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  2. In case you missed @Yarmy's comment, it is the seasonal hindcast for December - February 1995 of the current model with November 1995 initialization data. Hopefully this hindcast is as good as the current winter forecast
  3. 5 days blank, 241 for 2019, 75% Solar flux 70 Thermosphere: 3.74
  4. No surprises with the ext GEFS this morning with the vortex over northern Russia with trough extensions to the north of the UK and Alaska/northern Canada. A strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of the latter and the adjacent Greenland ridge which then runs unimpeded across a negatively anomalous Atlantic to the the UK as the block in the east declines. This would indicate unsettled with temps around average. perhaps a tad above
  5. According to the gfs the evolution continues apace over the weekend and into next week as the eastbound energy slowly erodes the block as high pressure is transferred west to Greenland.Thus systems continue to track east over the UK but at least it is now a tad warmer than of late. And this is the overall 5-10 picture with tpv pretty much where expected
  6. Today
  7. Outlook - Essentially the story of an extra tropical cyclone that has developed in the north west Atlantic drifting east through this week The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analyses for midnight and the latest sat image After a frosty start in many places, and some cloud and rain in the south east which should clear fairly quickly. today will be a sunny day with little wind. The exception being the east coast where the might be the odd shower in the brisk northerly wind. Tonight clear and cold with a widespread frost by Tuesday morning with a fair bit of fog around. Still the odd shower clipping Norfolk Once the fog clears another sunny day for most but an occlusion associated with the aforementioned low will bring rain to N. Ireland and the south west by 1500 Over Tuesday night and through Wednesday the front and rain make little progress east as the low stalls to the west of Ireland courtesy of the eastbound energy hitting the block to the east, So many areas will nave a another sunny day with the cloud and patchy rain confined to western regions Over the next couple of days the energy distribution continues to negate eastward movement of the trough which becomes negatively tilted under the pressure resulting in a myriad of fronts/troughs tracking north east across the country bringing showers and longer periods of rain with the surface wind also increasing from the south east. But this also means temps rising a tad
  8. Amazing no rai and dry. Cold Temp 2.9C, Barometer 1017mb steady, Wind NNW, rainfall 0.2mm
  9. Pub run may have been onto something, 00z follows on in a similar vein, but with even colder air close by, this is day 10. Not sure the lack of heights around Greeny will help swing the arm round though, but not a bad run till this point.
  10. Interesting jet profile too, need to get that into the more reliable timeframe.
  11. I believe that those are hindcasts for 95/96 from the current seasonal models. In other words, it’s what the current models would’ve predicted then. Someone responded to a question Ant Masiello asked on Twitter: Twitter MOBILE.TWITTER.COM
  12. I much prefer todays majority cluster compared to yesterday's.
  13. Dry and calm with clearing skies allowing a light frost to start and form Temp 3.9c
  14. Yesterday
  15. WINTER 2019/20 What may this winter bring. As you know I base my forecasts on the primary solar forcing of the cycles of the sun, the magnetic field effect modulated by the lunar gravitational pull. In 2009/10 and 2010/11 winters we saw incredible cold and snowy spells. This was at Schwabe solar minima between cycle 23 and 24. Sunspot count was as follows 2007 – 152 spotless days 2008 – 268 spotless days 2009 – 260 spotless days 2008/9 winter was not a cold one As cycles are generally 11 years long I think we are at the position of 2008. Current sunspot run in this minima between cycles 24 and 25 2018 – 221 spotless days 2019 – currently at 238 spotless days and the sun is currently blank with 46 days still to go. Will we exceed 268? It’s up for grabs that is for sure....time will tell. I might be wrong and we might be at the same spot now as 2009 and not 2008. If so then this minima isn’t looking as deep so we’d have to include 2017 which ran at 104 spotless days. So my comparison looks like this 2007 – 152 v 2018 – 221 2008 – 268 v 2019 currently at 238 and counting If we are at same place as 2008 then this is the comparison 2007 – 152 v 2017 – 104 2008 –268 v 2018 – 221 2009 – 260 v 2019 currently 238 and counting Factors I’m looking at So, could this be important? It could be and as we know the deep minimas do appear to bring northen blocking, a meridional and a southerly tracking jetstream. Already Nov is nicely below average with a very meridional jetstream. We have now seen that October was 5th in snow cover league which was some going considering the rapid expanse in the last week. Added, Nov now the snowiest on record. Arctic ice was very very low in relation to the ‘recorded’ mean but as highlighted by MIA on the appropriate thread we have had a very notable, sit up and look rapid refreeze up there. Also the lack of refreeze in Chukchi Sea may support ridging in that region. MIA also made a point re SSTs this side of the NH. Cold blob to our west and cold going up Norway round Lapland and Finland to our N and NE. This would make any northerly or NE’ly have much more bite with less moderation of uppers. We have seen incredible (at times) record cold surges being recorded with early snowfall being recorded widely. We still have a disconnect between strat and Trop and are descending towards eQBO So is this the winter to be a 20th century Great matcher, (in 2018 I touted one of the next 3 2018/9, 2019/20, 2020/21 will be). It wasn’t last winter so it has to be this year or next winter for me to be correct. So here we go, this winter has a real chance. November has behaved very well to my thoughts and indeed is looking to be cooler than I thought with the jet digging further south. My concern has been re December that I’ll looking for pM and at times aM air to be the main feature (basically a lot of northerly winds with a displaced PV over Scandinavia. The issue in past is how far south the cold will push and how much mixing out of the cold will there be it being maritime air. Well the SSTs imo favour that the cold should be quite punchy. Rest of November, another southerly tracking LP to come before we see HP have greater influence/build over us from the Atlantic cross us to the north and to likely to slip away east with a less cold period last week of the month before we see what I think will develop for Dec at months end. December – The way Nov has and is panning out I am now edging towards cold and at times snowy conditions for whole of UK and Ireland and not just far North Scotland and NI. From very end of Nov I think we’ll see a PV displacement to set up shop to our NE driving down at times arctic air over the whole of the UK. The cold will be of significance with at times secondary LPs coming at us on NW/SW axis off the Atlantic bumping in to very cold air. I’m anticipating a very snowy at times December with Northerly Quadrant flow generally dominating for the month. Periods for me of potential note for disruptive weather 2nd week up to midmonth and last week of December. If it’s cold then snow and gales likely issue, if not cold enough then very heavy rain and gales.... hedging bets as I know how disappointing northerly flow can be for southern parts. However, we could be looking at a month here of memory with potential of memorable cold and snow periods January – I’m really up in the air on this. Initially I think first week continues the theme of December, another very disruptive week of (hopfully) snow but disruption through precip and wind. However, I think HP will then develop and dominate most of the month. Its where it positions itself will be all important. I’m currently of the thought it will be over us ie mid lat blocking and we’ll see cold nights but with daytime temps gradually rising. However, slight adjustments could see real cold easterlies or a drab and not very cold S to SE’ly flow. February – Continues HP them with potential cold easterly and southerly tracking LP during 2nd week but more norm temps if not mild at times....stubborn HP in wrong place. Alternative to this is the HP being bang on in right place and bitterly cold.......but for me a front loaded winter and a disappointing last half.....but very much open to change as that is on a fine edge. BFTP
  16. To be honest, blue, I'd choose @johnholmes dice or anyone's over the ECM 46 dayer after last winter... Progress is a windy path.
  17. An interesting 18z GFS showing how quickly things can change when that Scuero ridge collapses. Ens ht anomalies have been steady on this for a few days now and also trending towards Scandi.lower anomalies with hints of weakish hts towards Greenland.. An Arctic northerly later in week 2 is certainly possible with the vortex disruption modeled, all we need is that wedge of high pressure to the north with this southerly tracking jet..
  18. A very funny comment made me chuckle Gfs certainly strengthens the blocking towards Greenland on this update with low pressure systems taking a more and more southerly track as the run goes on.. it is quite different to the last run so perhaps a dusting of salt should be sprinkled.. For now anyway. But very interesting nevertheless.
  19. US nic out early today.... Snow cover made more smallish gains, with Switzerland now covered as well as the aforementioned snowfalls around Tehran. Ice situation... Kara increased today after the large drop of yesterday. General moderate increases in most sea areas apart from Barents and Greenland which are still seeing the effect of the southerly winds. MIA
  20. An example of how Disco gave birth to House Music. [Note the light strings of the orchestra] A Patrick Adams/Leroy Burgess Production with the legendary Christine Wiltshire on vocals.
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