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Azazel April and May have the prospect of summer to come and for this reason I always feel are the most positive of months.

Just saw this thread. In terms of where we stand globally - the first three months of the year, and likely the first four, have all outperformed last year. The key will be the speed of the ENSO transition, I imagine. Both the Arctic and Antarctic are currently running a bit below average. Global temperature records are being driven primarily by extraordinary and record-breaking warmth in the tropics at the moment. Here is the ENSO plume projection initialised in March. The consensus is currently for neutral ENSO or weak La Nina for Northern Hemisphere summer, and moderate La Nina for the Northern Hemisphere autumn. If we see this slow down a little, it would increase the probability of 2024 surpassing 2023. Right now it's probably still too early to say.

Suspect a notably cool CET value for today. Max temp anywhere 13 degrees at Shoreham Airport, widespread low single digits mins. A widespread frost tonight as well. Colder than many a mean temp in Feb this year! Hope people have not been lulled into potting tender plants out early..

*Stormforce~beka* i apologise too, It’s important you get a break in the evenings, peace and quiet

Christ, i remember when this forum was weather based and not a resemblance of 'Facebook lite' or Mums.net

TwisterGirl81 I apologise too for my assumptions.

Wold Topper And the fact that La Nina summers are all October-like jokes.

*Stormforce~beka* I’m sorry if you took my comment the wrong way, my condolences

TwisterGirl81 So is telling someone their kids should have been in bed hours ago when you don't know anything about them or their ages and what time they go to bed or if anything is wrong such as being upset about a berevement that is stopping them sleeping ...

*Stormforce~beka* I wasn’t judging and I don’t recall mentioning I was childless but kind of a low blow regardless, not cool

Cheshire Freeze I'd quite like some pleasant late spring weather to be honest. I'd actually prefer not to have any ridiculous plume setups. Some nice classic spring weather in the low to mid 20s, and some summer weather in the high 20s or low 30s with thundery interludes would be absolutely fine. But as you say, it may be from one extreme to the other. In a way 2022 was like that - though May did produce some warmth at times, as did June, it was then July and August that kicked things up to ridiculous levels.

B87 so just a 'feeling' nothing data based? Thank you, enjoy your evening.

Wold Topper I feel like we will have a 1998/2016 style summer. So nothing remotely summer like until maybe late July if we are lucky, but more likely August/September.

*Stormforce~beka* awwwweee ha

B87 can you explain your rational behind this claim or is it just a 'gut instinct' without any scientific basis? Asking for a friend

In Absence of True Seasons Oh yeah definitely, if we’ve had a stinker spring and/or summer then nice weather come Sept/Oct it does feel a bit wasted. Definitely felt that a bit in late Sept and early October 2008… Likewise cold in March and April after a naff winter.

In Absence of True Seasons That's because I looooooooooooooooove you all LOL Weather Enthusiast91 Too damn true!!

Jonnoramo87 The biggest problem with this April has been the lack of sun to be honest. Temperature wise this late April spell has been a bit below average and the earlier spell was well above average. But of course at this time of year the strength of the sun is far more important to the overall feel. The same average temperatures but with clearer skies bringing warmer, sunnier days and colder nights for most of it would have felt much warmer despite being the same statistically.

*Stormforce~beka* Who needs TV when you can just come on here?

Cheshire Freeze No we won't. I don't think we will have anything seasonal until maybe August/September. We only really had hot summers in 2018 and 2022 in recent years.

WYorksWeather I wouldn’t worry, we’ll be blasted into the furnace via blowtorch southerlys from Africa before long. It happens every summer now so I’m not sure why people get so het up about some cooler weather. I’d snap your hand off for a guaranteed 2/3 day spell of -15 uppers in deep winter.

Developing supercell on Ryans stream

raz.org.rain That's the first chart I've seen so far from an OP run this year that actually looks properly warm (in absolute terms - obviously reaching upper teens in January or February is ridiculous, but it's not properly warm no matter how anomalous it might be). Certainly a good chance of 20C being reached again I think next week, but that ICON run throws the cat amongst the pigeons a bit. The key is going to be as always whether it turns into anything more sustained, or whether it is just a brief affair before we transition back to cooler northerlies again. GFS and ECM withholding judgement tonight I think - warmer but not properly warm for most is how I'd characterise them, with only an odd few spots having any hope of reaching 20C. The first properly warm day in my book would be when we hit a widespread 20C, and the most favoured spots reach 23C or so. Watch and wait for now I think.

Showery morning with a definite hint of sleet first thing, nor surprising as 1c at that time; dry and reasonably sunny from lunchtime onwards. Max of 9c today, nice and warm in the sunshine, frigid in the shade. Some gorgeous cloud formations mid-afternoon... Suie viewpoint lovely as ever this evening (looking north/northeast).

snowblizzard hey you leave Learo alone! You’re talking about the woman I love! (Ok I’m using the Young Ones/Felicity Kendal gag here!)