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Grand dry day. Swallows back chattering excitedly on electric wires. Theres's plenty of insects already due to the wetness. I fear a plague of midges this year.

SunnyG The whole "10 days out" is a meme by this point. It's been "10 days out" since last October, lol. Zero point in placing stock in anything more than 48-72 hours in advance.

Rush2019 Thought it was just us covered in moss! Never seen so much. Anything that hasn't moved has got thickly coated by this spring.

Im not surprised by the spcs upgrade for thursday although it is very rare for them to upgrade the day 3 risk. A lot of shorter range models have the dryline firing. Any discrete supercell that can sustain itself will be capable of golfball-baseball sized hail, 70+ mph straight line wind gusts and strong-violent tornadoes. I also think the spcs decision to upgrade was partly due to the csu machine learning showing the equivalent of a high risk for the area, never seen that before!

B87 It's always on day 10 or 12 lmao I don't know whether they are just mistaken or if they are hope-casting... raz.org.rain It would be silly if it hadn't been gone on for so long. At the moment, from where I'm standing, it's not silly but realistic.

In Absence of True Seasons I am reading the journals of Lord Byron and he calls it a "preposterous climate". And that was back in 1812.

An interesting study looking at the major AI models Vs the traditional ones during storm Ciaran. Do AI models produce better weather forecasts than physics-based models? A quantitative evaluation case study of Storm Ciarán WWW.NATURE.COM npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Do AI models produce better weather forecasts than physics-based models? A quantitative evaluation case study of Storm Ciarán

WYorksWeather it all depends now I think on the zonal winds and if a zonal winds recovery is predicted. At the moment our zonal winds are negative, i did see on world climate service x account that next month that we are meant to be having a negative AO/NAO combo. The way i see it is they are probably right.

Cloudy all day with zero sunshine, totally clear after sunset, couldn't make it up! My absolute fave phenomena Have to wonder, has someone done a deal with the devil to prolong the eternal rain & zero sun hell mixture to a permanent basis?

A bit to my surprise, the sun came out at times during the afternoon, although still interspersed with mainly light showers. The main issue was the beastly wind on the coast which pegged temperatures drastically, with the East Yorkshire coast not getting above 5C today (BBC radio weather forecast). More of the same tomorrow it seems.

This data is from my home weather station. Other than the cold spell in January, the temperature hasn't really changed that much over the 4 months period. With the end of April being much cooler than the general trend of the year, it's basically flatlined the whole thing. The beady eyed may notice the lack of air frost after January. Just a few days in February, and none since. I found it interesting that a well above average period has now been balanced with a below average spell, resulting in a relatively even temperature over a very long period. With 41mm rain recorded, this could be the first average or slightly below average month for a long time, depending on what happens in the last few days of April of course.

@Midlands Ice Age @Aleman

If its going to stay unsettled, then we need the low to move to the sw to bring in something a bit warmer. That way, the risk of thunderstorms will start to increase at this time of year. That will make things a lot more interesting.

Interesting ECM meteogram tonight. Unusually high confidence given the time horizon I would say. Suggestion of a continued cool or very cool pattern for the next few days, then high confidence in a brief switch to something more southerly and much warmer around the turn of the month, but then indications as we go further into May of a cooldown again back to close to average or a little below with more in the way of northerlies, albeit a long way off at this stage so could still change.

Scorcher it's been rubbish here the last few days, max temps of 10.2C, 9.7C, 8.0C and 9.6C, little sunshine, showers and a persistent raw wind (apart from yesterday when it was calm). 7 days of April left and we're already on 120% of normal rainfall, just 91 hours of sun and not a single clear day. Spring 2024 is making 2023 look good so far!

Idk if its just me, or does sunny days looks a lot fresher and clearer in Westerly or Southwesterly winds while a sunny Easterly looks more hazy (sunsets are glorious though). I notice this particularly in Feb-April and in Sep/Oct

In Absence of True Seasons I am generally a happy, everything's sunny, naive type person but I agree this spring has been so bad its beginning to get to me too in some ways and I think it's the light levels tbh. Never have I known such a period devoid of sunshine and was happy to take what sun we had at the weekend despite it coming with only 11C. This month up to now is reminding me of May 2022 which was anomalous for its warmth but with an actual lack of warm weather if that makes sense.. the daytime maxima have not warranted such a high CET. that had a northerly at the end too. Is it too naive to think we'll have the summer to follow

I drove over to Huddersfield this morning and it was noticeable how much colder it was there with this NE flow. The Pennines make a big difference in this sort of setup- it was noticeably warmer and brighter west of the Pennines. 13.3C at Rostherne which isn't far below average. Some were suggesting we wouldn't see double figures in this area this week. Only 8.8C at Bingley on the Yorkshire side of the Pennines and 10.2C at Wakefield.

Agree our bank holidays are too concentrated. Our national day should be one though,perhaps we should change it. decent day here, a fair bit of sunshine and most importantly dry

The last two GFS runs are playing with the idea of a waft of very warm/hot air to our south-east as we enter May but with low pressure nearby as always. The 12z shows the risk of the Atlantic sweeping it away and remaining cool whereas the 6z was more of a unstable scenario with warm air aloft on an easterly for a time, but the risk of cloud and rain also and perhaps thunder. Warm air surging northeastwards with already weak pressure in place is a recipe for low pressure so I expect unsettled conditions to persist into early May. Whether it's of the cool and breezy kind or warm and thundery kind is unknown. I wouldn't be surprised if a few hot runs pop up. What with the similarities to 1998 I've talked about I wouldn't be all that surprised if warmer weather arrives soon. Regardless, both low pressure dominated scenarios can be quite convective.

Ground finally dry enough to roll again this evening but the north wind is very cold.

I remember this day, it was very hot and sunny though we did miss the storms here. It was actually a memorable 10-11 day spell of weather generally, from the 17th to the 28th. It was a 3-section rinse and repeat (17th-19th, 20th-24th, 26th-28th) whereby it would heat up, go bang, cool down and then go again. It reminded me fondly of summer 1994 which was renowned for this type of scenario. We just don't seem to get this anymore.