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Showing content with the highest reputation since 15/05/21 in all areas

  1. Funnel spotted!! Just spotted by me 10 mins ago from South Bristol. Had to use my phone to snap some pictures! It was from a cell north east to me. This is a first time for me!
    34 points
  2. Bom dia - saudação feliz do ensolarado Portugal🌞🙂 Timing of such change for the better proved highly concordant with the official curtain raiser to summer, and just as I was preparing to leave the UK this week. Sitting looking out over palm, citrus, loquat and olives trees, and the rows of vines shimmering in the sun and heat of the day, its also nice to take up (for now) a very brief perspective of the way forward for the first phase of summer. As outlined in previous posts, it been a classic situation where seasonal wavelength changes and rising momentum create poleward fluxing of
    29 points
  3. It doesnt matter about heat, how hot is is isnt a true reflection of the summer. All model outputs are suggesting a lot of high pressure domination, with a lot of dry sunny/fine weather with respectable temps if not above average temps. For early/mid June that is simply WONDERFUL! It sounds good to me! and my favoured anomaly charts support this very good outlook.
    28 points
  4. Just moving things on folks. But to be clear, this is a forum for weather enthusiasts. Guilt tripping for enjoying weather isn't welcome here. If you can't handle others enjoying interesting weather then perhaps this isn't the forum for you.
    27 points
  5. 24 - 27c is really really disappointing?? We live in the UK not the med. To illustrate, Rome is forecast 27c for the next 2 days. The models might have trended away from what they were showing but 24 - 27 is still well above average for the UK.
    23 points
  6. Words fail me!... 😯..some of you will be pleased about that! 😉...just to add though, this shows great continuity from the ECM 0z op!...roll on summer!.. 564 dam, plumes, hot sun, that wonderful calm before the thunderstorm..those lazy hazy crazy days of summer, mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun..ok that’s enough frosty..I thought you said words fail you!!..jeez...😉 ☀️ 🥵 ⛈ 🍦 🏝 😎 🐿 is that enough charts?...I like feedback 😉 Please tell me if I need to curb my enthusiasm? 😉
    23 points
  7. Nothing much changes..I see some are already looking for the breakdown before the fine spell even starts! I thought that was only a winter mentality 🤣 Let's remember where we have just come from,only a couple weeks back it was unseasonably cool!! So try not to get to dissatisfied if 30c is not breached in the next week. UKMO looking peachy for the next 6 days..we can't grumble,conditions are glorious for many out there today. Be Sun aware and safe folks..dont smother yourself in carrot oil like me,its a major wasp attractor 🤣
    22 points
  8. Hi all this is my first post on here and my first ever view of a funnel , but I think this is the same funnel spotted by Bristol aviation from my location in Yate 😁
    22 points
  9. Hot off the press, and by popular demand, we now have a selection of charts from the UKV available freely on Netweather. You can view the charts from 8 runs per day here: UKV Model Viewer | Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Netweather Extra subscribers can also use this link to access the full range of charts 🙂
    21 points
  10. At First glance this looks like your typical Spanish plume scenario. What we tend to see from these is that as we get closer, the forecasting takes the storms eastwards often with the result that you get a Kent clipper. These give a splendid light show out to sea for the South East. There are plumes that destabilize over the UK during the daytime with elevated storms which late on give a lightning show but very little rain as it evaporates before reaching the ground. Occasionally you will get storms over the continent which are surface based and drift North over the UK overnight which gives a
    20 points
  11. Morning all Number of good posts above by @mb018538 UKV Friday 15:00 Saturday 15:00 Sunday UKMO 850hPa 12:00 - maximum (estimated) 28/29C? Monday UKMO 850hPa 12:00 - maximum (estimated) 28/29C? You can also see the rain starting to sneak into NW/W/SW parts (more widespread for Scotland, Ireland and Northern Ireland) of the UK and Ireland - track/detail on that…subject to change at this timeframe. Marco (Media Advisor & Senior Operational Meteorologist with UK Met Office) sums it up nicely for the weekend. (Thi
    20 points
  12. Let's get 20C this year before we start talking about 40C.
    20 points
  13. HELLOOO my fellow weather enthusiast's ☺️ not posted in a good while but what a stunning day it has been with a BBQ on the go this evening,....splendid☺️ now i hope there is more of the same and looking at the latest anomalies,...i think so what a complete switch around compared to what we have had to endure through spring,...SUMMER looks to be looking up,...at last enjoy guys😏 Edit:just seen @mushymanrob's post above,Great minds☺️
    19 points
  14. Significant that there is increasing confidence in the tropics staying alight as Spring wavelengths switch into Summer..... Tropical convection modelling is teeing up another substantial MJO event to coincide with this cusp period and that bodes in favour for substantive tropical> extra tropical torque inertia to boost burgeoning sub tropical ridging building to the south. As soon as the coming week, my newly adopted home country is showing 'summer proper' establishing with pronounced Azores ridging. This coincides nicely for holidaymakers, but also for the likes of me who is not
    19 points
  15. I'd like to make a short notice. PJB's post in UKWW "After a dry and settled start to the week, Models are trending towards change in the synoptic type through the 2nd half of next week. Models are in good agreement that a building low to mid level ridge will develop over the North Sea and into the near continent early next week. At the same time a fairly sharp longwave trough is likely to extend down into the Atlantic and move east towards the British Isles. Models have trended towards a slower advance or progression of this longwave trough into the UK and as it approaches Western
    18 points
  16. Heatwave conditions on the ECM 00Z, especially for the southern half. Temperatures getting close to 30C next weekend, and staying there until well into the following week. 🔥🔥🔥🏖️🏖️🏖️
    18 points
  17. Well, I don't even know what just happened. That was COMPLETELY unexpected. Stacked:
    18 points
  18. ECM ensembles, here’s the mean, and where’s the jet stream going? T240: Spread: It is all going north, and will be for a while, which leaves us in the UK to enjoy nice settled summer weather.
    18 points
  19. ECM T240 heat fest incoming: That red porpoise of heat is poised 🌞 Incidentally, my iPad has determined that given any empty text box, my most likely 3 words I’m likely to enter are: ‘I’ ‘Yes’ and ‘ECM’. That is a bit worrying!
    18 points
  20. One of the Italian channels shown in Austria has a weather presenter dressed in military air force uniform ( wearing medals, stripes and big cap ). He presents his forecast which shows graphics with the aid of a big stick. So , pay attention ! Not having understood a word he said, he seemed to be talking about the big heat developing over North Africa and was indicating the transfer NW into much of Europe and the UK by day 10. Read what you may into that but his modeling was showing that ! C
    18 points
  21. Morning all! Feels and smells like Summer out there - expecting 21C here today! Lovely warm late afternoon/evening last night - sunset was decent also. Temperatures have not been bad at all over the last couple of days. Friday maximum was up in the Highlands. Yesterday maximum was SW England. Can we top the highest temperature of Spring so far tomorrow? (24.5C) We have a good chance! 15:00 Tuesday 15:00 - warming up even more. (25/26C) Wednesday 12:00 - warming up even more! (26/27C) Risk o
    18 points
  22. So many GEFS 12z perturbations now show high pressure becoming the major feature I can’t post them all.... 😉...anyway, the mean is looking better and better, hopefully the anticyclone, when it does arrive, will become centred either over or just to the east of the u k to promote a faster warm up but really, just the thought of high pressure at all following such a trough dominated period is good enough for me! ☀️...summer is coming! 😸
    18 points
  23. Decent Shelf cloud over Gravesend, Kent Saturday night, no lightning, associated gusts or even rain, just a silent shelf. Still kicking myself for not following my gut feeling and walking to the top of the hill where I live so I would've got some great structure earlier, but took this out my window so easiest chase ever, just had to walk upstairs! 😄
    18 points
  24. Evening all Hope everyone is well. Barely looked at any model run for days - weather has been fantastic! Low 20’s and plenty of sunshine. Today…not so much warmth/sunshine. 😄 Latest EC46. (Just looking up to 28/06) Weekly mean 500 hPa, temperature and rainfall anomalies. 07/06 to 14/06 - temperatures well above average and drier than average. Proper Summer charts. 😎 14/06 to 21/06 - Temperatures still above average for most! Average for parts of NW Scotland and parts of NE/E/SE England. Risk of something more unsettled as we go through this week
    17 points
  25. ECM mean and spread T240: BANK!!
    17 points
  26. ECM T192, march of the Azores ridge unstoppable: Heat poised more favourably:
    17 points
  27. The extended mean amplification continues to show and is now in the day ten area. Currently looking to be in our vicinity of longitude or possibly just east. Keeping it away from the Atlantic sector will maintain the warmth though potentially pushing the western side of the country into a riskier region ref frontal incursions all in all a far more seasonal outlook than we’ve seen for some considerable time with both temps and weather types being what they should be!
    17 points
  28. People keep going on about a breakdown but I can't see evidence of much of one at all- we never get into heatwave territory anyway before midweek. Looks like one cooler day to me potentially on Friday (ignoring the GFS 00Z) and then warming back up to slightly above average for the weekend onwards. The great thing about this spell is that it's finally pushing that cool air that has lingered for so long well beyond the Arctic Circle.
    17 points
  29. 17 points
  30. Thundery sunset currently over Dorset this evening 👌
    17 points
  31. Yes its moaning and inaccurate. You posted one chart showing a predicted cool day... that doesnt mean the whole of the second half of June is "dire" ... but maybe youve not been around long enough to have experienced a truely "dire" June .
    16 points
  32. Been saying this for the last 5-10 years, something fundamental has changed with the UK Storm Distribution with the rise in temperatures since the 2010 to 2021 Period. The SE is now almost barren for Thunderstorms as its nearly always too hot and the atmosphere capped, the North, North East, North West and Midlands are now the places to be for Thunderstorms and Supercells in the Uk. As the other poster said earlier Orographic forcing coming into play makes it like the USA equivalent of the High Plains. Lincolnshire will always do well still being east of the Midlands storms which have a longer
    16 points
  33. A lot of the attention will be focused on this week, and rightly so as it will be summery, a real tonic following all the dross in recent weeks...BUT...looking even further ahead, the GEFS 12z mean looks really good for a continuation of summery weather...there are some fantastic perturbations as you would expect with such a good looking mean!...anyway, fingers crossed for a cracking June..and summer! 🤞 👍 ☀️ 🥵 ⛈ 🏝 😎 🍦
    16 points
  34. GEM also says ah go on then....I’ll go for a BBQ Tuesday as well 🔥 😎
    16 points
  35. I think the takeaway message from the 12z runs is don’t look beyond the reliable. Models verify less well in summer than winter anyway in the NH. I know this is not always clear when things get tight regarding snow in the winter, but it is nonetheless true. So looking at T144, we have this: I’ll take that, bask in the sun in the afternoon, and then look at the models to see what comes next…
    16 points
  36. Hi gang ,i am around lurking and feeling good .Its always good to catch up with all your posts , i must admit i hate the cool weather this time of year .Looking at the charts well 10 days ahead as we do , i would guess high pressure dominated ,and could be heading warm at last .I've been on a bit of a diet lately ,but still have a treat of a Sausage Bap with brown sauce , if the sun shines enough to bring out the BBQ i have Belly of Pork nice n crispy with Branston . Brilliant Forum guys ,best in the World for us weather enthusiasts, all take care ,and please be carefull ,cheers 🍻 of course
    16 points
  37. Stunning cumulonimbus at sunset over Northamptonshire this evening.⛈🌄😍
    16 points
  38. Are we finally heading towards a drier, perhaps even warmer spell of weather? We’ve had a number of false dawns in the modelling, especially in the day 8+ range wherein recently the modelling has been utterly abysmal... Here’s last Friday’s ECM effort at 192 A major ridge building in the wake of this week’s low Now today’s 120 The ridge merely a stopgap before the next major unseasonable low barrels in. The GEFS as ever, have been particularly guilty of signposting a U.K. high when In reality the true signal was a U.K low. So how can we trust that t
    16 points
  39. Monday7 june updates using the 500 mb anomaly charts Ec and it shows almost nil ridging with a fairly flat atlantic flow into the ukon into Europe and then the trough in the far e med Noaa 6-10 keep the ridge with a centre over s’ern englnad/n france along with a +ve height in the same area, 120 dm and the contour flow s of w into n’ern Scotland. The 8-14 does away with the ridge idea and has a fairly straightforward atlantic flow into the uk, so perhaps signalling the end of the ridge conditions for the se’er n half of the uk in the 8-14 day outlook? So weather wise a week of r
    15 points
  40. The ECM 0z ensemble mean looks absolutely superb later in the run, it seems as though the Azores high is falling in love with the u k?! ❤️ ☀️...not a bad op either! 😉
    15 points
  41. Personally, it’s been a nightmare day, my dads fallen over twice as he’s so frail...but, the ECM 12z ensemble mean shows a very strong recovery later and by T+240 hours is MAGNIFICENT! ☀️🥵 🐿
    15 points
  42. It's all looking good folks for the foreseeable future (up to two weeks maybe) for some much needed summery weather and as i posted yesterday the anomalies are looking rock solid for high pressure to be sat near to or over the UK,placements of the hp cell will be key as to whether we get wall to wall sunshine,...NE/E or SE would be more favorable for most if not all of us to enjoy the summery spell... the gefs pressure and 850 temps are non too shabby either,we may have a cool-er blip towards the end of the week into the weekend but bouncing back to warm as we go into next wee
    15 points
  43. The 18Z GFS is showing an abundance of HP all over northern Europe and long may it continue. Welcome to meteorological Summer everyone 💥🌞🍺
    15 points
  44. 36 pages since my last post!! Come on guys get your act together 🤣 I think you've covered all bases folks,not much for me to add...what I will say is this doesn't suprise me..ive felt for several weeks that things would improve by the end of May! That poor most of May will not have any impact on how summertime starts. I'm now thinking the Azores High will be close enough to impact our conditions over the next few weeks! There may well be some occasional break downs,but overall the longer term pattern looks much more encouraging. Now get out there and slap the olive oil on...you deser
    15 points
  45. Holy Cow!...the GEFS 6z mean looks quite ridgy!..there’s even scope for a heatwave..no joke..there’s some stonking ensembles!!!...you may say I’m a dreamer..but I’m not the only one...John Lennon..R.I.P.. 😞
    15 points
  46. Can't believe people are looking for a breakdown already, I know it's the model output thread but we've just endured a terrible MONTH of temperatures and then when we finally get what we've wanted, people are already looking for the breakdown of it rather then keeping with the positivity of what we've been wanting for the pasts few months.🤔
    15 points
  47. Hi gang ,im sat outside viewing an incredible Solar Halo , im hoping this is a sign that the weather gods are saying ,Summer is on its way .charts are looking good with summery weather conditions on the horizon, think I'll pop the bbq on this evening for yes you guessed it ,Sausage baps and belly of pork plus Stellas ,cheers gang .
    15 points
  48. Steady....... Here comes the sun....little darling...its alright... About bl#%# time......
    15 points
  49. Looking to the West in Hertford Hertfordshire. Picture taken 20 minutes ago. Lots of heavy rain with little hailstones and breezy. No thunder and lightening.
    15 points
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