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  2. Great to see the forum so busy, shame I can't really join in the fun due to posting restrictions but I'm liking the ukmo 12h @ day 6 with the door opening to colder weather from the N / NE in less than a week from now..plenty of cold potential elsewhere too so I have my fingers crossed for early Dec cold and hopefully some snow!!!!!
  3. Indeed it is, NWS...but so it would be, were it forecasting -15C uppers and a raging blizzard? Anyways, as a lover of warm and cold weather, it disnae really matter that much...there's entire winter still to come! More cliches needed?
  4. Strangely i thought different can't remember if it was last year are the year before but they were way off the mark must look back and see which year it was.
  5. I've just gone over 1000mm of rainfall for the year. Pretty much half of that since September 1st.
  6. Short gefs ens... there is quiet a few heading for that -5 uppers come the end of the month.
  7. A little harsh, but the Spanish Meto are forecasting a drier and slightly warmer 1st half of winter than norm for Iberia, so the Azores, mid-Atlantic High *may* be around for next 6-8 weeks in some form. Their Winter forecast last Winter was pretty close to the mark.
  8. Its an FI chart from one model. Think that says it all. Not saying it will be wrong mind..
  9. I know mate frustrating... Just remember dont always be suckered in the GFS optical illusion.... Its backtracked so far to the UKMO already...
  10. Not so good for Latvia I prefer the high riding through the UK option
  11. Just frustrated, we get very few chances throughout the winter and this month has been an open invitation NH wise for UK cold, but we are seeing FI charts like this:
  12. It's interesting just to compare the adjustments to the 500 hPa pattern for the mid-term on the last 3 12z GFS runs for the 27th Nov.-what is now day 6. The latest run is the last image We can see as we get closer in time the model phases the uk low complex with the main vortex which helps to draw the colder air further south than was modeled 48 hrs ago.No more bowling ball low stuck out west with a milder flow in fact the trough has just about cleared into the N.sea. This in conjunction with the ongoing heights towards Greenland.Not yet perfecto for a real Arctic outbreak but a look at the 850 hPa temps at T144 show they are further south now. The UKMO also with a similar picture of cold air just hitting Scotland. Just to illustrate how things can change even at quite short range and how we can start to pick up a trend. . We have enough cold modeled building just to our north/north east to draw on.The question really for further on is how effective the Greenland heights will be in order to help to bring the cold even further south.
  13. Yes - exactly - its the temperature gradient that fuels the Jet so we need cleaner ridging into Greenland.
  14. Or the problem could be - you only use one model. The GFS... Only yesterday ( & the day before that ) & so on.... The zonal onslaught was coming. How wrong that turned out to be-
  15. Will be interesting how EC plays out. Coldies do need to see energy digging as far south of the UK as possible. UKMO does look every so slightly south with this than GFS,every little helps!
  16. The issue is where the Jet is forecast to be (over the UK) Westerly momentum is to strong unless the Jet sinks further south which is a difficult ask when you have heights increasing to the south
  17. The only way to get rid of heights to the south though is to dig a trough down there.
  18. Hudson Bay ice cover now https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTHB/20191118180000_CVCHDCTHB_0010859237.pdf Average for season to date https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHACTHB/20191118180000_CVCHACTHB_0010859227.pdf Comparison to average week by week shows would normally be fully frozen in about a month https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCSWCTHB/20191118180000_CVCSWCTHB_0010859241.pdf (Note - this measure of Hudson Bay ice includes Hudson and Baffin Straits to the North. Ice there is well down causing the late start but I think Hudson Bay itself has started freezing up close to average.)
  19. Definitely an upgrade or two yes - but also a few duffers too - not overly keen on the GFS UKMO is out on its own slightly but looks okay on face value. Eagerly awaiting the ECM
  20. I was just coming on to say the very same thing. My refresh button on meteociel was in overdrive in he last half hour! All very finely balanced, so 24/36 hours of nail biting ahead.
  21. They could be trigger lows rather than spoilers but for the Iberian High that prevents the undercuts by continually popping up and deflecting the cold: With that in place we simply will be counting the days of winter as they slip away, chance after chance, even with these potential cold shots. Third run in a row with that stationary Iberian High.
  22. Are we on the cusp of a cold spell here,it wouldn't take much for a bit more of a southerly track of systems engaging with the cold pool to our N/NE i know that i am ramping slightly,but there has been upgrades this afternoon.
  23. Ukmo shows ridging towards Greenland ending at 144h with a north easterly and cold uppers primed to invade the country
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