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  1. Yesterday
  2. Yes DRL I suspect to that ECM maybe overplaying Greenland heights, a decent GFS like you say and perhaps a bit messy around day 9/10, but as you will be aware it's a long way off. Hopefully some more positive runs later today.
  3. Nice movement on John Humphress feed. https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/
  4. Also quite clear and calm, with just a few odd thin looking clouds scattered about. Bang on 10*C.
  5. Certainly not too bad of a run from the GFS 18Z for the Summer weather enthusiasts. Compared to the ECMWF, the latest GFS does show a fair amount more power to the High Pressure system over the UK (most especially over Southern areas) later this week and, at times, into early next week. Not a full on U.K High, but nothing too disturbed either. A bit more changeable over North-Western UK areas, perhaps. Though the outlook does seem to get quite messy on that 210 hours chart you posted in your post above your recent one. Perhaps the GFS ate a bad burger at Model-Donald’s restaurant, while producing that at day 9. And I’m wondering if the ECMWF ate some bad burgers, too, with its strong love for the Greenland High in FI on that 12Z run. The 12Z ECMWF can’t be totally ignored, mind. But do suspect, particularly as what Summerstorm illustrated, it could very well be pumping up the Greenland High a bit too much.
  6. You didn’t miss much Paul. Crudvection didn’t clear in target area and nothing got going. All the action is further west in NM and CO but that was too far. Overnight Perryton TX and looking North tomorrow.
  7. I feel like a 1 man commentary team here.. Its a decent run, we do have a warm up followed by a cool down, but the signs of high pressure reasserting itself bringing warmer conditions again... Very much a rinse and repeat pattern.... All in all quite a good run.
  8. Dry and mostly clear with a lighter breeze after a fair windy spell during Sunday afternoon Temp 11.6c
  9. I think early June is a possibility now. It looks like the first hot spell will kick off next weekend, so this could lead to some potential thunderstorms.
  10. And with the BBC/MeteoGroup (using ECM) and Met Office lining up against GFS and Arpege regarding amounts of rainfall, I think we know the more likely outcome!
  11. 18z not bad out to 162hrs. Out to 210hrs and high pressure still the main player here.. This is for sure a better run than the earlier ECM..
  12. More eye candy for early next week, not to be taken literally of course
  13. Cloudy with brief sunny intervals and a spell of light rain around lunchtime. Maximum 19.3, minimum 13.4. Wind light W.
  14. There's more positives than negatives today, it's clearly going to become very warm or even hot across the south next weekend into the following week, especially if the Gfs 12z operational is on the money..maybe there will be a less warm blip but at worst I can see there being a rinse and repeat cycle into early summer and perhaps even something more sustained in terms of settled and warm weather further into june.
  15. BBC forecast agreeing with Met Office from earlier - a few heavy showers on Tuesday but otherwise bone dry all week for our area.
  16. I've noticed some are saying if they was having a bet, they would be putting there money on ECM!! Well I will bet that tonight's ECM 12z will be completely different come tomorrow morning's 0z run.... And that's a banker! We can't play down a fine spell on the back of 1 dodgy model run... Its not how it works, even though there will be some that hopes tonight's ECM is on the money.... Alot of water to pass under the bridge yet, me thinks!! Starting with tonight's 18z..
  17. Weird how your stations didn't take long to arrive. Mine set off on Wednesday and it's only just got to Stansted. It's due for delivery on Wednesday which will almost be 3 weeks in total, with no holiday shutdowns.
  18. Outstanding tune on radio 1 in the summer 2015. Must of been a great song it never entered the top 40 which is nowadays a load of pap. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satisfy_(Nero_song)
  19. Hadley EWP tracker was at 32 mm after 24 days, likely about 34 now, GFS estimate for rest of May is 15 to 20, so the previous estimate of 55 mm is still in play although values between 45 and 55 about equally likely to verify now. The provisional scoring was posted a few days ago for 55 mm, here's 50 mm as a slight variation. Verified numbers by 5th of June, monthly tracker should be final by 2nd (usually within 1-2 mm). EWP20182019G.xlsx
  20. Listed below, are the "virtual" returns for each Entrant, from the IRISH GUINEAS Weekend series of Races: V/W TOTAL ANTONYBR7: 35.45 BRISTLE BOY: 15.06 JENNYJANE: 73.57 KIRKCALDY WEATHER: 63.88 LASSIE23: 18.94 SUMMER SUN: 36.98 TOMSE12: 67.67 Listed below, is the updated Standings Table after the IRISH GUINEAS Weekend series of Races: LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER HORSE RACING COMPETITION (CURRENT STANDINGS AFTER IRISH GUINEAS WEEKEND.) INT'N'T'NL RACING/ IRISH GNS EPSOM FRENCH V/W ENTRANT YORK/NEWBURY EPSOM DBL W/END CLASSIC DBL CLASSIC DBL TOTAL 1. JENNYJANE 64.45 73.57 138.02 2. TOMSE12 47.88 67.67 115.55 3. K/WEATHER 38.00 63.88 101.88 4. ANTONYBR7 63.73 35.45 99.18 5. BRISTLE BOY 66.92 15.06 81.98 6. SUMMER SUN 40.78 36.98 77.76 7. LASSIE23 51.74 18.94 70.68 V/W = "VIRTUAL" WINNINGS. IRISH GNS = IRISH 1,000 and 2,000 GUINEAS. Getting a bit tired now but will post up some thoughts on the IRISH GUINEAS Weekend, tomorrow morning. Regards, Tom.
  21. Only around 1/4 of a mm here, Malcolm, though the forecast seems more optimistic for usable rain than it did earlier.
  22. Had a period from about 2nd April to 18th May without any rain and soil suface was just talcum powder. Since 18th May its rained nearly every day with today no exception a very wet morning ,almost dry afternoon and another wet evening. Wrote an article for a farmers magazine in 2013 where I stated that the UK had lost its benign climate and this feast and famine with regards to rainfall along with huge regional variations seems to back this up .
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