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  2. Fair dos. I wasn’t getting you to like anything just pointing out when you said like ‘variety’ yet your downbeat when it’s not raining or storming for a few days. anyhoo.. the rains back tomorrow and your definitely living in the right country for it
  3. Yes that mean ECM day ten is a belter , hope the trend continues. . oh and let’s not forget the op was a brilliant run too . But we can do better
  4. Stick to the London graph, if that is good then further North will only be better.
  5. The only thing i can say this evening is. 'In ECM we trust'!!
  6. You’d think the mean is made from on a few similar ENS charts , but to get this from 50 is crazy - there must be some really good grouping you’d think. The De bilt 15 day chart will be interesting to see, as to where we go from the 10 day mean!!
  7. I've just finished watching an old Episode of "Hustle" (A series about a "motley" group of con artists, who pull of a string of daring and intricate "stings"). This Episode was about a Racehorse that had no ability at all but the "scam" was to sell the Racehorse for £100K. A Grey Horse with reasonable form was painted Brown to resemble the Horse being sold for £100K. It reminded me of the time the Credit Bookmakers I worked for at the time, got caught a little by the "scam". It was the August Bank Holiday of 1974 and I was working for James Lane, leading South London Bookmaker, in their Credit Office in Brixton, South London. I'll let the Daily Express take up the story. Fortunately the Reporter isn't Nathan Rao and the account is factually, accurate: https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/503092/Story-behind-the-plot-to-trick-a-bookies-40-years-ago Because it was a Bank Holiday and there were around 15 Race Meetings around the Country, it was relatively easy to place the Bets, as they were "mixed up" with all the other multitude of Bets, for all the other Races on that Day. We pretty much escaped the worst of the liabilities, that Day. In 1974, James Lane moved from their rundown location in Brixton to brand new Offices, just off of Lordship Lane, East Dulwich, S.E.London. The Company weren't going to be so lucky, regarding another famous Betting Scam, which took place on the Spring Bank Holiday Weekend of 1978, at Rochester Greyhound Stadium. I'll let the Greyhound Star, take up the story: http://greyhoundstar.co.uk/remember-may-2/ On the Spring Bank Holiday Monday of May 29th, myself and three other colleagues arrived in the Office, expecting a quiet Morning, before the Afternoons Racing began. How wrong could we be? We had 20 Telephone Lines in our Credit Office but early on a Bank Holiday Monday, we'd only expect a couple of phones to be ringing with our Credit Clients putting early Bets on, in a bid to benefit from taking "Early Odds" about Horses running in the Afternoon. James Lane also owned around 80 Betting Shops, South of the River Thames and one of the responsibilities of the Head Office Staff (including Yours Truly), was to "check" any Bet that had been placed in one of our Betting Shops, that had Returns of over £200. Imagine our surprise when around half of the Telephone Lines, "lit up" all at once. These calls were from the Managers of our Betting Shops, wanting a "check" on a Greyhound Bet that had been placed in their Betting Shop, on the preceding Saturday. Every one of those Bets, followed a "pattern" As stated in that Report of the Betting "Coup", the Bets involved 2 Greyhounds, Leysdown Pleasure (won at 33/1) and Leysdown Fun (won at 4/1). The Bet involved 3 x £10 Win Doubles and a £10 Win Treble. A random 3rd Greyhound was put in the Bet, to try and boost the winnings but in most cases this 3rd Greyhound, was a loser. But the damage had already been done. A £10 Double on a 33/1 and a 4/1 Winner, gives a Return of £1,700. In those cases where the 3rd Greyhound won, the Returns came to around £8K. James Lane had been truly "stung". As stated in the Greyhound Star report, BOLA (a Bookmakers advisory Organisation), advised it's Members to withhold Payment, pending an Inquiry. It later transpired that the Betting Coup, involved a "gang" in nearby Peckham and we heard, included one of the "Great Train" Robbers. Once we decided to withhold Payment we started getting the doors of our Betting Shops, glued up with "Super Glue". If the "gluing" had taken place overnight, our Managers couldn't open their Shops for trading. On occasion the "gluing" took place during the Afternoon, which meant that Managers couldn't close their Shops up. As you can imagine, this caused untold chaos!! We even had the Shutters of our Head Office in East Dulwich glued up, on a number of occasions.!! We also received numerous threatening Phone calls, from the individuals that had placed the Bets. James Lane's liabilities were around £25K and much less than some Bookmaking Outlets. A very clever Betting "Coup" but not sure that we'd "Paid Out", by the time the Company sold out, in 1983. Regards, Tom.
  8. Stonking Ecm 12z ensemble mean from around day 7 if cold is your thing, especially cold further north with snow likely..the mean is actually better than the operational longer term...fingers crossed there's a taste of winter / the Arctic on the way!!!!!!!❄
  9. Update on the latest Ozone picture... Guns loaded and in position A1, as the next tropospheric planetary waves of Ozone enter the atmosphere above the basin - Fire... Let see what happens over the next few days. MIA
  10. Mean mid Atlantic ridge slightly better with slightly colder air further South than 0z.
  11. Day 6 mean pretty good, but the DET prob on the colder end - however look at day 10s mean, that is mighty impressive From next Thurs it’s looking to be pretty chilly again, below normal I imagine anyway with frost and wintry showers in places - according the the ECM anyway
  12. UK winters for the years '69-'70, '76-'77, '83-'84, based on the MetOffice CETs. Cool-cold months experienced in the UK during those winters. 1969 -110th coldest December - 3.3 1970 -105th coldest February - 2.9 1970 -56th coldest March - 3.7 1970 -60th coldest April - 6.7 1976 -47th coldest December - 2.0 1977 -133rd coldest January - 2.8 1977 -102nd coldest April - 7.2 1983 -289th coldest December - 5.2 1984 -128th coldest February - 3.3 1984 -125th coldest March - 4.7 1984 -44th coldest May - 9.9
  13. Yes that is generally true but it is not really possible to work out what 'may' happen based on one chart both in the sequence and just the 500-1000 surface. It is preferrable to have other charts also through the sequence, especially the 300 mb flow.
  14. It's not that unusual with a deepening wave tracking ENE. I suspect gales and heavy rain would be more of a worry if it ever came to fruition
  15. Sounds like what most of the GEFS ensembles showed, so a real possibility
  16. Generally though the more round shaped the trough is, the less likely it is to slide and when its negatively tilted and more disrupted, surely that is an indicator the jet is on a NW to SE axis?
  17. Its a better chart but its almost back to square one with that great big spoiler trough in the wrong place again.
  18. I just hope the DET has support from the EC ENS, who knows it may be a mild outlier with
  19. Bolton have been given a 5-point deduction for failing to fulfil fixtures against Brentford and Doncaster. The deduction is, however suspended for 18 months. Bolton have also been fined £70,000 with 50% suspended for 18-months
  20. tci=36.7 billion watts neutron count=9.8%=high kp index=3=quiet
  21. You need to see the jet stream for the same time to be able to make any real decision, even then of course things may well change. Fun to theorise though.
  22. Unusual we are colder than you up there.I have a mate in West Kingsdown and as a rule of thumb he is normally 0.5-1 degree colder owing to altitude.Really felt like mid January today!!
  23. It seems to me that GFS has a bias for introducing the Azores High, it being our seasonal norm in early/mid December, in recent years anyway . At some point there will be a tipping point when we will know either way, it may just be the case that we stay just on the right side of things for it to remain cold but not very cold, like what we are experiencing now. If ECM is on the money though it could be a very interesting time as we go into December and winter proper. Personally I have a feeling that the GFS will switch back to cold pretty soon, but can we get the Azores high to play ball and shove off the scene completely, thats the big question.
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