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  2. EWP update -- 18 mm to 9th, looks like about 6 more on the 10th (much heavier in north Wales and Cumbria again, but grid average probably 6-8). Then the ten-day GFS is a little drier now than in recent days, as the focus of heavier rainfalls seems to be further west into Ireland. Would say 20-30 there, and maybe another 30-50 towards the end of the 00z run after the ten days are finished. Totals could be 75 to 105 mm from those estimates. Month also not quite over at that point, so 80-120 looking good. Despite having 119 forecasts on file, nobody is entirely out of the hunt yet. Although I predicted 77.8 mm, based on what I am now seeing my pick is 111.1 of Stationary Front to 120 (Relativistic, IIRC) or in that range of forecasts. CET still looks like mid 5 to low 6 is a good bet.
  3. Sea ice increases have abated somewhat. Small gains in most sea areas except probably Kara. MIA
  4. @StretfordEnd1996 Meteociel agreement? Lancashire and the Fylde snowstarved as per
  5. Just a footnote these normally correct south with time...
  6. A watching brief for Sunday. Snow indicated on a number of GFS runs on the northern flank of a small low zipping west to east through Wales. Positioning varies, most favoured might be North Wales, but may well position further south. 1) ICON 6z shows south wales snow potential with perhaps a more upland emphasis. 2) Arpege showing a northern event, with an earlier start time and perhaps again an more upland focus. 3) GFS 6z showing some consistency with the 0z run 4) GFS 0z "Snow Chart" from Netweather showing not just an upland snow event for most of wales, but many areas above c. 350ft would likely see at least falling snow. It will change in the next few days, but I'm watching this more closely now as it moves towards a *slightly* more reliable timeframe! Fingers crossed it doesn't disappear!
  7. Poor outlook from the GFS, particularly when you look at the vortex and it’s not even very organised yet. Shows you just how many hurdles there is in the way of us getting any meaningful nationwide cold spells, so many pieces have to be just right.
  8. The ICON also toying with the risk. Not just the GFS that's latching onto this scenario. Although, others are less bullish.
  9. Given there is such large differences between EC and GFS with Friday night's low track, Ec has it track across S England GFS across N England, wouldn't even consider snow potential as far away as early Sunday for now. 00z EC doesn't even show GFS's low for early Sun, though has a frontal wave or trough moving NE, which brings snow to Wales and N England for a time. This far off, could change ...
  10. It's always had a snowy bias to it the risk of some snow is there for Saturday night but confidence is low.
  11. FWIW (not a great deal) , CFS weekly anomalies looking quite promising
  12. 6z brings the snow risk right down to low levels, but it does seem to have a snow bias since the 'upgrade'.
  13. Being from a location right in the centre pivot of those red/purple colours at 200m above sea level, and having had experience of these marginal setups so many times before I must say I'm not overly convinced just yet To me that chart is massively overdoing the snow 'level' and it would probably only be the high ground above 200-300m that would get anything in the way of snow accumulating (though perhaps lowland places would see more in the way of sleet/wintryness) Either way I'm pretty positive the chart is probably tricking us a bit - the turnout would be nothing like that
  14. Except that the reporting of anomalies on a daily basis here is against running averages for this part of the month, so it's always equally likely to be above or below that statistic (not quite true in a warming climate it will be maybe 55% likely to be above and 45% below) ... what Rel was saying was, when you have only a few days, the average can be further up or down from normal than it's likely to be when you average 31 days at the end. The coldest running averages of December CET occur before the halfway point even though the second half is a bit colder on average. (check my post on 1st of Dec with normal and extreme values of CET, the lowest running CET was on the 8th of Dec 1879 at -3.65 C, the values then converge on the eventual coldest entire month, 1890 at -0.8). Also, the contribution of each day diminishes as you move forward. Today (the 11th) will be 1/11 of the average after today, tomorrow will be 1/12, the 31st will be 1/31, so if all three days are 3 deg below normal, today will have almost three times the impact on the running mean as the 31st would have.
  15. After a short burst of torrential rain around 1800, yesterday's rain soon cleared and the rest of the night was dry with clear periods. Dry with spells of hazy sunshine so far this morning. At 0900 Temp; 1.6c 24 hr max; 10.2c 24 hr min; 1.2c Grass min; -1.2c Rainfall in 24 hrs ending 0900; 14.1 mm Mean wind speed; 18 mph SW 6 oktas Ci and Ac Vis; 50 km.
  16. Today
  17. Will anyone in southern England see snow today? Some roads in Scotland are white on webcams. showers are coming shore as sleet all the way down to Cornwall and I've just seen radar show one band of sleet briefly flick to snow at Padstow. That band might turn to snow over Dartmoor and Exmoor. I've even seen some spots of sleety stuff at Poole and then north of Portsmouth. IMG_0109.MOV
  18. Lots of uncertainty around Christmas period with the charts.Met office also saying a small chance of cold dry weather possible,very interesting model watching coming up.Will pressure rise over U.K. /Scandinavia or continue with the unsettled theme.
  19. ha ha when you look at it like that you realise how poor things are right now
  20. Fantastic! Great skiing/boarding in La Plagne and well worth taking the cross-valley cable car over to Les Arcs for epic skiing over there too. Both LP and LA have great snow conditions at the moment and look set for an amazing start to their seasons this weekend. Current depths are: LP Upper 100cms Lower 30cms LA Upper 150cms Lower 80cms. Here's the view from Roche de Mio, La Plagne, yesterday: And the forecast for the rest of this week is for another 80cms of snowfall in LP. Snow accum from today to midnight Sat 14th: It would take exceptional weather conditions to mess things up for the Christmas week. A high pressure is not necessarily bad news as the temps are likely to be sub-zero overnight and on north facing slopes no real damage will be done by day. Hope you do it and have a great week.
  21. GFS 00Z If anyone doesnt get something from this on Sunday - yes Sunday - (that's not FI) - we may as well all give up
  22. Wednesday 11th December 2019 Clear spells developing overnight, slight ground frost. High cloud increasing this morning, clear spells. 24-hour maximum 11.9c 24-hour minimum 2.2c Minimum temperature on grass -0.1c. Maximum wind gust: (Midnight to Midnight) 31.0mph S Rainfall total: 4.4mm Conditions at 09:00 GMT 3 Oktas Altocumulus, Altostratus. Visibility >10 miles. Temperature: 3.2c Humidity: 94.8% Wind Direction: S Force 3 Barometer 1002.1mb rising slowly. Yesterday. Clear spells last evening allowed for a frost to develop. Clouding over after midnight accompanied by and increasing southerly wind, frost lifting. light rain arrived before dawn. Intermittent light rain through the morning, windy. Continuing much the same throughout the day. Turning mild.
  23. Snow shower in Pumbridge this morning on way through, big aul fat flakes and all!!!
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