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  2. Exactly. Couldn't agree more. Gary Neville said similar. Twitter MOBILE.TWITTER.COM
  3. Quite breezy here since last night, nothing but a bog standard gale for the most part but it did get up to about 50mph for a time around midnight.Plenty of showers too.
  4. Sleety mix has been happening a lot today. Also signs could be Snow from Wednesday onwards, Saturday especially keeps being shown as potential - even the Met office website is showing Snow for us then, which is odd at that range. Just rechecked Met now showing rain for Saturday, but never seen them show snow before at that range unless we already buried in the stuff.
  5. I wonder where BFTP (Fred) is?...didn't he call for a coldish December but currently looks like another bad call from him and lets be honest there's been a lot. It doesn't look like mild all the way with some Pm incursions and there might be some wintryness on the odd day at altitude looking at the latest ecm but nothing untoward. Today not in a mild air mass where I am but thermometer still showing 10.5c here in the south east so on that basis will certainly be milder than average over the next week in the south east.
  6. The GFS 12Z operational run most definitely hinting at a more settled spell towards Xmas. It does at this stage appear to be an outlier, personally I would say not as unsettled as conditions next week... A slight dip on those temps as well from the mean towards the big day. A positive sign, or just pie in the sky! I'm favouring a more settled spell away from the NW with perhaps some frosts towards that Xmas period.... Which at least would be more seasonal... Then the chase proper begins for the new year! Euphoric or devastated will be one of the words we feel come the end of this winter... Prozac at the ready... Enjoy the sun if you have it...
  7. Satellite image of Storm Atiyah taken at 12.35pm can be seen to the North West of Scotland.
  8. Down to 4c int he last heavy shower so trend is downwards in daylight hours.
  9. Heavy showers getting through to here too from the West. Just wish as many got through when cold enough for snow! Temp fell from 9.7C at midnight to 3.7C this morning. Now 4.8C so not surprised that the higher hills are white again.
  10. I will now Post up my findings, for the Januaries and Februaries of DECADE 2 (1950-1960) (JANUARY) G.H.D. G.B.I. U.K.MEAN 1951 0 (0.54) 2.9c 1952 6 (0.34) 1.7c 1953 1 (0.01) 3.2c 1954 7 (0.04) 2.6c 1955 7 +1.02 1.8c 1956 3 +0.34 2.7c 1957 0 (1.60) 4.5c 1958 10 +0.62 2.8c 1959 18 +1.79 0.9c 1960 18 +1.39 3.1c G.H.D. = Greenland High Day. G.B.I. = Greenland Blocking Index. Figures in Brackets. = Minus Figures. (FEBRUARY) G.H.D. G.B.I. U.K.MEAN 1951 3 (0.68) 2.6c 1952 6 +0.75 2.8c 1953 3 +0.19 3.8c 1954 2 (0.52) 1.8c 1955 10 +1.15 0.3c 1956 10 +0.70 (0.2c) 1957 11 +1.12 3.9c 1958 14 +1.45 3.5c 1959 0 (1.56) 3.8c 1960 15 +1.88 2.7c G.H.D. = Greenland High Day. G.B.I. = Greenland Blocking Index. Figures in Brackets. = Minus Figures. In a short while, I will Post up some Tables, Synoptic Chart "thumbnails" and comments, about my findings for, Decade 2 (1950-1960). Regards, Tom.
  11. Today's multimodel graphs. Midday temperature trend staying closely the same for most of next week between 7c and 9c. The air pressure dropping on Wednesday as the models today grow more confident of a deep area of low pressure on Friday. The trend is still there from yesterday for pressure to rise into next weekend.
  12. It's a good Question however I don't think a 1 day slush fess is going to satisfy the Majority of cold lovers in here. C.S
  13. I touched on this the other day. It seems that since 2016, the PV in October and November has looked favourable for a cold early winter. However, like you say, come the end of November, the PV has come to life and the AO/NAO switched to a positive phase!
  14. The first red warning since the beast from the east .Expect some damage.
  15. Proper blowy here in Braemar, loads of rain through the night. Glad I managed to reseal my rooflight last week or it would have been dripping all night.some snow on the tops of the hills round about and the wind has gotten much colder.10 mins outside and that was enough for me. 3 degrees now but feels much colder. We open again on Friday, here's hoping for snow to bring in the skiers. Drove to oban and back yesterday and the roads were terrible, so much water. ...and potholes..
  16. I’m also a little bit worried for my Christmas trip to Chamonix with these unusual southerlies wafting up into Europe and a rising 850 line. Plenty of time for change of course but having done tio Christmas trips to Poland where it was milder there than here, I thought the mountains would be a fairly safe snowy bet.
  17. Wow what a night ! Lashing rain and wind , followed by hefty lashing rain for most of the day so far ! outlook seems very windy and Tuesday is just grim (maybe some snow?) Lovely to be back .
  18. It's been a crap start to winter in Bratislava. About 1cm of snow on Monday which barely lasted until the next day. There was proper snow on the nearby hills all week but it must be melting now. A chance of more snow on Thursday at least. I'm more concerned about my trip to Ukraine on the 18th - it's been toasty there recently by their standards.
  19. The question I have is why are we all looking into deep fi for changes etc when we all no that small changes early on will completely change the run, very little if any fi actually turn out to be correct. All a complete waste of time if you ask me. Also saying looking towards new year or feb for cold... I mean come on man it’s early December for crying out loud. We may not get lovely northern blocking at all this winter but that doesn’t mean we won’t get cold snaps with snow. things chop and change hourly let alone in 300 odd hours
  20. Today
  21. California 'bomb cyclone': Mega 75ft wave triggered off California by massive 100mph storm https://news.sky.com/story/california-bomb-cyclone-mega-75ft-wave-triggered-off-california-by-massive-100mph-storm-11881274
  22. Met Éireann have issued a status red for Kerry from 4pm to 7pm Storm Atiyah: West to southwest winds veering northwest will reach mean speeds in excess of 80km/h with gusts in excess of 130km/h for a time this evening. Extreme caution is advised, especially near the coast and on high ground. Due to a combination of high seas and storm surge there is a possibility of coastal flooding. Issued: Sunday 08 December 2019 10:00 Valid from: Sunday 08 December 2019 16:00 to Sunday 08 December 2019 19:00 https://www.met.ie/#
  23. RESEARCH INTO THE DEMISE OF THE GREENLAND HIGH IN WINTER I have just finished researching DECADE 2 (1950 - 1960), into the correlation (if any) between, High Pressure over Greenland in the 3 Winter Months and Cold, Wintry Weather, affecting the U.K., in those Months. I will now Post up my findings, for the Decembers, Januaries and Februaries of Decade 2 (1950 - 1960). Below, is a quote from an earlier Post, explaining the basis of my "research". "It's a very crude "Painting by Numbers" look at the correlation between "true heights" (Yellow/Green), over the Greenland Plateau at the 500hPa level (about 5,500 Metres (18,000 Feet) A.S.L.), around halfway up in the Atmosphere, and the likelihood of Cold, Wintry Weather reaching the U.K. I will count every Day during the 3 Months of Winter (Dec,Jan,Feb) and log each Day when the Majority of Greenland was covered in Yellow/Green 500hPa heights. I will call these Days, "Greenland High Days" (G.H.D's) and log each one". Below, is a link to NOAA's Greenland Blocking Index (G.B.I), site: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/GBI_UL/ DECADE 2 (1950-1960) (DECEMBERS) G.H.D. G.B.I. U.K.MEAN 1950 13 +1.65 0.7c 1951 0 (1.38) 4.7c 1952 11 +1.75 2.5c 1953 0 (1.57) 6.1c 1954 0 (0.39) 5.6c 1955 0 +0.46 4.5c 1956 5 (0.97) 5.2c 1957 0 (0.37) 3.9c 1958 7 +0.63 3.8c 1959 3 (0.34) 4.8c G.H.D. = Greenland High Day. G.B.I. = Greenland Blocking Index. Figures in Brackets. = Minus Figures. In a short while. I will Post up my findings for the Januaries and Februaries, of Decade 2 (1951-1960). Regards, Tom.
  24. It does seem the weather patterns have changed a bit in the last 5 or 6 years and for this reason winter runs from mid December to mid March.December 2010 was truly exceptional for cold here in Kent and am confident will not be surpassed for cold and snow in my lifetime but since then decembers do seem to have developed a milder theme.On the other side of the coin the first 2 weeks of March have gone more the opposite way and have given quite a few cold snaps/spells with the BFTE only last year proof of that.Just my 2 bobs worth and a bit IMBY pov as I appreciate in Scotland and the hillier parts of the North offer far greater potential for cold and snow from late November to late March.
  25. I find it astonishing that October and November promised developing cold to our shores with reflective negative AO and NAO figures and the PV in disarray. It seems as though a virtual switch was pressed on December 1st which almost immediately resulted in PV reformation, AO and NAO turning positive and the daily ensembles to trend increasingly milder. i looked at the same ensembles last year and its almost identical. Coincidence ?
  26. The GEFS 6z mean longer term is less inclined to build heights from the south compared to the 0z..otherwise it's similar with a very unsettled outlook and cold enough at times for wintry precipitation, especially across northern hills / mountains..mid month is again most favoured for snow opportunities which are not confined to hills further north!!
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