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  2. Well you would think so, but these are interesting times, question what do you mean about GEFS legacy? I wasn't aware there was one, if there is where can you view it?
  3. Also you would think Micheal Ventrice or someone would post up the 10mb eps height and temperature anomalies if they looked interesting.
  4. I actually noted dr Cohen that the sample list was in a period of well known mild winters in W.Europe dominated by the Azores/SCEuro high when he put those maps out last winter.
  5. So forgetting how likely or unlikely it was, by your logic, if the lowest temperature of 2019 was recorded in October, or even August, you'd consider that the coldest temperature of the winter? What if the warmest temperature of the year was recorded in April, would that be the warmest temperature of the summer?
  6. Yes but if the EPS were going for it then the Met Office would not have been quite so bullish, surely they wouldn't go with a seasonal model if the number 1 mid range ensemble suite were showing it within D10-15, GEFS legacy not showing any warming whatsover.
  7. I didn't see anything in the forecast, but I guess it was a bit of a small area of rain. It was just peculiar how quickly it went from a heavy frost to nothing and then rain. It was less than 10 minutes as that's how long it took for my shower.
  8. heights are having ago around greenland. the azores heights are suppressed. but more interesting is the disrupting of the vortex so jet stream also maintaining a more southerly type location. pretty unsettled for awhile longer.
  9. Sunny Sheffield down to 5.4C -2.9C below normal. Rainfall for once unchanged.
  10. Came here to say this too. I think they were talking specifically about a technical SSW, i.e full zonal reversal. 3 GEFS members are going for that which they mentioned. So the GEFS isn’t really “going for it” either at this stage & they didn’t really go into detail about exactly what GLOSEA was showing.
  11. Here was me thinking the cold would go away but the rain would stay away to the end of the week.....................I look outside the window and it's raining. DO'H! That truly it for this spell of cold hopefully it will be back (sooner rather than later)
  12. The GEFS 12z has got me dreaming of a white..early december..please make it so..I mean snow!!!!❄
  13. But they aren't the most recent SSWs, the most recent there was 2008 and they are averaged over too long a period to see the impact on UK in my opinion. Take last year for example, it was widely regarded as a failure but it caused a really good snow event here, just didn't last long! To clarify, in my post I was talking about the period post 2010.
  14. Similar but slightly better heights around Greenland on GEM.
  15. I wished dr. Cohen wouldn't cut off at 0 meridian but above the 3 month temperature anomaly after the 7 most recent major mid-winter ssw's I indeed only checked for my location but if it doesn't get real cold in my location it sure as hell isn't getting cold in the UK (remember february 2012 , no one here does, 100-150 km east of London everyone does)
  16. After the incredible amount of rain this autumn (500mm+ here) I'd take anything which has a massive 1040hpa high slap bang over the top of the UK.
  17. They also could be suggesting it’s not seeing a ‘technical’ SSW but it may well be seeing a warming event ? Was a bit vague in that regard
  18. November - dark, cold, damp ugly and all of winter to look "forward" to. October can depend. If it's mild then I don't mind it. But this year's was terrible. In fact this has been the worst autumn I have ever experienced in living memory. After November, February is one of the most boring months. Winter just keeps on going. Still cold and boring. I find January OK because the feeling of a "New Year" starting gives me a psychological boost even though one could argue a "new year" starts every day.
  19. Anything to add to those images, or do people have to guess?
  20. Ice day here with temperatures failing to get above 0°C, very cold overnight and a hard frost which remained throughout the day.
  21. Yes, certainly is interesting. Their words were, '3 runs of the ensemble' - the american model. I do remember a while back a similar thing happening and Fergie saying that nothing was appearing on their model, and to my knowledge, it was correct.
  22. Confidence? More flying by the seat of my pants to be honest mate! The uncertainty is huge! I'm suspicious of all modelling at the moment, for different reasons, but the trend seems to be towards an SSW. However, that giant toadstool from my nightmare the other day looms large!! Edit, to feb's point above, it isn't within the range of the ECM on the Berlin site yet?
  23. the vortex is under some serious stress though its clear to see by the segments flapping all over the northern hemisphere defanatily has a southerly tracking jet compared to recent years well since the deluge of 2014. and its been nippy already. some pretty erratic going ons in the world of weather. last couple of years has been pretty interesting. but i do agree we have all been here before though.
  24. I have to say it does look as if there is just the GFS / GEFS going for it to be honest.
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