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  2. Sssshhhhh HC!!! Nooo negative vibes! The gods listen!!
  3. Listed below, are the Betting Odds for the 1st Legs, of the Semi-Finals: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE "FANTASY" COMPETITION SEMI-FINALS(1st Leg) TUES.30th APR. DRAW M.1) 5/4 TOTTENHAM 12/5 AJAX 11/5 WEDS.1st MAY DRAW M.2) 8/11BARCELONA 11/4 LIVERPOOL 7/2 Please Copy/Paste your predictions for the above Matches, into the boxes provided below: M.1) RESULT: C/SCORE: M.2) RESULT: C/SCORE: Allocated "virtual" stakes in both Legs of the Semi-Finals, are as follows: PREDICTING RESULTS IN ALL MATCHES - £10 " C/SCORE " " " - £1 "GOALSCORERS" GOALS IN ALL MATCHES - £4  Your predictions for Results and Correct Scores, in all both Matches, need to be posted up by NOON 30th April. Thank you. Regards, Tom.
  4. They (a good many ardent CCDs are also rabid Brexiteers) invariably resort to their favoured MO...Simply calling someone a 'snowflake', 'remoaner', 'Trot' or whatever is far simpler than trying to understand? Take that old 'the CO2 vs GW curve is logarithmic' chestnut? Of course it's logarithmic; that's why CO2 doublings are used...But, why bother with a simple/truthful explanation when the opportunity for some obfuscation presents itself? And of course, as we've been told repeatedly, over the years, the globe was warmer back in the Mediaeval Warm Period...and who cares a jot that there were no thermometers anywhere back then! I wear my 'snowflake' moniker with pride!
  5. C'mon you Spurs!! I posted in the PL thread in early December, after Spurs lost to Chelsea i think, that Spurs need to concentrate on The Champions League (sorry i aint savvy enough to find the post and re-post it here). I was just jesting at the time. Now it has become 'serious' (so to speak), almost unbelieveable. You never know.
  6. ECM T240: I think with the current setup, we'd be monstrously unlucky to end up here at Day 10?
  7. That's a poor ECM 12Z after what we've been used to, it seems to have come out of nowhere in terms of deepening that low and moving it much further east. It would still produce a potentially very warm and humid day on Tuesday though. Hopefully just an outlier but I always worry when one model goes off the script suddenly like this.
  8. My (and darling wife) carbon footprint is dreadful. Since i retired early (Oct 2016) we have taken 40 flights (i.e. there and back). I'm defo more aware of climate change discussion but i suppose i remain sceptical. The issue that grates me is every time we have an extreme weather event in the UK (e.g. late Feb/March 2018 OR Summer 2018) the Climate change mouthpieces jump all over it. But how do you know these events are just not part of a cycle? A storm or flood is soon followed by climate change arguments? Did these UK weather events not occur 100 years ago or plus? Yes, i'm willing to listen but does every extreme weather event have to be down to climate change? How do you explain similar events from the 19th century? How do you explain the UK mediterranean climate that occured in medieval times? There was no heavy industry then. Am i being gloriously simple and uneducated ( no Uni education)? As for the plonkers disrupting London these last few days. Dont they have jobs? Do they realise they're affecting people's jobs, livelihoods? Do they care about their fellow human beings' environment? If i parked a car in the middle of Leicester Square and sat in it, how long would it be before the Met Plod moved me along? Just wondering? 1 hour, 2 hours, 2 days, 2 weeks? Maybe the Q could be a Q for a Sociology A level this June. Discuss.
  9. Read Storm of Steel by Ernst Junger, good book on WW1 from the German perspective.
  10. If we do join the list of 2.0 increases after 16th, please note, that isn't quite the same as second half, I just got into the investigation yesterday and took the provisional 16th value then from my data file the running CET on 16th of past years, but if we wanted to do first and second half that would need to be from the 15th CET to the 30th. Here's the same list revised to 15th and 30th (leaving out the 23rd midpoints) and searching the data for any additional 2.0 increases that might have happened. The following years were added thanks to the lower starting point of the 15th -- 1903 (2.2, had been 1.9 from 16th), 1785 (2.1, had been 1.7 from 16th) and 1789, 1830, 1858, 1902, 1964 and 1996 (all 2.0 and all were 1.6 to 1.8 from 16th to 30th). The revised data are in two columns since the entries are briefer. Theoretically some of the original entrants could be dropped if CET fell from 15th to 16th but this was not the case in any of the smaller increases near the boundary. The only year that lost any of its increase (due to 16th being colder than 15th) was 1885 (lost 0.1) -- that year is shown with an asterisk beside the increase. Each year has some symbol beside the increase, see the legend below the table for the various meanings (if you don't work them out intuitively). INCREASES of 2.0 in CET from 15th to 30th APRIL (30 out of 247 cases) YEAR ____ 15th __ 30th (increase)___________ YEAR ____ 15th __ 30th (increase) 1968 _____ 4.9 ___ 8.1 (+3.2)+++ ____________ 1994 _____ 5.8 ___ 8.1 (+2.3)+ 1824 _____ 4.6 ___ 7.4 (+2.8)= ______________ 1810 _____ 6.0 ___ 8.2 (+2.2)= 1816 _____ 3.9 ___ 6.6 (+2.7)+ ______________ 1903 _____ 5.3 ___ 7.5 (+2.2)n 1917 _____ 2.7 ___ 5.4 (+2.7)+ ______________ 2000 _____ 5.6 ___ 7.8 (+2.2)= 1958 _____ 4.7 ___ 7.4 (+2.7)= ______________ 1775 _____ 7.7 ___ 9.8 (+2.1)+ 1975 _____ 5.6 ___ 8.3 (+2.7)+++ ____________ 1785 _____ 6.3 ___ 8.4 (+2.1)n 1840 _____ 7.0 ___ 9.7 (+2.5)++______________1862 _____ 6.7 ___ 8.8 (+2.1)= 1842 _____ 5.3 ___ 7.8 (+2.5)+ ______________ 1893 _____ 8.2 ___10.3 (+2.1)+ 1885 _____ 5.2 ___ 7.7 (+2.5)* ______________ 1789 _____ 5.4 ___ 7.4 (+2.0)n 1984 _____ 5.6 ___ 8.1 (+2.5)+ ______________ 1830 _____ 6.9 ___ 8.9 (+2.0)n 1794 _____ 7.8 ___10.2 (+2.4)+ ______________1845 _____ 6.6 ___ 8.6 (+2.0)= 1839 _____ 4.0 ___ 6.4 (+2.4)+++ ____________ 1858 _____ 5.7 ___ 7.7 (+2.0)n 1924 _____ 4.5 ___ 6.9 (+2.4)+ ______________ 1902 _____ 5.5 ___ 7.5 (+2.0)= 1987 _____ 7.9 ___10.3 (+2.4)+++ ____________1964 _____ 6.7 ___ 8.7 (+2.0)n 1874 _____ 7.5 ___ 9.8 (+2.3)++ _____________ 1996 _____ 6.5 ___ 8.5 (+2.0)n (note, the largest decrease was 2.0 in 1778 from 10.2 to 8.2. ___________________________________________________ LEGEND -- symbols beside the increases * smaller increase than 16th to 30th (by 0.1) = same increase as 16th to 30th + larger increase than 16th to 30th (+0.1 for each + symbol) n ... new entries in table that did not qualify 16th to 30th
  11. Slightly warmer today at 16C but a very murky day with occasional bursts of very hazy sun. Little wind. Yesterday evening was wonderful with a bright moon and some lovely coloured high cloud at dusk. And a flat calm firth. We must make the most of it as this could be our summer!!
  12. The highlighted bit is simply wrong. I know, and well, someone on the march and I know others involved (I am not involved with XR). Again, I have to stress, you are (wrt them at least) simply wrong. But, hey maybe those I know are [insert insult here*] eh? *helpfully, I've listed some that have been used here in the last few days in my last post
  13. Good luck with the eyes - I know, from those who've had it done, that it's a pretty effective op! Beyond that I'm afraid I'm in fundamental disagreement with you - sadly. Maybe someone will be along to call me names eh? Snowflake? Extremist? Bully? Activist? Alarmist? Brainwashed? [edit - deluded?] - all have been used here recently...... What will work? Producing less ghg, here and world wide! Simple, we just do it. It's that or the damage continues. Everyone should agree on that but instead people get called names....
  14. Not the best of 12zs it has to be said for an extension of the heat!ecm at 144 hours the worse of the lot!!deep low to the south west!!!make the most of this between now and tuesday if we go according to ecm!
  15. ECM 12z fully going for the plume T120: Z500 and T850 charts: Let's see where it goes from here...
  16. Thanks Dev, QS and Ed for your replies above. Sorry not to be taking part in this discussion, but after a cataract op recently I an having difficulties seeing and typing correctly! So how are we going to make a serious attempt at becoming carbon neutral by 2025? You already agree it is not possible. That being true, is it correct that these people eg are plotting to destroy the holidays of people via the blocking of Heathrow?. Is it correct that they attempt to cause the maximum damage to those economies that are already leading the carbon dioxide removal race? For me if they really want to change the environment they should be challenging the SE Asian economies. Western economies have already proved that we can take the 'easiest apples from the tree', and this the first part can be implemented reasonably painlessly as shown by the UK and Europe and also in the USA. These gains can be made in the South eastern Asian economies tomorrow. Surely if climate change is the real target for these people, they should be attacking things like the Paris agreement, which provides more money for all of these developing economies. China is using this funding to build hundreds of coal powered power stations on a world wide basis. Forecasts now show that the Asian economies will produce 60 - 70% of the worlds CO2 in 10 years time. and yes Ed we have produced most of the CO2 already there, but that does not help the future. It will not be possible to carry out the next phase of this process without more technical innovation. New nuclear technologies, new battery storage techniques, etc this is where the western economies can move forward and produce a plan to 'save the world' for you. Unless you are one of the people, who want to bring about a change in the social infrastructure in the country, attacking the UK now in order to bring about a carbon neutral economy by 2025 will bring about at most a 0.01C change in the temperature by 2200, and a change of 0.3C if the whole of the Paris treaty is implemented (Ie carbon neutral emissions by 2150). You should now be spending all our investment money now on new technologies, not bringing about a reduction in terms of what we are currently producing, by utilising what we have today to invest in the future. Making reductions in what we already have will - 1) Not achieve your desired goals in terms of reducing temperatures. 2) Bring about greater disruption to humanity than will caused by climate change. This is why the approach of maximum disruption being proposed for worldwide use by XR, is all very pointless. Some of the responses above refer to the idea that I have called all alarmists as 'snowflakes'. A lot of the people on the marches are just being led by XR extremists who want to bring about a change in society. What is being demanded is impossible. Everyone is agreed. Anyone on here who can propose something that will work? MIA
  17. Very interesting, just read the whole article, well the free bit anyway. Just a thought on the NAWH from viewing the models over the last few years. It has been evident on the SST charts for a while now, but as to how it will affect UK weather, here the SST anomaly as at April 2016 and now 2019: If you think of the seasons prior, left chart rubbish winter, rubbish summer; right chart rubbish winter, glorious hot summer (ok yet to be confirmed but pattern similar to last year which was!). My point is that if there is a slow down in the AMOC aka the Gulf Stream intuitively you might have expected the opposite i.e colder winters and shorter summers for UK, but it actually may be shifting the opposite way?
  18. Though, somewhat perversely perhaps, the FV3 doesn't end nearly so badly: And, the GFS op is way down at the cold end of the ensemble:
  19. Who needs ticket touts when you have Barcelona..
  20. Today
  21. Managed 22.2°C with mostly hazy sunshine all day. MO went for 19°C but changed to 20°C this afternoon. It’s going for 21°C for tomorrow, so perhaps 23/24 isn’t out of the question.
  22. Been working out in the sunshine all day. Managed 20.9°C. Met Office were going for 18°C, WXSIM plumped for 21°C on the over night update.
  23. I think everybody must agree we desperately need rain this Spring and a lot of it.I have never seen such parched landscapes at this time of year in my lifetime. So many reservoirs are empty even in my area,fingers crossed the heavens open very soon. A repeat of last year would push the country to the edge.
  24. Light winds, dry and a maximum temperature of 14.5c today, though a lot more cloud today than yesterday. Still, a lot better than the rubbish at the start of the week. It appears that the upsurge in badger numbers has its benefits - for local garages... Was speaking to a mechanic today and apparently in the last few weeks they've had to repair two cars damaged due to them hitting badgers at high speed. That discussion lead onto hearing about this site - kudos to the person who came up with the name
  25. They played this in the very recent documentary on Janet Baker. Very moving
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