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  2. Yes, we know where this generally goes!
  3. Dry calm and cloudy. Staying reasonably mild with the cloud. Temp 7.4c
  4. Yes @feb1991blizzard most consistent run so far from the GEFS with the warming starting to push into Canada / Arctic by around 4th / 5th December onward. Mean - Will be fascinating to see how it all unfolds.
  5. Yesterday
  6. This has been the trend through today. It may change on tomorrow's runs but experience tells me otherwise.
  7. Lots of scatter on the 18z ensembles, this is for Northern England, lots of cold members in there.
  8. Wouldn't surprise me to see an even lower mean on the 18z, perhaps even an SSW.
  9. Twitchy times for the start of winter! Hope it's not another case of December recording a higher CET than the preceding November......
  10. I could suggest a better solution to lots of things. Better democracy means better representation. Better governance would follow. I would like to see a better future for the people that follow that doesn't mean them having to climb the greasy pole.and screw each other over.
  11. Only 5mm of rain has fallen in the 11 hours that the yellow warning has been in force.
  12. Good post and yes the lower areas of pressure are the problem.the high cannot push north even if it's further west.imo also there's a window of opportunity here before the nao moves towards neutral + moving into December with the PV moving up a gear
  13. Yes a few snow showers around on this run even in the south, better than nothing, might get a slight covering in a few spots, all a long way off of course and plenty of time for potential "upgrades".
  14. 18z GFS continues with the toppling scenario by day 10 which is already shown in the ECM/GFS 12z mean runs. This has been the trend today since the 06gfs run raised the eyebrow this morning.We can see that some of the vortex is leaking back across the pole towards the Canadian side which is putting more pressure on the Greenland ridging. Anyhow that's today's trend- tomorrow may be different wrt timings and the amount of ridging but those blues spreading back across the pole are scrubbing any Greenland heights.
  15. Yes it looks like a toppler but not as much as previous run so a step in the right direction,it would certainly be a cold/fresh/clean few days with perhaps some wintry showers in the NE and night time frost's and not the zonal mush we normally see at this time of the year.
  16. I often find late November an exceptionally miserable time weather wise overall, sometimes we can strike lucky with a cold arctic blast or cold frosty conditions overhead even a bit of snow, but the most likely scene is a damp drab grey dank one, often with bouts of wind and rain. The outlook for the next few days at least (signs by next Thursday things will change to something brighter and colder), is of this ilk.. Mmm just have to grin and bear it. No denying this is a preety miserable time of the year.
  17. True, but small steps back in the right direction none the less. At least theres a chance of snow showers moving in now in the NE. Never know, 00z might revert back to a big boom run, things are chopping and changing backwards and forwards.
  18. Your correct.it has to topple with the energy not going up the west coast of greenland or SSE.needs a weakening around Greenland to allow heights to extend north
  19. It will topple, but it’s a step back towards a better outcome for coldies - after the evening runs this is no bad thing!!!
  20. I could be wrong and probably will, Snowray. But just looking at that chart screams toppler..
  21. Weather history stats make for good observation, we've been draw a very short straw in recent years for cold and snow 4 out of the last 6 ranking near or at the bottom of the league.. Look at 62-63.. nearest winter 78/79 since only half the marks. I'd be happy with anything above 50 at least.. preferably 100, and to be greedy 150 or more..
  22. Yes it was there on the 12z but further east. and it pays us a visit at 210 with colder air tucking in behind it from the north. all a conjuncture at this range with all the chopping and changing early on but it's an upgrade to the 12z gfs.
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