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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Metwatch replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Completely agree with this part! The weather doesn't care about our preferences or if we've been suffering after many long period rainfall records broken in the last 18 months. However it can't stay the same forever, the general pattern reshuffles every few weeks to every 2-3 months. And even in the last 12-18 months being so wet, dry spells have still occurred; i.e the very dry February 2023, Mid May to late June, early September, early October and mid January this year, but we've had much more in the way of wet periods overriding the drier spells. Another reshuffle of the synoptic pattern is now taking place with high pressure building near the country then likely transitioning to a -NAO (Greenland high pressure block) so we are entering a drier but coolish next 7-10 days, though still not completely dry. Given there hasn't even been a drier spell in the last few months, there should in theory be a prolonged on in the next few weeks, but when exactly no one really knows. Most likely it should happen in May some point or into June. -
Daily weather observations - April 15th to April 21st
hillbilly replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Dry and sunny but chilly then some showers arrived mid afternoon with hail before a dry and sunny end to the day,max 11 deg,min 2 deg -
Two excellent May’s that both happened pretty recently but if you had to pick what one would you say was better? For me I would say they were both very close but 2018 just edges it out as being slightly better for myself. 2020 was sunnier but 2018 was both slightly warmer and drier. My memories of each are: 2018: Actaully began quite cold and unsettled under a northerly, it wasn’t until the 5th that the weather started to improve. Come the 6th it was very warm reaching the low 20’s and the sun was shining. It wasn’t to last however and come the 9th things briefly turned cooler and unsettled once again. However it was by the 12th that the weather settled down and it remained like that for the whole month and well into June. Then come the final week the temperature exceeded 20.C every day from the 23rd-31st. Never experienced such prolonged heat in May like it. It was absolutely brilliant. There was virtually no rain in the second half as well. 2020 was another cracking May but I think the north fared a little bit worse off than the south. It was cooler than 2018 although not by much despite being sunnier. Rainfall was close to the same however but it was more spread out and there was only a couple of really hot days unlike 2018 which was generally consistently very warm. I can recall getting a couple of notably cold northerly blasts during this month with then a few days either side of them reaching the high teens. I only recorded 8 days with a high of above 20.C in May 2020, 2018 recorded 12 days above 20.C. share your memories
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I want May to be the hottest, driest and sunniest on record after this crap. Give us a break.
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Moans, ramps and banter
TwisterGirl81 replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
WYorksWeather May is actually our sunniest month on average here oddly enough so wouldn’t surprise me, fingers crossed -
Moans, ramps and banter
TwisterGirl81 replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
richie3846 it’s fine, no worries, I understand I’m sorry I didn’t word it clearly enough. Hope you are getting some support hugs. -
TwisterGirl81 sorry, I jumped the gun there. I'm a little prone to that as I'm in recovery from complex PTSD. stainesbloke it sounds awful. At least in southern UK, days as cold as that in mid April are pretty rare.
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Moans, ramps and banter
TwisterGirl81 replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
richie3846 hey…cool your heels, if you read the part where I said gaslighting it was in reference to met office weather reporter saying we had a wet winter and I was thinking ‘and the rest’ it wasn’t a dig at you, relax ok -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Don replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
WYorksWeather Doesn't it just! - Today
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Robert1981 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
From Cambridge to Norwich along the A14 /A11 corridor there as been some heavy showers but no lightning. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
WYorksWeather replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don Northern blocking always appears too late these days... -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Don replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wish we were seeing posts like this from you 2-4 months ago! -
It would seem that exceptionally warm temperatures always manage to make their way back, no matter what.....
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
WYorksWeather replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
minus10 It's sometimes useful to keep an eye on the wind plumes for the ECM I find. A bit more variation by the end, and the mean temperatures close to average (albeit accompanied by yet more rain). Of course a long way off and not to be taken seriously. I will be watching these in the coming days to see if we get any hints of a pattern change. At the moment it's just an increase in uncertainty. -
Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Thunders replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
friend in tittleshall heard thunder at about 17:20 -
Moans, ramps and banter
WYorksWeather replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
raz.org.rain April so far has been exceptional to achieve such a mild mean temperature with very uninspiring synoptics, boosted by a notable lack of cold nights in the first half, but also exceptional SSTs meaning we achieve higher daytime temperatures than you'd expect for the pattern. By May that option is really closed off I think. The CET min, mean and max for 1961-1990 averages are 6.7C, 11.1C, and 15.6C. If we wanted a notably warm month by modern standards, to average 2C or more about 1961-1990, you'd need an absolutely ridiculous set of south-westerlies. If we assume you split it maybe +2.5C by night and +1.5C by day, then you'd need minima of 9.2C and maxima of 17.1C. In a westerly pattern that's just ridiculous. A few days or a week of that kind of pattern is possible given the SSTs remain extremely high, but the odds of it maintaining for an entire month are essentially zero. At some point you'd either end up introducing something more southerly or south-easterly and going drier, sunnier and even warmer, or more westerly which would still be wet and dull most likely but also cooler. I suppose May 2022 is the closest as it was very warm, duller than average (80% of average sunshine), and near average for rainfall. I'm not sure there's ever been a notably warm May that was also both significantly wetter and duller than average across most of the country, though it definitely will have happened at particular stations depending on the prevailing pattern. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
minus10 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
WYorksWeather gefs 12z showing a clear 5 wave pattern which as i understand can stay around for some time... ...this was referred to in latest met 10 day trend as potentially a self sustaining pattern...problem is the uk is not in the best position if the pattern evolves as moduled keeping the cooler north easterly theme...at least the sun is getting stronger and the nights getting shorter still...as others have said this is not untypical for spring... -
April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
Roger J Smith replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Okay, I took a look at all cases of late April temperature drops relative to first fourteen days (only the warmest 8% of early Aprils were in first sample, granted they would stand a better than average chance of seeing a drop of 1.0+, just about the entire 50% below average first fourteen days would likely be excluded by seasonal trend alone) ... ... that leads to following table of all cases with drops of 1.5 C or more (a total of 51 out of 252 dropped by at least 0.1 C and 11 stayed level). ... YEAR ___ CET 1-14 _ CET 1-30 _ decrease 1778 ___ 10.7 ___ ____ 8.2 ___ ___ 2.5 1815 ____ 9.9 ___ ____ 8.1 ___ ___ 1.8 1884 ____ 8.9 ___ ____ 7.2 ___ ___ 1.7 1859 ____ 9.1 ___ ____ 7.5 ___ ___ 1.6 1906 ____ 8.9 ___ ____ 7.3 ___ ___ 1.6 1835 ___ 10.1 ___ ____ 8.6 ___ ___ 1.5 1981 ____ 9.3 ___ ____ 7.8 ___ ___ 1.5 This list adds only four cases (1884, 1859, 1906, 1981) to identify all drops of 1.5+, now working on a program that can isolate cases where second half of April was colder than Feb - march. I wouldn't be surprised to find one or two. -
As noted by a few on twitter tomorrow in Texas is looking quite interesting, high-extreme cape but with very low cape. Storms firing on a stationary cold front/dryline intersection, could be a few storms 'zippering' along the boundary and moving to the south west. Heres a comparison between the HRRR and Nam 3k, the Nam usually over moistens the atmosphere while the HRRRs overmixing bias dries things out so expect a middle between these models to verify High dewpoint values should lead to large cape profiles developing. This bigtime cape will lead to explosive updrafts But shear will really be on the low side with bulk shear of only 30 knots and below and 3km inflow of less than 20 knots. Having said that i wouldnt rule out a tornado threat, low level instability and vorticity (especially aided by the boundary) combined with the general large instability profiles could foster a tornado threat with a cell that can latch onto the boundary and slide down it. In fact, looking at this setup im reminded of Jarrell 1997, NO we are not going to get an F5 or anywhere close to that day, but looking at tornado archives the setup does bare some resemblance although cape will be weaker than in Jarrells case. Heres a few soundings, all taken from south Dallas, near Waco. HRRR Nam 3km I think i enjoy these days over high shear low cape, very mesoscale driven. Certain boundaries, pockets of vorticity or even surges in the RFD can lead to interesting things. Certain fail modes relate to storms quickly becoming OFD due to dry air, a more clustered mode or the weak shear overall stunting tornadogenesis/cell development Apart from the tornado threat large hail and wind damage are all possible. As said earlier the tornado risk tomorrow will be completely down to the mesoscale, or even storm scale environment. Regardless, doesn't look like too bad of a day to chase, these Texas high cape storms are always absolutely beautiful.
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richie3846 Yes, we’re certainly paying for a few very warm days last week, it’s absolutely baltic in that foul wind. Think it got to the dizzy heights of 9°C today, the joy is indescribable