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  2. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/31/quarter-of-worlds-pig-population-to-die-of-african-swine-fever
  3. 7 days blank, 243 for 2019, 75% Solar flux 69 Thermosphere: 3.72
  4. The salient points of the ext GEFS The vortex Franz Joseph Land with associated trough a tad further east with ridge in the western Arctic. This results in a rather more pronounced Canada/Greenland trough/ridge complex resulting in the westerly upper flow across the Atlantic being a tad further south, But in addition there is now an additional flow across northern Greenland to the trough in the east Continuing unsettled but with perhaps some tricky day-to -day surface vagaries courtesy of the twin flows Temps generally around average
  5. Below, are ANTONYBR7's, CASSIE/SE12's and TOMSE12's Selections for Category 6 - (ASCOT, HAYDOCK, NAVAN TRIXIE). ANTONYBR7 Category 6 - ASCOT, HAYDOCK, NAVAN TRIXIE. LEG 1: ITV RACES STAYER'S HANDICAP HURDLE (Haydock Sat.) - Selection - Lisnagar Oscar. LEG 2: HURST PARK HANDICAP CHASE (Ascot Sat.) - Selection - Caid Du Lin. LEG 3: TROYTOWN HANDICAP CHASE (Navan Sun.) - Selection - Chris's Dream. STAKE - 3 x 25p EACH WAY Doubles, 25p EACH WAY Treble. CASSIE/SE12 Category 6 - ASCOT, HAYDOCK, NAVAN TRIXIE. LEG 1: ITV RACES STAYER'S HANDICAP HURDLE (Haydock Sat.) - Selection - Highland Hunter. LEG 2: HURST PARK HANDICAP CHASE (Ascot Sat.) - Selection - Ballywood. LEG 3: TROYTOWN HANDICAP CHASE (Navan Sun.) - Selection - Tower Bridge. STAKE - 3 x 25p EACH WAY Doubles, 25p EACH WAY Treble. TOMSE12 Category 6 - ASCOT, HAYDOCK, NAVAN TRIXIE. LEG 1: ITV RACES STAYER'S HANDICAP HURDLE (Haydock Sat.) - Selection - (White)Eight And Bob. LEG 2: HURST PARK HANDICAP CHASE (Ascot Sat.) - Selection - Marracudja. LEG 3: TROYTOWN HANDICAP CHASE (Navan Sun.) - Selection - Ravenhill. STAKE - 3 x 25p EACH WAY Doubles, 25p EACH WAY Treble. Regards, Tom.
  6. It’s still there but maybe not quite as strong, and not sure it has much support from the bigger guns in that genre!! Still, get it towards 240 and we may be in with a shout of some sort of pattern change away from what seasonal predictions say and it could tie in with Xmas if we are lucky (coldies) - although I see the CFS has changed for Jan. On a positive note it’s nice to see the Op and ENS have dropped the idea of a big stubborn looking HP over France - we, nor the ski fraternity need that in December !! Day 10 ENS mean still hinting at a chance of a Northerly.
  7. The explanation of this transition is above my pay grade
  8. Yes - don;t like the way the ensembles have downgraded the strat warming though.
  9. Today
  10. By now the NH pattern is emerging as expected with troughs running around the vortex over north Russia; the ridge developing southern Greenland and the unimpeded trough pathway across the Atlantic as the block in the east has gone.Thus continuing unsettled, Some spot charts
  11. D\ry and cold with a frost Temp 1.3C, Barometer 1013mb falling slowly, Wind S, Rainfall Nil
  12. The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight Still some frost and pockets of fog around this morning but generally nothing like yesterday and in most places today will be generally cloudy and dry but not feeling overly warm in the stiffening breeze The exception being coastal regions in the west where a decaying front will bring rain, with some heavy pulses this morning, before becoming light and patchy through the day Generally cloudy and breezy tonight but rain will start to effect the far south west from the next front as the main trough becomes negatively titled It will remain dry in most areas on Thursday but again not overly warm in the fresh south easterly wind and the rain will ingress further north east through the day to reach a line N. Wales > Brighton, To the west further troughs have joined the party and a complex low pressure area covers much of the eastern atlantic Overnight and through Friday the complexity continues with a wave developing in the southern quadrant of the trough to be 979mb near Coruna by midday. And an occlusion associated with another little wave will track north up the country accompanied by a band of showery rain. Warmer than of late By Saturday the Coruna low is over south west France but the associated fronts are effecting the country so a day of showers, longer periods of rain, and sunny intervals By Sunday the low has lost it's identity but the decaying front will still bring the odd shower but generally a much drier day.To the west another trough has tracked east to be west of Ireland and the associated frontal system will bring rain and strong winds over late Sunday and through Monday
  13. Interesting chart , I think the strat will still be toasty in FI
  14. Ooooo! New strat winds chart on Meteociel! Looks a bit like a pretzel, GFS T192: Obviously, some more erudite analysis is appropriate, but not at 5am!
  15. Ironically not quite as warm in the stratosphere this GFS run but a nice Northerly showing up a the surface.
  16. Have to wait for the overnight ens suites before dismissing it completely then.
  17. Sadly not followed the the GFS Op!! However the UKMO At 144 does seem to follow the Icons route to 144!! Over to the ENS and ECM Icon at 144
  18. BOOM! - Iconic start to the day with a powerhouse Northerly.
  19. What about the op, is the current version or previous version better? are there actually any verification stats for the strat available?
  20. Legacy is the GEFS v10 version. As it says on the site, it is the pre-December (v11) version. That means it is the pre-upgrade version. It has 42 vertical levels and model top at 2mb. The v11 version (december 2015-present) has 64 vertical levels and model top at 0.2mb. So the legacy version is underqualfied to be a useful strat forecasting tool. At least in the modern times.
  21. The paper Anthony Masiello alluded too in the tweet https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<2608%3AMTGFTA>2.0.CO%3B2
  22. Beautiful a nice Snowy Nly for Where I'm going then❄❄❄
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