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  2. Things are bubbling along nicely. Both Jan 79 and Feb 96 produced the goods...and the Euro must probably be most accurate in its handling of the pattern over the north atlantic in terms of wave 2 inspired distress for the vortex. It's been a really interesting November so far...
  3. Paul

    Pershore flooding November 2019

    Some photos of the flooding in Pershore. Least not as bad as 2007 (yet), thankfully.
  4. Is the UK going to be writing the guide to ten different ways to avoid the cold ! This is turning into several open goals missed , just when you think the opportunity is there another chance is hoofed over the cross bar ! Putting that frustration aside the models are still trying to build pressure to the nw and desperately trying to drop a trough south towards Scandi . Given the timeframes involved things could still turn out more favourable, can we just get a couple of decent strikers on to put the ball in the net this time .
  5. Step by step, we are watching the huge tropospheric process developing and it takes time. All began last week in the Pacific which now leads to the creation of Scandinavian HP and Aleutian LP. This process is running later than the GFS predicted. Beginning of December/ tail end of November is the current prediction. This is is how a wave one enters the stratosphere and disrupts the TPV and eventually displaces the SPV. Pacific is ready to repeat this process but this time it will be during winter proper hence why many are the end of December and beginning of January for the true effects. Asia first then USA will go and Europe last. If all goes to plan.
  6. I agree, bit of a petty post towards you. Didn't know Netweather had phone police haha.
  7. I believe child poverty was at 14% in the 70's? .....tell me again where child poverty stands today? As for flu? Swine flu took my father & son (Luke) leaving me (this past 9 years) with 'post viral syndrome'....but thanks for asking! Ther money to sort some of our issues/mitigate what we have coming is in the accounts of a very small number of individuals ( compared to the number of folk alive today?) Put it this way 1 million seconds is about 11 days. 1 billion seconds is about 31.5 years..... tell me again why we have billionaires when capital is finite?
  8. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming
  9. Today
  10. Most of the scatter, in today's GEFS 06Zs, is in SLP -- temperatures don't wander 'too far' from what the operational run is suggesting -- and today's run seems to broadly follow yesterday's 06Z, with its relatively mild easterlies...? What to make of it?
  11. Yes it's ironic in a way. Cold lovers look for charts that slow the Atlantic down along with a southerly tracking jet but the picture is not complete in this case. There is so much blocking on our side of the globe being modeled but currently the way it has developed it keeps any deep cold away from the UK. Ok it's been on the cold side with some places seeing snow this from a polar maritime type flow from the north west.We have seen weather systems slide se as they come up the eastern blocking but this pattern is set to be modified somewhat. If we look at the day 10 ecm ens charts we can see that the Atlantic is relatively quiet but because the Canadian vortex get's weaker the cold north westerly feed gets cut and temperatures return towards average later. The trend to move a chunk of the vortex towards Siberia continues but is only one part of the pattern needed to get cold here.This setup sends the Russian cold south not west because of the Euro high. Those ht. anomalies stretching north west from se.europe are locking us into this persistent pattern with only minor changes at the surface,maybe less rain and those slightly higher temperatures.
  12. Some early showers but dry from ten and a few sunny spells cold again Temp 6.8C, Barometer 1009mb steady, Wind NE, Rainfall 2.6mm
  13. Jean Fergusson, who played Marina in Last of the Summer Wine for 25 years, has died at the age of 74. Jean appeared in 216 episodes on the show from 1985
  14. Looking at the coming 2m temperatures it will be getting very cold above that big gap in the Chucksi region too, so much more gains to be expected from Monday on in that area @Midlands Ice Age
  15. 6.7c to the 14th 0.9c below the 61 to 90 average 1.6c below the 81 to 10 average __________________________________ Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st Current low this month 6.7c to the 14th
  16. Well even the cold plunge in to Eastern Europe is unlikely, more like to north western Russia or even further back to central Asia. Eastern Europe is firmly locked in mild temperatures apart from few rare ENS members, overall all GEFS,EPS and EC weeklies have us under very warm anomalies throughout.
  17. there is however a chance, that even though the deep cold plunges into scandi and into eastern europe it wouldn't take much for cold to enter from the back door from the east . . wouldn't mind seeing a continued southerly tracking jet and lows diving nw to southeast and for continued unsettled in the med. far from done deal but then im not keen on the erratic nature of the gfs. although i hold higher confidence in the ecm and the gefs. and sometimes the gem especially for height patterns. but then all models do struggle with uncommon patterns.
  18. A lot of lifestyle advantages of living in Australia but that photo is a sore reminder of what we miss out on at this time of year!
  19. Slightly worried though that the strat-trop coupling will just be delayed rather than cancelled and then a strong zonal flow will ensue meaning all we do is give ourselves less time to break it down with an SSW - that isn't a prediction, just a concern / observation, we have had many times lately when things look promising in November and then failed to deliver, i think we will be OK and get some chances though but further on into winter.
  20. indeed very very close though. plenty of wave breaking though so maybe something will flip towards a more favourable outcome. been an extremely interesting start with blocking a little more robust than recent years. a 1050 or 1060 mb greeny high would be a cracking start to winter proper.
  21. Wouldn't worry about individual runs....wildly different as usual. Some warming showing again at the back of the run, but hard to tell accuracy at this range.
  22. The problem is that we have seen many runs with this entrenched pattern and at no time has the UK been subject to a cold upper flow, the contrary mostly. We know FI GFS loves giving us these great cold charts, so I suspect this pattern just is not conducive to UK cold even with the "cold bias of FI" Again, even on the 06z, with cold being directed from the Arctic we have the spoiler omnipresent Azores High forcing the pattern to push east. We need any GH to sustain in that region, not be conjoined by the two waves currently holding the UK in no mans land, the Euro and Azores ridges. Even at T324 we are in that locked synoptic: This November, from start to finish may be summed up in the above chart and what that cyclic pattern entails. Maybe December will bring a reboot to the NH drivers?
  23. They will record them almost certainly. For example see the "Workshop on Predictability, dynamics and applications research using the TIGGE and S2S ensembles" from April 2019 - https://www.ecmwf.int/en/learning/workshops/workshop-predictability-dynamics-and-applications-research-using-tigge-and-s2s-ensembles Scroll down to 'Presentations and recordings'. Lots of interesting presentations on subseasonal to seasonal forecasting (MJO, QBO, sea ice etc) including one on forecasting the 2018 SSW from Alexey Karpechko. Some of the previous events have simple videos and PDF files of the presentations but this TIGGE/S2S one uses Adobe Connect which neatly combines the video of the speaker with the slides they're presenting (as well as having separate PDFs).
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