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Moans, ramps and banter
*Stormforce~beka* replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Alderc 2.0 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Was it reallY meant to rain this much today? -
As with other parts of the region, a poor showery day and certainly worse than anything forecast. Wall to wall cloud until lunchtime then a few minutes sunshine here and there during the afternoon and as seems to have been the case throughout April, a cool feel to things. A couple of months earlier and it would have been a winter spell to tell the grandkids about but as usual, no such luck from this part of the planet and week after week, month after month of mediocrity is as good as it gets with anything remotely warm and dry being continually just beyond the reliable. even this weekends warming (sorry approaching average) trend is looking like early next week now.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
*Stormforce~beka* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lee Notts Expect the worst hole for the best ... -
Moans, ramps and banter
*Stormforce~beka* replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Daniel*ours has been on and off today too -
In Absence of True Seasons The average temperature in September is 20.2c so it's hardly a waste. Typical September weather would be pleasant for most.
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Moans, ramps and banter
In Absence of True Seasons replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
B87 I feel like most people would prefer the sort of weather we get in September nowadays, in April or May. I certainly would. 20c+ weather in Sept feels like a tad of a waste, especially in the latter half of the month. -
Moans, ramps and banter
In Absence of True Seasons replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
CryoraptorA303 indeed. In my childhood, which was the 90s and very early 00s, August was always the "king" summer month. The month where things were generally warmest, sunniest and driers. We used to go on a family trip every August to Devon, and in my mind's eye it was generally sunny and warm most years, enough so for me as a child to swim in the sea, my parents would lounge about on the beach etc, sometimes my dad would get the kayak out and I'd sit in the back. There's plenty of photos I've seen of those holidays too and most of the photos show sunny weather, everything very vibrant. If I had been a child in the 2010s to now, that decade of summer holidays in August would show a very different picture. July tends to be the "king" summer month nowadays, August a disappointment, and then a final blast arriving in Sept. -
April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Will be interesting comparing the 1-14 CET and the 15-30 CET. The last couple of days will bring a warm up, but certainly the 15-28 mean will be comparably below the 1-14 mean. -
midlandsun My parents are in the Midlands.
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April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
The PIT replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Sunny Sheffield down to 9.0C +0.6C above average. Rainfall up to 74.1mm 132.1% of the monthly average. Looking like we will get an average month now in regards to temperatures if the afternoon run is correct. -
April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Turning into a notably cool spell, and we could end below 9.5 degrees. -
April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
Frigid replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yes, my prediction is looking better by the day. Though I went a bit too overboard for rainfall. This cool spell has gone on for longer than expected, and doesn't look all that mild until the beginning of May. -
Its been fine and dry here so far today, we seem to have a shower shield around us. No evidence of any rain in early hours either. Just checked the radar and surprised at the amount of shower activity given how fine it is here. Sometimes you strike lucky, indeed we've enjoyed a run of dry days since Saturday. It is chilly air, lots of sun but failed to reach 11 degrees.
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Moans, ramps and banter
CryoraptorA303 replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
B87 I remember being quite shocked at how relatively low September's average rainfall and it's sunshine was, until I actually thought about the last few years and realised how many of them could have plausibly been Augusts. It makes sense as well with the subtropical ridge's growing influence on our climate, as it's at its northernmost extent in early September, so it likely prevents a lot of showery weather and only lets in the occasional strong storm fuelled by the highest oceanic temps of the year. You can often see the influence of the subtropical ridge in August and September over Kent, and to a lesser extent the SE, it's often drier than the surrounding region no matter what. I refer to this as being "Kented" The Met Office has stated that summer-type synoptics in Autumn are likely to become more common over the century due to climate change: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2023/2023_05_september_heatwave.pdf "As our climate continues to change, it will tend to further increase the likelihood, duration and intensity of heatwave events experienced across the UK. Met Office research[1] has also shown that climate change is expected to increase the frequency of summer-type weather regimes during the Autumn in the UK." This will presumably increase the number of September annual maxima (which are considerably more common in some Csb climates like northern Spain than here) and the severity of heatwaves in September and October in general. Makes you wonder if in the near future we could see a September so hot that it ends up as one of the ten hottest months ever recorded. - Today
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Since our old friend, the late season SSW, has annihilated our Spring yet again, give me your best & most suitable attempts on what it really abbreviates to! I'll get started- Sudden Spring Wrecker Satanic Sodden Weather Soul Sucking Wretch (If SSW was an entity) Sunshine Suppressed Wasteland Sabotaging Spring Wickedly
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CryoraptorA303 September is now the month with the fewest wet days on average, though not the driest in total amount. More late summer thunderstorms and occasional hurricane remnants probably causing the increase in heavier rainfall on fewer days. I think we will also see a 20c October in the next 2 decades. Current warmest Octobers by av max: 1995: 18.3c 2022: 18.3c 1969: 18.2c 2011: 18.1c 2023: 18.1c 1959: 17.8c 2005: 17.8c 2006: 17.8c
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Lee Notts replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Bats32 last summer was combined with an el nino though.. Did that play a part in summer last year going down hill in mid July? That won't be a factor this year. -
Moans, ramps and banter
CryoraptorA303 replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
These two are just funny to me. Both times the August and September could have plausibly been switched. Nature was really trolling the schoolchildren in these two years In all seriousness, the growing summer-ness of September and the recent decline of August is noticeable in the long-term climatology. September's overall rainfall has declined quite a lot since 61-90 in the SE, while August's has increased a little. -
CryoraptorA303 The most noticeable thing of all is that in the Heathrow record, there have been 12 Septembers sunnier than the preceeding August. No big deal, until you look at the years in question. 1958, 1968, 1971, 1979, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2021. What did happen once a decade on average is now happening almost half of the time since 2006.