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  2. GFS continues to look rather unsettled and right out to the end of the run from mid week with a deep upper trough arriving from western UK, SE and London should cling on to some warmth and dryness but all areas should become under the influence of the trough by weekend. Need to make the most of the next 2 days.
  3. Another ground frost this morning with a min of 1.5C and fog patches. Now clear and sunny and up to 16.4C.
  4. The 6z operational tried to become wintry across the north, well, as wintry as it's possible to get in early may..fighting a losing battle.
  5. If this materialises, many peeps could see more thunder-days, in a five-day period, than in the whole of last summer? Though, having said that, ONE is hardly a tough total to beat!
  6. Another 0.3 increase for today seems likely, and tomorrow still looking warm in the CET zone.
  7. Mostly sunny although there’s some high level cloud and it’s a little hazy. Temp 21.8°C RH 38%
  8. Eastern Scotland could well end April with a surplus of rain (Edinburgh's average is 45mm) thanks to a blocked situation with low pressure stuck between areas of high pressure.
  9. Following earlier comments on the pattern change the evolution from the EPS mean anomalies this morning is not unexpected and along the same lines.It ends in the later period with main vortex lobe/trough N. Russia > Scandinavia whilst upstream there is a ridge into Greenland with a negatively tilted trough south of it into the NW Atlantic This results in the upper flow diverging leading to a relatively weak westerly over the UK. Probably portending changeable but fairly benign weather with temps around average
  10. The all-important questions is: will Sunday's potential 'waft' give the SE half of Englandshire a warm and muggy day?
  11. The Gfs 6z operational shows a brief window of drier, brighter and warmer weather for the s / se on sunday thanks to a ridge.
  12. Very warm with unbroken sunshine Temp 18.6C, Barometer 1006mb falling, Wind F2 ESE, Rainfall Nil
  13. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 22 Apr 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 23 Apr 2019 ISSUED 21:08 UTC Sun 21 Apr 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan Atlantic longwave trough will continue to dig southwards during Monday towards western Iberia. As a result, southerly flow aloft across the British Isles will gradually back southeasterly, advecting relatively high ThetaW airmass from France into southern and central Britain. Areas of medium/high level cloud will occasionally drift northward courtesy of weak mid-level instability and increased moisture aloft. Deep mixing will likely occur through the day, resulting in steep low-level lapse rates. However, this will also likely mix drier air down to the surface, resulting in low dewpoints and large dewpoint depressions. Subtle forcing aloft will drift over S / SW Britain on Monday afternoon, coinciding with peak surface heating. This combined with low-level wind convergence and orographic forcing may allow a few isolated heavy showers / thunderstorms to develop late afternoon or evening, primarily Somerset/Glocs and into Wales. There could also be one or two over Ireland. However, the vast majority of NWP guidance remains sufficiently capped to prevent any thunderstorm development. GFS and derivatives (WRF, NMM) often produce profiles that are excessively moist, and hence suggest much higher surface dewpoints than most other models for Monday afternoon. Consequently they often favour thunderstorm development - especially over mountainous areas - when in similar events in the past such storms have failed to materialise. UKV and AROME have also been known to be too keen for thunderstorm development in fairly capped environments. As such, it is plausible that no thunderstorms may develop at all. That said, a broad LOW threat level has been introduced to cover the risk - at this stage it is difficult to be more precise where an isolated shower/storm may develop, though S + W Wales is most favoured. If confidence does improve a small SLGT may be introduced. Should a storm develop, given forecasting soundings and the potential magnitude of CAPE, there could be quite a bit of lightning locally. Any activity would then drift NW-wards towards eastern Ireland during the evening hours. On Monday night, pulses of showery rain will move into S / SW England containing the remnants of deep convection originating from northern France. Weak instability suggests any lightning activity with this should be fairly isolated. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-04-22
  14. Saturday 27 Apr - Monday 6 May Next weekend could be very unsettled, with often heavy rain and the risk of gales, especially in the west and southwest. Thunder and hail are likely at times and temperatures will mainly be on the cold side of average. Thereafter, for the remainder of April and into early May, unsettled conditions are likely to dominate, with a chance of showers or longer spells of rain and some periods of stronger winds, especially in the west and southwest. Whilst some rain is expected at times, there could be a shift towards more settled conditions later. Temperatures will most likely be near normal in the west, and slightly warmer than the seasonal average in the south and southeast. Tuesday 7 May - Tuesday 21 May For the middle of May, some rain and unsettled conditions are likely, especially at first. However, a shift towards more settled conditions than of late is probable. Whilst some rain is possible at times, a good deal of fine and dry weather is most likely, with temperatures mostly above the seasonal average. Any warmer conditions are most likely in the south and southeast. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
  15. The only comfort so far for me, amid this sunny and overly warm weather, is the fact that both the Aprils of 2007 and 2012 were sunny and warm, and were followed by very wet summers. Here's hoping for a repeat this year.
  16. Today
  17. Day 3 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 24 Apr 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 25 Apr 2019 ISSUED 08:42 UTC Mon 22 Apr 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan Negatively-tilted upper trough will span from the Atlantic to Biscay on Wednesday, while pivoting gradually northwards. As the forward side of this trough moves steadily northwards across the British Isles, increased forcing / cooling aloft combined with surface heating will create an unstable environment, with 500-800 J/kg CAPE ahead (to the north) of the surface cold front. A few scattered thunderstorms may develop over Wales / Midlands / East Anglia, these drifting northwards into northern England during Wednesday afternoon, weakening during the evening as instability wanes. These may initially be elevated, but provided there is sufficient surface heating then there is potential for these to become rooted within the boundary layer. However, the speed of the cold front, and cloud amounts thrown ahead of the front, will both determine the areas at risk of thunderstorms - both of which could inhibit deep convection. A SLGT may be introduced nearer the event if confidence improves. The post-frontal environment will become increasingly unstable as the next shortwave, and associated cooling aloft, arrives from the south. As such, showers may affect the English Channel and into southern Britain during Wednesday evening and night, though the extent of any lightning activity is questionable given marginal instability. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-04-24&fbclid=IwAR2piVGU0r3DLIoqrkSca9SEY9h3j2pBlx-jX6JeF9Wzh0NsuTuBh3d1jS0
  18. I did thanks. Amazing going around Nicosia and crossing into the occupied Turkish side.
  19. It looks like those of us who are loving this summery weather will soon be paying a high price for it but that's the swings and roundabouts of spring and model watching.
  20. Let's hope my good friend the CFS has got the pattern change back to high pressure correct! Been hinting at it for some time, it also shows the upcoming unsettled spell correct, so it's not so out on its own has some think.
  21. Shaun Murphy has delivered the 1st Crucible whitewash in 27 years defeating Luo Honghao 10-0
  22. No, that's fine JennyJane, I'll enter those into my Competition Folder. Thank you. Regards, Tom.
  23. So here we are at Wednesday, and the trough has moved through, ushering-in a change to more unsettled, less-warm weather: What happens next is (as the chopping and changing ensembles clearly show) uncertain...It could literally go any which way, longer term?
  24. 8.7c to the 21st 1.3 above the 61 to 90 average 0.8 above the 81 to 10 average _______________________________ Current high this month 8.7c to the 21st Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th
  25. Ha, lol, i get two go's the ones i picked myself and the ones you picked for me !! sorry didn't see you had picked for me till after i posted.
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