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  2. Tuesday 26 Nov - Thursday 5 Dec Colder to start Tuesday with rain spreading from the west, although many staying dry. Remaining unsettled through the rest of next week as weather systems move east or northeast across the UK, bringing bands of rain, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. The bulk of the rain, possibly heavy at times, seems likely across western and southern areas and it will often be windy, with gales in places. Snow is likely on northern hills at times, more especially later in the period. It should be generally milder than of late, though still feeling cold at times in bouts of strong winds or rain. Confidence becomes relatively low by early December but there is a chance of it turning colder again with frost/fog in the North and unsettled weather persisting further south. Friday 6 Dec - Friday 20 Dec Unsettled weather is expected for much of the period with weather systems bringing bouts of rain and strong winds across the UK from the southwest, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. The bulk of the rain seems more likely in western parts of the UK with longer drier spells likely across the east. Snow is likely at times in the north, mainly over high ground. Some quieter, drier, colder spells are also likely, giving night frosts and some fog. These may occur more frequently in the north in the early part of this period but confidence for this aspect is very low. However temperatures for the most part are expected to be near or slightly above average, for the time of year. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
  3. Just need that pesky Atlantic trough to get absorbed by the Sciceland troughing and we are right in business here.
  4. Pretty much the cold air gets shunted to the east as it sinks south, In my very humble opinion. You can see the cold air sink away south east as the momentum from the Atlantic pushes everything east.
  5. Day 10 second bite of the cherry hopefully!! Many twists and turns around the 6 day mark with this I think.
  6. Yep! there is that Forum at is best when we are debating, dissecting a run as it rolls out ( granted there is an agenda in doing so for the majority on here )
  7. Must be said there’s been some very strange charts this November, a very unusual series of weather. Another strange and complex chart.
  8. Noted... more ridging up the west side of Greenland into N Canada,should be another bite after that i would of thought.
  9. Excellent, J. Murray and N. Skupski win 6-1 and 6-4 to take team GB through to the Quarter Finals tomorrow.
  10. think it was already confirmed as Dec 13th 1981..plus this is the chart for the great SW Blizzard of 1978..which only really affected the SW of England and Wales
  11. The gfs is better already at 132 cold pool into N Iceland by this point.
  12. Cloudy again all day and now raining after a dry morning and early afternoon. 8.1°C
  13. Looks flatter upstream though!? - jeeze its a tough ole game getting it aligned
  14. UKMO 12z v 00z cold pool into the SE?,although we cannot see the 850's yet but i would think that that would be a colder run. Edit:i see Steve has commented on it well.^
  15. It’s not bad @johnholmes - great for sunrise/sunset/cloud/weather watching in all seasons. Would much prefer to live up high in the Highlands though. (Top of Cairngorm mountain would be ideal! ) Don’t worry @CatchMyDrift - won’t be long until those two pictures you posted are showing a scene like this...
  16. UKMO 144 my favourite model looking solid tonight especially for Scotland - incoming cold day 5/6 from the NE....
  17. My memory goes back to around 1982. Jan 1987 was the holy grail by far for me- both in terms of temps and snowfall. We got a direct hit with 2.5 ft of level snow near the top of the north downs. '91 was second although not as cold and no where near as much snow at around 16 inches. Then I guess there's been a few 1 foot snow events including last year - though the cold last year was impressive. I remember March 2005 as a very intense 1 foot of snow in about 8 hours. By 1991, I too thought it was usual to have severe winter spells quite close together - oh how wrong I was lol
  18. Not alot of change in the outputs really, still transient height rises around Southern Greenland and the chance of some colder air trying to, come down from the North. Be quite a bit of variation from run to run so I be reluctant too say a colder shot is on the way but I don't see temperatures being well above average either. Must be noted no real strong Greenland high is forecast, you need a true Atlantic ridge for that, some GFS runs do forecast that but too far out to call it a possibility.
  19. Why are the 12z runs nearly always better in the hunt for cold than the 00z runs. Another poster pointed this out before and it certainly appears to be true.
  20. Hi @frosty ground apologies for my very noob question. Are veterans of this forum familiar with charts that look like this? From my very limited lurking over the last couple of years my instinct would be towards excitement at a possible Northerly, I always thought it opened the door to the cold. It had never occurred to me that there may not be cold to tap into or that it wouldn't continue to drop south. I guess the overall westerly bias wins out?
  21. It's nice that we all get along isn't it anyway,the 12z ICON is more pleasing on the eye than the 00z with a more amplified low off Newfoundland and better ridging into Greenland,also no pesky shortwave in the mid Atlantic,it does look a lot cleaner cut to me. lets see what the other 12z suits come up with as it has been a bit of a downgrade but all part of the parcel this fun model watching is. C,U for now
  22. Exactly, it's the nothingness that drains the spirit, rather a good storm than endless mild/cold but not proper cold, dry and cloudy dross. Variety is the best weather outcome, throw it all into the mix!
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