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B87 aha ha maybe not quite as barren, I still like to see some greenery. Lots of sun, 25c and overnight thunderstorms and rain will suit me fine. i didn’t realise that it was based off a computer game? I don’t play computer games, not even candy crush

Colorado isn't actually a bad place to chase, it seems to rarely fail, Ijust that it doesn't typically seem to have high end events but if you want some good dusty pictures like old tornado pictures, go there.

CryoraptorA303 A June version of May 2018 would be warm and very sunny. Not a bad month at all. Both June and August are both well overdue massive sunshine totals, like 300 hours each. Would still only have us at average for the year so not too outrageous to ask for.

*Stormforce~beka* if you have time to go on your phone you have time for tv! Kids should have been settled hours ago

TwisterGirl81 TwisterGirl81 I need to watch that. Love the games. Could do with a summer that resembles the Mojave Wasteland.

I've missed chase days like this so much, dryline days are just the best, temps in the upper 20s low 30s, beautiful cumulus towers with a deep blue sky and some absolutely amazing chase terrain, no other place in the world like the plains.

Going from one extreme to another, rather not tbh.. Wouldn't mind a few weeks in the mid teens with endless days of sun.

TwisterGirl81 No ... I'm still trying to get kids to sleep. I don't get free time for TV!

Reed live for todays conditional threat of strong tornadoes and large hail Some tornado warned storms already around. Development underway in the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles as well as Western Kansas.

raz.org.rain god I hope so I sit here on the sofa with a throw over me, candles lit and the heating on with a hot cup of black tea….feels like autumn! Has anyone been watching ‘Fallout’ on Amazon prime? Just about to watch 2nd episode, pretty good so far.

12.5C and 70mm please

raz.org.rain Hopefully this somehow escalates to the earliest 30°C on record, as my hair is now starting to get annoyingly long and I'd like a haircut Would also be just in time for a family wedding.

CryoraptorA303 some positive signs for May at least

Metwatch I've been keeping half an eye on this in recent model runs. Certainly an unusual synoptic set up playing out on the ECM. In theory there could be modified plume storms drifting in from the North Sea, which isn't something that happens very often at all!

Kentspur A high anomaly to our west in May would usually bring a chill but bright/sunny northerly airflow, western parts would see the sunniest conditions including the Lake District. In such set ups the air is often sparkling clear and indeed brings superb conditions here. Obviously troughs can become embedded in true arctic shots but rarely potent in May, perhaps a few showers. Even better is a more NE flow that can bring warmth to the west whilst the east is plagued by cloud, a common set up in May. I always say mid April to mid June best time to visit the Lake District. Back to the models, its all a bit unclear how next week will pan out, signs of the atlantic trough reappearing to the west to pull in a cloud dankfest to west parts once the milder easterly is out of the way, then we await to see if an atlantic ridge develops again or we maintain more notable heights direct to the north. Either way no heatwave on the cards, nor deluge, all quite benign typical stuff for this juncture in the year.

raz.org.rain I'd say it's August and September even that have the highest chance of seeing the warmest and driest weather of the season. The post-Super Nino and SSW are conspiring to make this year heavily backended. Really we're just waiting for the affects of the late season SSW to wear off for the wetness to stop, depressions in the Atlantic as of late are getting much weaker than they were in early April and before. June itself won't be special, I could see it being a bit of a May 2018 even with the thunderiness angle, July might have the first notable heatwave of the year and, assuming May isn't, could be the first drier than average month for most since June last year (0_0!), and then August will be the hottest month of the year with the final big (and possibly hottest, climate change is coming for the 1906 record) heatwave in September. What happens after that is heavily up to what happens with ENSO, as ENSO-neutral after this point would likely mean continued backendedness which means a dry, probably sunny autumn, while a new La Nina event (can we just not have neutral for a while please?) would likely see the backending stop by mid-October and we could actually see a colder than average Nov/Dec.

The hv6999jxe blog is going for a "decent summer" as they describe it; "I expect UK summer 2024 to be a “decent” summer, as I’ve eluded to many times on social media over the last few months. However, I expect it to start off as a bit of a slow burner, more especially June, with July and August the 2 months I would expect the warmest weather. I also believe we’ll see a significant increase in thundery plumes bringing plenty of thunderstorms up from the near continent this coming Summer!" I'm inclined to agree. I don't expect a repeat of last July/August as a strong El Niño won't be a factor. I get the impression that a neutral or even a rapid flip to La Niña could actually help to flip us into a drier and warmer pattern this summer, considering we're already stuck in a wet pattern.

Mainly cloudy with some sunny spells later,a few light showers,max 8 deg,min 2 deg

In Absence of True Seasons Any good weather in September I would welcome with open arms given it’s in the Atlantic half of the year. Anything to delay the onset of the depressing season.

Convective Outlook️ Falling mid-level GPH and surface pressure overnight with some cooling of the uppers with lower level temperatures staying more level should allow for the western edge of a Theta-E ejection to force a few showers overnight on Friday. Surface bands of vorticity should eject westward from northern France from a frontal system into a strong low-level lapse-rate area forcing potentially 100 J/KG Of 3CAPE but with weak deep-layer shear and high saturation the lightning risk is rather low and limited to the southwest and central southern coast.

Oh, for the expansion of the Hadley cycle ,

jamesthemonkeh How would the Lake district fare in this set up still chilly? Im off there and also a day trip to the West Coast of Scotland im guessing better than here in the SE closer to the high? I always hear the NW is best in May and first half of June

24 April 2024 Time-Lapse

Catbrainz Indeed GFS 12 has thrown out something more positive but there's no cross-model agreement yet. It's something to keep an eye on.