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  2. nearly p1553d myself!!! a huge red and orange angry snow bomb!!!
  3. I don’t get it either, sometimes it feels like people get a buzz out of seeing cold charts regardless of whether they actually verify or not. i couldn’t care less what some chart shows in 7-10 days, I want to see white stuff outside!
  4. GFS does show heights trying to push towards the N and W around +240 hours Nothing quite happens though and whilst cold uppers wouldn't be too far away, by +288 the heights collapse in over and just go on to form part of a ugly looking Euro 'slug' (though this is deep into the run) So still some interest in regards to those heights but nothing looks too exciting to me this morning GEFS 6z ensembles are just a traditional mix match of endless possibilities and cannot possibly be analysed with any confidence, though only a small amount go real cold Only nice little addition this morning is a decent run by the GEM which has that area of HP to our west lying in a very favourable position to pull down some more potent Notherly winds back end of next week - in fact the heights then stick around for a good few days too Not sure if I have much faith in the GEM though.
  5. Those swingometers are needed..Although they'll malfunction at this rate.
  6. If the Atlantic is being overplayed there I can see that being possible height rises NE, luckily it’s far enough away la la land. 0z was a better illustration of that with height rises over the UK toppling as a trough moves down under through Scandinavia. All speculation but a drier period would be welcome.
  7. Charts at 324 and 348 hours away are not worth worrying about!
  8. And here are the GEFS 06Z ensembles: Ergo, the warm scenario is also an outside bet...?
  9. The 06z is a pretty clear outlier at the end Edinburgh London
  10. Not sure the day 10 plus chart in question will be 100% right
  11. Today
  12. What would be useful is an areal average temperature for Tasmania for today. BoM rarely releases those details and we don't have anything like a daily CET measurement that is publicly available. Campania is 20km to the north of Hobart and while it almost broke the state record, it only has 20 years worth of temperature records. There are no closed weather stations in that geographical area either that may offer an insight of previous weather. Hobart has by far the longest dataset on the list ( 138 years ), followed by Bushy Park and Flinders Island ( 58 years ) and Fingal ( 34 years ). The rest on the list: Tunnack, Ouse, Devonport have 22-28 years of data. It took about 5 hours for the cool wind change to clear the island from south to north ( a slow mover ) and right now it's a pleasant 16c at 11pm. Hobart highest November temperatures ( records since 1882 ) 36.8.....2019 21st 36.8.....1937 36.7.....1888 36.1.....1966 35.8.....1982
  13. People clinging onto every run and dissecting charts in Fi for me is becoming tiresome. Each run will look vastly different at that range nevermind its the GFS. Think im just going to look at the UKMO going forward only goes out to 144hr and it is one of the best performing models.
  14. 6.3c to the 20th 0.9c below the 61 to 90 average 1.5c below the 81 to 10 average __________________________________ Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st Current low this month 6.3c to the 19th & 20th
  15. GB's Kyle Edmund beats Kazakhstan's Mikhail Kukushkin 6-3 6-3 Very well played Kyle !! Andy Murray being rested today. Partly due to his efforts y'day and his hip recovery, but he also has a cold .. and says he is carrying a few pounds excess in weight, lol.
  16. Quite, but other people don't know that and start giving you a wide berth as if you are contagious
  17. If the mild euro slug filth later in the Gfs 6z operational is not your cup of tea, there is some wintry interest for coldies in the GEFS 6z with arctic potential early Dec!!!!
  18. Got a feeling it will, it looks vulnerable to further attacks, certainly relative to the usual looking vortex in early December.
  19. ...it is a relatively new development, though familiar from last winter, and one that clearly is quite possible. Before we write off the early part of Winter from a cold perspective, wise to see if this is transient, a feature or just giggery-pokery from the model's algorithms?
  20. 6Z moderates the warming.. Bit of a roller coaster at the moment.Tues i was downbeat,yesterday was a bit more promising, today is a step back to Tue really. Yes, we have a Greenland high moving forward,but we also have a crap downstream profile.I don't think there is a middle ground for early Dec- we either see enough energy in the southern arm to displace the horrid heights across Spain/France to allow for a Northerly,or we see the heights repel the projected northerly and a +NAO pattern setting up. I think Blue touched on this earlier, i don't think its possible to make a call at the range we are talking, clearly, the BBC monthly author is of the opinion the latter scenario will play out.
  21. Totally agree, it's getting to the point where I personally don't mind if it's going to be mild or cold but let's just get some drier weather for a change
  22. Well that definitely doesn't apply to you @knocker
  23. LOL!! The pitch invader has been apprehended !!! Now for a quick moan, today looks the last dry day for a while- we have had 4 or 5 seasonal days of Autumn weather with a cool breeze, great for walking. Now for 7 days minimum of Wind and Rain.
  24. I'm surprised that so many are surprised that the GFS operational has flipped toward the warm side of the ensemble, once again; it's been swinging back-and-forth for months...? And, anywho, the super duper Snowmageddon solution has always been an outside bet: It's nae even winter, yet!
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