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  2. Here's my contribution to the discussion: The following is a preliminary long-range forecast for winter 2019-20, If it seems necessary, I will amend or update this forecast in mid-November. This appears likely to be a season where high energy weather events will be grappling with a fairly robust supply of colder air at high latitudes. Britain and Ireland can expect a very unsettled winter with frequent low pressure systems steered by a strong jet stream running a little south of its average position. This favours a split north-south outcome where the south is often on the milder side of the storm track getting strong southwest winds and rain, while the north is more open to snow, ice and easterly winds. The north-south divide may be enhanced by the likely appearance of strong blocking highs over eastern Scandinavia and western Russia. I don't think these are going to dominate the circulation but they will come into conflict with the zonal regime at times, forcing it to dive southeast around 5-10W and into France and the western Mediterranean. This may be another winter of heavy Alpine snowfalls and frequent severe cold spells in Germany and possibly Belgium and Netherlands into northeast France. Battleground conditions seem likely at times across southeast England into Wales and central to northern Ireland. Frequent snow events may occur in northern and even central England, and southern Scotland, also Northern Ireland and some adjacent parts of the Republic of Ireland. Some heavy precipitation is likely in this scenario, heavy rain in most cases in southern England, especially the southwest, and the southern third of Ireland (Munster and south Leinster). A set-up like this may not remain steady-state, but could fluctuate north-south bringing the milder conditions further north at times, while setting the battleground further south at other times. However, the tendency will be for temperatures to average closer to normal or above in the southwest, and below normal in Scotland. This pattern could evolve into a colder February or even March if the strong jet stream loses energy, then the blocking may be able to assert more control. North America can expect a rather harsh winter in general, with severe cold waves at times, colliding with an active storm track from Texas northeast towards Virginia and southeastern New England. There could therefore be heavier than average snowfalls in the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and inland Mid-Atlantic to northeastern states. A pattern like this would not rule out one or two coastal blizzards in the mix. The west will be dominated by persistent cold high pressure trapped in valleys, and coastal areas will have a fairly average winter with a lot of rain, low cloud and moderate southeast winds. Snow on western mountains will be generally a bit above average but might be twice normal in the southern Rockies and northern Arizona around Flagstaff. Drought will break during the winter for California. This may also be one of those winters where extreme cold moves south from Siberia into China, Korea and Japan.
  3. Yesterday
  4. The next 4 weeks in terms of polar heights feel like they are going to be very important in the grand scheme of things in terms of seeing how the predisposed troposphere which thus far has been primed towards a -NAO comes up again a record cold stratosphere trying to down-well to the surface- Its at this point you would expect based on history for the models to trend towards significant positivity on the AO & NAO & repeatedly the modelling does reflect that in the day 11-16 arena however as we move into the day 8-11 timeline the trends are opposite for the polar field & look more blocky. If we take todays ECM day 7 & below put the day 10 chart from 3 days ago you can see how the +AO has been overestimated with the vortex now modelled to be pushed out of the pole again- We can also see a wedge of higher heights over the pole in the mix now- So what was modelled to become a positive AO is now likely to be neutral at best. As we head out to day 10 on tonights ECM the heights point to a slightly negative AO This isn't really consistent with the coupling of the Trop > Strat & should these charts come to verify with a -NAO & -AO then this should give us more confidence as we head to winter that the seasonal models could be wrong. Also just a footnote on them- the enhanced azores high could be modelled correctly in terms of additional depth over winter however its location could be more vertical in lattitude with the icelandic low be positioned more Eastward - This would bring a whole different weather pattern to the UK away from mild & wet.... S PS its also worth noting that on October 13th the sea ice extent dropped back below the record low 'recovering' 2012 by 30k - The last 30 or so days have seen the deficit of about 600KM2 slowly reduce with a combination of low increases interspersed with occasional loss days so the growth curve has been very weak leading to the crossover day yesterday. Its unlikely ( based on current rate of growth & the +SSTA ) to catch back up in the very near future.....
  5. The control is at it again all be it deep in FL.
  6. Light rain off and on since later Monday afternoon Temp 9.5c
  7. A post moved to the banter/moans/chat thread as it's it falls in to one of those categories.
  8. Yes it is but nice to look at though,the 18z just doesn't get there in terms of potency but on the same track,we will have a look in the morning to see if it still picks this signal up.
  9. A pity that's in the unreliable range wouldn't mind that coming off thankyou.. I do have that little feeling something really special will happen this winter but we shall see love model watching in autumn and winter really is fascinating. Wonder if high pressure next week will last I have a feeling it will be transient in nature thus not staying dry for too long but atleast enjoy the dry weather while it may last then.
  10. The gfs 18z is starting to look like the 12z control at 228 hrs. lol,you just bet me to it Feb...
  11. What is it with the control run of late spawning charts worth dwelling over lets take a look at it it all happens around day ten(yes i know it's day ten sigh) deep trough in N Canada forces WAA ahead of it up the west side of Greenland(black arrow),also notice the arctic high(white circle) creating some reverse -AO(arctic oscillation)(orange arrow) forcing the trough west of Greenland south lets have a look at the animated sequence of both the 500mb height's and 850. ' will it set a trend?
  12. Oh well may have been a bust but a cool animation of the storms from France nevertheless.. They looked very impressive for a time atleast and that line of downpours looks cool too. Ignore that water noise haha.
  13. Well, I can report......nowt! Few spots of rain and that's it! Wind has picked up a little though and mild at 14.4c
  14. Another day with rain. Depressing how much we have had the past few months.
  15. Right on cue, fairly potent (for the time of year) this run came out with a few ens members to back it up.
  16. On the dotted line ....................
  17. Dry ,with fog for much of the day then rain arriving at tea,max 11 deg,min 7 deg
  18. Amber warning. Just looked at lightning maps the only one I trust for real time strikes. Its drier that the Sahara. Take a look for entertainment value. The excitement with sn amber warning for storms. Always a Kent clipper. Washed out to sea. Now my eyes head north looking for an outbreak of cold weather and possibly to the east of snow.
  19. Hekla Rumbles, Authorities Alerted - The Reykjavik Grapevine GRAPEVINE.IS Six tremors were recorded around the volcano Hekla last night, RÚV reports. While the tremors themselves were not particularly...
  20. Yes as per top 2 charts a displaced raging PV towards Siberia can led to some of the most potent cold this side of the pond.
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