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Oh, for the expansion of the Hadley cycle ,

jamesthemonkeh How would the Lake district fare in this set up still chilly? Im off there and also a day trip to the West Coast of Scotland im guessing better than here in the SE closer to the high? I always hear the NW is best in May and first half of June

24 April 2024 Time-Lapse

Catbrainz Indeed GFS 12 has thrown out something more positive but there's no cross-model agreement yet. It's something to keep an eye on.

Hello am I reading the charts wrong? GFS 12 doesn’t look terrible next week after the low dips down to Iberia meaning the U.K. is back under orange below that black line.

I remember Atlantic 252 With any luck the Nino backending will have worn off by then and there may be some chance of winter synoptics occuring in actual wintertime. A light La Nina beginning in around September would kill it by October and lead to more seasonality for the period, ENSO-neutral would probably see an autumn 2016 repeat with summer synoptics continuing into December and then rapidly giving up and switching to a more frontended year like 2017. We have suffered the worst of all worlds in the last year, Super El Nino + positive IOD + sky high SSTs even without El Nino + late deep SSW. Horrible, vile combination that hopefully doesn't recur anytime soon. We could do with quite a long ENSO-neutral period now, around 2-3 years, or at least only very mild Nina/Nino events for the next 4-5 years. This constant back and forth between El Nino, triple La Nina and Super El Nino is exaggerating the growing extremes we were already seeing without them. ENSO-neutral winters are really a 50/50 with them either being extremely mild like 2019/20 or 2013/14 or cold like 2012/13. For springs and summers though they have a good track record, spring 2020 was the last neutral spring we had and July 2013 occured in the last true neutral summer. I can't think of any serious stinkers that occured during true neutral. Something like 2003 (not a stinker but for the purposes of definition) which is technically neutral doesn't really count as that's post-Nino and the global climate was still clearly being affected by it at the time.

Addicks Fan 1981 August 1993 was probably slightly colder still but I would say that August 2007 was perhaps maybe slightly wetter and duller overall. I think northern Scotland had a very wet August 2007. Summer 1993 was probably a much better summer than 2007 purely because the June and July that happened in 2007 was one of the worst.

@MetwatchI really hope something from the west or south comes in... This dry air has been nothing but grim. So much middle level moisture just causing gloom and absolutely shocking temperatures for late April. Monday was like January, except it got dark at 9pm.

*Stormforce~beka*Quite literally looks like someone was pulled a giant cotton wall blanket / duvet over the sky. What a pretty shade of grey

Very little rain today, a sharp shower mid morning and an hour of light rain this afternoon. Equally very little sunshine after 09.00 and a cool wind since mid afternoon.

So if Derecho's projected CET values come to fruition, the 2nd half of April (7.7C) will come in below the April 1961-90 average (7.9C). It feels more like February just gone than April and we are heading into the final month of spring next week.. I'm starting to think I overcooked my estimate of 9.6C. 10 days ago I thought the opposite. What a contrast!

Dami Dear weather gods. . . Can you just eff off!

Second half of this April has been quite devoid of anything thundery as high pressure has had a greater influence to our west, the next few days doesn't catch my eye either. However going into May does appear a bit more interesting. Looks like a trough is modelled across various outputs to collapse down into the Bay of Biscay. As a result much warmer air comes in via central Europe, then to Germany and that eventually arriving here via an easterly mid next week, a sort of modified plume I guess. Difficult to say how thundery things would be and where the boundary between cooler and warmer air sets up, but would expect something to pop up from this pattern. Interesting to see how this evolves in the coming days.

A cool and cloudy day with light showers and a few short sunny intervals. At 1700 g.m.t Temp; 5.9c Max today; 7.8c Min last night; 0.8c Grass min; -2.6c Rainfall from 0800-1700 g.m.t; 0.3 mm Sunshine today so far; 0.5 hrs Mean wind speed; 7 mph NW Highest gust today; 23 mph W at 0959 g.m.t 7 oktas Cu, Cb and Sc Vis; 40 miles

Part of me wonders if this run of SSWs is related to El Niño conditions and warmth being shunted into the Arctic. Considering everyone keeps banging on about how global temps will cool down with La Niña, presumably this will include the Arctic. Less anomalous warmth in the Arctic would drastically reduce the possibility of SSWs if I understand right.

Frost tonight too, will be warmer in 8-9 months, raging SW'lys double digit temps feeling balmy

Cold dry weather, yeah that worked out well....

Heating on full whack here. Can see my breath outside. Vile.

Looks like being the wettest April since 1970 for the region.

Big area of showers over home moving south towards Warrington. I'm out in Liverpool atm and see the dark clouds missing me to the east.

A mixed bag today after a decent couple of days. A few showers, some heavy. Temperature only reached 9.9C, well below average for the time of year.

Dear weather Gods, Can we have some weather please. sighed a bored stormer.

I had taken the image of the dark clouds outside my house. It looks threating, almost dark at one point as it is moving east.

Lee Notts Mid July??? Here it was chucking it down from the 1st July.

RRFS also now in range, has some morning convection, in my experience rrfs slightly overdoes am convection and clouds, but even with it doesn't particularly do much to the environment west of I35, Multiple Kansas supercells and a very classic I44 supercell in OK. The Wichita mountains in south western Oklahoma can often act as a small scale forcing mechanism. Its unfortunately why Moore is so infamous for tornadoes, storms develop over the mountains and track to the northeast into OKC metro. Oklahoma and Kansas need to watch this day very closely.