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  2. Snow falling on top of the Lickey Hills this afternoon (close to 1000 feet / 300m). Very close to settling for a while. Video
  3. Hopefully the 144 hour chart upgrades from yesterday!!this saga may not be over yet!!
  4. Have a look at the ensemble members dropping below the 0 line for December.. Here is a box and whisker plot Simon posted representing the shift from the EC Model from Nov > Dec.. The thing that caught me out was this box forecast time 2020-01-01 - which anyone in their right mind would load in and say cool - this is January, however due to the way the data is encoded this is reflective of the month prior, in this case December.
  5. Milder than yesterday (max 2.7C) here but feeling cold in the brisk at times North Easterly breeze. Max 5.7C with a min of -1.5C. Mostly sunny with just a few clouds in late afternoon though staying dry. Interestingly the 6th to 13th November is one of the Buchan cold spells. These are where he measured temperatures over a period of years against a linear graph of changing temps between Summer and Winter in the UK and found they were below on those dates. There were six cold and three warm spells identified. The November spell was certainly below this year. His next one is 7th to 14th Feb but in between he has a mild period from 3rd to 14th December.
  6. Horrific in Doncaster. I'm not far from the floods and its atrocious, worse than last week in how heavy it is, key is how long it goes on.
  7. Having said all this, it’s been hammering it down the last few hours. A thoroughly horrible walk home from work.
  8. tci=38.0 billion watts neutron count=8.9%=high
  9. Looks to me like these are for 6 months and very little chance of an SSW - unless i have totally misinterpreted the data.
  10. Well done At about 7 pm it suddenly turned to rain after about 4 or so hours of heavy drifting snow,the centre of the depression suddenly moved North,allowing milder air into the South and a rapid thaw. The original forecast was for the centre of the low to stay in the channel,so a pretty poor forecast,by morning only the drifts were left the level snow cover had gone.
  11. Taken by me today. Vague convective structure beneath the stable mid level cloud!
  12. Now up to 35mm and we aren't even in the MetOffice yellow warning zone. I think the rain has been further north than forecast.
  13. Also known as the place where the traffic jam to your holiday destination starts
  14. Okay so the plots from last night looking at January >>> scrub that... these are for next month Thanks to Simon Lee for messaging to highlight as the way the dataset presents on Copernicus caught him out too!
  15. I realise that this isn't particularly interesting as lowland England has also seen snow this week, but Valence, at just 100m in the Rhone valley and known as where the south of France starts, has seen an unusual November snowfall.
  16. GEFS 12Z again quite a few others with weaker signs of warming. Look forward to the winter forecast @Catacol best of luck @Mike Poole another single run going for a reversal of the zonal winds again a CMC / GEM ensemble member
  17. My wife said there was some thunder earlier this afternoon but nothing showed up on the storm radar. At first I wondered if it was something else but Beverley Lass also has also reported thunder and lightning We are about 25 miles from Beverley so obviously some convection in the rain band.
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