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  2. Difficult to have much confidence in any detail outside the short range with the gfs, given the differences in 12 hours
  3. I've noticed as each day has passed, the forecast is showing less and less rain. Apart from Wednesday, the rest of the week doesn't look particularly bad, just breezy.
  4. Western France is getting a little more exciting. Need to start seeing some of this potential being forecast further east... I’m not letting the north and west have all the fun this year
  5. Things getting a lot more interesting now with this band. I expect the northern side to show a lot more activity in the next few hours given that it’s entering higher levels of CAPE
  6. A dry day with extensive high cloud and a few spells of hazy sunshine. At 1700 g.m.t Temp; 14.7c Max today; 16.9c Min last night; 9.0c Grass min; 4.3c. Rainfall from 0800-1700 g.m.t; 0.0 mm Sunshine today so far; 1.82 hrs Mean wind speed; 17 mph E Highest gust today; 28 mph E at 1234 g.m.t 7 oktas Cs and As Vis; 65 km.
  7. Certainly been a whiff of smoke from the moorland fires over the last couple of days. The moors need rain but people also need to stop going up there with bbq's.
  8. But the end shows some promise, of better things to come? If one squints hard enough! Ensemble's stuck on 00Z!
  9. Today
  10. Keep us updated I'll be watching the radar to see what if anything comes of it! ,
  11. Yeah sounds promising. Gotta love the TotallyAccurateForcasts
  12. Current TAFs for tomorrow sound very promising: Manchester (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms and hail): 231106Z 2312/2418 09009KT CAVOK PROB30 TEMPO 2318/2412 12015G25KT PROB30 2400/2410 8000 TEMPO 2413/2418 7000 SHRA BKN045 PROB30 TEMPO 2413/2418 3000 +SHRA TSGS BKN014 BKN025CB BECMG 2415/2418 15015G25KT= Birmingham (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms): 231106Z 2312/2412 08012KT CAVOK TEMPO 2402/2408 9000 PROB30 2403/2408 BKN006 TEMPO 2408/2412 6000 SHRA PROB30 TEMPO 2409/2412 08015G25KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN011CB= Cardiff (heavy rain showers, thunderstorms): 231106Z 2312/2412 07010KT CAVOK BECMG 2315/2318 VRB04KT PROB40 TEMPO 2320/2409 SHRA BKN045CB BECMG 2321/2324 07010KT TEMPO 2409/2412 6000 SHRA PROB40 TEMPO 2409/2412 08015G25KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN011CB=
  13. I think we’re starting to see some convection going on now over Central -Southern England; radar showing a line of precipitation and satellite showing some height to the clouds over that region. Models show CAPE and theta-e starting to increase towards the SW and peaking around 8pm, so hopefully this band can use this instability to trigger off some thunderstorms
  14. Not sure if it will amount to much, but a line of precip seems to be developing just West of Oxford, stretching down to the S coast.
  15. Looks like there could be plenty more too, come next Thursday...maybe even some very localised Killer Cape!
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