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  2. I believe it is possible to have two SSW events during the winter, this link might help, suggests this happened in 98,99 https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf Looking at the trop model output this morning, it may even be that this warming event, if it happens, goes alongside a shift to a cold blocking pattern anyway. Speculation of course, but interesting times.
  3. Day 8 from the ECM, GEM and GEF. All decent but the ECM looks best with regards heights towards Greenland and a really good chance of a potent Northerly. I’ve stayed pretty confident of a cold end to the month over the last week or so so today’s switch towards that has been nice, will we keep the trend, lose it, or open the Arctic doors on the 12z I wonder. Fingers are crossed.
  4. to add to this all models do have this greenland area with promise of heights. and as you rightly say the pv is on the ropes with ongoing wave attacks. this morning both gfs models backed of from a strat event not completely. one run later its strengthened i've had a look at nasa model the jma and nav gem on the strat side of modeling all theses have not strat event but then they don't go out as far as the more main models. now there is however warming going on not substantial but more in the form of wave breaking which is nice to see. i've been strongly onside of the wedge into southern greenland. possible that these heights may increase further and that neg nao and ao could well plummet into december. especially if we get a warming event in the strat.
  5. 'Catastrophic' fire alert in two Australian states WWW.BBC.COM The warnings for South Australia and Victoria come as massive fires ravage other parts of the nation. South Australia was very hot today but there were no serious bushfires and a cool change has now gone through. There were ten November heat records in South Australia but Adelaide's 41.6 wasn't one of them ( it was 1.4c short of the November record but 16c above average) and the state maximum was 46.6c at Nullarbor ( 20 above average ) near the coast, in the western part of South Australia. This was just 1.5c short of the state record for November. Thursday will be hot and windy in Victoria and Tasmania. Temperature records far less likely. The catastrophic alert for Victoria is just for northern districts. Nullarbor's readings were pretty impressive today. I have never seen a 1% relative humidity reading before. Nullarbor also started the day at 13c minimum - a massive 33c diurnal temperature range.
  6. Afternoon Got some Ecmwf,Gem and Gfs snapshots below.. Ecmwf.. 22nd.. 23rd.. 25th.. 27th.. 30th.. Gem.. 23rd.. 25th.. 27th.. 29th.. 30th.. GFS.. 23rd.. 25th.. 27th.. 29th.. 30th.. A slow transition to more unsettled conditions they all agree on the overall pattern around the UK with higher pressure continuing to influence close to Greenland forcing the jet south with low pressure systems being the main driver of our weather which means frequent spells of rain with sunshine and showers in quiter interludes with temperatures higher than recently although colder air is never too far away especially by day 10 though that is too far out to have too much confidence yet.. there are some rather interesting very wintry scenarios being churned out by the GFS model past day 10 but shouldn't be taken seriously at all at this stage but fun to look at I'm sure. Will use Gfs for a little more detail.. Rain for the far west today elsewhere dry this is the case for tonight too the rain will push westwards into tomorrow morning but then by tomorrow afternoon and evening it finally starts to push northeast through much of the country but mainly showery bursts of rain nothing particularly heavy indicated atm apart from the far west of the UK.. Thursday morning and evening.. Friday showery areas of rain push northwards but some dry spells too particularly for the far East temperatures milder than recently. Then a more organised area of rain courtesy of the low pressure system responsible for the weather front today pushes North into most of England and Wales during Saturday this heavier more widely winds turn to the east as this low pressure system pushes north most parts perhaps wet until evening. Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon.. Sunday is looking mostly dry though atm apart from some patchy rain for Scotland but even here not that wet with drier spells. Monday looking much more unsettled once again as more bands of rain push across the country as low pressure moves into the west.. winds are now blowing from the west at this point with quite windy conditions too. Monday 25th midday.. A ridge of higher pressure for the UK in between rain bearing systems for Tuesday means atm it's mostly dry with some sunshine. Tuesday 26th midday.. But by tuesday night the next frontal system pushes swiftly across the country giving a wet start to Wednesday morning.. Wednesday 27th.. Then beyond that the Gfs continues the unsettled theme with more rain and perhaps strong winds too at times but there will be drier and sunnier weather in between.. Staying fairly mild particularly for the south until day 10 when the Gfs then shows colder northerly winds beginning to effect the country but this is subject to change. GFS rainfall totals for the next 10 day's..Wettest for Western areas. Gem rainfall totals for the next 10 day's.. Similar to the Gfs.. Finally the Gem and Gfs ensembles.. Gem ensembles show a milder trend for a time turning unsettled too by next week plenty of rainfall.. The upper air temperature differential during the latter stages of the updates are very big some very mild ensembles but also a few pretty cold ones which seem to cancel each other out enough for the mean to be around average.. That red ensemble member really wants to raise the upper air temperature nearly off the Chart! GFS ensembles not too dissimilar.. The operational Gfs has very big rainfall spikes at the end of the period this is associated with some significant snow in places too but as you can see not well supported as you would expect that far out.
  7. It's all looking very interesting towards month end wrt to a pattern change. Suggestions of a northerly have been showing up on a few runs. I thought maybe a short lived one at first as the trop. vortex moved across towards Siberia with Atlantic ridging moving in after. Now though with continuing wave attacks on the vortex from both sides we are seeing a building trend for Greenland blocking later on. This along with the Siberian placement of the pv promises a greater chance of a more notable cold outbreak. Some interesting outputs coming out now that's for sure.
  8. Strange one this. Didnt Stevenage investigate this interviewed the witnesses and found now case to answer?. I expect the FA have further evidence otherwise this does seem odd. Also do we know in what way he ment what he said?
  9. 2/3x2/3x2/3= 8/27 consecutive 3 winters will have 3 ssws in a row
  10. Murray 6-7 (7-9) 6-4 7-6 (7-5) Griekspoor A Fab start to the Davis Cup (in Madrid) Andy making a gutsy comeback to win in the 3rd set tie-break. Young Dutchman Tallon Griekspoor played so very well ! Dan Evans plays next for team GB.
  11. @Midlands Ice Age MOSAIC Switzerland sees record November snowfall, almost 710 mm (28 inches) recorded WATCHERS.NEWS Heavy snow hit parts of Switzerland over the weekend, November 16 and 17, 2017, bringing the monthly total up to 710 mm (28 inches) in Santa... Record November snowfall in Switzerland affects ski stations and... WWW.SOTT.NET Heavy snow over the weekend was recorded in the southern and eastern parts of the country. The record for November has been...
  12. Is it rare to get 3 winters in a row having an ssw?
  13. Today
  14. Some excitement in the mad thread, just you watch, we'll have everything in place, for the 1st time in years, and the ssw will blow it to smithereens lol
  15. MEH. Cloudy/Grey and not very warm although nowhere near as cold as it has been. More akin to a January day
  16. That is what i fear may happen. But like you i am but a novice ...
  17. Doesn't this chart posted by knocked show more of a warming over Canada though? I did see charts earlier in the week which showed a eurasian warming so not sure if something has changed or just different models showing different outcomes... ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-5028800.webp
  18. Afternoon all :) I fear I'm a novice at this as well and I don't understand the optimism of some on here. To me, we are seeing (and still in FI) a strong warming from the Eurasian side - all that will do is displace the PV back to Canada where it will strengthen and re-form in situ and inevitably the trop and strat vortices will connect and the jet will fire up. We need two or three of these to weaken the PV enough to dislodge it further west and encourage blocking either over Scandinavia or perhaps Greenland. I accept there may be a lot else going on at different levels and at different ways but I wonder if this is where the UKMET's mild winter forecast originates - a powerful displacement which doesn't split the stratospheric PV but sends it back to Canada where it strengthens and locks us into a zonal Atlantic spell.
  19. I know what they are seeing, they are seeing extensive high pressure across Europe with a rampant Atlantic ..(+NAO).. Obviously i and many others hope the models will throw a curve ball..
  20. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alicia.Bentley/fv3gfs/updates/EMC_CCB_FV3GFS_9-24-18.pdf The above is a link a to a presentation (2018) where a few comments are about the stratosphere in the FV3 GFS These points are found on page 53 FV3GFS Temps are similar to GFS in middle and lower stratosphere • FV3GFS Temps are warmer in upper stratosphere • FV3GFS Temp fcsts in winter hem upper strat high lats are colder • Zonal Winds are slightly worse in FV3GFS at longer fcst times • Ozone mixing ratio analyses and fcsts are similar • Total ozone anal are diff at high lats, FV3GFS fcsts are slightly better • Specific Humidity is much more realistic • FV3GFS is similar to GFS forecasting the 2018 SSW
  21. Hard to compare that forecast with current strat and trop output. I notice the reference to "slight risk of significantly colder weather" so keep your eyes on that.
  22. almost makes it sound like winter's over before it's even started!
  23. Thanks for the continued updates MIA. Great to see the Kara nearly full...hopefully the natural shield of NZ will protect the ice from any warm Atlantic incursions! A relief to see the Chucki making sustained big gains at last, too. Re MOSAIC - were they not expecting to have to heat the ship with their diesel engines? Slightly distressing to think they're burning so many tonnes of fossil fuels each day in the High Arctic, and contaminating the ice with soot, etc. I'm also amazed they didn't think the engine's outputs would contaminate their experiments...that seems a massive oversight. Or am I missing something? Very interesting to monitor their drifting in any case and see where they end up!
  24. Next weekend potential for some wintery conditions more of a northerly wind. Below average temps. Eastern areas seeing frequent showers Winter tyres on in preparation.
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