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danm He was talking about it like it is a given and will last as long as the current rubbish we have endured. A couple of sunny and dry 35c days is nothing to worry about when we've had almost constant rain and cloud for months and months, and will have it later in the year too.

B87 my point was more that blasts of intense heat, as @Cheshire Freezewas talking about, are becoming more common. Even during average Summers. 2020 was a great example. A very warm mid July to mid August with an intense heatwave in early August.

WYorksWeather wonder if the ECM clusters support that? I think also the weather in the tropics should be taken note of. i reckon the warm IOD is also causing problems as well with the atmosphere. If I'm honest we need something a bit more neutral across all areas so something more sustained can come off. According to world climate service it'll be a while before we get a positive AO/NAO combination. To be fair also I am starting to find them very credible indeed.

No this is first El Niño winter since 2018/19… La Niña has been dominant. The Arctic 80N+ hasn’t been abnormally warm either in 2024 so far. There isn’t a good correlation on poles, tenuous at best.

danm A few days hot blast in an otherwise cool and unsettled summer (2015, 2020 etc) does not consitute a hot summer to me. 2018 and 2022 were good throughout. 2019 seemed like a fairly average summer, with the increased temp in July and August making up for the rain and lack of sun in June. 2021 was an awful summer. 2023 had a great June, awful July and poor August (a bit like 2017 with the July and August switched). 2016 had probably the worst June ever, a mixed to poor July and a good August. 2015 was alright in June and the first 10 days of July. The rest was bad. 2014 was good but the hottest day was only 30.3c. 2013 was good in July and August. 2012, 2011, 2008 and 2007 were awful. 2009 and 2010 were mixed, but August 2010 was one of the worst ever.

We’ve had several hot blasts in recent years, not just 2018 and 2022. Those two summers were exceptional. The number of 35c+ days has increased significantly over the last 5 or 6 years.

Azazel April and May have the prospect of summer to come and for this reason I always feel are the most positive of months.

Just saw this thread. In terms of where we stand globally - the first three months of the year, and likely the first four, have all outperformed last year. The key will be the speed of the ENSO transition, I imagine. Both the Arctic and Antarctic are currently running a bit below average. Global temperature records are being driven primarily by extraordinary and record-breaking warmth in the tropics at the moment. Here is the ENSO plume projection initialised in March. The consensus is currently for neutral ENSO or weak La Nina for Northern Hemisphere summer, and moderate La Nina for the Northern Hemisphere autumn. If we see this slow down a little, it would increase the probability of 2024 surpassing 2023. Right now it's probably still too early to say.

Suspect a notably cool CET value for today. Max temp anywhere 13 degrees at Shoreham Airport, widespread low single digits mins. A widespread frost tonight as well. Colder than many a mean temp in Feb this year! Hope people have not been lulled into potting tender plants out early..

*Stormforce~beka* i apologise too, It’s important you get a break in the evenings, peace and quiet

Christ, i remember when this forum was weather based and not a resemblance of 'Facebook lite' or Mums.net

TwisterGirl81 I apologise too for my assumptions.

Wold Topper And the fact that La Nina summers are all October-like jokes.

*Stormforce~beka* I’m sorry if you took my comment the wrong way, my condolences

TwisterGirl81 So is telling someone their kids should have been in bed hours ago when you don't know anything about them or their ages and what time they go to bed or if anything is wrong such as being upset about a berevement that is stopping them sleeping ...

*Stormforce~beka* I wasn’t judging and I don’t recall mentioning I was childless but kind of a low blow regardless, not cool

Cheshire Freeze I'd quite like some pleasant late spring weather to be honest. I'd actually prefer not to have any ridiculous plume setups. Some nice classic spring weather in the low to mid 20s, and some summer weather in the high 20s or low 30s with thundery interludes would be absolutely fine. But as you say, it may be from one extreme to the other. In a way 2022 was like that - though May did produce some warmth at times, as did June, it was then July and August that kicked things up to ridiculous levels.

B87 so just a 'feeling' nothing data based? Thank you, enjoy your evening.

Wold Topper I feel like we will have a 1998/2016 style summer. So nothing remotely summer like until maybe late July if we are lucky, but more likely August/September.

*Stormforce~beka* awwwweee ha

B87 can you explain your rational behind this claim or is it just a 'gut instinct' without any scientific basis? Asking for a friend

In Absence of True Seasons Oh yeah definitely, if we’ve had a stinker spring and/or summer then nice weather come Sept/Oct it does feel a bit wasted. Definitely felt that a bit in late Sept and early October 2008… Likewise cold in March and April after a naff winter.

In Absence of True Seasons That's because I looooooooooooooooove you all LOL Weather Enthusiast91 Too damn true!!

Jonnoramo87 The biggest problem with this April has been the lack of sun to be honest. Temperature wise this late April spell has been a bit below average and the earlier spell was well above average. But of course at this time of year the strength of the sun is far more important to the overall feel. The same average temperatures but with clearer skies bringing warmer, sunnier days and colder nights for most of it would have felt much warmer despite being the same statistically.

*Stormforce~beka* Who needs TV when you can just come on here?