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Certainty on models have been quite good for the past few weeks, although there is some uncertainties past day 6 on majority this morning. Of course the likelihood of a dry settled warm spell seems unlikely, but there were hints a few days ago, and the MET ensembles for 192 seems a little interested in the idea. Icon also interested this morning on a decent ridge from the Azores. Wouldn't rule anything else, seems the uncertainty is coming from the stratosphere behaviour I believe. We all know how rapidly changes can occur.

Precisely, just posted this in the moans thread. This time of year always has a greater likelihood of northern blocking, but a late season SSW simply locks in a pattern of high latitude blocking for far longer than we’d otherwise expect, which more often than not results in the UK being a trough magnet or keeping us under cool northerly or easterly winds. It happened last year too. Until this works its way through the trop, we’re unlikely to get anything substantially warm and dry until mid May at the earliest.

Dont get me wrong Saturday still has fail modes, especially regarding morning convection but this 500mb chart could seriously be in a meteorology textbook page for what a significant tornado outbreak trough in the plains looks like. Strong belt of flow rounding the base and ejecting into the area at peak heating, negative tilt, divergence aloft. Recent trends have slightly slowed the trough ejection and further amplified the jetstreak. This is important, a faster ejection=less time between morning convection and our main event. Comparing past significant tornado events with this type of trough ejection the one that sticks out to me as looking the most similar is May 24th 2011, will we reach that ceiling? Im not convinced at the moment but the potential is there. Nam comes into range in about 2 hours interesting to see what it shows. Two other failure modes i can think of are lingering cloud cover and storms firing too early to make use of LLJ, also not 100% with lapse rates but lets see what CAMS do. CSU very potent though Ben Sainsbury I still think late may and early june has very good potential, big cape storms that only require a gust of wind to surge the RFD and drop a photogenic cone. Good luck out there!

In Absence of True Seasons it’s cold everywhere at the moment: Barring the last week or so, this Spring has definitely been warmer than last year but it’s been equally wet or even wetter. I place part of the blame for last year and this year down to two late season SSW’s, which enhance what is an already strong seasonal likelihood of northern blocking. The Uk as a result becomes a trough magnet, with higher pressure at northern latitudes stopping our traditional pattern of low pressure to the NW and high pressure to the SE from setting up. Even without a SSW, northern blocking is common at this time of year, but I think the SSW has locked this pattern in far longer than it otherwise would, just as it did last year.

weather has been drivel

In Absence of True Seasons we’re only 14 hours of sunshine ahead of you, its cold too

Mike Poole thanks Mike I'm afraid I'll breach every NW filter imaginable if I type what I really think of the last 6 months of "weather " locally. As always, in unsettled phases the NW cops for the majority of Atlantic systems but this period has been beyond the pale. Like many others I'm desperate for some warmth and sunshine but I'm struggling to see anything resembling this on the 00z NWP . Late season SSW is disastrous for Spring so I always get a feeling of dread when we see SSW's in late Winter. One year we'll see a major SSW in November and get the benefit HL blocking when most of us want to see it,ala Dec/Jan NOT April/May..

mike57 Would not be at all surprising there has been snow over the NYM this morning It is absolutely baltic here in Sheffield it feels more like December here then April it is absolutely vile.

AWD Yes, but you (should) also get some days around 18c and even above it, too. in my area, this is even more true. In London, I expect mid to high teens pretty regularly by the end of April. As it stands, we are heading into May struggling to even get into double digits, and with constantly dark, overcast and drizzly skies to boot. Truly grim. This would be well-suited to mid February, or late November, not nearly halfway through the year. This Spring is honestly probably going to be worse than last year's at this rate, and that's honestly an impressive feat considering how dire Spring 2023 was (especially in the East as we fully missed out on the good 2+ weeks of sunny, warm weather folk elsewhere got in May, as we were stuck under continual N.Sea cloud and cold breeze).

TwisterGirl81 Enjoy it...9c and drizzle here in Essex. Actually quite interesting that exactly the same pattern seems to be manifesting as in Spring 2023. Cool, cloudy, wet Spring, but the South-West fares better than us in the East. West overall is generally better in these set-ups. parts of Ireland recently have been 15-18c and sunny, whilst we've barely scraped double digits for nigh-on a week over here.

ANYWEATHER It looks like the 15 hour slot isn't available currently on the API, the rest is in though. We run the data as soon as it's on there.

I have to say, I am seeing very little of hope of a substantial warm up in any of the models. Maybe something on ECM clusters 2 and 3 in the T192-T240 timeframe: But otherwise the pieces aren’t in the right place, and that doesn’t look like changing on the T264+: Maybe clusters 3 and 4 show an inkling of setting in the region of the UK. What we can say, is that the outlook is not wall to wall unsettled, like the earlier part of spring which is a pyrrhic victory, I suppose. At this time of year, I am usually on the lookout for signs of any self-reinforcing pattern setting up with an eye to summer, but no signs of that at all. First steps would need to be a build of some sort of heat over the near continent of which there is absolutely no sign, GFS 0z T360, for example: Meanwhile, above us the final warming in the stratosphere looms, in a few days on GFS 0z: The change to easterlies as shown (blue) on the left plot at 10 hPa 60N has been very clearly advertised for a while now, but there is no big driver to affect our weather with this, that (from the SSW) petered out a couple of weeks ago, and the strat is drifting now into summer mode as the vortex disappears. So one hopes the weaker drivers of summer edge the tropospheric patterns to something more favourable in due course, but for now the wait continues…

Hi, just wondering why the Ecm is very late uploading today, and why isn't it's runs complete by 8 GMT time and 9 bst time as it's always over running and never finished on time . And I've also found that there are missing charts as you flick through the Ecm......Thanks. ..☺

SunnyG Yes, many such references can be found throughout historical writings haha. The oldest one I've read was in Tacitus' (the roman historian) Agricola & Germania. I quote: "The climate is foul. The sky is overcast with continual rain and cloud, but the cold is not severe. The duration of daylight is beyond the measure of our zone. The nights are clear and, in the distant parts of Britannia, short, so that there is but a brief space separating the evening and the morning twilight. If there are no clouds, the sun’s brilliance, they maintain, is visible throughout the night. It neither sets nor rises, but simply passes over. That is to say, the flat extremities of earth with their low shadows do not permit the darkness to mount high, and nightfall never reaches the sky or the stars". Highlighted the most interesting part lol, especially seeing as it mentions that the cold is not severe, and this was nearly 2000 years ago (I thought we had tonnes of proper cold, regular snow, etc "back in the day". ). This is coming from a Roman perspective too, so pretty much anything fairly chilly would've been 'cold' to him, so indeed, Britain must've always been largely pretty mild, but often wet and overcast...aka, what we have now.

@TwisterGirl81 It doesn’t take much or long to dry out & harden top soil. Water doesn’t hang around there too long and soon seeps down to subsoil & bedrock levels. It’s why plants need watering regularly, even if the weather pattern isn’t particularly settled or dry.

AWD well if we receive the 2 inches of rain weather outlook are predicting by the weeks end that means we will have had another month of nearly double average rainfall, it’s honestly becoming like a sick joke now having said that we’ve not had much if any rainfall for 2 weeks and the ground has started to crack at allotment, this surprised me given how much rain we have received I thought the water table would be super high, maybe all the windy days dried it out quicker. I’m actually desperate to get my water collection water butts Installed by Friday at my allotment as I know at some point it’ll flip and we won’t see rain for weeks on end, Sod’s Law but I’m not going to mad about it

SunSean True true! Although, IMO, that's just because of the propensity (well, near-guarantee) of our climate to deliver garbage grey/wet sewage the vast majority of the time lol, not some sort of special accuracy of British meteorologists in forecasting cloudy/wet weather. The forecasts for 2 weeks away that show overcast with potential rain have a far likelihood of manifesting, than the forecasts that show fully sunny, dry weather, purely from a probability standpoint. I mean, we could sit here right now and make a prediction that, on the 21st of April 2025, or the 9th of October 2026, it will be "15c and overcast, with a 40% chance of rain", and I imagine there'll be a decent enough chance of it being pretty accurate.

Wednesday 24th April 2024 Variable cloud overnight, a little showery rain. Sunny spells developing this morning. 24-hour maximum 11.6c 24-hour minimum 4.4c Minimum temperature on grass 3.6c Maximum wind gust: Midnight to Midnight) 11.0 mph N Rainfall total = 0.8mm Conditions at 09:00 GMT 4 Oktas Cumulus humulis, mediocris Visibility >10 miles Temperature: 9.4c Humidity 66.2% Wind Direction N force 3 Barometer 1017.7mb falling Yesterday. Light rain eventually stopped last evening leaving a night with variable cloud. A few bright spells this morning, turning overcast after mid morning. The afternoon saw a few bright and sunny spells, also a few showers scattered around.

SunnyG I suppose I have become conditioned now to a continental style climate after nearly 20 years. The thought of facing a British summer brings shivers to me now as I am a right softy ! I still remember in fear of playing cricket wearing 3 sweaters at the start of the season when winds blew off the Yorkshire coast towards Wetwang CC... Brr. C

Looks like there’s a weak front/trough moving South just like yesterday. Amusingly yesterday’s light rain/showers narrowly missed to my West and today’s looks like being a narrow miss to my East! Hoping it will help the sky clear into the afternoon like happened yesterday. Although there have been some brief sunny spells so far.

Sentinel Bacteria in the sea will be transported away from the source by underwater currents, wind and wave action. Yes it will be diluted but it can still infect. Good luck anyway, I hope you don’t fall sick when you do take the plunge

I totally agree with you there. We are definitely due something prolonged and above average after enduring a perpetual Autumn for what seems like forever. Trouble is warmer air and warmer SST’s allow more moisture into the air, develops more cloud and with winds sourced from the Atlantic direction being our default weather source, this equates to said cloud heading in our direction and more rain as we’ve been seeing for an age now. That’s not to say there won’t be exceptions or breaks in the pattern, there hopefully will, just that like getting snow in winter, it’s ruddy hard work!!

CryoraptorA303 Hundreds and thousands of people threading all over it and kept short too, that has to have an impact.

Morning All, an overcast yet dry start to the day, after an overnight low of 2.8°C at: 02:51, currently 9.6°C, RH73% and light air movement from the N. From Above On Golden sands, perfect channel crossing weather