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  2. You know things are bad when you have to pluck one ensemble member out at 15 days away for a good chart!
  3. Bright this morning with a light frost hanging on in the shade, 5C and still. My favourite river spot/walk is the stretch of the North Esk between the Rocks of Solitude and Gannochy Bridge where it tumbles over and through the Highland Boundary Fault
  4. It’s not as simple as just doing that though. Maximum temperatures in June can get up to the mid 30s, 16c above normal. There’s no way we would see 16c above normal (24c) in the UK in December (highest on record is 18c). In much the same way that the UK has seen -28c minima in winter, you wouldn’t see a night time minimum temperature of say -10c in the middle of summer.
  5. 4 of the great winters of the 20th century occurred close to solar maximum
  6. Few Sherberts? GFS FI looks nothing whatsover exceptional and out of the ordinary.
  7. Every effort will be made to get tatties up before deep penetrating frosts for a number of reasons,firstly drought conditons in Europe have reduced their yields,(prices rising and or minimum delivery tonnes on contracts with penallties applied if not supplied) secondly a lot of ground is too wet in England to carry machinery mainly in NE England where a lot of chipping supplies come from and thirdly lifting in such conditions will lead to high wastage losses in store due to soft rots. Some will be abandoned till maybe April and surviving tatties will be lifted. Another question mark hangs over carrots in England where a lot of ground they are in is too wet to carry the straw bedding machines which are used to protect from frost overwinter. Contract stipulations will apply here too although excess acreage is usually planted. Currently 6c bright and dry
  8. It's a reasonable start here in the far south-east, and to prove me wrong about the tatties it would appear to be the start of harvesting the rest of the crop. Didn't get any pics of the harvest as Fergus the Spaniel went mental at them.
  9. With a generally dismal outlook for cold weather fans, let's hope P9 of the GEFS trumps the pack!
  10. Had a knock on the door at 7am this morning with replacements for bubs things. wasn't expected till Monday. Very happy.

  11. Today
  12. Indeed they are away from the Highlands. And it's going to get rarer with the world warming up. As I mentioned before for for fans of cold and snowy weather,your be better of booking a holiday somewhere in Canada to guarantee yourself a couple of weeks of proper winter weather with deep snow and go and enjoy it with your kids. What's the point of chasing it anymore,for weeks here in the UK ,and when it does arrive,it very rarely lasts more than a few days, accept for the occasional year British winter suck for deep powdery snow,should stop the chase ,but I still do every winter lol
  13. Morning all. May I offer this wider picture 144t from UKMO best of this mornings runs for slowing things down and allowing better prospects of colder conditions to last a bit longer than a day or so. Quite a sharp trough from the Norwegian Sea pushing south, this would allow Arctic direct flow into Scotland by Friday morning. Will it hold ? This charts starting to show a change in pattern . Note the rise in pressure further east and build of pressure in the Western Atlantic, this will help to slow the zonal train down . For cold to get locked in over the British Isles the lows coming from the N Atlantic need to start to slide SE . Would be interesting to view the extended UKMO charts at 168t to see if this process will take place but of course we have no access to view the pressure profile further east. Just food for thought in the hunt for cold fans. C
  14. The second half? The first half hasn't started yet! Let's get to the 22nd Dec first before writing off half the Winter. First couple of days coming into view - Miles into FI I know but hardly disastrous charts to see in Winter, they will be different next run but just showing writing off the first half of Winter at this point would be foolish.
  15. My river is the Gala Water, closely followed by the Tweed. I like Peebles too, but also like the lonely bits of the young Gala Water.
  16. Bath caved in during the second half against Clermont and their poor start to the season continues
  17. Rain may turn to snow on its back edge during Tuesday evening for Scotland and perhaps parts of northwest England and wales shown mostly on hills. Don't take the detail too literally at this stage from the chart below but the potential is shown. GFS..
  18. Interesting to see the orientation of UKMO at T120 is subtly different from GFS, delivering potential for a much more potent north-westerly on Thursday/Friday. Contrast this with UKMO which is quite juicy:
  19. Below, is a quote from a Post I made on Wednesday Evening: T/Storm 2. 6th August 1981. "Myself and my first Wife, were House-sitting at the time, for friends of ours. The Husband was a Groundsman at Alleyn's School, in Dulwich. I worked around a brisk 20 minute walk, from our friend's House. I can remember I had a very brisk walk to work that Morning at around 9 AM, as I was being "chased" by an "evil" coppery coloured Sky, which was emitting ever louder, peals of thunder. Managed to reach work, before the Tropical style rain began. I think there was a 2nd t/storm around 10 AM but this was short-lived. The "Piece de Resistance", was still to come and gave this violent, thundery spell, it's "Daytime-Darkness" tag!! If memory serves, just before Lunchtime the sky grew darker and darker. In a short time, the sky was as black, as Midnight. But for quite a while, nothing happened and an eerie silence, ensued. Then "All Hell broke loose". Frequent overhead Lightning and Thunder, with Rain of an intensity, I've rarely seen. The thundery Weather finally moved away." As a postscript to that account, I'd like to add an image, taken during that Event. It appears in the Surrey County Weather Book and is reproduced with the kind permission of Ian Currie, who co-wrote the Book with Mark Davison. The image is entitled, "When Day became Night": It depicts the scene at Lower Kingswood, on the A217, about 6 Miles South of Epsom, in Surrey. This Photo was taken at around Midday and was typical of the intense darkness experienced, in and around the London area, at that time. I was working in East Dulwich, S,E,London. We experienced the same intense darkness, after a few minutes of eerie calm, all hell broke loose. This was the 3rd, and most intense cell, during that very violent 3 hours, between 9.30 and 12.30 on the Morning of, 6th August 1981. Regards, Tom.
  20. The ecm also unsettled for the latter half of the run and the mobile Atlantic could well include some wintry incursions
  21. Could go either way looking at the Jet, digging south to our West, heights rising to our SSE!!
  22. EC has potential for those up North and with decent altitude... I would take a stab at anywhere over 300m in the north west will do quite well , And ends a little differently to previous op runs.. Jet digging south towards the Canaries..
  23. Thankfully the ECM has other ideas 240 still to rôle out but hopefully more WAA in towards Greeny not sure where this is going!! Anywhere but a euro high will do , it does look like heights are pushing up from N Africa though
  24. The hideous Euro trash high making an unwanted appearance on the GFS this morning. Seen that wretched high ruin countless winters since the late 80s
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