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Kentspur A high anomaly to our west in May would usually bring a chill but bright/sunny northerly airflow, western parts would see the sunniest conditions including the Lake District. In such set ups the air is often sparkling clear and indeed brings superb conditions here. Obviously troughs can become embedded in true arctic shots but rarely potent in May, perhaps a few showers. Even better is a more NE flow that can bring warmth to the west whilst the east is plagued by cloud, a common set up in May. I always say mid April to mid June best time to visit the Lake District. Back to the models, its all a bit unclear how next week will pan out, signs of the atlantic trough reappearing to the west to pull in a cloud dankfest to west parts once the milder easterly is out of the way, then we await to see if an atlantic ridge develops again or we maintain more notable heights direct to the north. Either way no heatwave on the cards, nor deluge, all quite benign typical stuff for this juncture in the year.

raz.org.rain I'd say it's August and September even that have the highest chance of seeing the warmest and driest weather of the season. The post-Super Nino and SSW are conspiring to make this year heavily backended. Really we're just waiting for the affects of the late season SSW to wear off for the wetness to stop, depressions in the Atlantic as of late are getting much weaker than they were in early April and before. June itself won't be special, I could see it being a bit of a May 2018 even with the thunderiness angle, July might have the first notable heatwave of the year and, assuming May isn't, could be the first drier than average month for most since June last year (0_0!), and then August will be the hottest month of the year with the final big (and possibly hottest, climate change is coming for the 1906 record) heatwave in September. What happens after that is heavily up to what happens with ENSO, as ENSO-neutral after this point would likely mean continued backendedness which means a dry, probably sunny autumn, while a new La Nina event (can we just not have neutral for a while please?) would likely see the backending stop by mid-October and we could actually see a colder than average Nov/Dec.

The hv6999jxe blog is going for a "decent summer" as they describe it; "I expect UK summer 2024 to be a “decent” summer, as I’ve eluded to many times on social media over the last few months. However, I expect it to start off as a bit of a slow burner, more especially June, with July and August the 2 months I would expect the warmest weather. I also believe we’ll see a significant increase in thundery plumes bringing plenty of thunderstorms up from the near continent this coming Summer!" I'm inclined to agree. I don't expect a repeat of last July/August as a strong El Niño won't be a factor. I get the impression that a neutral or even a rapid flip to La Niña could actually help to flip us into a drier and warmer pattern this summer, considering we're already stuck in a wet pattern.

Mainly cloudy with some sunny spells later,a few light showers,max 8 deg,min 2 deg

In Absence of True Seasons Any good weather in September I would welcome with open arms given it’s in the Atlantic half of the year. Anything to delay the onset of the depressing season.

Convective Outlook️ Falling mid-level GPH and surface pressure overnight with some cooling of the uppers with lower level temperatures staying more level should allow for the western edge of a Theta-E ejection to force a few showers overnight on Friday. Surface bands of vorticity should eject westward from northern France from a frontal system into a strong low-level lapse-rate area forcing potentially 100 J/KG Of 3CAPE but with weak deep-layer shear and high saturation the lightning risk is rather low and limited to the southwest and central southern coast.

Oh, for the expansion of the Hadley cycle ,

jamesthemonkeh How would the Lake district fare in this set up still chilly? Im off there and also a day trip to the West Coast of Scotland im guessing better than here in the SE closer to the high? I always hear the NW is best in May and first half of June

24 April 2024 Time-Lapse

Catbrainz Indeed GFS 12 has thrown out something more positive but there's no cross-model agreement yet. It's something to keep an eye on.

Hello am I reading the charts wrong? GFS 12 doesn’t look terrible next week after the low dips down to Iberia meaning the U.K. is back under orange below that black line.

I remember Atlantic 252 With any luck the Nino backending will have worn off by then and there may be some chance of winter synoptics occuring in actual wintertime. A light La Nina beginning in around September would kill it by October and lead to more seasonality for the period, ENSO-neutral would probably see an autumn 2016 repeat with summer synoptics continuing into December and then rapidly giving up and switching to a more frontended year like 2017. We have suffered the worst of all worlds in the last year, Super El Nino + positive IOD + sky high SSTs even without El Nino + late deep SSW. Horrible, vile combination that hopefully doesn't recur anytime soon. We could do with quite a long ENSO-neutral period now, around 2-3 years, or at least only very mild Nina/Nino events for the next 4-5 years. This constant back and forth between El Nino, triple La Nina and Super El Nino is exaggerating the growing extremes we were already seeing without them. ENSO-neutral winters are really a 50/50 with them either being extremely mild like 2019/20 or 2013/14 or cold like 2012/13. For springs and summers though they have a good track record, spring 2020 was the last neutral spring we had and July 2013 occured in the last true neutral summer. I can't think of any serious stinkers that occured during true neutral. Something like 2003 (not a stinker but for the purposes of definition) which is technically neutral doesn't really count as that's post-Nino and the global climate was still clearly being affected by it at the time.

Addicks Fan 1981 August 1993 was probably slightly colder still but I would say that August 2007 was perhaps maybe slightly wetter and duller overall. I think northern Scotland had a very wet August 2007. Summer 1993 was probably a much better summer than 2007 purely because the June and July that happened in 2007 was one of the worst.

@MetwatchI really hope something from the west or south comes in... This dry air has been nothing but grim. So much middle level moisture just causing gloom and absolutely shocking temperatures for late April. Monday was like January, except it got dark at 9pm.

*Stormforce~beka*Quite literally looks like someone was pulled a giant cotton wall blanket / duvet over the sky. What a pretty shade of grey

Very little rain today, a sharp shower mid morning and an hour of light rain this afternoon. Equally very little sunshine after 09.00 and a cool wind since mid afternoon.

So if Derecho's projected CET values come to fruition, the 2nd half of April (7.7C) will come in below the April 1961-90 average (7.9C). It feels more like February just gone than April and we are heading into the final month of spring next week.. I'm starting to think I overcooked my estimate of 9.6C. 10 days ago I thought the opposite. What a contrast!

Dami Dear weather gods. . . Can you just eff off!

Second half of this April has been quite devoid of anything thundery as high pressure has had a greater influence to our west, the next few days doesn't catch my eye either. However going into May does appear a bit more interesting. Looks like a trough is modelled across various outputs to collapse down into the Bay of Biscay. As a result much warmer air comes in via central Europe, then to Germany and that eventually arriving here via an easterly mid next week, a sort of modified plume I guess. Difficult to say how thundery things would be and where the boundary between cooler and warmer air sets up, but would expect something to pop up from this pattern. Interesting to see how this evolves in the coming days.

A cool and cloudy day with light showers and a few short sunny intervals. At 1700 g.m.t Temp; 5.9c Max today; 7.8c Min last night; 0.8c Grass min; -2.6c Rainfall from 0800-1700 g.m.t; 0.3 mm Sunshine today so far; 0.5 hrs Mean wind speed; 7 mph NW Highest gust today; 23 mph W at 0959 g.m.t 7 oktas Cu, Cb and Sc Vis; 40 miles

Part of me wonders if this run of SSWs is related to El Niño conditions and warmth being shunted into the Arctic. Considering everyone keeps banging on about how global temps will cool down with La Niña, presumably this will include the Arctic. Less anomalous warmth in the Arctic would drastically reduce the possibility of SSWs if I understand right.

Frost tonight too, will be warmer in 8-9 months, raging SW'lys double digit temps feeling balmy

Cold dry weather, yeah that worked out well....

Heating on full whack here. Can see my breath outside. Vile.

Looks like being the wettest April since 1970 for the region.