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Big shower coming

jy Omg . I'm laughing out loud . I'll send you all a photo Might get me banned from the group though ...

In Absence of True Seasons The average temperature in September is 20.2c so it's hardly a waste. Typical September weather would be pleasant for most.

B87 I feel like most people would prefer the sort of weather we get in September nowadays, in April or May. I certainly would. 20c+ weather in Sept feels like a tad of a waste, especially in the latter half of the month.

CryoraptorA303 indeed. In my childhood, which was the 90s and very early 00s, August was always the "king" summer month. The month where things were generally warmest, sunniest and driers. We used to go on a family trip every August to Devon, and in my mind's eye it was generally sunny and warm most years, enough so for me as a child to swim in the sea, my parents would lounge about on the beach etc, sometimes my dad would get the kayak out and I'd sit in the back. There's plenty of photos I've seen of those holidays too and most of the photos show sunny weather, everything very vibrant. If I had been a child in the 2010s to now, that decade of summer holidays in August would show a very different picture. July tends to be the "king" summer month nowadays, August a disappointment, and then a final blast arriving in Sept.

Will be interesting comparing the 1-14 CET and the 15-30 CET. The last couple of days will bring a warm up, but certainly the 15-28 mean will be comparably below the 1-14 mean.

midlandsun My parents are in the Midlands.

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.0C +0.6C above average. Rainfall up to 74.1mm 132.1% of the monthly average. Looking like we will get an average month now in regards to temperatures if the afternoon run is correct.

Turning into a notably cool spell, and we could end below 9.5 degrees.

Yes, my prediction is looking better by the day. Though I went a bit too overboard for rainfall. This cool spell has gone on for longer than expected, and doesn't look all that mild until the beginning of May.

Its been fine and dry here so far today, we seem to have a shower shield around us. No evidence of any rain in early hours either. Just checked the radar and surprised at the amount of shower activity given how fine it is here. Sometimes you strike lucky, indeed we've enjoyed a run of dry days since Saturday. It is chilly air, lots of sun but failed to reach 11 degrees.

B87 I remember being quite shocked at how relatively low September's average rainfall and it's sunshine was, until I actually thought about the last few years and realised how many of them could have plausibly been Augusts. It makes sense as well with the subtropical ridge's growing influence on our climate, as it's at its northernmost extent in early September, so it likely prevents a lot of showery weather and only lets in the occasional strong storm fuelled by the highest oceanic temps of the year. You can often see the influence of the subtropical ridge in August and September over Kent, and to a lesser extent the SE, it's often drier than the surrounding region no matter what. I refer to this as being "Kented" The Met Office has stated that summer-type synoptics in Autumn are likely to become more common over the century due to climate change: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2023/2023_05_september_heatwave.pdf "As our climate continues to change, it will tend to further increase the likelihood, duration and intensity of heatwave events experienced across the UK. Met Office research[1] has also shown that climate change is expected to increase the frequency of summer-type weather regimes during the Autumn in the UK." This will presumably increase the number of September annual maxima (which are considerably more common in some Csb climates like northern Spain than here) and the severity of heatwaves in September and October in general. Makes you wonder if in the near future we could see a September so hot that it ends up as one of the ten hottest months ever recorded.

Since our old friend, the late season SSW, has annihilated our Spring yet again, give me your best & most suitable attempts on what it really abbreviates to! I'll get started- Sudden Spring Wrecker Satanic Sodden Weather Soul Sucking Wretch (If SSW was an entity) Sunshine Suppressed Wasteland Sabotaging Spring Wickedly

CryoraptorA303 September is now the month with the fewest wet days on average, though not the driest in total amount. More late summer thunderstorms and occasional hurricane remnants probably causing the increase in heavier rainfall on fewer days. I think we will also see a 20c October in the next 2 decades. Current warmest Octobers by av max: 1995: 18.3c 2022: 18.3c 1969: 18.2c 2011: 18.1c 2023: 18.1c 1959: 17.8c 2005: 17.8c 2006: 17.8c

Bats32 last summer was combined with an el nino though.. Did that play a part in summer last year going down hill in mid July? That won't be a factor this year.

*Stormforce~beka* Weather doesn't matter,the whole concept of World Naked Gardening Day is to allow male and female gardeners to air their differences in public.

These two are just funny to me. Both times the August and September could have plausibly been switched. Nature was really trolling the schoolchildren in these two years In all seriousness, the growing summer-ness of September and the recent decline of August is noticeable in the long-term climatology. September's overall rainfall has declined quite a lot since 61-90 in the SE, while August's has increased a little.

CryoraptorA303 The most noticeable thing of all is that in the Heathrow record, there have been 12 Septembers sunnier than the preceeding August. No big deal, until you look at the years in question. 1958, 1968, 1971, 1979, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2021. What did happen once a decade on average is now happening almost half of the time since 2006.

Yes, I thought todays showers were due tomorrow. Showered on and off all day, latter half of afternoon drier. Noticeably cooler without the bursts of sunshine, managed to scrape 9°C. In the last throws of April now, it has so far only produced 5 dry days here.

Let's hope so.

raz.org.rain We had a late SSW last year did we not and the summer was mostly poor?

Fallen here to 7,5C here in central ish London with cold light rain this is really quite dire. Heating on.

danm Indeed, it really is the worst of both worlds. Abysmal December, apocalyptic February and then a late SSW to start the cycle all over again. Considering the deep SSW happened in early March and assuming it has an active window of around six weeks before the effects gradually decline, it'll likely take until mid-May at the earliest to shake it off now. Super Ninos have a habit of doing this, having a strong PV over the winter so we get mild, wet rubbish, and then have a deep SSW in March so the spring is suppressed. Sky high SSTs have conspired with this to ensure such a progression remains very wet and dull throughout. Temps have only remained at where they are due to aforementioned sky high global temps and the occasional breakthrough front that gives us a few decent days before normal programming resumes. The cough silver lining of this though is by the time this is over the Atlantic would've had over half a consecutive year of high cyclonic activity and there is now a noticeable cold blob in the west Atlantic, so once the affects of the SSW start wearing off, those highs should begin to reach us quite eagerly, so there is at least a plausible hope that the second half of the year might be notably dry, sunny and probably very warm to hot.

The first cams now in range for sat, what a look from the 3km NAM, interestingly its the only model that adds a slight inversion, could well be a model bias but interesting to see. Just look at the warm sector, 3-4000 j/kg cape, curved and inflated hodographs just absolutely high end. Some weirdness going on with hodographs at 2-3km, this is 100% a nam bias where it underdoes your 700mb winds. Friday is also worth looking at, especially with the recent HRRR HRRR gets into range of sat at 2am tonight, may be worth staying up for. Defo 2 days of moderate potential, maybe even high for sat but just depends on either the morning convection firing then shooting out of the target area with little cloud cover or just not going up at all.

Alderc 2.0 Nothing surprises me at the moment. All I recall seeing for weeks now is model runs that do everything they can to end up with a northerly!