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SunSean This has provided me with much entertainment and giggles as IBS forces me me to camp in the bathroom! Thank you ...

I think for most people on here it's probably going to take a fair bit to redeem this year from here. I'm guessing we go for a consistently very warm or hot and sunny extended summer period from May to September (but with no 35C or higher at any point) with most rainfall coming from multiple violent thundery breakdowns would be pretty popular. We'd then probably need a mild first half to October swinging into a cold and crisp second half, continuing into November, with then a seasonably cold and snowy December especially over the Christmas and New Year period. Still time for things to change - I think it's a bit crazy to write off the entire year at this stage! These days the envelope for warm and/or hot weather includes May and runs right through to the end of September or even into early October.

Ok well overall in 2023 Exeter had 112% of its annual rainfall and 96% of its sunshine (January,, May and June really boosted otherwise poor sunshine amounts) I have to be honest I’m actually shocked at the results…the reality felt somewhat worse that the above figure suggests 2023 January 82% rainfall 128% sunshine February 13% rainfall 87% sunshine March 165% rainfall 42% sunshine April 107% rainfall 79% sunshine May 85% rainfall 127% sunshine June 25% rainfall 135% sunshine July 205% rainfall 74% sunshine August 87% rainfall 88% sunshine September 199% rainfall 97% sunshine October 124% rainfall 97% sunshine November 115% rainfall 107% sunshine December 138% rainfall 73% sunshine 2024 January 58% rainfall 126% sunshine February 187% rainfall 51% sunshine March 188% rainfall 81% sunshine As for April we are about 20mm away from our April average which I expect we’ll receive more than that this weekend, some websites predict us 30mm+ this weekend alone. As for sunshine we have 60 hours of sunshine to get by next week to reach April average which given the forecast I just don’t see us reaching so I think it’ll be a wetter and duller month overall but I wouldn’t imagine huge percentage deficit, probably moderately so….so I guess that’s a positive given how some months have been. Lets hope May and Summer really makes us forget this wet and dull period

midlandsun Yea your right mate!

I hope 2025 will see something more like 2003. It seems almost impossible to have average or above average sun in every month of the year (only 2003 managed it), yet it seems easy to have majority or multiple dull months in a row (like 1987, 1998, 2013, 2021 etc).

jtay It is! Last one for a long time

Yep, definitely quite a big fall. The main reason being the persistence of the pattern rather than anything spectacularly cold, like a genuine late snowfall or something. But a very different feeling month to what it could have been - if the pattern from the first half had persisted instead it could have been near record territory. Still won't be too horrendously off with my 10.4C, I guess. Glad I didn't go too absurd with the mildness. 110mm for rainfall is also slightly overdone but again, not dreadful. Still need to decide on my May forecast...

TwisterGirl81 Pure blue sky here! Per 2023s standard. Cloud by day then clear at night!

I think maxima are likely to recover close to average or a little above that around the turn of the month, but nothing overly impressive. Unfortunately, the early signal for FI is currently renewed northern blocking... The British climate really is everything at the wrong time of year right now. This late April into early May period if we do get two significant northerly / easterly outbreaks, shifted back three months, would have meant two properly cold and snowy spells in January and February. Then, if we take what we actually got from mid to late January through most of February, with a very active Azores high at times and very mild, we could have had some genuine warmth through late March and April. The problem with the mildness is as last year it was focused so heavily in February. If we look at mean maxima on the CET we had 8.4, 10.0, 10.2 and 13.0 for the first four months last year. This year we have had 7.6, 10.7, 11.5 and 13.7. For both years, I think most people would say if you knock a degree each off February and March and add 2C to April it would have been a dramatic improvement.

baddie It’s more down to the air source. You can get the same effect in winter months but obviously it’s a lot colder. That said, I’ve also seen some pretty stunning sunsets from Atlantic sourced setups.

Still hard to see much of a warmup on the cards, especially further north, if the 12z GFS turns out to be anywhere near the mark. Still early days for my thoughts on May. Looking even further ahead, as I mentioned a stronger polar vortex than normal going into May is a positive sign for at least the early summer. The ECM forecast fits this idea - maybe a sign to watch out for, though we still have a few days left for the forecast to change before the start of May itself. The ECM 00z meteogram (don't have time to wait for the 12z) shows temperatures recovering and moving above average by the turn of the month, but it's hardly anything spectacular. Wouldn't surprise me if we scrape an odd day or two into the high teens or low 20s, especially further south, but it's not anything to write home about really by this point in the year. Beyond the turn of the month at this early stage we still see a tendency for things to turn cooler again with a further northerly outbreak. Summary In short, plenty of time for things to change from here, but right now it looks like a very low chance of seeing anything notably warm in the next 10 days or so.

Couldn’t find a thread for this but looking at the videos online it is amazing and just like the severe calima red sky event just before the pandemic in 2020; and we all know what followed! Some might see this as a bad omen but i see it’s natural beauty and it’s rarity. Please post vids & pics below of the red apocalypse skies Maybe someone has summoned a certain Greek God named Cerberus from the River Styx? Love it

If only we could have temps like tonight all summer nights...clear skies, gentle breeze. would be perfect

carinthian now that is some snow, not the piddling amounts we have to put up with. It’s bad enough when wagon wheels and mars bars are affected by shrinkflation but these days it’s even snowfall.

*Stormforce~beka* the grey skies act as an illuminator Currently finished the monthly percentages of rainfall since last January….just awful is all I can say. Just about to start sunshine percentages then I will post my findings for Exeter

SunSean Shap bottom, but the last 2-3 days have been quite sunny. A very poor month for sunshine on the cards.

How's it sooo light right now?!

Metwatch My 9.6 looks not far off, first time in ages I might be at least 0.5 degrees within final figure. Certainly a contrasting month CET wise.

Iceaxecrampon I know Keldas well, the bluebells are a treat. I remember visiting them in mid May 2020, north slopes and they were in bloom, whereas they were barely out same time 2021. Another fine day here, turning into a decent dry spell in the Lake District and we look best placed to see least rain in England in days ahead..As said this is the lakeland dry season, all quite normal to see eastern and south parts plagued by cloud this time of year whilst we bask in sunshine. Chilly frosty nights at present.

WillinGlossop Yes, its an impressive covering for so late but not a great fan of snowfall at this time of year. Just want some warm sunshine now but so much more appealing is a continental climate with its more extreme variety of weather. Hope you lot get some decent warmth and sunshine soon ? C

Evening all Early stages in viewing the 12Z output but, other than GFS, there seems broad agreement for the LP to end up just to the west of the British Isles by next Monday introducing South or South westerly winds so something a bit warmer or less cool for many. 12Z GFS OP goes a slightly different route keeping the LP to the south and building heights to the north after which it's a north-south split under an E'ly airflow. Dry to the north but windy but with the trough in charge further south a greater chance of rain or showers and quite high rainfall totals for the far south up to the first May Bank Holiday weekend. Control is more unsettled until far FI. ECM at T+168 follows to an extent with a good old-fashioned late April easterly (GFS 12Z OP at T+168 next to it for comparison):

Although officially not starting until June 1st, quite obviously the Atlantic now running at a record high temperature and lots of moisture over Africa we could well see a very early start.

Keldas. Glenridding Yearly visit to see the Bluebells. But we’re a week or so too early The Legendary Lung buster start up to Helvellyn. If you know you know. For a change we descended. Classic Grizedale. Memories of Nethermost Pike ahead in full winter conditions many a time. St Sunday to the left. Chill N NE breeze. Decent in The Sun when it broke. A good day.

carinthian wowza

NCAR updraft helicity for sat, Kansas and Oklahoma stands out with Kansas having a less discrete mode. Oklahoma has 2 prominent discrete storm tracks. As posted by @Eagle Eye the 12z NAM has a very, very potent environment, we'll see if the trend sticks but sat could genuinely be the highest end threat the plains has had for many years. Soundings from Oklahoma Soundings from Kansas