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  2. Surprised it’s 10.2°C here at the moment as it certainly doesn’t feel like it, even if it doesn’t feel as cold as this time yesterday when it was in low single figures already.
  3. I know others have responded on this, but I wanted to add one comment. This does depend on location, but I think I'm correct in saying that since the turn of 2011, for all the major snow events that have impacted my location in Oxfordshire bar one, a SSW has been implicated! If we take as read a warming world, a SSW, for the southern UK at any rate, seems to be rapidly becoming pretty much the only ticket to cold....and yes, it is an uncertain one with no guarantees, 66% success rate...that looks like the reality of the situation. So to the upcoming SSW, and I'm assuming that this is going to happen now. This has to be the focus of attention. The narrative of winter 2019/20 will now be largely determined by what happens after this event, so it is absolutely fascinating, and this thread will busy in the next few weeks.
  4. short term pain long term gain. gem would lead onto better things for december if that were to come off.
  5. The winter months are December, January and February. Please explain how a temperatures recorded in November, would be "the coldest temp recorded of winter 2019-2020"?
  6. Gem looking tasty cold 850s uppers sure to follow later on
  7. later gefs runs rather worrying for rainfall amounts, but plenty to keep us all interested loads going on. ecm was bit flat this morning, but wondering if this evenings ecm will show the same shallow wedge of heights into southern greenland as the later gem frames show. because that could help flip the nao negative..
  8. Think not mate would go down as the coldest temp recorded of 2019-2020 Winter and good bye.
  9. The tPV or Polar Lows are very mobile due to the lack of the usual trop PV pattern. So yes, it can and will change relatively quickly, as long as the tPV remains fluid. In fact that is possibly the most likely ongoing theme till if and when the tPV recovers. No concerted sign of this, yet!
  10. As usual, all the 'excitement' (as far as the GEF 12Z is concerned) lies way past the onset of unreliability...T+240 at best? I've also watched this Youtube presentation, which suggests that the upcoming SSW is not as-yet supported by the other models: Time to rein-in expectations?
  11. A dry very cold for November with sunny spells Max temp 4.4C, now 3.6C, Barometer 1015mb steady, Wind SSW, Rainfall Nil
  12. that Stafford if full of weirdos, LOL that many guys are obsessed/jealous of/with me, think I may know why, my bod, 9 stone and proud, suck it up suckers!
  13. GFS 12z has the following: Big warming there again, with the +4 isotherm in play.
  14. Tomorrow likely to the 600th spotless day of the minimum. Still a way to go to beat the 801 days from SC23/24 transition, but not completely out of the question given how few sunspots have been on offer during the second half of this year.
  15. Is that even possible? - a flabby low, heights to our north-west ( as per Steve's comments ) to what appears to be an incredibly angry chunk of Vortex... ? serious question.. it does appear to be a rather dramatic change in 3 days.
  16. JFF The GFS 12z FI showing upstream wave activity sending warmth to mid and high latitudes and possibly another cold spell for US northern states: A much more appealing NH profile with potential for cold spells for the UK...
  17. Overnight low of -6.3c, making it the coldest night of the autumn - so much for the Met Office forecast low of -2c Sunny to start with but rapidly clouding over, frost lifting in Aberdeen but stayed below freezing here (just, max of -0.2c). Light winds and back down to -1.9c at the moment, though expect that to rise in the near future. Met office outlook for here is deeply uninspiring, grey sludge for days on end.
  18. With another clear and cold start it was a very frosty drive to work this morning, -5/6C all the way between Alford and Inverurie. On the way back just before 4pm it was 0C in Inverurie, dropping back to - 2C in Alford and it's surrounds. Going by the still heavy frost in places it's not lifted all day, so likely an ice day for some. Now we start the slow climb back up to something more normal for November, but I'd say it's unlikely now for Nov to come in anything other than below average overall for NE Scotland. December and beyond is anyone's guess, especially given the lack of an organised polar vortex, with the strat vortex looking as if it's going to be under strain at worse.
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