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  1. Past hour
  2. The ecm at 10mb and 50 (courtesy Weatherbell)
  3. Nice to see the ECM showing the pattern change from Euro ridge/high to euro trough within the 10 day window. Early days, as looking at the GEFS yesterday they were clueless, and the 06z add little direction to how the next pattern develops. The GEFS still working out the pace of the Euro high easing east and where the other wave forces occur in our Atlantic sector. JFF D12 GEFS: Really as others have said, a welcome possible change in pattern, but as always models can over react in such cases, so a watching brief to await clarity.
  4. Models firming up on the whole PV shifting East of the Greenwich Meridian with associated upper height rises over Greenland. The prospects of a North to North Easterly airstream are increasing for the start if Winter proper.
  5. Listed below, is the programme of Competition Races I've chosen for the coming Weekend, I will Post up the Racing Post links to the Final Declarations for Saturday's Competition Races, around Friday Lunchtime. LATE AUTUMN-EARLY WINTER RACING COMPETITION SAT.23rd NOV. HAYDOCK 1.50 2.25 - LEG 1 (Ascot, Haydock, Navan Trixie). 3.00 3.40 ASCOT 2.05 2.40 3.20 - LEG 2 (Ascot, Haydock, Navan Trixie). SUN 24th NOV. NAVAN 1.00 2.30 - LEG 3 (Ascot, Haydock, Navan Trixie). 3.00 UTTOXETER 1.10 2.40 3.10 3.40 Regards, Tom.
  6. The adjustment of the ext EPS is much along the lines of the GEFS in some respects The EPS still retains the vortex over northern Russia with no intrusion of a ridge into the western Arctic but does adjust the alignment of the Canada/Greenland trough/ridge combination which pushes the strong westerly upper flow a tad further south but also initiates another flow across Greenland (similar to the GEFS) which allows slightly colder air into the surface analysis which remains unsettled with temps around average but a likely N/S variation
  7. Lets hope we don´t end up here with west based NAO and waste the cold potential which will plunge between Iceland and Ireland.
  8. Partly cloudy to boot, not feeling as cold as yesterday morn. 4.4°C min overnight, currently 6.0°C
  9. Well, something is afoot, and I'm hoping it's a foot of snow in a couple of weeks time!
  10. Hubby has reported a very icy start here in Falkirk as he slithered down the hill to the train station.
  11. T144 ukmo and ecm. Ecm at t240 is nice viewing but if it were to look like ukmo at t144 would there not be to much energy coming from the north west or west that we wouldn’t get to t240? S4, you tease, I remember the outcome of that chart very well
  12. Blimey .... ec and icon (and get to an extent) raising the ante .... might be best to take a watching brief for a few runs ......
  13. 00Zs raising an eyebrow or two this morning. The ECM does indeed look primed. Not your standard Northern Hemisphere, that’s for sure. Sort of reminds me of this beauty... Edit: I should’ve added.. which lead of course to this 2 days later
  14. 'potent' northerly keeps showing up on some models for end of November but will probably be toned down to a 'glancing blow' by the time we reach that point, if anything at all. Next week a little milder and damper for a time but hopefully not the rainfall amounts we've had through the early part of November.
  15. Now now need to see be seeing far more runs than just this, however it’s true that yes, if this chart were to come off then we’d likely be heading into quite a prolonged cold spell - all looking very ominous to our north. It’s also true that there’s been significant model convergence this morning up to around d7 (bar GFS), seeing pressure being put in all the right places now
  16. Today
  17. All looking good this morning synoptically, with target period end of the month ready for December, however that’s still 8-10 days away. GFS shows my little issue I placed on seasonal outlook (Northerlies not getting far enough south) with a marked boundary of cold and mild air over the U.K. ECM, GEM and UKMO all nice. Very interesting week ahead to see if this consolidated or wobbles away. BFTP
  18. A partly cloudy start to the day and breezy in from the SE, quite noticeable. Anyway to go with that it's a warm 7.7°C as the rain in the southwest seems to have stalled there, at least for now, but will tomorrow bring a deluge or not...?
  19. Can anyone tell me please if the EC has started to pick up the warming at 240hrs like the gfs please?
  20. Too far out to take seriously, but this morning's ECM finishes in an explosive position, with the PV upstream and not far away
  21. ECM finishes primed and ready could we actual have a proper wintry Dec for a change.
  22. There is not much hard data to compare the two as far as I know. There likely is data in existence, that was used during the development, testing and fine tuning phases for the new FV3. But those are probably mostly internal. At least I have not came across any comparison data. On a general note, I kinda feel an anti-FV3 agenda in this thread. Not sure why, because FV3 is a very capable solver. It is actually appropriate for the strat, as a dynamic core. Has anyone noticed when looking at the strat charts, they look much more realistic? Especially the temperature forecast. You can actually get the feeling of fluidity, even at 1° resolution. You can actually see the eddies in the surf zone, and energy and waves in the forecast. That is not due to resolution, but due to the capability of the FV3. Below is a comparison of GEFS and FV3, both on a 0.5°grid. Now you tell me, where can you see the actual fluid dynamics? You really get the feeling that you are looking at water motion, when you look at the GFS with the FV3 core. And that is pretty much what this is. It is like motion of water, combined with waves and circulation. This does not automatically mean a better forecast, but as far as I am looking by eye, it is not bad at all! It has the same bias as the old one, trending towards a weaker vortex into FI. But all those biases go out the window and are not important when SSW dynamics start.<-Those are mainly influenced by the trop activity, so any error in the trop forecast will reflect in the strat forecast too. Besides, when a stratospheric warming trend starts in the FI, it can swing the warming air mass 1000-3000km left or right with each run, making big differences from run to run. But the forecast is still a success, because it has seen the developing warming for example, which materializes. So to me, the FV3 is quite a capable strat solver. Forget the old GFS, it is gone anyways. So far it seems that FV3 is doing a good job. More time will be needed to make proper actual comparisons.
  23. The light switch is on moment ICON ECM UKMO all starting to take shape now.
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