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  2. GFS 18z @ t84 ( decent uppers that could deliver) GFS 18z @ t84 As damianslaw correctly points out , there is plenty to be interested about in terms of snow potential Mon 27th - Wed 29th ( especially for Ireland , Scotland , Wales and Northern England with a bit of altitude.
  3. Some light drizzle earlier this evening and as reported, dull and overcast, currently 5.7°C..
  4. No panic stations from me yet. I think the government is right about the low risk given we haven't *officially* had any confirmed cases here. Obviously if we start to get a lot of them then it's right to up the risk level. The only concerning thing if that happens is how the heck can the NHS cope with people needing a bed? It's already stretched now as it is.
  5. Yep, Wuhan is the source, so it is spreading because of global travel. The same happened with SARs and it turned out to be next to nowt. This will be easily contained. Granted, in today's "believe anything you see or read on the internet" peeps will think it is the next human disaster - it wont be.
  6. As said concentrate on the shorter term, promising for some wintry fayre around here at least..
  7. Interesting reading, when did the tripole develop then in 2009, through the summer and autumn? normally its SST values in May that indicate likely negative NAO or not.. I think the El Nino modoki was a strong factor for the cold winter of 09/10, it did start mild after a very mild November as well.. 2010 was cold throughout with lots of northern blocking which will have helped with warm uppers over N Atlantic. A blocked spring helps I think with mid atlantic heights, 1995 brought this, and we saw a tripole in winter of 95/96.. did 2005 do the same?, tripole again in winter 2005/2006.
  8. You would be correct in your theory that those of us in the south aren't interested since historically speaking short-lived northerlies or North westerlies seldom produce anything for us snow starved dwellers as by the time they get going, the shows all over before its even begun. So, effectively, nothing changes from what falls from the skies and we are merely waiting for the event to finish so that we can start the hunt for snow, cold, proper winter, whatever you want to call it again. The next GFS run will be awaited eagerly by some.
  9. I'm just glad it's Friday night, Monday is a long way off and we may yet get blizzarded. Unlikely though, far less likely than the chances of me drinking more than I really should tonight. ('No lemon', says Ms HC.)
  10. You're assuming I've put Scraggy the measuring stick away since the BFTE?
  11. Wow, take a look at the ECM 240, the 1025mb isobar around the Mediterranean High stretches from the Channel Coast at Normandy to the deep Sahara, I reckon that's over 2000miles! That is one Monster Bartlett that isn't going anywhere. You can also bet that's one ECM 10 day chart that is sure to verify. Andy
  12. Yes - we are in deep deep trouble with this one i fear, but as usual nothing will be done and people will still be allowed to travel freely to and from the UK willy nilly until some smart ass realises the damage but by then it will be too late - millions will have been killed.
  13. There appears to be an increasing tendency in readers posts, to be ignoring what is happening in the here and now, and instead looking at what might happen in 10 days time, which always perplexes me.. sign of the time I think.. no-one seems to be 'in the present'... With this in mind, we do have a change on the cards from Sunday, for the north some what I would call proper cold air for 2-3 days about to move in, sub 528 dam air, thicknesses right side of marginal for snow I think down to quite low levels under any trough features which are being programmed - good to look at the FAX charts in these situations. Indeed first time this season I've bothered to look at them... Alas longer term its a shortlived polar maritime airstream before the omi-present azores high ridges back into the UK. Feels good to be able to mention the snow word.. Those away from the north and north west, I sense will not be interested in the upcoming spell.. but its good to see a change in airstreams from the perpetual tropical maritime, or anticyclonic gloom.. We saw similiar synoptics mid December, and they produced low level snow here.. 2 inches.
  14. KW.. Thanks.. It looks as if some of the models are beginning to sniff out an SSW next week. The above is probably what will happen. There has continued to be large differences in the Ozone concentration (and still are) this year, with Siberia and Canada having an excess and the polar central regions having reduced amounts. ( I cannot call it a polar hole - so far), but we will see. Yesterday, I noticed the next wave of Ozone over the Baring Sea ready to attack Canada. The forecast SSW is expected to be in the area. Lots about to happen in the Polar regions next week! From a polar low to an SSW!!! MIA
  15. GFS is showing a 'polar low' formation for Sunday, just to the north of Finland. It has the potential to be one of the most powerful in recent recorded history, and has a well defined 'warm core'.. Just North of the area we have the 2 Research projects fastened/stuck to the ice.. Let us hope that it doesn't move their way. The air is very cold in the area, recent data from the Polarstern has temperatures dropping down below -30C this morning. The 'Lance' was last reported to be stuck in the ice just north of Svalbard, and the Polarstern is now just to the north of the Jan Meyer to Svalbard Islands. It could well be a frightening experience for the younger members on board. Is GFS correct? MIA
  16. Yes strong parallels with 2008, mid-late Feb 2008 brought a long anticyclonic spell and large diurnal temp range, with some frosty nights and mild days and abundant sunshine.. The cold arrived in time for easter and early April.. we were also I think in solar minima and crawled out of it following winter very slowly which marked a sea-change to much colder conditions... mmm... strong parallels..
  17. Only a 50% chance... I wouldn't go getting my measuring stick out..
  18. Thank you @snowray for the late entry and @TomSE12 for the forecasts!! It brings a little excitement to the otherwise fruitless search for snow this winter
  19. Today
  20. Feb 1947 had snow falling somewhere in the UK on every day so not a record. Anyway back to the models please. Ta.
  21. LOL. No need for an arrow this year as everybody now knows what it's like living on the coast of death!
  22. It’s clearly not contained to ground zero, when 7 other countries have cases. America has confirmed its 3rd case, and all of infected are in entirely separate geographic locations. One woman from Chicago came back from Wuhan 10 days ago so she has possibly infected many, it is not entirely clear yet but as some have said word of two week incubation period. That would be extremely concerning if true, the number of cases would skyrocket very soon we will know much more in next 1-2 weeks. It needs to be taken seriously.
  23. Yes I think it was over two weeks of snow falling, I was living in Sussex then and although it snowed on many days the temps weren’t great for settling on low ground although the Downs looked great.
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