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  2. Thursday 19 Dec - Saturday 28 Dec Cloudy with outbreaks of rain on Thursday, heaviest in the south and west, but moving north and eastwards. Also a risk of snow on the northern hills. In the west, windy with coastal gales. Likely frost overnight in the north, but elsewhere, temperatures generally around normal. Thereafter, it will turn milder and unsettled again as further bands of rain and strong winds edge in from the west. Changeable and sometimes windy conditions will probably last for the rest of the period. Most of the rain will probably be in the west with drier spells more likely in the east and southeast. Snow may occur at times in the north, mainly on high ground. There remains a chance of brief drier, colder interludes, with an increased risk of frost and fog. Saturday 28 Dec - Saturday 11 Jan Confidence is low throughout this period. Changeable and sometimes windy conditions seem more likely through late December, with the wetter weather in the west and longer drier spells in the east. By the time we go into January, longer spells of more widely dry, quiet and bright weather are possible, especially for southern and central areas, with the northwest more likely to remain unsettled. Temperatures should be near to or somewhat above average overall, but with the usual day to day variations. However in quieter spells, it is likely to be colder generally, with an increased risk of frost and fog. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
  3. Hi. Yes, there is space for optimists, pessimists, realists and those that post D10+ mean charts! The D10 means for the big-three:
  4. Cold or Mild? A look at what the weather has in store in the run up to Christmas View the full blog here
  5. amazing how certain folk are quick to shoot down comments,ah well.id agree the overhaul pattern you suggest with obv caveats.it would seem there is an agenda when your posts or comments don't fit the sceptical and chased cold outlook but hey ho.granted it is the chase for cold thread but sometimes a bit of realism isn't bad.wedges seems to be the new hip word and hopefully they transpire into something wintry but a bit of respect for other posters comments isn't beyond even the so called heroes of the net weather community.i think after tonights hill snow next week will turn milder and unsettled.Rain is the biggest issue imo and it looks pretty grim for those of us with saturated ground.An mlb would be great for a few weeks but sods law says that's not going to happen.uto
  6. Windy for most atm but for the south they drop off and become light inland for a time but for the far west of Scotland winds are very strong and will remain that way for the next couple of hours courtesy of a small area of low pressure rotating close by with gusts perhaps as high as 60mph or so for the far west of Scotland until evening time accompanied by already a more persistent spell of rain/sleet and perhaps snow in places for parts of northern Ireland and central perhaps southern Scotland too this perhaps easing off for a time later this evening before moving back in later overnight into tomorrow morning with accumulations of snow in some parts here especially over high ground. Wind gusts.. During this evening and tonight rain spreads northeast across much of England and Wales falling as snow for parts of Northern England and perhaps North Wales especially over high ground the rain turns heavy for particularly southern and Eastern areas later. Rainfall.. And although winds ease down for the north overnight winds strengthen again for Wales and central southern parts of England becoming strong later in the night with gusts of 35-45mph perhaps over 50mph for exposed parts, especially along the coast and the far southwest.
  7. Looks tricky tomorrow morning over the Snake Pass if the Met Office are on the money.
  8. Today
  9. Had another mix of rain and sleet shower but snow levels definety lowering as I can see on the mountains right behind me
  10. Had some showers here this morning containing some snow when they got heavier,so quite hopeful for tonight.
  11. And just to illustrate the truth of current huge model volatility the long range EC clusters are genuinely all over the place. The 6 groupings here represents virtually the entire spectrum of possible options. Right now FI NWP output is even more useless than normal...
  12. Certainly a cold wind chill out there in the strong wind feels close to or below freezing for most except the far south and southwest.
  13. Trying to do a forecast and add everything up often end up like this
  14. Worth chipping in here and saying anecdotally that the GFS ensemble suite may be doing rather well against EPS according to US observers. For once it would appear that the EC is having a problem picking the Pacific pattern, and verification stats for Dec might be worth a look at month’s end. While we know GFS has a westerly bias in the Atlantic if it is doing a better job of sorting out the MJO conundrum in the face of static conditions in the IO then it has a head start. Might be a time not to be so quick to bin GFS and hence the charts above have cogency. Some kind of change is coming. The Pacific signal is tougher than usual to read right now, and GLAAM is heading downwards at the moment which is not good (though was expected) but the passage of convection towards the maritimes will undoubtedly inject some kind of extra westerly momentum to shake up the relatively flat pattern of the last 10-14 days or so. NWP is making a right mess of working out exactly where any heights might land, but with a long range eye to things I’m hoping it will be as close to Scandy as possible in order to encourage the strongest available wave 2 forcing on the vortex. A cut off high with an easterly feed would be the pot of gold at the end of a rather long shot rainbow given the current wider context, and a more static and settled end product with frost overnight but not a great deal in the way of lowland snow potential feels the more likely best end product for the Xmas period. Worst case scenario would be insufficient forcing to get Euro heights northwards, and the dreaded spectre of a long draw southerly as heights get only half way there. Yuck...but not the form horse in my view. No harm eyeballing the pot of gold, and hoping MJO progression might emerge robustly, giving a spiking westerly momentum profile that could support a genuine high lat block. We are certainly in the business end of winter now with sufficient cold air across the NH to give proper wintry conditions given the right synoptics.
  15. Global temperatures are monitored and they're rising on average, some would say accelerating. Like I mentioned, we can literally measure the energy imbalance caused by the increase in GhGs, which tells us beyond doubt that the atmosphere is heating up and will continue to do so. We can also measure the build up of heat in the oceans too and the thermal expansion that is causing. Even the height of the tropopause is increasing due to heating at the surface. The evidence is pretty overwhelming that a change in circulation is not the cause. I can provide some citations for all the above too, if needed. It just adds a lot of time getting them!
  16. One thing I have noticed with the wrf 2km is that sometimes the timing can be a bit off, not sure if it was more to do with the thunderstorms in the summer sometimes it would have it say 4pm for example but in reality it was 2pm so when I use it I try and compare the timings to the other short range models and again try and average them all out to find an accurate start / end time
  17. I added that in for comparison, similar to the Euro4 too. I'll look at them later and see what's what as it would be good to know what is accurate and what isn't
  18. It is the wrf 2km which is the best of the wrf models for short range as I have added in my last post
  19. It would be interesting to compare them all hour by hour, I've never checked properly just always get the feels for the Euro4 being the least inaccurate. When you do a forecast every morning you are always aware when you get it completely wrong
  20. TBH I rarely use the euro4 and as I mentioned my go to is the wrf and I usually try and average out what the majority of the short range models are showing and try to come to a conclusion although a setup like today's is not the easiest comparison of those 2 models for 1pm and I would say both done a good job especially up here in Scotland with the wrf possibly closer to the mark with exact positioning of precip.
  21. Sunny with blue skies so far here but again with a cold wind making it feel quite a bit colder than it is. 9.2°C
  22. Most models are fairly poor at forecasting precip accurately but the Euro4 is usually the least worst. I mostly use the Euro4 for my weather page, the others are not the best and the GFS is useless for short range precip forecasts.
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