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  2. Dry and calm with mostly clear skies Temp 4.5c
  3. The northerly signal has more or less gone now but I always thought that was an outside chance in any case. What does seem to be a trend is for high pressure to stick around the UK for longer so a dry spell especially for southern areas could be on the cards. How much cloud becomes trapped under the high is the uncertainty at the moment
  4. Yesterday
  5. Clear and cold here, we are on 1.6°C after a high of 9.2°C today. Some spotty showers to the west of Salisbury, look hit and miss on the radar
  6. Slightly better for here still dont think the northerly is being handled particularly well and probably plenty more runs before it gets ironed out one way or another and still praying that the MJO can go into phase 7 as strongly as possible (still a split within the models on the strength)
  7. Absolutely and I'm sure many on here would not sniff at a repeat performance this year after the winter we've had to endure so far!
  8. Ha Ha neighbours with me and @CreweCold welcome to the snow Drome C.S
  9. It really is tough for coldies so far this Winter. Again as the latest GFS shows the NH jet flow is so flat with little ridging anywhere keeping the cold bottled up above 60n much of the time.The high will at least give a mostly dry few days with some night frosts and daytime temperatures near normal so at least feeling a bit more seasonal.
  10. I'm amazed that there was laying snow arrived back never seen any snow at the foot of Slieve Gallion so took it as another no show never seen any reports on donegal weather channel or NI Weather and flood Advisory Service wonder did @Sperrin get any there was a heavy organised band of percipation that went through just before lunchtime i think tho.
  11. Perhaps should correct myself I was meaning through winter months December onwards and was from a local perspective. Yes there was flooding in November and we have been lucky not to see any more given how wet things have been.
  12. The mean at 192 is a remarkable representation of the last few NWP op runs so must now be a heavy favourite. However, there is a stonking ridge being thrown up to the North West by 254. There is likely to be some dumpings thrown up similar to Dec 1990 in FI on some members with a mean like that.
  13. Yes cold despondent snow lovers should take some comfort from what happened in Feb 05. There had been 8 long years in the main when the UK had failed to see long drawn sustained spell of easterlies in winter.. last time was Jan 97. Winter 00-01 delivered a bit but not properly until March. Dec 01 tried too but failed..
  14. I’m sure the residents of fishlake will be delighted to hear there has been no flooding this winter!
  15. Yes I was conscious I put 04-05 in the same category, in the end it delivered snow and cold, but up to this point apart from a nw flow at Christmas it had been very mild. Indeed Jan 05 was very mild. Would be good to know factors behind the pattern change in Feb.. was it ssw induced? It was abrupt and a shock to see long drawn easterlies and heralded a shift to a more buckled jet in the main right through until winter 13-14.. sometimes we were locked on warm side I.e winter 06-07 and 07-08, but more often cold side especially in summer, exception 06 and 13. Of the other years none really delivered any sustained cold rest of winter just the odd fleeting glance. March and April tended to offer colder synoptics.
  16. The ECM extended has been steadfastly predicting a flat pattern for quite a number of days now....looks like it’ll be sadly proved correct again. Before we know it time will be running out....it’s going to be 2/3 of winter gone with literally nothing happening at all. Could be going near the top of the hall of shame at this rate.
  17. From a lot of observations over the years I am sure we will see appreciable snow at some point in the next three months although perhaps not in winter but early to mid spring when sea temperatures are lowest and north and east winds become more frequent. Remembering too that we are really not that far from the Arctic circle.
  18. Upper strat charts are a stonker on this run though, im going for a technical strat warming but in the second half of february.
  19. Got down to 1.7C then shot up suddenly as the only shower in the area crossed over. Dropping again. Methinks an icy start tomorrow.
  20. Completely agree.. look at the 240 hrs range and each following run shows something different at same timescale
  21. I’m going to have my annual moan about the GFS and its longer range output ! Why do they bother when each run has something entirely different .
  22. The Sierra Nevada are 11,000 feet high so they get dumpings quite often, in fact I took a cycling trip to the highest peak back in mid september and we had to turn back as they had snow even back then and we didn't have the clothing for that sort of weather, back at the coast it was 28 degrees and sunny
  23. Well the vortex migrating to Siberia has been well and truly dropped by the GFS. This signal was huge a few days ago yet it has now completely disappeared.
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