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  2. Andy Bown I think they thought it was just going to be another wet nights training. I was worried about the other groups when ours were off I actually shouted at them to get off but nobody seemed very worried. they did move when it struck the ground from blizortung I reckon one cg was only a mile and half away it did come quick
  3. No sooner had I finished typing that last post, the rain arrived, becoming quite heavy for quite a while. Hoping we will see a few decent dry breaks over next 4 days. Umbrella at hand!
  4. At least some folk in the south west have had fun today, although not all I'm sure!
  5. Pennine Ten Foot Drifts The suggested overall tendency is for us to develop more of a seasonal range in terms of rainfall. Over the longer term, the weakening difference in temperature between the Arctic and the equator, and the overall increase in temperature, should work to increase rainfall. However, in summer in particular, we expect the Hadley cell to extend northwards, leading to the Azores high extending over to Iberia more frequently, which would act to reduce rainfall. Hence, the overall impact by 2100 is generally thought to be wetter winters / extended cold seasons, and drier summers. Of course, modelling these things is still somewhat difficult, and rainfall patterns are much less certain than temperature, especially if any tipping points are crossed that significantly reconfigure global circulation patterns.
  6. Slightly above average. You're correct of course going by the 91-20 average, but 9.4C would be 1.5C above the 61-90 average! Stating the obvious I know, but just goes to show how much and how rapidly the climate is changing!
  7. Famous as the much-pilloried "barbecue summer". Not as bad as all that, but what made it seem worse than it was, was the central month of July being very cool and wet. June was predominantly warm and sunny as already noted, particularly the last week but also earlier in the month at times. I remember the post-solstice period being meteorologically interesting in the sense that it started sunny but not that hot with low humidity (NE-lies), then one night (the day Michael Jackson died which would make it Thurs 25th) a thundery trough unusually advanced NW-wards into this not-so-hot air producing some late-evening storms after dark. Behind this thundery trough, it turned very hot and humid with higher cloud levels but also higher temps - a rare case of a thundery trough turning it warmer and more humid! July started hot and humid but quickly turned cool and cloudy over the first weekend. The week of 6th-10th was then cloudy and cool but not that wet. I left the country on the 10th and returned on the 27th but it was apparently very wet indeed during this period, 2007-like in its wetness but thankfully not as prolonged. I was in the Alps and even there, Sat 18th was very, very wet and incredibly cool with settling snow down to 2000m and temps of 10C in Garmisch at around sunset. (Strangely 1987 had the same calendar and on Sat 18th July in 1987 I was also in Germany - and it was also very unsettled both in the UK and Germany and 18 July 1987 at my location in Germany was very cool and very wet). I returned on the 27th and the final week was cool and very zonal westerlies with a couple of active frontal systems but reasonably sunny weather in between. August was then largely dry apart from the first few days. The best of the weather was from around (EDIT, have checked @B87's stats which has jogged a few memories) the 7th-22nd, when it was often sunny with moderate temps in the low 20s interspersed with cool and cloudy days; after that it turned cloudier and cooler (but still fairly dry) as westerlies set in, IIRC, but the Bank Holiday Monday on the 31st was warm and sunny. I distinctly remember August being cooler than the synoptics might suggest due to cool SSTs. I do remember a constant nagging westerly breeze and maxima around 19C or so being the typical weather of late month and some days earlier in the month, but, as I said, it was largely dry. September 2009 was, alongside 2014, one of only two really settled Septembers in the past 15 years. September does seem to be trending more unsettled of late. What made 2009 seem relatively poor at the time was the July, I think, plus the frequent cool weather later in August. But it was probably the best summer of the 07-12 period, 2010 also not being too bad. But I'd say 2009 was better than 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2023 and these days, in the context of 15 years of frequent poor summers, I'd re-rate it as average alongside 2010. The extended summer and far-extended summer (Mar-Oct) 2009 could be considered good though. It was a year of predominantly fine weather, with two exceptions, November and, unfortunately, July. It's interesting to note that throughout the period Oct 2008-Mar 2012, the weather was actually often mercifully free of the Atlantic in overdrive - unfortunately the really bad weather had a tendency to occur during summer!
  8. Whilst without doubt, 'feel' is different to actual temperatures and always has been, I'm certain some people feel more cold now than they would have done 20 odd years ago, due to their tolerances changing as a result of climate change. I suppose if you think about it, it's to be expected as Australians for example find their winters to be cold, whereas we would find them warm. Remember back in the days when BBC forecasters would predict wet and windy weather during winter and then finish by saying, 'at least it will be mild!'? Weather forums were around in the early noughties and I while I certainly remember folk moaning about wet weather, they would not complain about it being cold.
  9. In Absence of True Seasons absolutely agree mate Summer8906 I think the high solar, Atlantic SSTs, the ssw and plain bad luck are driving the continuation. One sure thing about luck is it has to change but the first two aren’t anytime soon. You wouldn’t have thought a quick / rapid transition to a Nina will help either. Maybe the return to a period of relative SPV strength might shake things up. I hate west based -nao more than any other pattern, apart from the dec 2015 pattern. We haven’t had a scandi high that has affected us positively since June. We’ve had about 15 pointless Greenland wedges in that time and all we get are a U.K. low or back door southwesterlies. Regardless, having 10 wetter than average months in a row really would be something. Imagine if it was the other way round? I still think that when it flips it flips these days. I just still can’t see any sign of it happening.
  10. Groundhog Week. Starts off grey & damp & miserable, gradually dries up a wee bit with some spells of (warm!) sunshine, but that cold wind just doesn't go away. Got to get started in the garden soon though..
  11. Weather-history Interesting that "make the most of it" caveat, as I remember April 1987's fine weather persisted until almost the end of the month and was renewed in early May, it only turning more changeable about a week into May. In chronological order, the ones that stand out as really good include 1980, 1984, 1987, 1989, 1997, and especially 2011 which was quite unreal for April: temps exceeding 25C and large Cbs producing isolated thunderstorms. And finally, 2022. Good-ish ones include 1988, 1991, 1995, 1996, 2007, 2009, 2015, 2017 and 2021 - they were mostly settled but had one or two cloudy days. Ones I missed (being overseas) which were by all accounts good include 2002, 2003 and 2019. Worst years I remember include 1983 (especially - "the year without a spring" alongside 1998, 2018 and by all accounts 2024), 1986 (unseasonably windy with frequent showers), 1990 (surprisingly - a generally fine April was broken by a cold and wet Easter), 1992 (unseasonably Tm dominated, very dull and damp), 1994 (bit like 1986), 2000 (dull and wet), 2012 (mostly dull and wet though the Saturday was ok), 2016 (unseasonably stormy), 2018 (horrendously dull and wet). And then of course 2024 is sure to be added to this list. The very worst were probably 1983 and 2018. "Interesting" (rather than notably warm and sunny) years include 1998 for the snow (the worst weather coming before Easter in terms of flooding) and 2013 for the unreal cold (it was also very dry).
  12. MIA - this is the bit that I'm very interested in (and somewhat concerned by). My basic understanding is that two particular elements are helping drive our, (as in the UK), recent (i.e. the last 18-24 months) dominant weather (procession of low pressures, very limited settled dry weather): 1. The reduction in the temperature difference between mid-latitudes and the Arctic weakening the northern polar jet and causing it (combined with other factors you've mentioned) to persist on a more southerly track. 2. Generally warmer air, therefore holding more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall associated with the procession of depressions. If this is generally correct does that not mean that this type of pattern is going to persist for potentially many years (at least in human terms i.e potentially 5-10 years) until the next 'level' of climate change kicks in and we move to the next phase? (however that manifests itself).
  13. MP-R Interesting you recorded no rain on Monday 23rd July. That was a wet day here, albeit surrrounded by two very sunny days.
  14. MP-R Indeed, May was not like a May at all. Full on late autumn/early winter style zonal from the early Bank Holiday Sunday to the 19th, then a short fine period, then an extremely cool and wet late Bank Holiday (one of the worst on record) and dull and wet right to the end with only one fine day on Tuesday 29th.
  15. July 21 is a bit early for the changeover date, I'd set it at July 29. Sat July 21 was cyclonic with prolonged and frequent showers and there was further heavy frontal rainfall on the 23rd, 25th and 26th. That week only the 22nd and 24th were sunny, though both were very sunny. Sun Jul 29 was the date the worst of the summer passed. The wind turned northerly and clear, bright air moved in. The 29th and 30th were rather cool but fairly sunny while the 31st was very sunny with about average temps. August was then a month of four parts. The 1st-11th predominantly warm and sunny, the 12th-17th or so was cool and rather wet Atlantic dominated, the 18th-23rd featured dull and very cool northeasterlies and the final week warm and bright. July 29-end of August I would rate as average although July 21-28 was a continuation of the deluge.
  16. Today
  17. Had Worse indeedlydoodly Iceaxecrampon indeedlydoodly Had Worse indeed I am
  18. TheOgre Even that might be preferable to the April 2012 being followed by a repeat of summer 2012!
  19. Evening all Not really a lot to be said about tonight's output as there's a strong common theme. The current LP shifts west and then elongates south west back into the Atlantic and sends energy south and west to build a new long elongated trough - it's a pattern we've seen before and basically it's what happens when you get heights to the north trying to push south and heights to the south trying to push north. A succession of LP move close to the British Isles through next week maintaining the unsettled and wet theme with a risk of snow to higher areas midweek as a little feature crosses southern Britain. 12Z ECM offers finally a sign of the jet pushing back north but it's a long way from a done deal and 12Z GFS OP maintains a largely unsettled evolution well into FI. Very early hints around mid month of something more settled but far too far off to be taken seriously at this time. The GFS OP rainfall numbers suggest another 3-4 inches of rain widely across the south and west of England, Wales and the Pennines (possibly as snow) in the next 10 days so flooding concerns remain.
  20. Jamie M Ah I see , probably some low-topped supercells around today.
  21. A dry and mainly cloudy morning with one or two brief sunny intervals. Cloudy with brief moderate showers this afternoon, and one heavy shower shortly after 1800. At 1800 Temp; 6.1c Max today; 7.5c Min last night; 2.8c Grass min; 0.1c Rainfall from 0900-1800; 2.0 mm Sunshine today; 0.5 hrs Mean wind speed; 29 mph S Highest gust today; 49 mph S at 1758 8 oktas Ns Vis; 4 miles Moderate-heavy shower of rain
  22. Sprites Sadly not this was just one of the Weather Watcher images I found searching through - bloody wish I was though
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