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  1. Today
  2. I said this December would be a disaster for cold lovers didn't I, and I see no reason to think Jan or Feb will be much better. British "winters" are a waste of time.
  3. Cold rain and wind is next week's forecast for us up here in Old South Yorkshire. Worse kind of weather for me. Rather have it blazing hot with clear sky's in summer or cold and heavy snow in winter.anything in the middle seems pointless lol. Night all
  4. Daft to talk so far ahead, but I believe all 3 will be in place for 2020/21. +IOD a precursor to a switch to Nina next year, and QBO/solar variability should be a given.... Back to this year and we could do with the QBO transitioning as fast as possible, and that dipole fading by New Year. MJO transition plus possible vortex disruption end of Jan certainly suggests Feb as the peak opportunity this year. Latter half of Jan perhaps gets in on the act if luck runs our way....and after last year we are owed some.
  5. Cloudy and mild with a strong westerly wind gusting close to 50mph Temp 8.3c
  6. Yesterday
  7. Some gust charts from the ECM, Saturday night windy in Northern parts 50 to 60mph likely, Sunday lunchtime gusts in the 30s and 40s for most parts. Some of Scotland seeing around 40 to 50mph. Ireland windiest around the West coast gusts over 60mph, South West of England and Western Scotland seeing 50 to 60mph gusts by 9pm on Sunday. Ireland still the windiest with the South West coast seeing over 70mph and perhaps over 80mph, Over Sunday night into Monday morning windy across the whole country gusts in the 40s to 50mph for most some exposed parts over 60 to 70mph.
  8. Ahhh I am very fond of the tweed, had family in peebles so have visited there all my life... Have stood on the footbridge many a time watching it in a raging flow Models still teasing potential marginal events Model thread quiet
  9. Mild, cloudy and breezy with patchy rain. Maximum 12.8, minimum 7.9. Wind moderate SW.
  10. Evidence again that we saw mild zonal atlantic set ups in winter months gone now..
  11. My main goal is to get some pressure on that PV with some wave 2, to give us hope for the second half of winter, if we can achieve good things in the process of doing so then great.
  12. Shouldn't really comment on such long range output, but an interesting synoptical development, could result in a battleground scenario set up just ahead of christmas with energy perhaps splitting and the trough undercutting - all conjecture.. If above verifies it would also be the 9th year on the trot to feature a predominantly mild/very mild atlantic driven run in to christmas.. but then a possible change come christmas itself as has happened on quite a few occasions after such mild run ins, 2008, 2014 and 2017 good examples.
  13. A strong Scandi high looks good with all the cold piling there again after last week
  14. Always good to read your musings - would be interested to note last time we had a weak to moderate la nina, low solar and east qbo, can't be many years that featured all three. I agree that there are no strong drivers so it seems this year, but one feature that remains omni-present is for the jet to be deflected slightly further south than normal and has a meridional tilt to it - which if continues through winter will always expose the UK to some colder air from the north - perhaps nothing sustained, but not a mild fest such as 13/14 or 15/16. Next winter could see at least two of the factors quoted, solar year after minima and might still be holding on to an east QBO or at least only crawling out of one - perhaps a weak-moderate la nina might surface as well..
  15. LATE AUTUMN-EARLY WINTER RACING COMPETITION. SAT.7th DEC AINTREE. 1.30 - Selection 1 - wandrin star 2. - Ballydine (LEG 1 - Aintree, Sandown Trixie). 2.05 - Selection - Lady Shanawell nap 2.40 - Selection - Black Corton 3.15 - Selection - (LEG 2 - Aintree, Sandown Trixie). Kayf Aventure SANDOWN 1.50 - Selection - Espirit du large 2.25 - Selection - Smarty Wild 3.00 - Selection - 1. Dolos 2. Sceau Royal - (LEG 1 - Grade 1 Double). 3.35 - Selection - (LEG 3 - Aintree, Sandown Trixie). Houblon Des Obeaux
  16. I can attest to the 25mm or so yesterday, I'm used to cold and wet, but yesterday was particularly unpleasant!
  17. Category 9 - GRADE 1 DOUBLE. LEG 1: TINGLE CREEK CHASE (3.00 Sandown,Sat.) - Selection 1.- Dolos 2. - Sceau Royal LEG 2: PUNCHESTOWN CHASE (1.50 Punchestown, Sun.) - Selection 1.- Real steel 2. - Shattered love STAKE OPTION - Option 2 - 4 x 25p EACH WAY Doubles
  18. It is way above average, however I wouldn’t call it remarkable as it happens every winter, 6c above average in June would be about 26c and that’s hardly remarkable is it? December is after all the mildest winter month
  19. We haven’t had one of these in a while, between wind, rain and possible snow next week is looking rather interesting compared to past few weeks
  20. Yes strong standing wave currently in operation, helping fix a trough largely in our vicinity. And for those who prefer their winter relatively mobile and damp there is plenty to be interested in right now : +NAO in place for the most part with insufficient tropical/MJO forcing to retract the Azores high and no significant impacts from the stratosphere yet. But there is plenty to interest those who prefer their winter weather crisp and white if patience can be found - shortly I believe the MJO will begin its next cycle and while I think the IO cold pool will probably take some of the steam out of its progress there will nevertheless be a degree of amplification restored. In addition, once the short term interesting impacts of the +EAMT have pushed through next week and parts of the north and areas at elevation see some of the white stuff, we should see a period of Aleutian low/ Scandy high return....and that means wave 2 pressure on the vortex. This general pattern progress was fairly predictable from a fair distance....but we are creeping ever closer to a period when predictability will fall away. The end of December was never likely to produce sustained or deep cold this year, but snowpers will be looking for signs that the pattern is open to future change once we get towards January and the vortex passes its climatological peak, the MJO has another pass with perhaps a reduced +IO signature, and the QBO gets to its easterly phase. Timings on all of these are tough to get right, and timing will be critical in the end, but we must wait and see how transitions interact. I would still expect to see a greater chance of blocking returning in the final third and I notice signs of this in the long range clusters tonight. In the meantime the stormy Atlantic is in pole position overall, though a torque inspired surprise for some is not out of the question in a week’s time.
  21. That appears when you clear the system cache or cookie data. Hope that helps. If you don't clear the cookies and cache data for this site it shouldn't come up again and mods feel free to move my response into the appropriate thread if need be.
  22. Good evening. I know that this is in the wrong thread. But I'm using a smartphone to view this site as I'm working. And I keep getting a I accept message every page I look at on this site. Does anyone know how to disable it from a smartphone. Mods please can you help in anyway And move this message accordingly I didn't know which thread to use With this restriction popping up Thank you for your help and advice Steve ... sorepaw
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