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  2. Morning Kilties. Horrible wild night here until about I think 4am, then things went quiet. Now very still, no wind and no rain. But not poked wee nose ootside yet so canny see what's going on.
  3. It continues to be unsettled and windy over the weekend
  4. The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight Over the next 24 hours the complex trough to the north west re-orientates to a neutral alignment as it moves east and merges with the trough to the north. On the surface this translates to frequent squally heavy showers, with hail and thunder in the mix, through today, which will be mainly concentrated in western regions, but during this evening a further concentrated area of heavy shower activity will track south east down the country courtesy of the occlusion, But the main feature will be the strengthening wind in south western and western regions through this afternoon and evening, reaching severe gale force in coastal areas, before transferring to the east coast later in the night. The veering wind will also introduce colder air and wintry weather in northern Scotland Still windy for a time on Monday in northern and eastern coastal regions with frequent showers, wintry in the north, but the winds slowly easing though a rather cold day of sunny intervals elsewhere Over Monday night rapid cyclogenisis is once again taking place near the left exit of the jet out in the Atlantic and the fronts associated with the deep low near Iceland will sweep across the country on Tuesday accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds The low drifts east on Wednesday so very windy over the northern half of the country, particularly Scotland, where frequent showers of the wintry variety will occur. Also very showery in the south courtesy of a trough running around in the circulation. By Thursday the low is filling and drifting north but further frontal systems are winging east over the UK on the very strong jet bringing more rain
  5. Today
  6. Raining here now and after slowly rising the temperatures dropped a bit. 10.7°C
  7. Already up to 7.2mm of rain. I don't know why, but it feels like ages since we had some decent rainfall.
  8. I simply take into account what all models show and with Whatever is shown by Arome Arpege gfs I will take into account. I'm not completely disagreeing with what your saying though and I take that into account when I post I check all models apart from that UKv one suppose I should buy access to it. I am aware that Arpege and Arome can sometimes overdo wind gusts but they are usually pretty good having said that if they tone speeds down in the next 12-18 hours I will mention it accordingly. Anyway the high resolution AROME updated forecast does continue to agree somewhat with the Gfs for tomorrow night. Not saying its correct at all but there's still a risk of stormy weather for inland regions too as well as the usual coastlines.
  9. Which is fine . I think @Mapantz was just pointing it out. For what it's worth, I would've thought if there was any chance of 60mph gusts inland more would've been made of it than what's been said.
  10. AROME is renowned for overcooking wind speeds/gusts. The GFS has the LP too far North. It doesn't match the UKV, the GEM or the FAX charts. The GFS is showing stronger winds over Ox/Bucks than it is in Cornwall lol I bet I don't get much over 40mph. Interesting to note though, this day last year here, saw 41mph.
  11. But you can't say that when the event in question hasn't even occurred. The Gfs has been consistent too with this as has the Arpege. The Met Office warning not reflecting it doesn't mean its wrong it's just simply to them less likely. I can name several times that these models have been correct and the met have been left looking silly. I think its always important to show all scenarios so people aren't suprised or not suprised when it occurs. Arome and Arpege both show a similar scenario to the Gfs so it can't be discounted. Not having a go Mapantz I'm just explaining what I've observed in past experience that's not to say they are wrong on tomorrow ofcourse. PS: i'll be interested to know what readings you get tomorrow night.
  12. I know you're only showing the output, but that output is way over the top. If there was likely to be 60mph gusts that far inland, the Met Office warning would cover much of England and Wales. The UKV pretty much matches the current warning.
  13. I'm Simply showing model output I've posted on other models too and Data wrong why? UKv model is one of many that should be taken into account. There's been a few situations when met office miss aspects as reflected by some of your posts in the regional thread with some warning being unnecessary etc.
  14. 60mph inland? There's something wrong with that GFS data. The latest run has downgraded wind speeds slightly too, which is reflected in the Met Office forecast.
  15. It's been such a poor decade for December cold. It started with one hell of a bang. I know Decembers aren't noted for much in the way of anything too severe anyway of course but that said it has been a poor decade. Very little seasonal xmas weather. I know 80s Decembers weren't great either from a cold pov but at least decent cold spells in other parts of a good number of 80s winters made up for them,unlike nowadays.
  16. Welcome back You have missed epic discussions What's your favourite river
  17. Yes, December 2001 was colder than average and sunny. Many places saw snow between Christmas and New Year (not me!) and the cold weather lasted into the first week of January. Unfortunately, however, the rest of the winter was a stinker with largely mild and wet weather and little in the way of snow.
  18. I'm not sure I follow the argument. You have three agencies now naming the storms - UK, Ireland, Netherlands (new for this year). Storms affect each country differently or not at all. I would suggest your dispute is best aimed at the UK media. "90 MPH KILL STORM *NAME* ON THE WAY" I like the naming system personally. It makes a lot of sense and I think it works well even if warning systems are different.
  19. Damn, I've just recently been listening to a lot of their stuff. "Greedy" Smith was the band's keyboardist and one of three or four singer-songwriters in the band. It was him who wrote and sang their biggest hit "Live It Up" (their only hit in the UK, which gives them the unfair reputation as one-hit wonders).
  20. Gfs take on storm Atiyah more in line with Arpege in bringing widespread gusts of 50-60mph over many places west at first then for more central southern and Eastern regions later in the night tomorrow.
  21. Light rain accompanied by a strong south westerly wind Temp 9.3c
  22. Yesterday
  23. You could always take a winter vacation to escape the dreary UK winter. I keep meaning to do it myself but fear when I do, the UK will experience a severe winter!
  24. Yes he said February could be our main event for winter this year but I'm sure that late December was also mentioned as having a chance for some cold also. It would just be nice to get some cold in for once over Christmas, even a frost but obviously anything white would be lovely. Anyway the Ensembles for central England are painting a rather chilly picture with snow chances throughout, so there is some interest, better than last December for sure.
  25. scary stuff @Ross B hope you are okay. Welcome back @Cheggers Some interest for those of you in the west tomorrow morning (roughly 9 am) through tomorrow afternoon with some decent CAPE moving in off the Atlantic bringing the risk of thundery showers with hail. A very rough map from me @Mr Frost might be some for you
  26. I remember it well, quite a cold month too if I remember rightly. Lots of cold, clear frosty days with sparkling blue sky
  27. According to his winter blog, GP sees February as being the best opportunity for colder weather in north west Europe, with December and January largely cyclonic with average to above average temperatures. However, that's not to say we won't see something interesting develop in late December of course. Worth bearing in mind that December 2000 had a very cold final week which masked an otherwise mild month. The CET for that month was 5.8C. Imagine how mild that month would have been otherwise!
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