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  2. Got to 19c yesterday, but was quite cloudy most of the day. We did have a little rain 0.2mm around 8pm. Was 13.4c at midnight and a low of 10.5c at 5am. Light grey skies this morning, 13c Westerly wind 10-12mph.
  3. Oh dear, even at t144 ECM is one to flush, a promising situation is deteriorating rapidly this morning, ECM ends pretty dreadfully to be honest.
  4. vile is the word, early June looking like autumn, early June isn't summer really
  5. Just want to post up JENNYJANE's IRISH CLASSIC DOUBLE's, as J.J was the only entrant to manage a "virtual" return: JENNYJANE IRISH CLASSIC DOUBLE (4 X 25P E.W.) £4.25 "Running On" in WIN money and £1.25 in PLACE money, onto both horses 2,000 GUINEAS (4.10 Curragh, Sat.): 1.- PHOENIX OF SPAIN 1st 16/1 2. - Mohawk U/PL. 1,000 GUINEAS (4.25 Curragh, Sun.): 1. - PRETTY POLYANNA 2nd 9/1 2. - Just Wonderful U/P. I will now take you through the "settling" (calculating) process. The "virtual" Stake of £2, is made up of 4 x 25p WIN Doubles and 4 x 25p PLACE Doubles. Should JJ have gone into a High Street Betting Shop, she would have handed her £2 over the counter to the Cashier, The Betting Shop Settler would have calculated J.J's returns to be - £4.06. That calculated return would have been arrived at, in the following manner. In the "Fantasy" Competition, I'm using 1/4 Odds Place Structures. Both PHOENIX OF SPAIN and PRETTY POLYANNA, finished "In The Frame". An old fashioned Racing term, which meant that a horse finishing in the first 3 in a Race, would have it's name and Racecard number shown on a huge metal framed structure on the Racecourse, which could be viewed by all Racegoers. For the purposes of my Horse Racing"Fantasy" Competitions, I use a 1/4 Odds Place Structures, as it's easy to be a generous, "virtual" Bookmaker. For JENNYJANE to qualify for a WIN Double, both horses would have had to have won but PRETTY POLYANNA, was 2nd. The Betting Shop Settler would have calculated J.J's returns to be - £4.06. That calculated return would have been arrived at, in the following manner: PHOENIX OF SPAIN 16/1 placed at 1/4 the Odds becomes 16/4 (Denominator 1 x 4). PRETTY POLYANNA 9/1 placed at 1/4 the Odds becomes 9/4 (Denominator 1 x 4). You then arrive at the following calculation: 16/4 = 4/1 + 1 point(5) for (Stake Returned). 9/4 + 1 point(13/4 or 3.25) for (Stake Returned) x your stake (.25p) = 5 x 3.25 x .25p, which = £4.06. If JENNYJANE had placed this Bet with a Credit Bookmaker, her Winnings would've been £2.06. The Returns of £4.06 minus her Stake of £2 (which she wouldn't have paid for, as the Bet was on Credit). I have to admit a couple of my colleagues, when I worked for Sunderland Credit Bookmakers, could settle the "pants off me" and had been taught how to settle at William Hill's Settling School, well renowned throughout the Bookmaking Industry. I learnt how to settle, when I worked for James Lane, South London's leading Bookmaker at the time. James Lane had 80+ Betting Shops in South London, North Surrey and N.W.Kent but I worked in James Lane's Credit Office, in Brixton, South London. I learnt how to settle by using a Genie 247, settling machine. 247 is the number of Bets involved in a full cover combination of 8 Selections, all the way from Doubles, through to an 8/Fold Accumulator. I suppose the "Genie" was an early forerunner, of a Computer and it had the capacity to calculate the most complicated of Wagers. Dad and Mum, used to have some Saturday bets at our local Betting Shop in North Bromley, on the Kent/London border. Dad was brilliant at Mental Arithmetic. He was so good that the Manageress at the time, Lesley (who I later came to know when she became Personnel Manageress at James Lane's Head Office), would ask my Mother (Mum would be the one to place Bets and collect any returns), "What does Bert (Dad's name), make it"? Dad would give Mum a slip of paper, with their returns worked out to a fraction of a penny and would insist that Mum accept nothing less!! I know the average person in the Street, gets somewhat bamboozled, by Betting Odds!! But Betting Odds are only fractions. Odds of less than EVENS, e.g, 5/6, 4/7, 2/5, 2/7, etc, are Proper Fractions ( 2/7, where the Numerator 2 is less than the Denominator, 7) Odds of greater than EVENS, e.g, 5/4, 13/8, 9/4, 11/4, etc, are Improper Fractions (11/4, where the Numerator 11 is greater than the Denominator, 4). I hope this little "Settling" Tutorial has helped to strip away some of the mysteries of Betting Odds and Bookmaking. Regards, Tom.
  6. Or it could be a wobble. Even the Met Office were on board with the settled spell.
  7. Dry and mainly cloudy with a strengthening west to north-westerly wind gusting at around 35mph Temp 11.8c
  8. Oh dear....not looking anything like as good today, high pressure barely even making it next weekend, before being swept away by more unsettled muck. Like a winter downgrade all over again. Even be mighty noaa anomalies have got this one wrong.
  9. Today
  10. Light showers to kick day off and a very mild start Temp 10.4C, Barometer 1008mb rising, Wind F2 WSW, rainfall 0.3mm
  11. Thank you very mutch! I will looking up them as well. So it seems that there is no such collected european data summary regarding dew point. Anapa looks potential "winner", but Td28°C in France is suprising.... I thought continental climat can have the maximum between 20-25°C. Thank you again, but if someone could gather and share some other data regarding the topic, that would be greatfull as well.
  12. Well we chalked up another tornado, all be it brief and then went to a special place inside the hook of the storm. An area where the tornado is most likely to form. The rain curtains where moving rapidly form right, to left. Pretty cool. There were also millions of chasers and once again we saw a couple of wrecks. Video courtesy of James Menzies.
  13. Thought it might take more than two runs but GFS doesn’t build high pressure as much as yesterday (yesterday was getting to 1032mb), subsequently 850’s aren’t as high and by Sunday is slipping away with the squeeze from from advancing low pressure to north west, pretty ugly picture with another northerly don’t on the positive side any outcome like that will hopefully get watered down.
  14. Morning all, Having watched both YouTube clips of the Irish 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas, I was struck by how similar both victories were. Both PHOENIX OF SPAIN (2,000 G.). and HERMOSA (1,000 G.), led virtually from "pillar to post" (start to finish). It's unusual to see that in a Group 1 Race ( a Race of the highest standard). The most impressive example of which surely has to be FRANKEL's amazing all the way win, in the English 2,000 Guineas of 2011. Interestingly, Jamie Spencer (jockey of P.O.S) is renowned for having his mounts "off the pace" and then to deliver his ride with a devastating burst of speed and cut down the opposition, on the shadow of the winning post. But not on this occasion, he bounced PHOENIX OF SPAIN out of the stalls, to make all the running. Both came right away from their opposition, in the closing stages. Ryan Moore gave HERMOSA a superb ride. I see her astute Trainer (Aiden O'Brien), plans to send HERMOSA to Chantilly, for a raid on the Prix De Diane (French Oaks). Her running style suggests she should have no trouble in seeing out the distance, a little short of 1 and a half Miles. Also HERMOSA's breeding suggests she will appreciate, running over this distance. Her Sire is GALILEO - my favourite Stallion and leading light of Coolmore's breeding operation. You will notice many of Aiden O'Brien's runners in Group 1 middle distance Races, being Sired by Champion Sire, GALILEO. FRANKEL - may well go on to out perform his own Sire GALILEO, at Stud. Both these great champions trace back through SADLERS WELLS - to NORTHERN DANCER - This horse was the Sire that set the "ball rolling" for the Coolmore Breeding Operation and this bloodline is responsible for a multitude of Group 1 winners, from around the world. Regards, Tom.
  15. Yesterday
  16. Yes DRL I suspect to that ECM maybe overplaying Greenland heights, a decent GFS like you say and perhaps a bit messy around day 9/10, but as you will be aware it's a long way off. Hopefully some more positive runs later today.
  17. Nice movement on John Humphress feed. https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/
  18. Also quite clear and calm, with just a few odd thin looking clouds scattered about. Bang on 10*C.
  19. Certainly not too bad of a run from the GFS 18Z for the Summer weather enthusiasts. Compared to the ECMWF, the latest GFS does show a fair amount more power to the High Pressure system over the UK (most especially over Southern areas) later this week and, at times, into early next week. Not a full on U.K High, but nothing too disturbed either. A bit more changeable over North-Western UK areas, perhaps. Though the outlook does seem to get quite messy on that 210 hours chart you posted in your post above your recent one. Perhaps the GFS ate a bad burger at Model-Donald’s restaurant, while producing that at day 9. And I’m wondering if the ECMWF ate some bad burgers, too, with its strong love for the Greenland High in FI on that 12Z run. The 12Z ECMWF can’t be totally ignored, mind. But do suspect, particularly as what Summerstorm illustrated, it could very well be pumping up the Greenland High a bit too much.
  20. You didn’t miss much Paul. Crudvection didn’t clear in target area and nothing got going. All the action is further west in NM and CO but that was too far. Overnight Perryton TX and looking North tomorrow.
  21. I feel like a 1 man commentary team here.. Its a decent run, we do have a warm up followed by a cool down, but the signs of high pressure reasserting itself bringing warmer conditions again... Very much a rinse and repeat pattern.... All in all quite a good run.
  22. Dry and mostly clear with a lighter breeze after a fair windy spell during Sunday afternoon Temp 11.6c
  23. I think early June is a possibility now. It looks like the first hot spell will kick off next weekend, so this could lead to some potential thunderstorms.
  24. And with the BBC/MeteoGroup (using ECM) and Met Office lining up against GFS and Arpege regarding amounts of rainfall, I think we know the more likely outcome!
  25. 18z not bad out to 162hrs. Out to 210hrs and high pressure still the main player here.. This is for sure a better run than the earlier ECM..
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