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  1. 21 points
    No clever ensemble picking from me today, just straightforward advice for anyone thinking of a last-minute UK holiday in the next 10 days. For those unfamiliar with these charts, think blue = drizzle/short showers, light green = moderate rain, darker green + anything else = big umbrella needed. Tomorrow: Rain Thursday: Rain Friday: Rain (particularly in the west, south+east coasts might miss it) Saturday: Rain (Scotland gets it later) Sunday: Rain Monday: Rain Tuesday: Rain Wednesday: Rain Thursday: Rain Friday: Noah's ark recalled into service
  2. 21 points
    Goodness me..... My photo made it onto the BBC 10 o'clock news weather watcher slot! Well chuffed.
  3. 17 points
    Sorry but couldn't resist. First snow of the season appears on the GFS 6hz!
  4. 15 points
    Just when I thought it was over, I decided to chase back into Lincolnshire to intercept the cells now crossing into N Norfolk. Saw a few lightning strikes in the CB, biblical rain and this impressive shelf cloud!!
  5. 15 points
    Hearing some rumbles coming out of this.
  6. 14 points
    Hi all. Interesting clouds around all afternoon here on the East coast but only distant thunder heard out to sea where the sky was very dark. Looking towards Grimsby looks interesting at the moment though. Plus a pic from a few hours ago of something trying to form.... Regards Glenn
  7. 12 points
    Morning all - Proof this morning that a good looking chart does not guarantee good weather - who would have thought so much cloud and drizzle/rain would come from this? On to the Bank Holiday debacle. The very firm split remains this morning, except that the ECM has moved part-way towards the GFS, leaving the GEM/UKMO to campaign for a more settled outcome alone: The fact the UKMO is consistently promoting such a chart is encouraging, seeing as it is often quite good when dealing with the cut-off low to the SW. The ensembles are of little help. Both last night's and this morning's ECM ensembles are very mixed: Some encouragement in that the most UKMO-like cluster has grown overnight (from cluster 5 to cluster 1), and the most horrible clusters have reduced in size and number. Added that last night's ECM op being in a completely different cluster to this morning's ECM op, and given the general GFS/UKMO stand-off, there really isn't enough information available to call the bank holiday yet at all. Let's hope for more of a coming together on the 12Z runs. A little sightly further ahead, and it's pretty clear that a deep trough is going to form. The question is how much of the UK it will affect by the middle of next week. The ECM ensembles leaves its options open: while the GEFS looks far less settled, and does not have a cluster with heights to the east:
  8. 12 points
    Tropical Tidbits has a useful feature for looking at the Atlantic basin - you can go back three days on the model and thus see where this low has genesis. The energy is generated from the remnants of tropical storm Emily and a train of little tropical waves that are circulating round the high. Emily over Florida on first of August. Then follow the run and see the development. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2017080300&fh=-48&xpos=0&ypos=114
  9. 12 points
    anybody know if its possible at all to look back on the radar anywhere from yesterday afternoon? Funnel cloud over sea by Cromer at 5:30pm-ish and it'd be nice to see what it looked like on radar
  10. 11 points
    Over reaction? Its been another poor summer up here im afraid and patience is wearing a bit thin now..im not entirely sure what people dying in Europe has got to do with my post, It goes without saying nobody wants people to die from the weather,,in any shape or form but the truth is be it in summer (heat)or winter (cold) , people do lose their lives.. Back to the models and ECM has joined in with making more of the Atlantic - at this rate it will be Sept before we get stable spell of high pressure! In fairness the south looks ok next week away from the relentless troughs/dross that has plauged the north sice,late June..
  11. 11 points
    There is reasonable agreement between last evening's 6-10 anomalies and, given that recent det. runs are tending to support the analysis, confidence is reasonable high that something along these lines will pan out. Thus we have low pressure over the Arctic with the main trough negatively tilted SE over Scandinavia with weaker but quite important other trough running down the Straits of Labrador, This is in accord with the earlier amplification in the west/central Atlantic that has moved east with the Azores now ridging just to the west of the UK. Thus the surface high becoming more influential from mid week bringing with it more settled and drier conditions for most. Scotland may well be the exception. The $64,000 question concerns the longevity of the HP influence And this remains to be sorted but current indications are not long. In the ext period the whole shebang continues to move east and thus the aforementioned Labrador trough is now in the central Atlantic with the ridge gradually shifting to the SE of the UK This initially would not be bad news with the upper flow backing a tad south of west with temps nudging above average, particularly in the south for a while, but not in the long run as the trough takes closer order to the west. At this stage not a done deal by any means Cannot post the EPS which illustrates this better, So what of this morning's gfs? The current low pressure area moves away east and after some brief ridging over the weekend the next low is west of the Hebrides by 00z Monday with the associated fronts lying across the west of the country. Again though we are posed with the problem of how long will this low sticks around and this morning the answer according to the gfs is about three days as the high pressure amplifies to the west and east and once more deconstructing the upper trough. Thus a cool and showery (not too many) start to the beginning of the week as the surface wind veers northerly. From Thursday the Azores ridges NE and the battle resumes between the trough(s) approaching from the NW and suppressing the ridge and the Azores surging north in the Atlantic and disrupting the jet and the supply line so the end of the week becoming more settled and perhaps warmer by the weekend. Best left there
  12. 10 points
    Last night's anomalies indicated no significant changes in the 14 day period so further comment this morning is superfluous.Nearer to the here and now and the next couple of days is of much more interest with thundery lows and frontal systems around that could well lead to some bursts of significant rainfall in some areas, particular in the east and south as storms track NE (although not confined to here). Thus there is a danger of flash floods if you happen to cop a torrential downpour in a vulnerable area. I suppose the first thing to note about this morning's gfs is that next week it is busy promoting the strong North American ridge into a Greenland high and a negatively tilted trough across the Atlantic which, as it is strongly at odds with the anomalies, for the moment must be taken with a large pinch of salt. Anyway Thursday the current low has finally exited stage right and a transient ridge is the order of the day on so probably the best day of the week which won't be difficult. Transient because the next trough has tracked east to be NNE of Scotland by 00z saturday with the associated fronts traversing the country on Friday and thus another wet day. This then clears and the ridge reenters the fray leading to not a bad weekend by recent standards with showers becoming less frequent and probably confined to the north and west.Temps around average but with light winds it will be quite pleasant in the sunny periods. But by Monday the next shallow low has arrived from the NW with the fronts down the Irish Sea about to cross the country bringing more showery rain. From here a high cell slips over the UK by midweek but the aforementioned Greenland high/Atlantic trough, note where the jet is, becomes evident which promises all sorts of surface shenanigans, not least another thunder low from the south. Best noted and ignored for the moment So remaining unsettled but how much rather depends on your location. EDIT This morning's GEFs anomaly does not support the Greenland high scenario.
  13. 10 points
    Last night's anomalies, although not in complete agreement, do not show any significant change from the previous outlooks for the next fourteen days. Having said that it's these differences and how the det runs tackle the detail that will affect how the our weather finishes up. Next week sees the amplified ripple that initially brings down some inclement weather over us move east and the Azores HP becoming more influential, particularly in the south and thus a drier, quieter interlude. But all the time it is losing amplitude and thus the pattern for the 10-15 period evolves which essentially has low pressure over the Arctic with associated trough south over Iceland and thus a more zonal westerly upper flow across the Atlantic Thus we have the cooler air to the north west and the warmer to the south west and is precisely how the interaction between the two is resolved which will determine which will be the more influential in the probable N/S split over the UK. At the moment the EPS (which I can't post) which is the more bullish with the trough(s) cooler air but hopefully the Azores will hang on in there. After a not too bad weekend, albeit not that warm, with showers becoming less frequent the expected surge of the Azores HP to the west proceeds with the upper trough tracking SE to be over the the UK by 12z Monday with surface fronts tracking south east so a period of more concentrated rain for a while. Not quite the elaborate and extreme solution of yesterday evening. The low pressure area then moves east and eventually get's it's act together over southern Norway the process of which veers the wind northerly over the UK which could bring plentiful showers over the eastern half. But this also allows the high pressure to ridge in from the south west And this is where the previously mentioned battle and interaction of the cooler/warmer air begins in earnest with the energy/trough to the north west suppressing the HP and impacting the north west by Friday. Not that keen on looking too far ahead on individual runs in these fluid patterns particularly without cross model support.
  14. 10 points
    Last night's anomalies do not fill one with high expectations for settled and warmer weather over the next 14 days albeit some improvement from the current dross as we move forward. The indications are, from all three, that once we get rid of the expected transient amplification next week and the Azores briefly becoming more influential over the UK a more zonal upper flow will be the order of the day. We are still looking at low pressure over the Arctic spreading to some extent south over Greenland/Iceland and thus no appreciable movement north of the Azores high. This would tend to indicate a continuation of unsettled weather but the waxing and waning of the Azores which tends to occur in these type of patterns is liable to influence the south of the UK far more than the north so looking like the classic N.S split. The caveat as ever with this is of course that the det runs will need to sort the detail on how this will actually pan out but at this stage, and obviously at this range things can alter quite quickly, no sustainable warm spell before the middle of August is on the cards The EPS 10-15 is not significantly different to the GEFS. Everyone is familiar with the forecast over the next three days so suffice it to say the depression dictating this tracks steadily ENE and by 12z Saturday the Azores is weakly ridging NE thus a much quieter weekend in store with showers becoming more isolated albeit the temps no great shakes, around average or a little below. But by 18z on Sunday the next upper trough has nipped around the burgeoning Azores high in the western Atlantic and is en route for the UK with the surface feature north west of Ireland. This low continues tracking south east bringing rain to England, particularly the south, before moving into Germany by 18z on Tuesday whilst at the same time another low has arrived over Scotland, forced further north the eastward movement of the ridge. This too moves rapidly south east into Denmark and the ridge once more makes a transient appearance but by Friday a familiar picture is unfolding.
  15. 10 points
    Last night's anomalies indicate no discernible pattern change in the near future and maintain the now familiar pattern so no point in running through it once again. Suffice it to repeat this does not necessarily mean a complete sackcloth and ashes scenario and perhaps a fair bit can be salvaged from a filling trough/Azores possibilties regime although there is probably no point in denying the prognosis is unsettled. So what does the gfs hold this morning. We are just entering the period when the low pressure takes centre stage. Today's fronts pass through quite quickly and as the trough get more organised to the WNW of Scotland the UK becomes under a westerly showery regime. with minor perturbations running around the circulation perhaps bringing periods of longer spell of rain From here it gets slightly more complicated, and interesting,and I suspect it may differ from the ecm. The trough fills and moves east virtually becoming a non feature until it is reenergised over the Baltic by upstream energy being diverted around Scotland by the Azores ridging over the UK. Thus as it stands next week could a lot worse with little wind, showers becoming less frequent, albeit the temps no great shakes and varying around the average, until the next Atlantic fronts arrive impacting the north on Friday. In the current situation I would takes this but rather depends on whether the ecm will as well
  16. 10 points
    Just pulled up in Asda's car park to see this impressive convective cloudscape.
  17. 9 points
    One photo from some lightning quite far away this evening:
  18. 9 points
    We can only hope for some improvement to this unsettled pattern later into next month. Certainly for the next few days it continues to look very unsettled and cyclonic with bands of rain or showers nationwide. A couple of fax charts underline the poor outlook A look at the expected Northern Hemisphere at day 5 shows how far south the jet path is modeled,down into mid-latitudes Sub-tropical high cells around the hemisphere looking very suppressed and our own Azores high very much held away from it's normal position.Instead we see +ve Greenland height anomalies pushing the jet further south. Sorry to sound downbeat but it is what it is,one of the worst patterns for our so called high Summer with Atlantic systems being routed our way, It really is a matter of making the best out of any brighter interludes that may come between the unsettled spells.
  19. 9 points
    A few from this evening. Not much to report but the sky has been fantastic!
  20. 9 points
    More funnel sightings today, this may even a weak tornado over the New Forest
  21. 8 points
    A more modern variety of barley being cut here which can be ripe with the head still vertical and not hanging down. Still cutting as combine had several breakdowns earlier. Has passed the tests for quality so pleased about that.
  22. 8 points
  23. 8 points
    Nothing much new to add this morning so keeping it brief. Broadly speaking the anomalies are still on the same page. Low pressure in the western Arctic with associated troughs Alaska and Iceland and strong ridging in central N. America being the main key features. Thus a steady upper westerly flow over the Atlantic with the struggling to make any meaningful sustained influence with the precise strength and orientation of the trough to the north west tending to dictate matters. But it will obviously still be part of the detail that the det. will need to sort over the next two or three days and the usual comments apply. Nothing significantly different in the ext period. Today finds the shallow low over the Hebrides with the cold front draped across central England and Wales and this marks the start of three days of cool showery conditions as another low tracks north into the North Sea and the surface wind veering northerly. By Thursday this low has cleared away east and taken the inclement weather with it and the UK has a brief respite with the Azores ridging in from the south west brief because over the next 24 hours the next trough tracks rapidly east from south of Iceland to north of the Shetlands and in the process suppressing the ridge with fronts tracking south east across the country. A very familiar scenario. As this deepening low swings away to the NE another feature slips in in on Saturday bringing more showery rain to most of the UK, the south east being the exception, and delaying the next burst of ridging from the Azores This does finally occur by Sunday but, yes, you've got it.............. So essentially remaining unsettled over the next seven days with temps improving somewhat as the time progresses but still varying around the average.
  24. 8 points
    Well I think that's my lot for tonight's activity unless something materialises later on. Distinctively cooler now though. Tried to capture the last few bits of cloudscape in the failing light. There's a cloud trying to bubble up as it heads out to sea but that's about it. Regards Glenn
  25. 8 points
    Hi A couple of rumbles from this as it passed out into the Nth Sea. The way the cloud was growing as it passed over was quite amazing. Cheers Glenn
  26. 8 points
    Last evening's anomalies, although not showing significant changes in the upper pattern were, perhaps moving in the right direction. The influential upper low has drifted north of the UK and is filling, eventually to lose it's identity as it moves east. Thus for a time the more unsettled weather may well be more to the south of the country as systems swing through on the quite strong upper westerlies.But hopefully, and there have been some indications of this recently in the later period, With the trough no longer on the scene the Azores can push north in the Atlantic thus veering the upper flow portending some drier and more settled weather, albeit with the usual geographic bias. Meanwhile back on the farm and after a quick look at this morning's gfs I felt, as Yogi Berra once said, it was deja vu all over again. We are currently struggling to get rid of one upper low and eventually after we do the same sequence may well run again next week. Anyway I suspect everyone is familiar with the prospects for the next four days with the low parked to the north west. Essentially the UK will be in a showery westerly airstream with occasional periods of more concentrated rain as systems run in from the southern quadrant of the main low. But all the time the low is slowly filling and by 00 Tuesday it has virtually lost it's identity High pressure then pushes in from the south but the aforementioned next intense upper low is en route which manages to distort the jet and thus by 12z Wednesday the large surface low 980mb dominates the eastern Atlantic with the associated fronts over Ireland. From here the low drifts NNE and the fronts traverse the country and another westerly showery regime is the order of the day but really no point in going into detail because so much is dependent on how precisely this pans out, if it does of course.
  27. 8 points
    Something interesting has popped up on the Icelandic Met weather model repository (brunnur.vedur.is). My Icelandic is a bit rusty but I'm guessing these are ECM ensemble clusters? CR must mean the cluster with the control run, and OP must mean the cluster with the operational run. The charts at the bottom seem more for general guidance rather than being part of the modelling. If I'm right, I'm pleased to see there are at least some clusters that provide long term hope!! Cluster 2 at T360 looks particularly fantastic!! Oh, the straws me and Frosty will be able to clutch now...!!!
  28. 8 points
    No significant changes with the anomalies last night so stright on with this morning's gfs. After a pleasant day today fronts cross the country tomorrow associated with the complex area of low pressure in the Atlantic which is going to influence our weather for a few days.In fact one way or another certainly for the next ten days with high pressure making fleeting appearances in the south. By 12z Thursday the main trough to the WNW has got itself organized and is fairly close to the Hebrides 975mb with the UK in a showery westerly. From this point the upper low hangs around to the north west as the surface feature slowly fills with the odd system running around the circulation. So by 12z we have this analysis with transient ridging just exiting the south east and the persistently strong jet ready to transport some more quite shallow systems ENE to to top up the general area of low pressure. Essentially this remains the situation for next week with the UK under the influence of the low pressure thus a generally unsettled period with showers, perhaps the odd longer period of rain, and of course drier and sunny intervals which will be longer and more inclined in the south where the high pressure may make some fleeting appearances. Temps quite variable around the average. Not what we are all looking for in the beginning of August but perhaps the reality will not be as grim as it looks.
  29. 8 points
    If you read any of Ant Masiello's tweets you'll have noticed that he was suggesting the Atlantic would become more active after the solar burst in mid July. Might just be coincident but pattern changed substantially following the most recent geomag events. Some recent research and it is not behind a paywall. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2782/full A useful tool for checking detail on current activity. https://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/
  30. 8 points
    You really can't argue with that. The GFS precipitation chart tells the story quite well: All areas except for the south east unlikely to dry out at all in the next 10 days (and I think there is fair consensus in the models) - if you go through the charts individually up to T240, it is clear that these totals arise from daily top-ups of rain rather than one day wash-outs. South eastern areas - their fate hangs in the balance, could go either way, the GFS as it would suggests quite dry but "pinch of salt" comes to mind. But hot weather is so tantalisingly close to coming off!! Indeed, on the GEFS ensembles at T240, 10 out of 22 members have a heatwave in the SE, and 3 out of 22 members have a UK wide heatwave. How much would have to change on the models for this to verify? A small weakening of the Atlantic, a small strengthening of a plume... Of course, the ECM ensemble mean is that little more pessimistic than the GEFS mean to start with, so we're probably even further away in reality than this GEFS member would make out: So it's not all over on the models. Think Antony Joshua just knocked to the floor by Klitschko - looked like the fight was over, but there was still a chance that he would come fighting back, as he did. In other words, don't expect decent weather next week, but the final nail isn't in the coffin just yet.
  31. 8 points
    Well i have just been looking through my youtube channel and forgot to get the screengrabs of last years storm that i promised on the 13/09/2016 and what a storm that was and this was in september so it's not too late to witness something like this again And the vid again,i know i posted it last year but thought that you would like to watch it again
  32. 8 points
    Same place, different day, different towers but sadly no storms.
  33. 8 points
    Last night's anomalies were very uninspiring so just the EPS will suffice to indicate a not dissimilar upper pattern to a couple of days ago. Strong ridging N. Pacific, low pressure over the Arctic with a conduit to the upper low north west of the UK via a trough northern Canada and ridging to the east extending into Greenland. The latter feature inhibits eastward movement of the Atlantic trough but with still quite a strong jet emanating from the eastern seaboard there is a danger of it being 'topped' up from time to time which would increase it's longevity and thus an unsettled weather regime. Meanwhile back on the farm this morning. The low pressure perched over us finally departs east late tomorrow but not before quite a cool day on Monday in the east with temps perhaps not rising much above 15C in the Cambridgeshire area. But Tuesday most of the UK is in a col and a generally a much warmer and tranquil day with temps in the 23-25C region in England and not too shabby elsewhere. So on the Wednesday By 12z the upper low is west of the Hebrides as is the surface feature, the fronts from which are busy traversing the country bringing wet weather to most and quite windy in the north and west. For the next couple of days the surface low wanders around between Iceland and Scotland with much of the Britain in a showery westerly with just the south hanging on the any influence from the Azores and thus drier and less windy here although the temps no great shakes.anywhere. But at the same time another system is tracking in from the south west (topping up the main low) and by Saturday a more general area of rain affects the UK. At the beginning of next week the main low does fill and move away NE and thus some transient ridging from the Azores but this starts to give way to the next Atlantic low Tuesday evening. The detail of these last few days will obviously change, and probably be treated differently by the ecm anyway, so merely to be noted. All in all not a lot different to earlier outlooks. changeable but certainly not a worse case scenario but that does rather depend on where you are given the usual NW/SE bias. I was wondering why eastward movement seemed to be underway later on and this would appear to be because the GEFS anomaly is dropping (at the moment anyway) the idea of sustained pressure rises to the east.
  34. 7 points
    Last night's anomalies are not a great deal of help in the medium term and merely indicate that the evolution for next week, and even this weekend, are is a long way from being nailed down. The models appear to struggle when you have the three current components in the mix, namely the major trough to the north west, the Azores to the south west and, the fly in the ointment, a second trough that drops south east and forms a cut off low around Iberia. How this combination interacts and who gains ascendancy seems to cause no end of problems, As can be seen there is quite a difference between the GEFs and EPS Best I can come up with at the moment is the percentage play is for most to remain unsettled but the south may escape with the HP nudging around. Given all of this perhaps not worth looking further ahead but just to say there are no obvious sign of any deviation away from an upper westerly flow and little indication of a more settled regime. Today quite a pleasant day for most except the north until the fronts have finally cleared to the NE. Tonight the cold front will encroach from the west bringing some light showery rain as it traverses the country tomorrow. The gfs this morning really just emphasizes what I have said above, After a couple of reasonable days Thursday and Friday (N. Scotland excepted as per) our faithfull shallow low is still hanging around over Ireland but, more to the point, it's about to get an injection of life from the north west which is decidedly not good news as 24 hours later low pressure dominates and the the UK is in a strong showert westerly with more prolonged rain over Scotland. This continues through Sunday and after a very brief respite a deep low tracks NE to be 975mb north west of Scotland by 18z Monday with the associated fronts crossing the country and gales in Scotland. The low then slowly tracks east and fills a tad leaving the UK in the strong westerly airstream. I think I'll leave it there and just keep in mind that gfs was always making more of the trough than the others but 140kt jet over the UK is just taking the mick
  35. 7 points
    There is no indication in last night's anomalies for any movement away from changeable/unsettled in the 6-14 day period with temps varying around the average, perhaps later a tad below in Scotland. The pattern in the earlier period is not unfamiliar with low pressure over the arctic which is easing considerable but with associated troughs Greenaland down eastern N. America and south east to the UK stretching down to Iberia. A ridge central Canada and positive anomalies in mid Atlantic with the Azores HP pushing a little north. and also some positive anomalies north of the UK. All of this amounts to a WNW/W flow easing considerable in the east which would indicate surface low pressure over the UK with quite possibly a showery regime with systems popping around the high pressure but this definitely an area where the det outputs will need to sort the detail No huge change in the later period except semblance of the the mid Atlantic ridge has gone thus a flatter upper flow and with the trough to the NW becoming the major influence I'm afraid a continuation of the unsettled outlook. The weather today should be quite pleasant for most but later fronts will effect the west moving NE so rain overnight and tomorrow, particularly in the NW but okay in the south. Tuesday midday see the filling low west of Ireland with showers effecting there and Scotland whilst elsewhere it will a pleasant warm day. From here the low moves slowly east and loiters around Scotland bringing showers and some longer periods of rain mainly effecting the north although the south does not get off scot free. At the same time it gets a little energy boost from the north west. Which brings us to the weekend. By saturday the low has tracked into the North Sea and the UK is in a col so a reasonable dry day And Sunday shouldn't be too bad either but by 18z the fronts from the next trough have arrived in the NW and track south east to be in the North Sea by 122z Monday. And just a reminder of the N/S split tendency in these patterns
  36. 7 points
    I guess the flip side to this is that Tuesday and Wednesday could very well be decent summer days with sunny spells and temperatures into the high twenties thanks to Gert and the associated parent low it phases with becoming slow moving to our west. If the fronts stay far enougb west and the warm air from the continent is advected our way cleanly then I wouldn't rule out 30c being reached on Wednesday. (The GFS is going for 27c and usual conditions apply regarding that model). Of course it is only in the last 24 hours that these days have suddenly been forecast to be very warm as opposed to changeable with Gert moving east over the north of the UK. Hence perhaps it is worth keeping an open mind regarding the end of the week onwards.
  37. 7 points
    Wow bottom cumulonimbus looks like it's on steroids
  38. 7 points
    The first bang you hear in this clip is fairly typical of what I was hearing last night..
  39. 7 points
    Not sure there is much to be gained by getting too hung up on the anomalies post Gert at the moment as consistent they are not as a quick glance at the last two NOAA charts will illustrate. Suffice it to say they are currently all in the same ball park which would indicate that the percentage play is a more settled spell with Azores HP to the SW/W becoming more influential but as ever the precise orientation and intensity of the surface high will be key to the detail and duration vis the UK (the EPS is not dissimilar to the GEFS) So on to the gfs this morning. The current low the NW tracks ESE to be just off NE Scotland by 12z tomorrow with the UK in a showery north westerly This gradually moves away towards Norway on Saturday as a transient ridge nudges in briefly on Sunday but by 06z on Monday the next low (ex Gert) has arrived ENE of the Hebrides with associated fronts across the north west. What happens next is perhaps the key to the rest of next week and in the next 24 hours the gfs deepens the low somewhat and runs it down to the east North Sea diving a pretty inclement day on Monday, particularly in the north before the surface wind veers northerly as the high pressure that has been amplifying to the west tracks a little east. For the rest of the week the HP is in charge before retrogressing towards the end of week leaving the door ajar for troughs to swing around it and SE towards the UK a scenario that this morning's GEFS would not appear adverse to. An illustration of the importance of the orientation of the surface high cell
  40. 7 points
    Keep the faith gang, I've mentioned encouraging signs earlier today and the Gfs 12z shows the full potential for a late August summery spell with warm surface conditions and high pressure taking control with increasingly dry and sunny weather...potential for very warm / hot continental weather later on this run too..as did the 6z op! Caution of course but there are grounds for optimism.
  41. 7 points
    Some nice storm cells passed through this morning with rapidly moving scud and some apparent rotation. No lightning visible but several cracks of thunder.
  42. 7 points
    I was out walking Clyde early this morning as work beckoned. It was cool and crisp at 5C, clear sky and almost no noise. This was perfect compensation for a 4am alarm call. The colours even well before sunrise were very pretty with Venus dazzling high above the horizon. And best of all, not one single insect to annoy me:
  43. 7 points
    already in autumn and will be until next may
  44. 7 points
    Yes, proper cold winters tend to crop up when we're heading out of solar minimum, not when we're heading in (like we are now). Not saying that this winter will not be cold though. In fact, this current solar descent is proving to be quite rapid and it did not start from a high level of activity relative to previous solar maximas As always, time will tell. David, Northallerton
  45. 7 points
    Interesting storm that tracked across Norfolk this evening. No rain in Swardeston south of Norwich but some great cloud formations and plenty of rotation. Really thought this would give us a funnel cloud, but not to be. Still, a good storm to watch as it passed over to the north of us.
  46. 7 points
    Hi all, we've just updated the forum to the latest version. There are some new features I'll post about later on, but in the meantime, if you spot any problems please let me know.
  47. 7 points
    A couple of shots from earlier tonight with two impressive flashes and rumbles
  48. 7 points
    Evening All , WOW this is an amazing outlandish post ...cold and stormy autumn weather and like 2007 in the next few weeks This is nothing like 2007 , if you look at the big picture Ridge Low , Ridge Low,,,,some rainy spells along with some fine and settled conditions...Now can I have a Chocolate Biscuit or perhaps a Chocolate Teapot
  49. 7 points
    A very intense shower just clearing here at my parents just SW of Ashford in Kent Before (looking north) with radar Following a kind of 'whales mouth' below looking south had torrential rain but no thunder
  50. 7 points
    That was a nice end to that thunder-shower.
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