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  2. doesn't always mean less heat..August 2004 was very wet..but also very warm and humid.
  3. The goodness for that...The 12Z ends on a much more positive note than the 06Z did! Let's just hope that the FV3 does likewise?
  4. Extract taken from post of last week to assess progress, at the end of a beautiful Easter weekend and when some of us are looking for clues when the next warm and settled spell may appear Had been looking for some further evidence to keep backing up the quoted suggestion and to prevent any slippery slope into a late Spring cool trough gaining further traction into a more extended period. Here it is: This velocity potential (VP) 200 anomaly cross-section represents an eastward moving convectively coupled kelvin wave (CCKW) modelled to cross the Pacific during the first half of May. This matters because it provides a further boost to westerly wind bursts across the Pacific (to follow the current ongoing increased easterly trade winds close to the dateline) ensuring that upwelling of sub surface warmth can prevent any continued decline in this weak El Nino - and re-set the rossby wave pattern downstream once again back to being pre-disposed to building ridges instead of programming a persisting trough In association with the CCKW, deterministic MJO modelling has started to pick up on increased eastward progressing amplitude activity which should support a recovery in angular momentum tendency to resurrect from the the current downturn as part of a next uptick in ridging to replace the trough Unsettled for a time, yes - however its conceivable that the models might over programme the duration of the trough, but in any case, there are at least signs that the suggested improvement has some reasonable support to ensure that further fine weather has a chance of returning following the upcoming unsettled, cooler and windier spell A case though of keep watching to check this evolution stays constant and seeing how NWP responds
  5. Been around Valehouse reservoir twice in last 2 days. Probably passed your house! Yes the fire bugs are out and with the bean counters betting on a low probability of crews being required in this day and age, it's a perfect situation to have an out of control fire and not enough resources to tackle it.
  6. Happy to report the ground is looking quite normal, grass is green, foliage is green, rivers haven’t ceased to exist, birds are not falling out of the sky and there’s no shortage of water or scorched earth in this part of Hampshire following the last few days pleasant warmth.
  7. Arctic Northerly from the 6z gone, surprise surprise and replaced with a warmer southerly into the early days of may on the 12z.
  8. I'm glad to see the threat of prolonged cold dreichness reduce; a much more benign run (so far!) -- once the thunderstorms are out of the way!
  9. The cold kills a lot more than the warm, I agree. I can see why people would want it cool but cold all year? That’s not for me. Each to their own though and that’s why all the opinions on here make it a cracking place to be. May it be 50 degrees and snowing everyone!!!
  10. Looking at the Gfs 12z operational this could turn into an interesting week with bands of heavy thundery rain pushing north at times and turning chilly enough for snow on higher hills in the north..it's welcome rain which will put out all those moor fires that were probably started deliberately!
  11. cannot understand anyone wanting rain, From about Wimbledon time to mid-late Aug, rain gives me a bad chest, fungal spore allergy the warmer and drier the better
  12. How on earth people can enjoy cold and rainy weather is beyond me. What do people actually do outdoors when it's raining and cold? I can understand people not wanting blazingly hot sunshine for weeks on end but to want cold and wet weather, I struggle to understand.
  13. Early cloud clearing here and Radar showing what showers there were and the rogue storm are dying away.
  14. Blue skies fresh southerly wind, RH of 24% and 21c here this afternoon spoilt only by a moderate moorland fire to the SE which created a bank of smoke to the east. Everything is tinder dry again so the rain at the end of this week will be welcome
  15. Plenty of mid-level convection to the SW here with some good wave clouds forming, models suggesting that if the cap was to break today it would be doing so right about this time.
  16. Today
  17. A rather chilly outlier http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=264&y=72
  18. The ukmo 12h shows improvement in the weather by T+144 hours, especially further s / se.
  19. Early May looks awful. Not late May and certainly not June from my perspective anyways! If you’d like it cold then I suggest cold showers lol that’s how I get about it. Honestly though that cool breeze we had today made it pleasant. I just think there’s nothing like getting into the Wimbledon and hot weather spirit in summer personally but obviously that’s my preferance
  20. Elevated cloud spilling in from the south, feels really muggy here - wouldn’t be surprised if there was some scrappy elevated stuff round these parts a little later
  21. Nowt much new, with the GFS...Thursday still looks unsettled with average temps: Just how haywire will the longer-term outlook go, though?
  22. Yes, looking quite convective here in Walsall, some dark bases and some pretty large Cumulus about.
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