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  2. It's a reasonable start here in the far south-east, and to prove me wrong about the tatties it would appear to be the start of harvesting the rest of the crop. Didn't get any pics of the harvest as Fergus the Spaniel went mental at them.
  3. With a generally dismal outlook for cold weather fans, let's hope P9 of the GEFS trumps the pack!
  4. Had a knock on the door at 7am this morning with replacements for bubs things. wasn't expected till Monday. Very happy.

  5. Indeed they are away from the Highlands. And it's going to get rarer with the world warming up. As I mentioned before for for fans of cold and snowy weather,your be better of booking a holiday somewhere in Canada to guarantee yourself a couple of weeks of proper winter weather with deep snow and go and enjoy it with your kids. What's the point of chasing it anymore,for weeks here in the UK ,and when it does arrive,it very rarely lasts more than a few days, accept for the occasional year British winter suck for deep powdery snow,should stop the chase ,but I still do every winter lol
  6. Morning all. May I offer this wider picture 144t from UKMO best of this mornings runs for slowing things down and allowing better prospects of colder conditions to last a bit longer than a day or so. Quite a sharp trough from the Norwegian Sea pushing south, this would allow Arctic direct flow into Scotland by Friday morning. Will it hold ? This charts starting to show a change in pattern . Note the rise in pressure further east and build of pressure in the Western Atlantic, this will help to slow the zonal train down . For cold to get locked in over the British Isles the lows coming from the N Atlantic need to start to slide SE . Would be interesting to view the extended UKMO charts at 168t to see if this process will take place but of course we have no access to view the pressure profile further east. Just food for thought in the hunt for cold fans. C
  7. The second half? The first half hasn't started yet! Let's get to the 22nd Dec first before writing off half the Winter. First couple of days coming into view - Miles into FI I know but hardly disastrous charts to see in Winter, they will be different next run but just showing writing off the first half of Winter at this point would be foolish.
  8. My river is the Gala Water, closely followed by the Tweed. I like Peebles too, but also like the lonely bits of the young Gala Water.
  9. Today
  10. Bath caved in during the second half against Clermont and their poor start to the season continues
  11. Rain may turn to snow on its back edge during Tuesday evening for Scotland and perhaps parts of northwest England and wales shown mostly on hills. Don't take the detail too literally at this stage from the chart below but the potential is shown. GFS..
  12. Interesting to see the orientation of UKMO at T120 is subtly different from GFS, delivering potential for a much more potent north-westerly on Thursday/Friday. Contrast this with UKMO which is quite juicy:
  13. Below, is a quote from a Post I made on Wednesday Evening: T/Storm 2. 6th August 1981. "Myself and my first Wife, were House-sitting at the time, for friends of ours. The Husband was a Groundsman at Alleyn's School, in Dulwich. I worked around a brisk 20 minute walk, from our friend's House. I can remember I had a very brisk walk to work that Morning at around 9 AM, as I was being "chased" by an "evil" coppery coloured Sky, which was emitting ever louder, peals of thunder. Managed to reach work, before the Tropical style rain began. I think there was a 2nd t/storm around 10 AM but this was short-lived. The "Piece de Resistance", was still to come and gave this violent, thundery spell, it's "Daytime-Darkness" tag!! If memory serves, just before Lunchtime the sky grew darker and darker. In a short time, the sky was as black, as Midnight. But for quite a while, nothing happened and an eerie silence, ensued. Then "All Hell broke loose". Frequent overhead Lightning and Thunder, with Rain of an intensity, I've rarely seen. The thundery Weather finally moved away." As a postscript to that account, I'd like to add an image, taken during that Event. It appears in the Surrey County Weather Book and is reproduced with the kind permission of Ian Currie, who co-wrote the Book with Mark Davison. The image is entitled, "When Day became Night": It depicts the scene at Lower Kingswood, on the A217, about 6 Miles South of Epsom, in Surrey. This Photo was taken at around Midday and was typical of the intense darkness experienced, in and around the London area, at that time. I was working in East Dulwich, S,E,London. We experienced the same intense darkness, after a few minutes of eerie calm, all hell broke loose. This was the 3rd, and most intense cell, during that very violent 3 hours, between 9.30 and 12.30 on the Morning of, 6th August 1981. Regards, Tom.
  14. The ecm also unsettled for the latter half of the run and the mobile Atlantic could well include some wintry incursions
  15. Could go either way looking at the Jet, digging south to our West, heights rising to our SSE!!
  16. EC has potential for those up North and with decent altitude... I would take a stab at anywhere over 300m in the north west will do quite well , And ends a little differently to previous op runs.. Jet digging south towards the Canaries..
  17. Thankfully the ECM has other ideas 240 still to rôle out but hopefully more WAA in towards Greeny not sure where this is going!! Anywhere but a euro high will do , it does look like heights are pushing up from N Africa though
  18. The hideous Euro trash high making an unwanted appearance on the GFS this morning. Seen that wretched high ruin countless winters since the late 80s
  19. The key factor with the ext GEFS this morning is the possibility of the retrogression of the European trough and some signs that the subtropical high is stirring. This shouldn't be a complete surprise as the latest EC weeklies was indicating something similar
  20. A cloudy mild dry start Temp 8.0C, low 7.9C, Barometer 1006mb rising, Wind F2 WNW, Rainfall Nil
  21. A pretty severe 6pm run yesterday from the Arpege showed gales widely for many western and southwestern parts that's likely and most models show this but another zone of interest was a zone of 75-85mph heading into Wales and through the Midlands then close to the London region with gusts of 70-80mph that would certainly be very disruptive not to be taken too literally ofcourse. Wind gusts from that yesterday evening's chart.. Detailed numbers in mph below.. Note there is a small disturbance "kink" in the isobars this is what those very high gusts for more inland regions are in association with ofcourse the behaviour of these little lows within the flow are important as to how things pan out during tomorrow night. Worth bearing in mind Arpege does tend to over do wind gusts but nevertheless knock 10mph off those values and some disruptive weather would still be likely for many. Anyway in its midnight update a lessening of peak gusts especially for those central regions but still 55-65mph progged. Not all models agree however and a less severe scenario is possible but I feel the midnight update from Arpege won't be far off at all although I expect gusts will be higher than Arpege shows for the Irish sea and Ireland. Also potentially very strong winds northerly winds for the far east of England come Monday morning too. Looking at Tuesday an incoming frontal system likely brings very strong winds 40-60mph quite widely then a spell of heavy rain with a pronounced and intense squall line indicated by the sudden bend and opening in the isobars to the left of the tightest squeeze. With much colder air tucking behind and wintry showers for the north and west behind this. GFS.. Rainfall..
  22. The upstream amplification and the pumping up of the jet has been discussed in previous posts so suffice it to say a very mobile Atlantic for the rest of the week and continuing very unsettled, according to the gfs
  23. Outlook - unsettled and very windy at times The North Atlantic 300mb wind field and surface analysis for midnight Essentially today is the calm before the storm with broken cloud and the odd sunny interval, courtesy of a very transient ridge. But fronts associated with the developing area of low pressure to the north west will quickly bring rain into western Scotland by mid morning, accompanied by strengthening winds, which will spread east through the rest of the day The warm front clears to the east this evening but the time spent in the windy warm sector is brief as the cold front and a band of heavy rain sweep east through the night with heavy showers following on behind in the very strong winds which could reach gale force in coastal regions The rain quickly clears Sunday morning leaving a day of squally heavy showers, mainly concentrated in western regions, which could well have hail and thunder in the mix. But the complex trough is still developing to the west of Ireland Over Sunday night and though Monday the upper trough re-orientates and moves east and in the process very strong winds will initially effect western and south west regions and then eastern coastal regions as the surface wind veers northerly There is little respite from the windy and wet weather as by Tuesday further rapid cyclogenisis has taken place out in the Atlantic near the left exit of the jet and the associated fronts sweep across the country accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds The fronts clear away by Wednesday leaving the UK in the circulation of the very deep low of 943mb east of Iceland. Thus a day of squally showers, with thunder and hail in the mix, which may well coalesce in the south courtesy of the trough swinging around within the circulation
  24. Signs of that Scandy HP building on the Op in deep FI. The control goes on to build heights into Central Euro
  25. The very strong winds definitely not restricted to the west and southwest attention should also be on a swathe of very strong perhaps damaging gusts of winds possibly moving northwest to southeast in association with a small area of low pressure in the flow tightening the isobars even more perhaps moving southeast through Wales central England into southern parts during the early hours of Monday morning possibly 50-60mph. Then a swathe of very strong winds perhaps over 70mph shown for the north sea fringing into the far east according to the Gfs by Monday morning. Gfs below.
  26. I said this December would be a disaster for cold lovers didn't I, and I see no reason to think Jan or Feb will be much better. British "winters" are a waste of time.
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