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Moans, ramps and banter
TwisterGirl81 replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
WYorksWeather May is actually our sunniest month on average here oddly enough so wouldn’t surprise me, fingers crossed -
Moans, ramps and banter
TwisterGirl81 replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
richie3846 it’s fine, no worries, I understand I’m sorry I didn’t word it clearly enough. Hope you are getting some support hugs. -
TwisterGirl81 sorry, I jumped the gun there. I'm a little prone to that as I'm in recovery from complex PTSD. stainesbloke it sounds awful. At least in southern UK, days as cold as that in mid April are pretty rare.
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Moans, ramps and banter
TwisterGirl81 replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
richie3846 hey…cool your heels, if you read the part where I said gaslighting it was in reference to met office weather reporter saying we had a wet winter and I was thinking ‘and the rest’ it wasn’t a dig at you, relax ok -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Don replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
WYorksWeather Doesn't it just! -
Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Robert1981 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
From Cambridge to Norwich along the A14 /A11 corridor there as been some heavy showers but no lightning. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
WYorksWeather replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don Northern blocking always appears too late these days... -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Don replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wish we were seeing posts like this from you 2-4 months ago! -
It would seem that exceptionally warm temperatures always manage to make their way back, no matter what.....
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
WYorksWeather replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
minus10 It's sometimes useful to keep an eye on the wind plumes for the ECM I find. A bit more variation by the end, and the mean temperatures close to average (albeit accompanied by yet more rain). Of course a long way off and not to be taken seriously. I will be watching these in the coming days to see if we get any hints of a pattern change. At the moment it's just an increase in uncertainty. -
Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Thunders replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
friend in tittleshall heard thunder at about 17:20 -
Moans, ramps and banter
WYorksWeather replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
raz.org.rain April so far has been exceptional to achieve such a mild mean temperature with very uninspiring synoptics, boosted by a notable lack of cold nights in the first half, but also exceptional SSTs meaning we achieve higher daytime temperatures than you'd expect for the pattern. By May that option is really closed off I think. The CET min, mean and max for 1961-1990 averages are 6.7C, 11.1C, and 15.6C. If we wanted a notably warm month by modern standards, to average 2C or more about 1961-1990, you'd need an absolutely ridiculous set of south-westerlies. If we assume you split it maybe +2.5C by night and +1.5C by day, then you'd need minima of 9.2C and maxima of 17.1C. In a westerly pattern that's just ridiculous. A few days or a week of that kind of pattern is possible given the SSTs remain extremely high, but the odds of it maintaining for an entire month are essentially zero. At some point you'd either end up introducing something more southerly or south-easterly and going drier, sunnier and even warmer, or more westerly which would still be wet and dull most likely but also cooler. I suppose May 2022 is the closest as it was very warm, duller than average (80% of average sunshine), and near average for rainfall. I'm not sure there's ever been a notably warm May that was also both significantly wetter and duller than average across most of the country, though it definitely will have happened at particular stations depending on the prevailing pattern. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
minus10 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
WYorksWeather gefs 12z showing a clear 5 wave pattern which as i understand can stay around for some time... ...this was referred to in latest met 10 day trend as potentially a self sustaining pattern...problem is the uk is not in the best position if the pattern evolves as moduled keeping the cooler north easterly theme...at least the sun is getting stronger and the nights getting shorter still...as others have said this is not untypical for spring... -
April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
Roger J Smith replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Okay, I took a look at all cases of late April temperature drops relative to first fourteen days (only the warmest 8% of early Aprils were in first sample, granted they would stand a better than average chance of seeing a drop of 1.0+, just about the entire 50% below average first fourteen days would likely be excluded by seasonal trend alone) ... ... that leads to following table of all cases with drops of 1.5 C or more (a total of 51 out of 252 dropped by at least 0.1 C and 11 stayed level). ... YEAR ___ CET 1-14 _ CET 1-30 _ decrease 1778 ___ 10.7 ___ ____ 8.2 ___ ___ 2.5 1815 ____ 9.9 ___ ____ 8.1 ___ ___ 1.8 1884 ____ 8.9 ___ ____ 7.2 ___ ___ 1.7 1859 ____ 9.1 ___ ____ 7.5 ___ ___ 1.6 1906 ____ 8.9 ___ ____ 7.3 ___ ___ 1.6 1835 ___ 10.1 ___ ____ 8.6 ___ ___ 1.5 1981 ____ 9.3 ___ ____ 7.8 ___ ___ 1.5 This list adds only four cases (1884, 1859, 1906, 1981) to identify all drops of 1.5+, now working on a program that can isolate cases where second half of April was colder than Feb - march. I wouldn't be surprised to find one or two. -
As noted by a few on twitter tomorrow in Texas is looking quite interesting, high-extreme cape but with very low cape. Storms firing on a stationary cold front/dryline intersection, could be a few storms 'zippering' along the boundary and moving to the south west. Heres a comparison between the HRRR and Nam 3k, the Nam usually over moistens the atmosphere while the HRRRs overmixing bias dries things out so expect a middle between these models to verify High dewpoint values should lead to large cape profiles developing. This bigtime cape will lead to explosive updrafts But shear will really be on the low side with bulk shear of only 30 knots and below and 3km inflow of less than 20 knots. Having said that i wouldnt rule out a tornado threat, low level instability and vorticity (especially aided by the boundary) combined with the general large instability profiles could foster a tornado threat with a cell that can latch onto the boundary and slide down it. In fact, looking at this setup im reminded of Jarrell 1997, NO we are not going to get an F5 or anywhere close to that day, but looking at tornado archives the setup does bare some resemblance although cape will be weaker than in Jarrells case. Heres a few soundings, all taken from south Dallas, near Waco. HRRR Nam 3km I think i enjoy these days over high shear low cape, very mesoscale driven. Certain boundaries, pockets of vorticity or even surges in the RFD can lead to interesting things. Certain fail modes relate to storms quickly becoming OFD due to dry air, a more clustered mode or the weak shear overall stunting tornadogenesis/cell development Apart from the tornado threat large hail and wind damage are all possible. As said earlier the tornado risk tomorrow will be completely down to the mesoscale, or even storm scale environment. Regardless, doesn't look like too bad of a day to chase, these Texas high cape storms are always absolutely beautiful.
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richie3846 Yes, we’re certainly paying for a few very warm days last week, it’s absolutely baltic in that foul wind. Think it got to the dizzy heights of 9°C today, the joy is indescribable
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
WYorksWeather replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
raz.org.rain As always uncertainty does increase later on - I remember there was a point where a lot of people were thinking the January cold spell would keep getting extended. A turn before the end of the month is still very much possible but I think the next 7 days or so is pretty clearly locked in - drier than of late with temperatures averaging below average and varying from significantly below to near average. If no change in the output by the end of the weekend, then I think warm and dry weather will have to wait until May. -
carinthian That's seriously harsh!
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Daily weather observations - April 15th to April 21st
ThomasD27 replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
20:15 (17.04.24) Cool albeit sunnier than as of late, feeling pleasant in the sun between gusts of wind. Several cumulonimbi spotted throughout the day and a heavy shower with small hail. Temp: 6.9c Max temp: 11.1c Overnight minimum: 2.7c Humidity: 74% Rainfall: 2.4mm Barometer: 1018mb rising Wind: F2 WNW 4 Oktas (Sc, Cu humulis, Cu fractus)