how he loved cold weather. I thought, 'the bloody nutters are every where', as i deleted the taxi firm from my contacts.
  3. 51 points
    Yawn, another non-ice-age type run and the same people acting in the same childish way again. It'd be a shame to stop people posting in here, but the petulant kids act and the petty bickering really needs to stop, it's tiresome.
  4. 51 points
    Afternoon All- Im really suprised that noone has picked up on the UKMO 144- Heights to the NE & a diving jet usually spells Easterly ( around 168 )
  5. 47 points
    Look mummy! We can see the south side of the M4!
  6. 44 points
    To be fair @DiagonalRedLine that is not model related could I kindly ask you to post in the appropriate thread in future. If not it may be removed, or we will be forced to remove your posting privileges many thanks banter team
  7. 42 points
    Let's hope this isn't the winning photo of Winter 2019!
  8. 42 points
    🗣️ I've just heard we're going back in. Last time they told us it would be easy, that there would be little opposition to the advance West, but they had forces waiting for us. We took casualties, lost some good people, but now we are ready and their forces depleted. Strap in boys and girls, it s time for some payback. 🐻
  9. 41 points
    Now I have more time I shall give you some examples of why im delighted with the output. I shall also explain why the models were wrong at +72 to +96 and how they have changed for the better. First of all the low below is now heading SE. A few days ago the models did the usual of being reluctant to send this SE. This is a typical bias of the models when a low pressure comes up against a high pressure in this locality. The presence of this high pressure is important further along. The next low is the trigger because this is also heading SE. As it does so pressure rises to our N and is reinforced by the high pressure to our NE. The end result is more of a NE,ly than E,ly at this stage and it depends how far S the low goes. The SLP ensembles for Iceland/Oslo say it all really compared to a few days ago. Only a few days ago the Iceland SLP mean was only 1008mb and now stands 1022mb and is likely to become 1030mb. The drop on the 29th is when the low pressure moves SE. Oslo SLP is even more impressive increasing to 1030mb with solid agreement except GEFS control at the end. Only caution I would advise is whether the GFS is over doing the blocking and if the low does not head far enough SE. At this stage im not concerned. All of this is backed with the Cambs ensembles at -7C!
  10. 39 points
    And finally... finished reading and there’s a hour of my life I’m never getting back All for a bit of light heartedness thrown in but honestly, the quality of the postings today are the worst I’ve seen on a model related thread. Some people only seem to log on so they can post i.e. “Hi peeps. Are the charts showing potential yet? lol top banta” and “Ha ha 10 days blah blah, background signals sly dig” etc etc. All getting very cringeworthy and dull. And yes, the irony of my non model related comments above are not lost on me. Anyway, all I see is another decent day of chart output and great prospects heading into February. Cold and snow chances incoming. May not come to fruition of course but I am enjoying the current output nevertheless. Got to be in it to win it.
  11. 37 points
    Ha - I'm on a sequential posting roll..... How close is this to lighting the fuse?
  12. 36 points
    Next Wednesday: Just off the hard shoulder on westbound M4: Just off the hard shoulder on eastbound M4:
  13. 36 points
    The charts look good again for more snow after a brief mild blip tomorrow up here in the Highlands, where we have had snow cover for the last 9 days now..
  14. 36 points
    Uppers are marginal 🤔😍
  15. 36 points
    See my previous posts because the 12Z GEM is exactly what I have been referring to. Brace yourselves as we're about to set off on the rollercoaster again!
  16. 35 points
    The thing is with all these sliders, is that they change slightly from run to run. Normally that wouldn’t be a problem but in this case it is critical. For instance in the last 2 days I think I have seen every variety of solution for down here in West Sussex for the forecast Sat night to Monday morning. Heavy snow, light snow, back edge snow, sleet, rain, dry slots, warm slots all in the mix. So the speed of slide, direction of slider, how far east the slider travels, whether secondary lows develop all will influence the 850 temp boundary. And that is just Sunday’s slider with others following on, So, for me looking at any slider 850 temps and precipitation is most definitely out of a curiosity fun, but no way will I put any faith in any individual set up ( besides the slider pattern) until it is right upon us.
  17. 35 points
    I propose a vote of no confidence! We need a new Moderator to lead us into Snexit
  18. 35 points
    Because its alligned to the UKModel + EPS mean- so the 3 together is a fair fit. If the GFS was the only model showing cold then I wouldnt be adding much weight to a comment- I only take note of GFS when the 3 are in sync - What the GFS does is allow us to put a little more detail on the picture with the high res charts at 96 ( as long as they are very close to the UKMO chart ) & the Operational & mean are showing another rain to snow event for the UK sat eve - Then post this the 'opportunity' of more substantial cold again backed up by the EPS members - thanks
  19. 35 points
    Just to elaborate on my previous post that evidence is gathering for a true Arctic outbreak. As we know there are two major spoilers in the current set up. The Azores high ridging across the UK and cutting off any Arctic flow and when we get that ridging at more favourable latitudes Atlantic energy flattening the pattern. There are strong indications within the output that the Azores high will be displaced further West and play less of a spoiler role and that the pattern will become conducive for stronger blocking though there may still be more of an Atlantic influence than some would like. However if correct there will be deeper and longer lasting cold air in place so looks like an ideal set up for some heavy snowfall in early Feb or even sooner if we get lucky. If it all implodes again then this message will self delete.
  20. 35 points
    Yes he is not keen on the snow... 🤣
  21. 34 points
    I presume that was before they built the M4 - nothing to repel the cold.
  22. 34 points
    What we need to see is exactly what you are seeing here, though by pacific trough I'll translate that as Aleutian low. We need the pattern to retrogress to pull the power out of the Canadian lobe, and that means seeing the return of the Aleutian low as the next pacific wave initiates and tries, once again, to throw the atlantic ridge up and over the top of the jet. MJO phase 7 at this stage of winter ties in with an Aleutian low signal. We all know this is painful watching at the moment - but at some point this westerly momentum bubble is going to burst. Better minds than mine are arguing that the problems we have had in the last week or so have been initiated by destructive increase by easterly trades at the pacific equator, interfering with momentum distribution as expected in a Nino year and allowing westerly momentum to remain higher than expected at high lats. Images of the mid atlantic high constantly trying to ridge north but being forced back by the strength of the flow from Canada match this concept exactly. But this interference is expected to wane over the next week. Taking that perhaps as a given (accepting, of course, that it is simply another element of a global forecast that could yet go "wrong") we can continue to expect the start of February to bring increasingly good prospects for the block/trough combination we are hunting. Destructive interference in expected signals is a topic that deserves a thread all of its own probably - and I'll admit right here and now that there are aspects to it that I find really tough to grasp - but if we can get shot of it in the coming days and find our way back to a constructive pattern that aligns the signals properly and, consequently, allows the slow downwell to impact more effectively then let's wish it speedy and healthy progress! Finally - taking the science out of it for a minute and reducing it all to chaos and "luck" - we've had a US storm get in the way, and now an issue with increased pacific tradaes. 2 bits of bad "luck." Surely we cant have a third - it HAS to be third time lucky?? Whether you want to go down this route - or are prepared to engage in the complex scientific debate - the outlook looks to be positive!!
  23. 34 points
    Dont shoot the messenger! Do you want me add disclaimers to the arrows... 😞
  24. 33 points
    A great wintry 06z run with copious opportunities of snow- & crucially again the first bout of cold arrives in 3-4 days... Whats crititcal here for those marginal situations is - The initial flow of cold is this time more 'Northerly' as opposed to the current North Westerly - This brings 2 important components- lower dewpoints & 850s circa -8c which are both superior to the current modified NW airmass- - We also see the main trough drop further to the East than the last cold spell, this will tend to enhance shower potential from the NE- - Finally the 'wedge' of high pressure alligned to the NW around 180 'could' be sufficient enough to steer the canadian vortex south into the atlantic.... Very good signs today!
  25. 33 points
    Glosea and ecm blocking from yesterday was pretty impressive. Looks like sliders until early feb then blocking potential begins..... Having read this thread I don’t know why there is such negativity about the ECM op. I reckon with a bit of lateral thinking then it oozes potential. The eps just confirms that lateral thinking. I wouldn’t quite put the snow shovels back in the loft yet.....
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