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  3. There isn't many members left north of the 0c isotherm is there. Two days ago. 850 temps latest from gefs ens today two days ago the trend over the last couple of days (as it stands) has trended to cooler/colder conditions from late next week as you can see above,more and more members are trending colder with quiet a few showing the -5 isotherm or below.
  4. 8.4°C was the low tonight at exactly 11pm, temperature soon started to increase. 4°C increase in just over an hour! Currently 12.3°C with partly cloudy skies.
  5. And the control is a screamer,that shortwave at 240hrs is more pronounced N of Iceland than the gfs 18z hence the better northerly outbreak which then leads to this.
  6. Nope - As long as there's no incessant ramping (which is fine in the other thread) then it's all good!
  7. Quiet true pantz but is there anything wrong with posting charts what is being shown in the NWP?(numerical weather patterns) IE:- the gfs the ecm doesn't show such scenario and we talk about this all the time to fathom out what is going on because when was the last time these both models ride in tandem...never ok i get it that come nearer the time both of the models are inaccurate but we look for trends is the gfs right or the ecm? the gfs is showing cold that we want...yes,but i did state that the ecm needs to come on board,if not,we take it on the chin as for the trop/strat,it's not my forte but i do have some understanding in that category but not much i do not come across as a one sided person to cold but a balanced one,if the charts show cold,i will post them
  8. In my slim experience, the GFS has always had a tendency to throw up those scenarios at the back-end of a run when the polar vortex is forecast to strengthen and trop/strat coupling begins to take place.
  9. Give it time feb,it's still around day ten> like i said earlier,the op and control have been screaming these charts out for days,2010 was a good signal that the gfs picked up,will this one be the same?
  10. Dry and chilly with variable cloud Temp 9.7c
  11. Pub run T324: Quite something for October!
  12. Nearly again - just can't get those -6 and -8 lines down.
  13. A bizarre but very interesting evolution at day ten haven't seen outputs like this in a while.. Colder and also rain seemingly coming from all sorts of directions well I say rain but mabye the magic S word would be used in this such scenario for some areas.
  14. .Another surge of colder air coming down from this trough circled red. this could be a stonker of a run.
  15. So to the pub run, first at T156, ridge of high pressure will be a relief to those who have had incessant rain recently. From then on, well this looks like a flying pig: Well it does to me anyway, coming at you view... you can clearly see its snout, that colder rush becoming more likely?
  16. Still early in the run yet but if we can get some frigid air pulled down the line of that wave then wont it be all GFS's today that have been cold? something afoot, BBC were still going with ECM op.
  17. The 18z a little slower on the evolution than the 12z,so finer days for longer,i would take that at 192. we still have the Atlantic ridge so variations of the theme around that time frame.
  18. Evening everyone,i see the gfs is still at it with forecasting a northerly outbreak later next week so it is consistent,just need the ecm to come on board,if you look at the mean at day ten from both the gfs and ecm they both look broadly similar with the height's pushing up into Greenland so i think the ecm op may come on board tomorrow the latest from cpc days 8-14 show this with height's pushing up into Greenland with trough down into Scandinavia now for the flip of the coin,the NAO/AO was forecast to go +ve positive yesterday,now look at them,if this continues then the Atlantic door may be come ad-jarred or even shut i know i am ramping a little bit but who wouldn't now for the 18z,buckle up.
  19. I`ve seen some classics,I havn`t seen this for such a long time,and I was very impressed,and a few other cult classics.
  20. Temperature got down to 9.9°C around an hour ago but has been climbing ever since... up to 10.6°C now
  21. David de Gea: Injured keeper a doubt for Man Utd v Liverpool - BBC Sport WWW.BBC.CO.UK Goalkeeper David de Gea is a doubt for Manchester United's Premier League game against Liverpool on Sunday after coming off injured on Spain duty.
  22. Yes I managed a rough cut of grass the other week as it was so long but doing any gardening is out of the question. Dog walks in the fields is just a quagmire of mud and drowned grass.
  23. 9.4°C here now, can't see this downtrend continuing much longer with the weather front moving ever closer.
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