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  2. I am sure I remember reading somewhere once that the models have less data imputed over the weekend on some of them which is probably why Met Office sticking with cold.. And at the end of the day they are never that badly wrong 5 days ahead
  3. The red warning was issued the night before.. in the wrong place. It was moved during the early morning.
  4. You know what if forecasts only went out a couple of days or we had no access to any models, maybe we would actually enjoy any cold weather for what it is, when it is, rather than actually worrying about how soon it will breakdown. I sometimes think all this long term model watching actually spoils it all for us and serves our peace of mind pretty badly. Point is if you get some snow appreciate and enjoy its presence in the there and then rather than making a big deal about how long it may or may not last, as it won't be forever regardless and few cold spells last a very long time this far west in Eurasia even in the heart of Winter as its just not normal to. A lot of this snow craving is also based on nostalgia, but with the exception of a small handful of times, a lot of cold and snowy spells rarely made it over a week before milder air displaced it. And I bet back then you all enjoyed it in the moment without getting hung up about how soon it might end as you either weren't overly concerned or your expectations on how long it might stick around for were perhaps more realistic before model viewing took over your lives and this idea that anything less than 2 weeks to 2 months just won't do. Anyway rant over and good luck to all this week for some snow however long it may be on the ground for.
  5. I've thought about it a bit and most likely Gavin is Gary's wicked stepmother.
  6. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    admittedly two milder runs further into the run - FI right now folks - lots of snow to go under the bridge 1st - it's just a model run - pumped that out and ensembles will tell us on both gfs and ecm whether they are rogue mild or something to take more serious - at the moment Liza has got THREE Shirley bassey shows starting Friday she'd like to do lol - but the weather still looks like it's gonna stop her doing them - they st david's day shows - Friday night and 2 Saturday in Cardiff afternoon and evening with mini welsh festival called St David Rocks - three tom jones tribs - three Shirley bassey tribs and a sterephonics band celebrating st david's day on 3rd march in 8 brains venues in Cardiff - they still might need a sled to get about lol
  7. it's not a cold snap,it's a severe spell of weather with maybe record low temps for this time of year .if people think the models have the exact path of the low pressure system six days ahead well good luck to them
  8. Just remember the models have been poor over weekends numerous times this winter (supposedly less data available) So I wouldn't worry about what they're showing again tomorrow, enjoy the start of this freezing spell and check the models again Monday onwards. If nothing has changed by then just make the most of this fantastic wintry week coming up, and watch that radar for surprises popping up out of nowhere.
  9. The cold forecast for my location is comparable to cold snaps over the last few years so unless a dumping of snow makes it this far inland it's looking like a predictable non event for me.
  10. Still scope to keep a lot of the country in colder uppers for a while longer and a slight improvement in pushing colder air down from the north on the 18z. Two thngs to look for, this week’s system not pushing as quickly or as far west as currently modelled and the second low remaining undeveloped and further south and west, delaying its intrusion. GEFS ptb 7 is one of a few members doing that, with good results. GIF below.
  11. I think people have a right to be disappointed when they've spent the last 3 weeks of their lives tracking a "historic, once in a generation" cold spell, only to be left with what appears to be a 3 day cold snap. Would they have invested so much time and hope if the latter had been the likely outcome all along? Frankly, no. But we've seen how quickly things can swing so let's hope for another in our favour in the morning
  12. I'm amazed at some doom merchants on here all because one days' model' outputs showed a slightly milder outlook next Friday GFS & ECM are mild outliers for that particular period. We have the beast from the east striking our shores on Sunday night where the fun begins with a big freeze and snow. Once this beast sets in, let's see how the models run with Friday. It will be interesting to see what the MetO's Outlook update will show in a few hours time. Expect surprises in this sort of beast from the east set up.
  13. @0.8 degrees c we had this on the 10th Dec 2017 - 15cm https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWELWYN8#history/s20171208/e20180225/mcustom ...so check the above link to see it doesn't have to be Alaska to get snow
  14. Absolutely ridiculous comment. Upper air temperatures as low as -17°C are modelled to move over parts of the UK by Wednesday. The return period for an event like this is around 1 in 20 years. If that doesn't reach the criteria of an "epic spell", then I don't know what does. Anyway, back to the models. For anyone that hasn't heard of it before, the ManUniCast model (http://manunicast.seaes.manchester.ac.uk/) is pretty good at picking up short-term convective precipitation. Here's what it's showing for Monday at 8am: Definite signs of a Thames streamer setting up here, as well as quite a few sea-effect showers setting up along the entire east coast of the UK. Considering that the main action for most will be on Tuesday and Wednesday, this is encouraging.
  15. Comments on the GEFS trending mild? Not sure that’s ‘drama’, just stating what is now showing, which is a milder trend. Whether we like it or not, that’s what it’s showing and this is the MOD thread. I’ve been steadfast in my opinion this low will move south, but it’s not looking good now.
  16. As a scientist the rule is very base you follow what the data you are presented without Bias. Crewcold is one of the most objective posters of this forum tonight and the last few days .Other posters get almost 'god' like status due to their constant bias for cold/snow which is what the majority want. But to a trained eye its easy to see the holes in certain 20,000 + likes understanding of synoptic scale meteorology Forecasting is not about what you want to see its about what is actually going to happen. Objectivity is key . On tonight output it is clear there is very strong signal for a breakdown Friday into Saturday.
  17. That's not quite correct. The BBC forecasts picked up on that streamer towards the back end of the Saturday, 24 hours before it kicked off, and firmed up on it through the Sunday.
  18. I have to say I'm totally into this one. Who cares if I'm buried in it. ( I really do but the wider sentiment requires objectivity ) this looks set to be a bitterly cold experience. Good luck!
  19. Wtf? Mosquitoes whining in the kitchen now. Can they not read calendars or thermometers?
  20. In fairness Gavin (aka Summer Sun) tells of incoming 'milder' weather so keeps it well balanced here..!!
  21. Air temperature in Moscow Saturday only -10c Modified before reaching UK, that will probably be above Zero! Ice days Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday? Difficult to imagine. I remember January 1987 temperatures in Moscow were around -30c Maximum temperature in Kent was around -4c (slightly lower during heavy snow showers)
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