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  2. Good post and yes the lower areas of pressure are the problem.the high cannot push north even if it's further west
  3. Yes a few snow showers around on this run even in the south, better than nothing, might get a slight covering in a few spots, all a long way off of course and plenty of time for potential "upgrades".
  4. 18z GFS continues with the toppling scenario by day 10 which is already shown in the ECM/GFS 12z mean runs. This has been the trend today since the 06gfs run raised the eyebrow this morning.We can see that some of the vortex is leaking back across the pole towards the Canadian side which is putting more pressure on the Greenland ridging. Anyhow that's today's trend- tomorrow may be different wrt timings and the amount of ridging but those blues spreading back across the pole are scrubbing any Greenland heights.
  5. Yes it looks like a toppler but not as much as previous run so a step in the right direction,it would certainly be a cold/fresh/clean few days with perhaps some wintry showers in the NE and night time frost's and not the zonal mush we normally see at this time of the year.
  6. I often find late November an exceptionally miserable time weather wise overall, sometimes we can strike lucky with a cold arctic blast or cold frosty conditions overhead even a bit of snow, but the most likely scene is a damp drab grey dank one, often with bouts of wind and rain. The outlook for the next few days at least (signs by next Thursday things will change to something brighter and colder), is of this ilk.. Mmm just have to grin and bear it. No denying this is a preety miserable time of the year.
  7. True, but small steps back in the right direction none the less. At least theres a chance of snow showers moving in now in the NE. Never know, 00z might revert back to a big boom run, things are chopping and changing backwards and forwards.
  8. Your correct.it has to topple with the energy not going up the west coast of greenland or SSE.needs a weakening around Greenland to allow heights to extend north
  9. It will topple, but it’s a step back towards a better outcome for coldies - after the evening runs this is no bad thing!!!
  10. I could be wrong and probably will, Snowray. But just looking at that chart screams toppler..
  11. Weather history stats make for good observation, we've been draw a very short straw in recent years for cold and snow 4 out of the last 6 ranking near or at the bottom of the league.. Look at 62-63.. nearest winter 78/79 since only half the marks. I'd be happy with anything above 50 at least.. preferably 100, and to be greedy 150 or more..
  12. Yes it was there on the 12z but further east. and it pays us a visit at 210 with colder air tucking in behind it from the north. all a conjuncture at this range with all the chopping and changing early on but it's an upgrade to the 12z gfs.
  13. The high seems to be further west in the Atlantic, a better run this.
  14. Then topple. The MetO seem bullish on colder weather to approach us. So some hope to be upbeat. As I’ve stated before, Ignore the MetO at your peril. I’ve seen The ECM & the GFS promise the goods only for the MetO to have none of it. And they’ve been correct.. anyway, onto the GFS 18z and let’s see how many low pressure systems it can spew out across the Atlantic. Lol
  15. That low over Newfoundland isn’t moving much at 162, could be a decent ridge develop ahead of it on this run looking at it - and further West as mentioned above . much better, is that a little trigger low near Iceland!! At 192 it looks better still, keeping West so we should get a more portent northerly
  16. This looks a better run with the high ridging earlier and a lot further west 18z 156 v 12z 162
  17. Oh it was just a flying visit ( business trip) am back in the warm south now 🏝
  18. Yes Si - Knockers chart, i suspect the high in the Atlantic will be shoved towards the UK. Of course i maybe wrong.. its there on 18z-
  19. Are you referring to the op/det runs? or the reply to Knocker's post ^ because i can't see one on the anomaly chart he posted,i know that it's a broad-brush of all the ens and won't show it but it does look like a clean mid to upper Atlantic ridge to me.
  20. lol does the AO have outliers? Edit: At least the NAO is less progressive
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