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  2. You can be sure that now we are closing in on Summer Solstice the models will always be struggling due to their poor performance. They all struggle unless we are under a prolonged period of settled weather. So take any model output, whether long term or short term, settled or unsettled with a pinch of salt unless its showing in the 72 hours range. The middle of July when models start to become more reliable.
  3. I think it's a wood pigeon, flaps a lot but doesn't fly very well. Only one of my three ever plays football, still worth having the garden ready though. That big shower to my north yesterday afternoon dumped a decent amount of rain. The rainfall gauge at Abbey St Bathans recorded 15mm in an hour, that's quite a high rainfall rate:
  4. At last, a level headed post! I mentioned this the other day about a return to more typical kind of conditions, meaning the best of the conditions towards the S/SE. with more unsettled conditions towards the North. You simply can't keep getting countrywide warm and settled spells all the time. And again judging by some of the posts in here this morning, yet again summer is over on the 21st May! All because things aren't has rosey has this time last year! The weather here is yet again warm and sunny, yet Reading some posts on here it's dire! Personally I think it's not been a half bad spring, but it seems others think it's been a write off. I think it's time for some to lower there expectations, or perhaps emigrate to the Costa del sol....
  5. Great pic. Sky is a wonderful colour today to be fair. Oxshott a lovely place. I used to go dirt biking near there about 10 years ago. Doubt if the track still there. Knowle Hill think it was.
  6. I wonder if this is suggesting that this year June will be accompanied by a return of the westerlies which is a common occurance .... and heralds the end of the good conditions in the west and an improvement often for eastern and southern areas ?
  7. If this pattern continues beyond June, and we go end up with an average summer or poor one, could this then lead to a cooler winter? i know that’s not always the case, but that was he trend in the 2008-12 period.
  8. Dan James is close to joining Man U according to the Daily Mail they're saying an agreement is in place for a £15million deal
  9. Close-up of the Magnum, OK tornado yesterday - some bad language though Unfortunately damaged some property Thankfully no fatalities or serious injuries on what was SPC High Risk Day. Over-hyped High Risk? Well, it could have been a lot worse given the unusual situation of extreme wind shear and extreme instability forecast - but it appears some short-range models like the HRRR didn't perform too well and were a little too keen to develop numerous tornadic supercells over central Oklahoma than actually occurred - when obviously the warm sector atmosphere was more stable, apparently maybe because of weaker lapse rates created by stubborn cloud cover from early storms clearing north, so wasn't really a tornado outbreak in the high risk area across Oklahoma in the end, though NW Texas did see a fair few tornadoes drop - where the airmass was a lot more unstable near the dryline - thanks to good cloud clearance early on to allow maximum heating.
  10. I agree about poor May in its entirety - I feel there is often an isolated spell of a couple of days of warm southerly weather as a taster - and so for that has been missing ...
  11. I don’t think may 84 had any hot weather, although I vaguely recall a warm sunny spell in London, but I was only 8 at the time. That summer was a good one, so a poor May doesn’t always determine the following summer weather pattern. I still feel poor weather after mid June usually leads to a poor summer.
  12. Lovely clear skies today actually well forecast probs best day of week I would say ...
  13. 10.4c to the 20th 0.3c below the 61 to 90 average 0.7 below the 80 to 10 average __________________________________ Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th
  14. Looks like we are going to have to wait some time yet for the rain here in the south east. 18.4c now in the capital. Could be a warm one. Turning out to be a dry warm and sunny week.
  15. Easter Sunday still the warmest day of the year here - it’s quite unusual to have the top temp of April to be ahead of May - I guess it can still change but nothing showing yet that it will top 25c before the month is out ... often feel May should at least have a mini heat wave in it if we are to get a good summer so for me still not convinced that this summer will be anything other than ordinary..?
  16. Nights start drawing in soon, seriously though either the models are getting it wrong longer term or we have in for a "meh" summer. Doesn't help the lack of rain and water levels - would be different if we had hot sunshine but to just have cloud and cool north plunges and dry is the most useless type of weather that suits neither man or earth. Looking back at the model archive we had a few cool plunges in 92 that alternated between that and plumes (rollercoaster of up/down so if it was a few weeks of cool that would turn lead to few weeks of heat) At the moment we are stuck in the down, down repeat phase. You get front loaded summers and back loaded, worst case scenario we go from cool northerly to Atlantic weather and rain with no high pressure / or plumes at all.
  17. Yes, I feel it was a decent ending in the end with the characters perhaps ending up where they should have done. Jon was never bought up to be a king and was never comfortable with the idea. At least Drogon was seen heading east most likely taking her back to Valaryia, I suspected Dany would end up back in Valyria, albeit not deceased. I didn't really get the Sansa line though, the HBO series made so much more of Sansa's character than the books ever did - can't wait for the last 2 novels to be released to see Martin's conclusion.
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  19. Last occasions of an above April followed by a below average May in terms of the CET was 2015 and before that 2010 but it depends on how you compare it against their averages, May 2007 wasn't cool overall not with a CET of 11.9C, shows you how "warm" it was before the cooler end during the last week of that May.
  20. Yes you're right, not a particulary good comparison but this month will probably end up close to average in the end too.
  21. Who is doing their forecast graphics now? Piers Corbyn? Talk about sensationalistic. Wild fire, drought concerns, severe thunderstorms. Two other things to comment on. One, I hate that term "mild" used during summer. Two, how can most of Italy be described as seasonable and just to the north (including northern Italy) be described as heatwaves? What weather set-up could cause this?
  22. 2003 is another example of a warm April followed by a cool May. That wasn't a bad summer either!
  23. Hardly surprising given your location- in a lot of May warm spells the wind will be from the south or south east meaning you have a breeze off a still cold English channel.
  24. Yes we often record 25C here too in May. Even cooler Mays such as 2010 still manage it a lot of the time. The North West seems to be quite favoured in May- even easterlies have delivered 25C in May here.
  25. Will the US weather affect us? It's bonkers over there. It's currently snowing in 11 western states, and expected to continue for 3 days, with up to 20 inches predicted for Wyoming and 18 inches for Colorado. It's 4C in New Mexico while next door, in Houston, it's 26C in the middle of the night! They seem to be having swings from hot to cold and back, only more so than us. http://weatherstreet.com/states/u-s-snowfall-forecast.htm https://oilcity.news/associated-press/2019/05/20/spring-storm-expected-to-dump-snow-in-colorado-wyoming/
  26. I'm not going to sugar coat it, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean has taken a turn for the more unsettled and cooler longer term with the trough more dominant for longer and the azores high / ridge not as influential as it was on the previous run.
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