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  2. We started the day in Colby Kansas and stopped for lunch in Dodge. We sat south of Dodge watching storms developing on the dryline to the west of us. We then went and chased down the Alva and towards Enid Oklahoma. We cut through the front edge of a severe storm and got into a position where we could see some beautiful structure. We stopped ahead of the storm in clear air for guests to take photos of the lightning and the got to a diner in Enid as the storm was hitting town.
  3. A rare warning of late issued for heavy rain showers 14:58 Today 20:00 Today Heavy showers bringing some travel disruption this afternoon and early evening. What to expect Spray and flooding on roads probably making journey times longer Bus and train services probably affected with journey times taking longer Heavy showers continue to develop, particularly near southern coasts and also more widely across Dorset and eastern parts of Somerset. A few places will see 15-20 mm of rain fall in less than an hour leading to surface water flooding on some roads. London & South East England Hampshire South West England Bath and North East Somerset Bournemouth Bristol Devon Dorset Gloucestershire North Somerset Poole Somerset South Gloucestershire Swindon Torbay Wiltshire Wales Blaenau Gwent Caerphilly Cardiff Monmouthshire Newport Torfaen https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-05-19&id=14a5e2ea-574d-4a93-9619-adae7a32bedd&details
  4. Light rain just started here with a bit of hail mixed in. Temp 16.9°C after a high of 20.6°C at 14:43
  5. It May as well be 1044 days away Karl still on a positive note the CFS is consistently showing some cracking summer weather going forward...
  6. cool damp but at least everywhere is resplendent in its spring greens !
  7. I like the look of this from the cfs 0z..and it's only 1044 hours away..roll on juillet!!
  8. Today
  9. Cracking cell going up on LE pantz stream https://warehamwx.co.uk/webcam.php
  10. Absolutely, Matt: everything's looking set, for a classic 2019-like pattern to develop!
  11. Actually getting extremely lucky! Sky looks dramatic inland but muggy/dry/bright on the seafront.
  12. Looking at the output today folks, I still think they do not have a firm grip on things!! ECM for instance seems to have the Azores high as a key player to our SW, while the GFS seems a little less inclined to build it in!! One thing I will say is the last few days were meant to be very showery, and to this point I have witnessed 1 light shower with it being actually fine and warm, and again today... So this is not bad weather at all considering we are meant to be under low pressure! I'm noticing from long range forecasts and exeter talk of a slumberous Atlantic going forward... So this would imply that settled Conditions moving forward could be more prolonged!! Certainly no signs of a 2012 repeat.... On the other hand, no signs of a 2018 repeat! But all in all, I think quite a favourable pattern moving forward, and to finish ECM not looking to bad for more southern parts of the UK for the bank holiday..
  13. The dominant forces are the arctic high, and remains of the PV lobe north scandinavia - these are putting pressure and forcing on any azores high ridge development, and thanks to a rather ineffectual jetstream it allows for slow moving patterns, with pressure neither very low or high in the vicinity of the UK, at this time of year it makes for very showery conditions, some places will escape any precipitation others may be caught out on a number of occasions. Temperatures varying close to the average maximum wise, a bit above in any lengthy settled sunny weather, minimums will be held up which will enable CET values to go a bit above average, but not especially so. A westerly flow may develop just in time for bank holiday weekend, with a frontal feature moving through, not particularly wet.. thereafter, a messy end to May.. showery most probably, near average temperatures. Good growing weather - all very normal.
  14. A lot of parameters falling into place for a significant severe weather event across NW Texas, western Oklahoma and perhaps into southern Kansas tomorrow, notably quality moisture return and strong heating building CAPE values into 3000s of j/kg CAPE range and strong directional shear as strong 70 kt SWly 500mb flow overlaps strong LLJ and backed surface upslope flow in response to lee trough developing over SE Colorado/OK Panhandle. However, SPC may hold back on going for High Risk for a few factors - perhaps the large scale forcing for ascent may not arrive in time to take advantage of diurnal / peak heating cycle + storm mode may quickly become linear and messy with embedded HP supercells rather then discrete storm mode. Also models break out quite a bit of morning/midday convection over W/NW Texas and western OK Panhandle to clear north - which could affect quick recovery of airmass for subsequent severe storm development along dryline expected to move east. No doubt there will be some tornadoes for sure, some strong and long tracked, but difficult atm to see exactly where to target until morning crapvection clears.
  15. Complete cloud cover here yet the suns been out for quite a while now. Feeling humid. 18.5°C
  16. I get what your saying, but isn’t that a bit of a oxymoron? Good but average? It’s been average, not good, not bad. Warm and sunny spells and cool, wet spells. The last bit I agree with, after our last few May’s it’s a big disappointment especially but it’s still not a bad May. I’d love a bit more sun and I’m hoping the last week comes up trumps but it’s not bad by no means, and the CET would be higher if it wasn’t for the chilly nights in the first half.
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