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  3. Could suggest some record breaking river levels in Dec as well.
  4. Looks like 88/89 to me. Suggests maybe some record breaking winter warmth.
  5. Expect that red line to start shooting back up again as the southerlies are set to dominate the pole and move away the PV with it leaving the vast majority of the basin well above average temperature wise, at least for a short while. One positive I suppose, the fram express should be more minimal with the southerlies and perhaps more of the pacific side of the basin may start to ice up a bit more. The lack of sea ice in the Chuckchi is incredible and is just a sign of things to come in the next few decades with very slow refreezing of the ice to become the norm.
  6. Seriously, has GLOSEA updated for this month? The latest month still seems to be October for me.
  7. @Kirkcaldy Weather I was just about to comment on this regards to the Atlantic breaking through while there is a block to our east or NE the systems/troughs or lows will have a bit of a hard time breaking through the meridian aka the UK even the ecm doesn't manage this even though it seemed a bad run we still see blocking to the E/NE,it's all variants of the theme but the overall theme is still the same IE- blocking to our N/NE or east how many times have we seen the FL outputs blow the block away to find out a few days later that the systems are still stalling out to our west,i am not saying this will happen this time but we ponder on this all the time so if you see models blow the block away in FL,DON'T BELIEVE IT.
  8. There's one thing that strikes me on the latest MO updates, and they've put one interesting caveat on it. "Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains low." Either way, interesting pattern building next week. The jet seems to be pivoting under the high over Europe, and surely that's what you want? Be interested to see if the models can get to grips with that Afghan/Euro High.
  9. All a little messy the output even though the general trend in terms of temperatures is pretty consistent of cool/chilly but not overly cold and certainly no mild weather on the horizon. No surprises the Atlantic ridge never ridged into Greenland, was not really modelled and the usual marginal watering down of the Atlantic ridge has occured as yet again, far too much energy is leaving newfoundland so any ridge is struggling to maintain itself. Will it turn somewhat drier for the weekend? No doubt if we get any weak heights, the nights will be cold and more than likely frosty given the fairly cool uppers and low thicknesses. For now though, its an unsettled outlook with a small respite on Wednesday before that potentially slow moving front for parts of England come Thursday onwards.
  10. Regarding the glosea model well it got the Autumn completely wrong regarding temps.Went above average for the ,3 months and 2 of them are going to be below normal,so the complete opposite, lol
  11. Will do a more in depth update as things progress but just a few things I am monitoring. Looks like a key period around 18th / 19th November onward with regards to possible easterly and looks like developments centered around areas of lower pressure and their movements latest GFS op - moves it N /NW cutting off the chance of the easterly developing GFS 00Z and ensembles keeping lower pressure to the S / SW giving us a better chance of getting the easterly flow, yes we would still need the scandi high to align favourably but another thing worth monitoring are any cold pools developing to the east / north east So I would say we are still 50/50 whether we get an easterly (and any accompanying wintry possibilities) and just for reference you dont always need deep cold the November 2010 snowfall event here had 850 temps of -8 and another thing worth remembering is how often we have seen the models during previous cold spells usually have a tendency to try and break down the blocking areas of high pressure at least a few days too quick underestimating the strength.
  12. I agree with you Damien... I think what is giving me the wobbles is the Glosea update tonight, coupled with the EC monthly... Both suggestive of a +NAO setup.. Added to that the last two GFS runs have trended this way, and so too,IMO has the EC det. I am most certainly not writing off Dec, but i am saying alarm bells are beginning to ring that the last third of Nov might go zonal.
  13. Cloudy and dry with a moderate north westerly wind Temp 5.8c
  14. Yesterday
  15. I wouldn't look at the mean +ten days>,at day ten max even day ten is pushing it but here it is look at that curve of cold uppers into Scandi on the 850's,this is what i will be looking at in future.
  16. By late November, significant cold pooling can develop quickly to our NE, but I agree in the earlier part of the winter season scandi blocks have a far harder time fighting off the atlantic than they do come mid-latter part of winter, say from mid January onwards when the atlantic traditionally quietens down a bit. They do sometimes win the battle though, think 1995, 1996, 2009, 2010.. Interesting to note current NAO forecasts are for it to go negative rather than stay positive. Also jetstream profile for the foreseeable remains on a very southerly track. Many short-term immediate developments would be conducive to a colder pattern rather than a milder one setting up as we end November, but as we know things can often switch, and usually do so latter end to November start to December.
  17. It is holding on the GEFS _ just about - weakening yes but you would expect that on a mean at that range. its just not likely to do what most on here want it to do in the shorter term - deliver a frigid beast into the UK!
  18. Yes,i'm not really seeing evidence that it will,for the discussions surrounding the disconnect between SPV and TPV there sure looks to be tons of energy in the Jet and frankly, too much for any block to hold to the NE... Of course it may change in the coming days,but as it stands, i'm thinking we might begin to see some pretty uninspiring charts appearing over the coming days.. Hope i'm wrong mind.
  19. -8's to -12's coming in from Scandi at day ten on the control run who's to say this would be correct nor the ones with downgrades today,no one knows at this range as for the long range models,i wouldn't trust my house on them and i am sure no one else would either just sit back and relax,it's all slow moving up above and the de-built ens shows this in terms of wind direction.. have a good evening folks.
  20. I think we really do need to see that scandi high hold and hopefully combined with a ridge into the pole from the pacific side, as an SSW pre-cursor pattern.
  21. Yes but if there are huge discrepancies intra-seasonally, i can bet my bottom dollar which half is more zonal and which half is blocked...........
  22. Have to say the more positive noises today are a bit of a suprise to me.There looks to be gathering momentum for a +NAO regime taking hold longer term, nothing concrete but i'm seeing a trend to heights building across S Europe by around day 9 onwards...
  23. I take very little notice nowadays of any long range modelling.. best just sticking to the reliable timeframe and glean from that what may happen in the semi-reliable, 2-3 weeks + max. These seasonal models average out everything anyway and can't tell you what the weather will actually do on the ground.
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